Post on 04-Feb-2021
denniswuTypewriter
denniswuTypewriterEditor:Frankie WongTel: (852) 2277 6765Email: foreignstock@phillip.com.hk
denniswuTypewriter
THAILAND EQUITY RESEARCH
Page | 1 | PHILLIP SECURITIES (THAILAND)
AP (Thailand) 4QFY15 profit seen up 9% y‐y THAILAND | SET | PROP | COMPANY PREVIEW BLOOMBERG AP TB l REUTERS AP.BK 4QFY15 profit seen at Bt5.9bn, up 9% y‐y We expect AP to report 4QFY15 profit of Bt5.9bn, up 9% y‐y driven largely by tight operating expense controls. In our forecast, we assume quarterly revenue came in at Bt5.9bn, flat y‐y as SDH/TH revenue hit Bt4.1bn on the back of a 13% y‐y rise in SDH/TH presales and condo revenue arrived at Bt1.8bn driven by further revenue recongition from Rhythm Sathorn, Life Ratchadapisek and Aspire Sukhumvit 48. Gross margin tended to have held steady as a mix of revenue from condo projects in 4QFY15 was similar to 4QFY14. Normally condo margins were higher than SDH/TH margins. SG&A expenses as a percentage of sales likely drifted lower. Loss from its condo JV with Mitsubishi Estate Group appeared to have been tempered by additional stream of income from project and sales management for JV projects. For the whole of FY15, we slash our profit view for AP by 2% to Bt2.6bn, flat y‐y to reflect expectations of a 5% miss in full‐year revenue, which outweighs the positive effect of better‐than‐expected controls on SG&A expenses. Our forecast also puts FY15 DPS at Bt0.29/share. Brisk SDH/TH presales momentum and return to profitabiltiy at JV set to drive FY16 profit up 12% despite little backlog In our view, there remains room for AP to return to profit growth this year despite a meager amount of backlog carried forward to be booked as revenue this year at only Bt9bn, of which Bt6.7bn came from condo projects and the rest Bt2.3bn from SDH/TH projects. We expect AP to achieve FY16 revenue of Bt23.1bn, up 6% y‐y. To meet the target, the rest, in addition to the above backlog, should come from 1. SDH/TH revenue: Given the return to 13% growth in FY15 SDH/TH presales despite the
backdrop of unfavorable market conditions, we believe in AP’s potential to drive SDH/TH presales growth this year as it plans to boost the value of new SDH/TH project launches to Bt14.08bn. We estimate its FY16 SDH/TH presales will rise 10% y‐y to Bt14.5bn, of which Bt12.6bn would be booked as revenue this year.
2. Sales of existing condo inventories: Even though we remain concerned about overall condo market conditions this year, we expect AP to achieve FY16 condo revenue of up to Bt8.2bn. Of the total, Bt6.7bn has already been covered by backlog. To meet the target, AP needs to generate another Bt2.5bn, which would not be a tall order, in our view. AP plans to realize revenues from the following two condo projects ready for transfer this year: (i) Aspire Ngamwongwan and (ii) Aspire Rattanathibet 2. Both projects currently have the remaining sales value of Bt4.4bn. Due to its marketing relaunch plan, we expect AP to generate presales and realize revenue of around Bt2bn from the above projects. The remaining Bt500mn should come from sales of existing condo inventories from other projects.
Margins tend to hold steady but AP is expected to see its first profit from JV with Mitsubishi Real Estate this year from last year’s loss. Our forecast suggests AP will deliver 12% y‐y profit growth this year. ‘BUY’ rating with Bt7.30/share target price Given that much of the growth would largely depend on SDH/TH presales in FY16, we believe the room for growth still exists for AP in view of brisk SDH/TH presales momentum. We retain a ‘BUY’ call on AP shares with a Bt7.30/share target price.
