Libertad Económica y Crecimiento Económico Mundial: Evidencia e Implicaciones

por

Julio H. Cole, Ph.D.

UFM — Guatemala

Tasas de Crecimiento (%), PIB per cápita, 106 Países, 1980-99. 

0

4

8

12

16

-4 -2 0 2 4 6 8

Tasas de Crecimiento Poblacional (% anual), 106 Países, 1980-99. 

0

4

8

12

16

0 1 2 3 4

POPGROWTHAnnual rate of population growth (%)106 countries (1980-99)

Mean 1.866899Median 2.062509Maximum 4.169874Minimum -0.433773Std. Dev. 1.055666Skewness -0.307580Kurtosis 2.227420

Jarque-Bera 4.307584Probability 0.116043

Fertilidad y Crecimiento Poblacional, 106 Países, 1980-99. 

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

0 2 4 6 8

FERTIL

PO

PG

RO

WT

H

Fertilidad y PIB per cápita en 1980, 106 Países 

0

2

4

6

8

0 5000 10000 15000

GDP80

FE

RT

IL

Fertilidad y Tasa de Crecimiento PIB per cápita, 106 Países, 1980-99 

-5

0

5

10

0 2 4 6 8

FERTIL

GR

OW

TH

Libertad Económica, Ingreso per cápita, y Crecimiento Económico 

 

Países Ordenados PIB per cápita Tasa de Crecimiento (%)según índice EFW 2000 PPP (us$) PIB per cápita, 1990-2000

Quintil inferor $2,556 –0.85

4º quintil $4,365 1.44

3er quintil $6,235 1.13

2o quintil $12,390 1.57

Quintil superior $23,450 2.56

 Fuente: Gwartney et al. (2002), p. 20, Exhibits 5 and 8.

PIB per cápita según Latitud, 1995.

Modelo Neo-Clásico de Crecimiento

Solow (1956)Barro (1991), Mankiw, Romer & Weil (1992)

• Ingreso Inicial (“efecto convergencia”) (–)

• Tasa de Inversión (INV/GDP) (+)

• Crecimiento Demográfico (–)

• Capital Humano (+)

Geografía y Crecimiento Económico

Gallup, Sachs & Mellinger (1999), Sachs (2000)

• TROPICAR = proporción del territorio ubicado en regiones tropicales

• POP100KM = proporción de la población que vive a menos de 100 kilómetros del mar

• LOGDIST = log de distancia (aérea) respecto de Nueva York, Rotterdam o Tokio

Regresiones — Variables Explicativas

LOGGDP80 = log de PIB per cápita en 1980 (PPA)

INV = Inversión como % de PIB, promedio 1980-99

FERTIL = Tasa de Fertilidad, promedio1980-99

DSCH15 = Cambio en “años promedio de escolaridad de población adulta (15 años o más),” 1980-95 (Barro & Lee, 2001)

DFEMSCH15 = Cambio en “años promedio de escolaridad para población femenina (15 años o más),” 1980-95

DMALESCH15 = Cambio en “años promedio de escolaridad para población masculina (15 años o más),” 1980-95

Regresiones — Variables Explicativas (cont.)

EFW = Indice de Libertad Económica (promedio de los valores para 1980, 1985, 1990 and 1995)

DEFW = Cambio en el índice EFW entre 1980 y 1995

TROPICAR = proporción del territorio ubicado en regiones tropicales

POP100KM = proporción de la población que vive a menos de 100 kilómetros del mar

LOGDIST = log de distancia (aérea) respecto de Nueva York, Rotterdam o Tokio

Regression Number: [1] [2] [3] [4] [5] [6]

Explanatory variables:

Constant 14.604[5.559]

LOGGDP80 -1.433[-5.831]

INV 0.076[3.035]

FERTIL -1.203[-7.859]

DSCH15 0.531

[2.868]

DMALESCH15

DFEMSCH15

EFW

DEFW

Adjusted R-squared 0.587N 90White test (chi-square) 5.03d.f. for White test 14prob-value 0.985

Dependent Variable: Average annual rate of growth (%), real per capita GDP, 1980-99.

[numbers in parentheses are t-values of the estimated coefficients]

Regression Number: [1] [2] [3] [4] [5] [6]

Explanatory variables:

Constant 14.604 14.436[5.559] [5.517]

LOGGDP80 -1.433 -1.422[-5.831] [-5.813]

INV 0.076 0.083[3.035] [3.271]

FERTIL -1.203 -1.204[-7.859] [-7.905]

DSCH15 0.531

[2.868]

DMALESCH15 0.59

[2.324]

DFEMSCH15 -0.09

[-0.328]

EFW

DEFW

Adjusted R-squared 0.587 0.591N 90 90White test (chi-square) 5.03 29.622d.f. for White test 14 20prob-value 0.985 0.076

Dependent Variable: Average annual rate of growth (%), real per capita GDP, 1980-99.

