Uncertainties in Natural Capital Facing Climate and Land Use Change:

From Ecosystem Services Point of View

Wei Weng, Prajal Pradhan, Jürgen Kropp, David Landholm Haight, Desirée Dörr.

SAL Annual MeetingCIAT Cali, Colombia March 2016

ObjectivesMISSION A.

•Background

Lack of knowledge in the spatial distribution of ecosystem services in the Amazon basin.

Call for undertaking spatial analysis of the dynamic ecosystem assets. (UNEP, 2014)

•A framework of investigating and mapping ecosystem services budgets is proposed here.

•Potential contribution WP1 O1 indicator 2 and 3/ WP2 O2 indicator 3MISSION B.

•Background

Land use changes has currently altered the hydrological regimes of the Amazon basin.

Studies have yet addressed the future changes of the provision, flow and potential of water-related ecosystem services.

•Analysis of changes in water-related ecosystem services over time in Colombian and Peruvian Amazon utilizing land surface

model under different land-cover change scenarios.

•Potential contributionWP2 O2

http://matrix.wikia.com/wiki/Main_Page

MISSION A

•Concept of ecosystem services budgets* is employed here. (Bulkhard et al., 2012)

•Matrix approach in order to show the capacity of supply and demands quantitatively.

•Integrating published research data (eg. Rodríguez et al., 2014; Ramirez-Gomez et al., 2014) and modelling (eg.

CMIP5, EcoCrop) outputs to provide assessments for ranges of ecosystem services budget.

•Utilising Common International Classification of Ecosystem Services (CICES) in an aim of potential assimilation into

global ecosystem asset accounting network.

Investigating and mapping ecosystem services budgets of the study area http:/

/photos.pchome.com.tw/s14/k/i/kikimayday_mp/book9/p123191166681.jpg

An example for the intended investigation

Source: Open access article

Burkhard, B., Kandziora, M., Hou, Y., and Müller, F. (2014). Ecosystem service potentials, flows and demands–concepts for spatial localization, indication and quantification. Landscape Online, 34, 1-32.

Investigating and mapping ecosystem services budgets of the study area

Class Surface w

ater for drinking Ground w

ater for drinking Surface w

ater for non-rinking purposes Ground w

ater for non- drinking purposes Dilution by atm

osphere, freshw

ater and marine

ecosystems

Hydrological cycle and w

ater flow m

aintenance

Flood protection Storm

protection

Chemical condition of

freshwaters

Chemical condition of salt

waters

Global climate regulation

by reduction of greenhouse gas M

icro and regional climate

regulation

Landscape units

• Experts workshop (Burkhard et al., 2014)• Landscape units - scale data (!)

MISSION BAnalysis of changes in water-related ecosystem services over time in Colombian and Peruvian Amazon utilizing land surface model under different land-cover change scenarios.

•Studies suggested the land management in last decade has changed the precipitation regime and

drought frequency (Bagley et al., 2014; Swann et al., 2015).

•Projected hydrological regime change has yet to be integrated into the ecosystem services delivery

point of view quantitatively and directly.

•The Joint UK Land Environment Simulator (Best et al., 2011; Clark et al., 2011).

• 0.5° * 0.5°resolution, Recognition of sub-grid heterogeneity

• Can be coupled with climate model running online.

• Rainfall-runoff relationship: TOPMODEL approach (TOPography based hydrological MODEL; Kirkby, 1975;

Beven and Kirkby, 1979; Beven, 1997)

• Topographic index layer (15 arcsec resolution) (Marthews et al., 2014)

TIMELINEInvestigating and mapping ecosystem services budgets of the study area

First working year Methodology established, data mining and decision over indicators.

By this working year The assessment matrix of key ecosystem services (water balance, soil, carbon and biodiversity).*

*This information can contribute to the discussion of sustainable options with local communities.

Analysis of changes in water-related ecosystem services over time

First working year Modelling configuration

By this working year Modelling result of basic runs and under different scenarios*.

* The sustainable options decided by participatory approach in this project.

Information useful for decision over sustainable land use options and effective participatory land use/ ecosystem policy.

COLLABORATION INTERESTMission A (Investigating and mapping ecosystem services budgets of the study area)

•Ecosystem data at local scale which can be helpful for ES assessment over landscape units•Amazon basin scale escosystem services data (indicators provided)

Mission B (Analysis of changes in water-related ecosystem services over time in Colombian and Peruvian Amazon utilizing land surface model under different land-cover change scenarios)

Inputs from hydrological and ES modelling experts among partners. For detailed information of experiments and configuration or any suggestion, please email weiweng@pik-potsdam.de

http://images.google.de/imgres?imgurl=http%3A%2F%2Fitem.shopping.c.yimg.jp%2Fi%2Fl%2Fanzen-signshop_hks-38&imgrefurl=http%3A%2F%2Fbuyee.jp%2Fitem%2Fyahoo%2Fshopping%2Fanzen-signshop_hks-38%3Flang%3Dchs&h=600&w=600&tbnid=dsD6lMRH_Ey1XM%3A&docid=A87AHeUzsH6XnM&ei=QBDGVp3rNsGuswGDpq34DA&tbm=isch&iact=rc&uact=3&dur=1369&page=7&start=153&ndsp=30&ved=0ahUKEwidi4ms-4HLAhVB1ywKHQNTC884ZBCtAwjEATBA

SUMMARY• Work now in progress:

• An evaluation of the spatial distribution of ecosystem services using matrix approach.

• Modelling changes in water-related ecosystem services under utilising land surface model JULES.

• In total, this work aims to provide an evaluation of natural capital changes under climate change and land use options while recognising their interdependency.

• Decision level assessment leads the direction for ecosystem services policy, but the transition options are to be decided at a local level and participatory way.

THANK YOU! weiweng@pik-potsdam.de