Ref. No.: CO2016_0138
Closing Price(Bt) 5.70Target Price(Bt) 7.30 (+33.76%)
COMPANY DATA
O/S Shares (mn) : 3,146 Market Cap. (Btmn) :Market Cap. (USDmn) :52‐WK Hi/Lo (Bt) : 7.8/4.983M Average Daily T/O (mn) : 5.82Par Value (Bt) : 1.00
MAJOR SHAREHOLDERS (%)
1. Mr. Anupong Asavapokin 21.32. Thai NVDR Co.,Ltd. 12.23. NORTRUST NOMINEES LTD‐CL AC 7.0
PRICE PERFORMANCE (%)
1MTH 3MTH 1YRABS 4% ‐3% ‐15%REL TO SET INDEX 0% 4% 6%
PRICE VS SET INDEX
Source: Bloomberg, PSR
KEY FINANCIALS
FYE Dec FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17ESales(Btmn) 23,197 22,448 23,758 24,633Net Profit(Btmn) 2,615 2,613 2,912 3,492EPS (Bt) 0.83 0.83 0.93 1.11P/E (X) 6.9 6.9 6.2 5.1BVPS (Bt) 4.95 5.52 6.19 7.00P/B (X) 1.2 1.0 0.9 0.8DPS (Bt) 0.28 0.29 0.32 0.39Dividend Yield (%) 4.9 5.1 5.7 6.8ROE (%) 17.52 15.60 15.58 16.62Debt/Equity (X) 1.81 1.42 1.15 0.72
Source: Company, PSR Est.**Multiples and yields are based on latest closing price
VALUATION METHOD
P/E'16 (8x)
Danai Tunyaphisitchai, CFACapital Market Investment Analyst # 2375Tel: 66 2 635 1700 # 481
16 February 2016
17,932 503
13 May 2015
Buy (Maintain)
0246810
Feb‐13 Feb‐14 Feb‐15 Feb‐16
AP TB EQUITY SETI (rebased)
THAILAND EQUITY RESEARCH
PHILLIP SECURITIESS (THAILAND) | 2 | P a g e
Corporate Governance ‐2015
ADVANC BAFS BCP BIGC BTS CK CPN DRT DTAC DTCEASTW EGCO GRAMMY HANA HMPRO INTUCH IRPC IVL KBANK KCEKKP KTB LHBANK LPN MCOT MINT MONO NKI PHOL PPSPS PSL PTT PTTEP PTTGC QTC RATCH ROBINS SAMART SAMTELSAT SC SCB SCC SE‐ED SIM SNC SPALI THCOM TISCOTKT TMB TOP VGI WACOAL
AAV ACAP AGE AHC AKP AMATA ANAN AOT APCS ARIPASIMAR ASK ASP BANPU BAY BBL BDMS BECL BKI BLABMCL BOL BROOK BWG CENTEL CFRESH CHO CIMBT CM CNTCOL CPF CPI CSL DCC DELTA DEMCO ECF EE ERWGBX GC GFPT GLOBAL GUNKUL HEMRAJ HOTPOT HYDRO ICC ICHIINET IRC KSL KTC LANNA LH LOXLEY LRH MACO MBKMC MEGA MFEC NBC NCH NINE NSI NTV OCC OGCOISHI OTO PAP PDI PE PG PJW PM PPP PRPRANDA PREB PT PTG Q‐CON QH RS S & J SABINA SAMCOSCG SEAFCO SFP SIAM SINGER SIS SITHAI SMK SMPC SMTSNP SPI SSF SSI SSSC SST STA STEC SVI SWCSYMC SYNTEC TASCO TBSP TCAP TF TGCI THAI THANA THANITHIP THRE THREL TICON TIP TIPCO TK TKS TMI TMILLTMT TNDT TNITY TNL TOG TPC TPCORP TRC TRU TRUETSC TSTE TSTH TTA TTCL TTW TU TVD TVO TWFPTWS UAC UT UV VNT WAVE WINNER YUASA ZMICO
2S AEC AEONTS AF AH AIRA AIT AJ AKR AMANAHAMARIN AP APCO AQUA AS ASIA AUCT AYUD BA BEAUTYBEC BFIT BH BIG BJC BJCHI BKD BTNC CBG CGDCHG CHOW CI CITY CKP CNS CPALL CPL CSC CSPCSS CTW DNA EARTH EASON ECL EFORL ESSO FE FIREFOCUS FORTH FPI FSMART FSS FVC GCAP GENCO GL GLANDGLOW GOLD GYT HTC HTECH IEC IFEC IFS IHL IRCPITD JSP JTS JUBILE KASET KBS KCAR KGI KKC KTISKWC KYE L&E LALIN LHK LIT LIVE LST M MAJORMAKRO MATCH MATI MBKET M‐CHAI MFC MILL MJD MK MODERNMOONG MPG MSC MTI MTLS NC NOK NUSA NWR NYTOCEAN PACE PATO PB PCA PCSGH PDG PF PICO PLPLANB PLAT PPM PRG PRIN PSTC PTL PYLON QLT RCIRCL RICHY RML RPC S SALEE SAPPE SAWAD SCCC SCNSCP SEAOIL SIRI SKR SMG SOLAR SORKON SPA SPC SPCGSPPT SPVI SRICHA SSC STANLY STPI SUC SUSCO SUTHA SYNEXTAE TAKUNI TCC TCCC TCJ TEAM TFD TFI TIC TIWTLUXE TMC TMD TOPP TPCH TPIPL TRT TSE TSR UMIUP UPF UPOIC UREKA UWC VIBHA VIH VPO WHA WINXO