[numbers in parentheses are t-values of the estimated coefficients]

Regression Number: [1] [2] [3] [4] [5] [6]

Explanatory variables:

Constant 14.604 14.436 14.498[5.559] [5.517] [5.585]

LOGGDP80 -1.433 -1.422 -1.429[-5.831] [-5.813] [-5.892]

INV 0.076 0.083 0.081[3.035] [3.271] [3.309]

FERTIL -1.203 -1.204 -1.205[-7.859] [-7.905] [-7.957]

DSCH15 0.531

[2.868]

DMALESCH15 0.59 0.527

[2.324] [3.193]

DFEMSCH15 -0.09

[-0.328]

EFW

DEFW

Adjusted R-squared 0.587 0.591 0.596N 90 90 90White test (chi-square) 5.03 29.622 9.317d.f. for White test 14 20 14prob-value 0.985 0.076 0.81

Dependent Variable: Average annual rate of growth (%), real per capita GDP, 1980-99.

[numbers in parentheses are t-values of the estimated coefficients]

Regression Number: [1] [2] [3] [4] [5] [6]

Explanatory variables:

Constant 14.604 14.436 14.498 12.945[5.559] [5.517] [5.585] [4.720]

LOGGDP80 -1.433 -1.422 -1.429 -1.729[-5.831] [-5.813] [-5.892] [-6.015]

INV 0.076 0.083 0.081 0.091[3.035] [3.271] [3.309] [2.898]

FERTIL -1.203 -1.204 -1.205 -1.093[-7.859] [-7.905] [-7.957] [-6.971]

DSCH15 0.531

[2.868]

DMALESCH15 0.59 0.527 0.551

[2.324] [3.193] [2.963]

DFEMSCH15 -0.09

[-0.328]

EFW 0.599

[3.479]

DEFW

Adjusted R-squared 0.587 0.591 0.596 0.685N 90 90 90 85White test (chi-square) 5.03 29.622 9.317 35.94d.f. for White test 14 20 14 20prob-value 0.985 0.076 0.81 0.016

Dependent Variable: Average annual rate of growth (%), real per capita GDP, 1980-99.

[numbers in parentheses are t-values of the estimated coefficients]

Regression Number: [1] [2] [3] [4] [5] [6]

Explanatory variables:

Constant 14.604 14.436 14.498 12.945 11.669[5.559] [5.517] [5.585] [4.720] [4.996]

LOGGDP80 -1.433 -1.422 -1.429 -1.729 -1.752[-5.831] [-5.813] [-5.892] [-6.015] [-8.007]

INV 0.076 0.083 0.081 0.091 0.084[3.035] [3.271] [3.309] [2.898] [3.288]

FERTIL -1.203 -1.204 -1.205 -1.093 -1.002[-7.859] [-7.905] [-7.957] [-6.971] [-7.251]

DSCH15 0.531

[2.868]

DMALESCH15 0.59 0.527 0.551 0.521

[2.324] [3.193] [2.963] [3.649]

DFEMSCH15 -0.09

[-0.328]

EFW 0.599 0.761

[3.479] [5.490]

DEFW 0.461

[3.616]Adjusted R-squared 0.587 0.591 0.596 0.685 0.726N 90 90 90 85 85White test (chi-square) 5.03 29.622 9.317 35.94 38.83d.f. for White test 14 20 14 20 27prob-value 0.985 0.076 0.81 0.016 0.066

Dependent Variable: Average annual rate of growth (%), real per capita GDP, 1980-99.

[numbers in parentheses are t-values of the estimated coefficients]

Regression Number: [1] [2] [3] [4] [5] [6]

Explanatory variables:

Constant 14.604 14.436 14.498 12.945 11.669 13.611[5.559] [5.517] [5.585] [4.720] [4.996] [5.039]

LOGGDP80 -1.433 -1.422 -1.429 -1.729 -1.752 -1.423[-5.831] [-5.813] [-5.892] [-6.015] [-8.007] [-5.779]

INV 0.076 0.083 0.081 0.091 0.084 0.104[3.035] [3.271] [3.309] [2.898] [3.288] [3.492]

FERTIL -1.203 -1.204 -1.205 -1.093 -1.002 -1.152[-7.859] [-7.905] [-7.957] [-6.971] [-7.251] [-7.261]

DSCH15 0.531

[2.868]

DMALESCH15 0.59 0.527 0.551 0.521 0.469

[2.324] [3.193] [2.963] [3.649] [2.812]

DFEMSCH15 -0.09

[-0.328]

EFW 0.599 0.761

[3.479] [5.490]

DEFW 0.461 0.236

[3.616] [1.668]Adjusted R-squared 0.587 0.591 0.596 0.685 0.726 0.626N 90 90 90 85 85 85White test (chi-square) 5.03 29.622 9.317 35.94 38.83 17.55d.f. for White test 14 20 14 20 27 20prob-value 0.985 0.076 0.81 0.016 0.066 0.617

Dependent Variable: Average annual rate of growth (%), real per capita GDP, 1980-99.

