Post on 21-Mar-2017
CRIMETIMEEXPLORING AND FORECASTING CRIME RATES IN NYC
MICHAEL HARMON, PH.D.INSIGHT DATA SCIENCE
OVERVIEW
▸ Insight Data Science Fellowship Project▸ 3 weeks to develop a data web application▸ Answer the question:
• Can we create a data driven strategy to reduce crime?
• NYC Open Data: 10 years of crime data (2006 - 2015).
DATA SOURCES
NYC OPEN DATA:
ARE THERE PATTERNS WITHIN NEIGHBORHOODS OR TRENDS OVER TIME?
CAN WE BUILD A PREDICTIVE MODEL USING THIS HISTORICAL DATA?
CRIME PATTERNS IN NEIGHBORHOODS
ASSAULTS IN 2015 BY POLCE PRECINCT LARCENY IN 2015 BY POLCE PRECINCT
• Different crimes impact different crimes neighborhoods.• Are there historical patterns and trends of crimes within the neighborhoods?
HISTORICAL PATTERNS AND TRENDS
▸ Forecasting crime rates on a neighborhoods level helps police distribute their resources better and combat crime effectively.
▸ Goal: Build web app to forecast crime rates on a neighborhood level.
WWW.CRIMETIME.ONLINE
•COLLECTED, CLEANED, AND ANALYZED 10 YEARS OF CRIME DATA.•DATA STORED IN SQLITE DATABASE FOR FLEXIBILITY AND SPEED.•FORECASTING USING SEASONAL ARIMA IN PYTHON.•TRAINED ON FIRST 8 YEARS, VALIDATED ON 2014, TESTED ON 2015.•GRID SEARCH FOR SEASONAL ARIMA PARAMETERS .
WWW.CRIMETIME.ONLINE
•BUILT OUT THE FRONT END USING FLASK, HTML, AND CSS.•DEPLOYED TO AMAZON WEB SERVICES.•OBJECT ORIENTED APPROACH•FULLY TESTED USING PYTEST.•EXTENSIVE DOCUMENTATION WITH SPHINX.
ABOUT ME
MICHAEL HARMON▸ Ph.D. Computational Applied Math from Univ. of
Texas▸ Developed C++ code simulate solar cells and
optimize the cell design.▸ Former competitor and coach in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu.▸ More info: michael-harmon.com