Score Range
THAILAND EQUITY RESEARCH
PHILLIP SECURITIESS (THAILAND) | 3 | P a g e
Anti‐corruption indicators
Level 5 (Extended)BCP CPN GYT PE PM PPP PT PTT PTTGC SAT sccTHANI TOP
Level 4 (Certified) DCC DTC DRT EASTW ECL EGCO ERW FSS GCAP HANA HTCINTUCH IRPC IVL KBANK KCE KGI KKP KTB LANNA LHBANK MTINKI PSL PTG PTTEP SABINA SCB SNC SNP SSF SSSC TCAP
THCOM TISCO TMB TMD TNITY TOG
Level 3 (Established)
Level 3A: Declaration to join CAC, etcABC ACAP ADVANC AGE AH AMANAH ANAN AP APCS APURE ASASIA ASIAN ASIMAR BIGC BROOK BTS BWG CEN CENTEL CFRESH CHARANCHO CHOTI CM CNT COL CPF CPI CPL DELTA DEMCO DIMETDNA DTAC EA ECF EE EVER FPI GBX GC GFPT GLOWHMPRO HOTPOT ICC ICHI IFEC INOX INSURE IRC JAS JTS JUBILEKC KTC KYE LHK LPN LRH MAKRO MC MCOT MFC MFECMINT MJD MONO MOONG NBC MSC NDR NINE NMG NSI NTVOGC PACE PCSGH PDI PG PHOL PLAT PPS PR PRANDA PREBPS QLT RATCH RML ROBINS ROJNA RWI SAMCO SCCC SCG SEAOILSE‐ED SENA SINGER SITHAI SMK SMPC SPALI SPC SPCG SPI SRICHASSI STANLY SUPER SVI SYMC SYNEX SYNTEC TASCO TCMC TFI THAITHRE THREL TICON TKT TLUXE TMILL TMT TNL TPCORP TSTE TSTH
TTCL TU TVI UOBKH UREKA VGI VNT WACOAL WHA ZMICO
Level 3B: Organization's statement but no declaration to join CAC, etcAAV AHC AIT AKR ARROW ASK BA BDMS BEC BJCHI BUICGH CHG CHOW CIG CITY CK CKP COLOR CWT EARTH EASONEPG F&D FANCY FIRE FMT FORTH GENCO GL GOLD GPSC GRAMMYHYDRO IRCP IT JCT KCM KWC LH LIT LOXLEY MACO MANRINMATI MODERN MSC NOBLE NOK NPK NUSA OISHI OTO PAF PAPPATO PF PJW PLANB PLE POLAR PRG PTL Q‐CON QTC RCIS11 SALEE SAM SAMART SAMTEL SAPPE SC SCP SFP SIM SLPSMT SPA SPORT SSC SST STEC STPI SUC SUTHA SVI TTBSP TAE TCC TFD TGCI TGPRO THANA THIP TIW TK TMWTNDT TOPP TPC TPCH TPIPL TSR TT TYCN UAC UBIS UECUMI UP UPF UT UV VPO WAVE WINNER YUASA
Level 2 (Declared)2S ABICO AF AKP AMARIN AMATA AOT APCO AYUD BEAUTY BFITBH BKD BLAND BTNC CCP CI CSR CSS EFORL EPCO FEFNS FVC GEL GLOBAL HEMRAJ IEC IFS INET JUTHA KASET KCARKKC KSL L&E LALIN LTX M MALEE MBK MBKET MEGA MKMPG MTLS NCH NCL NPP OCC OCEAN PB PCA PRINC QHROCK RPC S & J SGP SIAM SIS SKR SMG SMIT SORKON SUSCOTAKUNI TEAM TF TIC TIP TIPCO TMC TMI TPP TRT TRUTRUE TSC TSI TTW TVD TVO UKEM UNIQ UWC VNG WIIKWIN XO
Level 1 (Committed)ACD AEONTS AFC AIRA AJ ALUCON AMC AQUA ARIP AUCT BAT‐3KBIG BJC BOL BRR BSBM CBG CCET CCN CGD CMR CPHCSC CSP CTW DCON DRACO DSGT DTCI E EMC ESSO FOCUSFSMART GIFT GLAND GRAND GUNKUL HFT HTECH ILINK ITD JSP IHLKDH KTIS KTP LEE LST MAJOR MAX M‐CHAI MDX MIDA MATCHML MPIC NC NEP NNCL OHTL PICO PK PL PPM NWRPRAKIT PRECHA PRIN PSTC RAM RICH RS SANKO SAUCE SAWAD PYLONSAWANG SCN SEAFCO SHANG SIRI SMART SMM SOLAR SPACK SPG SFSPPT SPVI STAR SVH SVOA SWC TAPAC TC TCCC TCJ STATCOAT TKS TNH TNPC TPA TPAC TPOLY TRC TRUBB TSE TTATTI TTL TTTM TWP TWZ U UMS UPA UPOIC UVAN UTPVARO VI VIBHA VIH VTE WG