[numbers in parentheses are t-values of the estimated coefficients]

Regression Number: [7] [8] [10] [11]

-0.124[-0.062]

INV*EFW

-1.754[-3.549]

1.718

[3.143]

0.152

[0.604]Adjusted R-squared 0.186N 96White test (chi-square) 5.025d.f. for White test 9prob-value 0.832

Constant

Dependent Variable: Average annual rate of growth (%), real per capita GDP,

[9]

LOGGDP80

INV

FERTIL

EFW

DMALESCH15

DEFW

TROPICAR

POP100KM

LOGDIST

Regression Number: [7] [8] [10] [11]

-0.124 17.202[-0.062] [5.195]

-1.67

[-6.449]

0.072

[2.879]INV*EFW

-1.229

[-7.564]

0.427

[2.472]

-1.754 -0.647[-3.549] [-1.513]

1.718 0.285

[3.143] [0.620]

0.152 -0.028

[0.604] [-0.147]Adjusted R-squared 0.186 0.631N 96 84White test (chi-square) 5.025 37.828d.f. for White test 9 35prob-value 0.832 0.341

Constant

Dependent Variable: Average annual rate of growth (%), real per capita GDP,

[9]

LOGGDP80

INV

FERTIL

EFW

DMALESCH15

DEFW

TROPICAR

POP100KM

LOGDIST

Regression Number: [7] [8] [10] [11]

-0.124 17.202[-0.062] [5.195]

-1.67

[-6.449]

0.072

[2.879]INV*EFW

-1.229

[-7.564]

0.427

[2.472]

-1.754 -0.647[-3.549] [-1.513]

1.718 0.285

[3.143] [0.620]

0.152 -0.028

[0.604] [-0.147]Adjusted R-squared 0.186 0.631N 96 84White test (chi-square) 5.025 37.828d.f. for White test 9 35prob-value 0.832 0.341

Constant 12.748[4.550]

Dependent Variable: Average annual rate of growth (%), real per capita GDP,

[9]

LOGGDP80 -1.97

[-9.056]INV 0.088

[3.551]

FERTIL -0.913

[6.524]

EFW 0.811

[5.826]

DMALESCH15 0.317

[2.198]

DEFW 0.495

[3.957]TROPICAR -1.219

[-3.351]POP100KM 0.14

[0.368]LOGDIST 0.091

[0.552]

66.42254

0.119

0.77380

Regression Number: [7] [8] [10] [11]

-0.124 17.202 13.675[-0.062] [5.195] [6.170]

-1.67 -1.988

[-6.449] [-9.459]

0.072 0.089

[2.879] [3.659]INV*EFW

-1.229 -0.926

[-7.564] [-6.951]

0.427 0.337

[2.472] [2.438]

0.797

[5.915]

0.513

[4.277]-1.754 -0.647 -1.098

[-3.549] [-1.513] [-3.695]

1.718 0.285

[3.143] [0.620]

0.152 -0.028

[0.604] [-0.147]Adjusted R-squared 0.186 0.631 0.778N 96 84 80White test (chi-square) 5.025 37.828 44.942d.f. for White test 9 35 35prob-value 0.832 0.341 0.121

Constant 12.748[4.550]

Dependent Variable: Average annual rate of growth (%), real per capita GDP,

[9]

LOGGDP80 -1.97

[-9.056]INV 0.088

[3.551]

FERTIL -0.913

[6.524]

EFW 0.811

[5.826]

DMALESCH15 0.317

[2.198]

DEFW 0.495

[3.957]TROPICAR -1.219

[-3.351]POP100KM 0.14

[0.368]LOGDIST 0.091

[0.552]

66.42254

0.119

0.77380

Regression Number: [7] [8] [10] [11]

-0.124 17.202 13.675 15.877[-0.062] [5.195] [6.170] [7.923]

-1.67 -1.988 -1.991

[-6.449] [-9.459] [-9.492]

0.072 0.089

[2.879] [3.659]INV*EFW 0.0157

[3.679]

-1.229 -0.926 -0.937

[-7.564] [-6.951] [-7.122]

0.427 0.337 0.332

[2.472] [2.438] [2.399]

0.797 0.424

[5.915] [2.339]

0.513 0.513

[4.277] [4.280]