Data not available/No policyA ACC AJD AQ BCH BGT BROCK BSM BTC CHUO CRANECPR EIC FER JMART JMT KAMART KBS KIAT LDC MCS METCOMBAX NEW NEWS NYT PAE PDG PERM PMTA RCL RICHY ROHPOST S SIMAT TCB TR TSF TVT
THAILAND EQUITY RESEARCH
PHILLIP SECURITIESS (THAILAND) | 4 | P a g e
Anti‐corruption indicators
Level 5 : Extended
Anti‐corruption policies extend to business partners, dealers, and distributors.
Level 4 : Certified
Anti‐corruption policies can be engaged by audit committee and auditors approved by the SEC.
Anti‐corruption policies are certified by CAC and independent assurance providers.
Level 3 : Established
Anti‐corruption corruption policies cover anti‐bribery, and communications and educating all employees anti‐corruption policies.
Level 3A Public out statement to join CAC, etc.
Level 3B Declare statement and organization’s anti‐corruption policies but no intention to join CAC, etc.
Level 2 : Declared
Declare statement to participate CAC against corruption.
Level 1 : Committed
Organization and Board of Directors’ statements against corruption and not getting involve in any malpractices.
AssessmentAnti‐corruption progress indicator for listed companies is a part of SEC’s commitment to create sustainability in anti‐corruption and to become a role model to any
related business. The progress indicators comprise of five levels: 1) Committed, 2) Declared, 3) Established, 4) Certified, and 5) Extended. These indicators will
encourage listed firms to formulate anti‐corruption policies to opt out of corruption, and investors can determine their investment based on anti‐corruption indicator
or avoid investment in listed firms that could get involve in corruption.
THAILAND EQUITY RESEARCH
PHILLIP SECURITIESS (THAILAND) | 5 | P a g e
Industry Group Name Sector Name Sector IndexAgro & Food Industry[AGRO] Agribusiness AGRI
Food & Beverage FOODConsumer Products[CONSUMP] Fashion FASHION
Home & Office Products HOMEPersonal Products & Pharmaceuticals PERSON
Financials [FINCIAL] Banking BANKFinance & Securities FINInsurance INSUR
Industrials [INDUS] Automotive AUTOIndustrial Materials & Machinery IMMPackaging PKGPaper & Printing Materials PAPERPetrochemicals & Chemicals PETROSteel STEEL
Property & Construction[PROPCON] Construction Materials CONMATConstruction Services CONS Property Development PROPProperty Fund & REITs PF&REIT
Resources [RESOURC] Energy & Util ities ENERGMining MINE
Services [SERVICE] Commerce COMMMedia & Publishing MEDIAHealth Care Services HELTHTourism & Leisure TOURISMProfessional Services PROFTransportation & Logistics TRANS
Technology [TECH] Electronic Components ETRONInformation & Communication Technology ICT
PSR Rating SystemCapital Gain Recommendation> 15% BUY> 5% ‐ 15% ACCUMULATE / TRADING BUY> 0% ‐ 5% NEUTRAL0
22776846