-1.754 -0.647 -1.098 -1.196[-3.549] [-1.513] [-3.695] [-4.006]

1.718 0.285

[3.143] [0.620]

0.152 -0.028

[0.604] [-0.147]Adjusted R-squared 0.186 0.631 0.778 0.779N 96 84 80 80White test (chi-square) 5.025 37.828 44.942 42.987d.f. for White test 9 35 35 35prob-value 0.832 0.341 0.121 0.166

Constant 12.748[4.550]

Dependent Variable: Average annual rate of growth (%), real per capita GDP, 1980-

[9]

LOGGDP80 -1.97

[-9.056]INV 0.088

[3.551]

FERTIL -0.913

[6.524]

EFW 0.811

[5.826]

DMALESCH15 0.317

[2.198]

DEFW 0.495

[3.957]TROPICAR -1.219

[-3.351]POP100KM 0.14

[0.368]LOGDIST 0.091

[0.552]

66.42254

0.119

0.77380

CrecimientoEcon.

Fertilidad(–)

IngresoInicial (–)

(Convergencia)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2 3 4 5 6 7 8

FERTILITY 1960

166 Countries

Mean 5.46 Median 6.20 Maximum 8.00 Minimum 1.89 Std. Dev. 1.75

0

5

10

15

20

1 2 3 4 5 6 7

FERTILITY 1999

192 Countries

Mean 3.25 Median 2.81 Maximum 7.28 Minimum 0.97 Std. Dev. 1.63

1.

Guatemala: 4.72

Bolivia: 4.02

Female Fertility Rates by Women's Years of Schooling in 9 Latin American Countries.

0 1-3 4-6 7-9 10+

Bolivia 5.1 6.2 6.4 5.3 4.2 2.8Brazil 3.7 6.7 5.2 3.4 2.8 2.2Colombia 3.3 5.6 4.5 3.6 2.5 1.8Dom. Rep. 3.8 5.8 5.0 4.4 3.5 2.6Ecuador 4.3 6.4 6.3 4.7 3.5 2.6El Salvador 4.4 6.0 5.2 3.9 3.5 2.5Guatemala 5.6 6.9 5.6 4.2 2.8 2.7Mexico 4.1 6.4 6.3 4.0 2.7 2.4Peru 4.5 7.4 6.1 4.6 3.7 2.5

6.4 5.6 4.2 3.2 2.5

Source: Castro Martín and Juárez (1995), Table 2, p. 55.

Years of SchoolingAll

Average (unweighted)

CrecimientoEcon.

CapitalHumano (+)

Fertilidad(–)

IngresoInicial (–) (Convergencia)

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

2 4 6 8 10 12

Series: SCH95Sample 1 106Observations 92

Mean 5.979239Median 5.825000Maximum 11.89000Minimum 0.760000Std. Dev. 2.743981Skewness 0.127987Kurtosis 2.309570

Jarque-Bera 2.078497Probability 0.353720

Guatemala: 3.25 años

Bolivia: 5.31 años

CrecimientoEcon.

CapitalHumano (+)

INV (+)

Fertilidad(–)

IngresoInicial (–) (Convergencia)

0

5

10

15

20

25

10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50

Series: INVSample 1 106Observations 106

Mean 21.53192Median 21.22966Maximum 48.23973Minimum 7.515450Std. Dev. 6.513268Skewness 1.003033Kurtosis 5.690054

Jarque-Bera 49.73472Probability 0.000000

Guatemala: 13.9 %

Bolivia: 15.3 %

CrecimientoEcon.

CapitalHumano (+)

INV (+)

Lib. Econ.(+)

Fertilidad(–)

IngresoInicial (–) (Convergencia)

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

3 4 5 6 7 8

Series: EFWSample 1 106Observations 92

Mean 5.364377Median 5.257298Maximum 8.554979Minimum 3.186115Std. Dev. 1.147321Skewness 0.616282Kurtosis 3.055412

Jarque-Bera 5.835433Probability 0.054057

CrecimientoEcon.

CapitalHumano (+)

INV (+)

Lib. Econ.(+)

Fertilidad(–)

IngresoInicial (–) (Convergencia)

Eficiencia

Incentivos

Tasa de Inversión vs. índice EFW, 92 países, 1980-99

0

10

20

30

40

50

0 2 4 6 8 10

EFW

INV

CrecimientoEcon.

CapitalHumano (+)

INV (+)

Lib. Econ.(+)

Fertilidad(–)

IngresoInicial (–)

Geografía(Sachs)

(Convergencia)

Eficiencia

Incentivos

Tasas de Crecimiento (%), PIB per cápita, 106 Países, 1980-99. 

0

4

8

12

16

-4 -2 0 2 4 6 8