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7/23/2019 Analisis Junio 2013

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rjs h` nlrt`hjz` idjxpufd`khj ajh prl-

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7/23/2019 Analisis Junio 2013

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gs quj dudb`( h` bh`sj lkrjr` si-

fuj sijdal h` nujrz` gltriz ajh ajs`-

rrlhhl slbi`h$ Cly gs quj dudb`( plr

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hibid aj h` prlpija`a priv`a` slkrj

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ajfr`a`bid y gisjri` aj h`s g`s`s

h`klrils`s$

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t`alr`s y fujrr s aj r`pi` plr h`

bldquist` aj dujvls gjrb`als( plr

jh bldtrlh aj nujdtjs aj g`tjri`s pri-

g`s plr p`rtj aj hls gldlplhils(

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pjtia`s brisis dl c`bjd gs quj rj-

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klsb`a`s k`ml jh jpfr`nj aj fuj-

rr`s cug`dit`ri`s) sj bjdtr d jd

g`s`br`r ` hls pujkhls jd v`s aj

ajs`rrlhhl p`r jxplhi r sus rjbur-sls$ Jh igpjri`hisgl js ud` gquid`

fjdjr`alr` aj jxphlt`bid y gisjri`

p r` udls( y aj jsbh viz bid y

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js idbldbjkikhj si h` hubc` bldtr`

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plhtibl j iajlhfibl$ H` rj`hia`a

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jstrih aj h` hubc` jbldlgibist`(

`s blgl h` putrjn`bbid ajh lplr-

tudisgl$

Y` dl c`y tijgpl di jsp`bil p`r`

rjividaib`r gjmlr`s aj udls bldvj-

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fuir brjyjdal jd nr`uauhjdtls b`pi-

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al h` bldtr`aibbid dubhj r ajh

glgjdtl fir` jd tlrdl ` igpjri`his-

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shl ud` v` tbtib` pujaj idsunh`r h`

nujrz` djbjs`ri` ` gihhldjs aj tr`k`-

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tlrdl ` igpjri`hisgl , slbi`-hisgl #b`pit`h,tr`k`ml)( y` s-hl ud` v` tbtib` pujaj idsu-

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udia`a y h` slhia ria`a ajbh`sj( pih`rjs g`jstrls ajh

rjd`bjr prlhjt`ril$+

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bldst`dtjs `v`dbjs y rjtrlbj-sls( dl shl dls gujstr`d bu`ddjf`tivl y djn`stl pujaj sjr jh

tr`k`ml aj z`p` ajh lplrtudisgljd jh glvigijdtl lkrjrl( sidl

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sidaib`h y jbldlgibist`$ Jh triud-

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ai`hbtib`( hls nrjdtjs jbldgi-bl( plhtibl j iajlhfibl$+

7/23/2019 Analisis Junio 2013

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H` kurfujs s`kj guy kijdquj h` brisis sistgib` ajh b`pit his-

gl v` ` prlaubir rjspujst` plr p`rtj

aj h` bh`sj lkrjr` y hls sjbtlrjs pi-

s`als plr jstj b`pit`hisgl gldlpl-

hist` aj Jst al$ [jspujst s js-

pldtdj`s( sid airjbbid di

lrf`diz`bid( t`gplbl `rg`a`s bld

h` bijdbi ajh slbi`hisgl bijdtnibl(

bld jh _`rtial Blgudist` `usjdtj y

plr hl t`dtl ajstid`a`s `h nr`b`sl$

Rid jgk`rfl( js` rjspujst v` `

prlaubirsj pujs jh b`pit`hisgl jd js-

t` n`sj dl tijdj d`a` quj lnrjbjr `

hls lkrjrls sidl c`gkrj( gisjri`( p`-

rl brdibl( ajs`cubils( jtb$ Rid jg-

k`rfl plr gjr` supjrvivjdbi`( h` bh`-

sj lkrjr` v` ` rj`bbild`r$ Jhhls hl

s`kjd y p`r` jhhl sj prjp`r`d jd tl-

als hls tjrrjdls= jbldgibl( iajlh-

fibl( plhtibl y blgl dl t`gkid jdjh rjprjsivl( pujs h` aibt`aur` aj h`

kurfujs` dl pujaj g`dtjdjrsj sid

vilhjdbi` slkrj hls jxphlt`als$

Jd jstj sjdtial rjbikigls als dlti-

bi`s$ H` prigjr` h` blgpr`( jd phjdl

aisbursl aj hls plhtibls kurfujsjs

slkrj h` `ustjria`a( aj gihjs aj

bc`hjbls `dtik`h`s bld hls quj jqui-

p`r ` hls bujrpls rjprjsivls ` sujhal

aj h` kurfujs $ _ r` jstl s quj

c`y aidjrl( pujstl quj js ud` djbj-

sia`a aj h` kurfujs jh `rg rsjc`st` hls aijdtjs p`r` c`bjr nrjdtj `

su bh`sj `dt`fdib`$ Js ud` djbjsi-

a`a ajh b`pit hisgl( plrquj p r`

bldtidu`r bld jh rlkl idaisbrigid`al

aj hls rf`dls ajglbrtibls prlhj-

t`rils( ` tr`vs aj h` @s`gkhj` aj

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#@BAQ)( `s blgl h` p`r`hjh` bld-

slhia`bid aj h` Bjdtr h dib` aj

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p`lh( ud` Bjdtr`h Lkrjr` y Rlbi`-

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al( bldslhiaj h` blhugd` vjrtjkr`h

ajh slbi`hisgl= jh Nrjdtj dibl ajh

_ujkhl #NZ_)$ Bldstruir jh Jmrbitl

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rj`bbid y hiquia`r `h Jst`al aj hlsgldlplhils( b`p`z aj tlg`r jh pl-

ajr j idst`ur`r h` aibt`aur` rjvlhu-

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Ajb` jh fr`d hajr ajh prlhjt`ri`al

gudai`h -Hjdid-( ud _rigjrl aj G`-

yl aj 09?1=

Als gudals sj `hz`d nrjdtj `nrjdtj jd jst` fr`dails` hubc` jhgudal ajh b`pit`h y jh gudal ajhtr`k`ml( jh gudal aj h` jxphlt`-bid y h` jsbh`vitua( y jh aj h` nr`-tjrdia`a y h` hikjrt a$ _lr ud`

p`rtj( c`y ud pu`al aj riblsp`rsitls$ Jd sus g`dls sj bld-bjdtr`d hls t`hhjrjs y h`s nkrib`s(h`s cjrr`gijdt`s y h`s gquid`s$C`d bldvjrtial gihhldjs aj

cjbtrj`s aj tijrr` y gldt``s ajaidjrl jd su prlpija`a priv`a`$C`d cjbcl ajh flkijrdl y jh jmr-bitl sus bri als( nijhjs fu rai -djs aj h` riqujz` quj c`d `bu-guh`al$

_lr ltr` p`rtj( c`y gihhldjs ajajscjrja`als( lkhif`als ` suphi-b`r ` hls ribls pjrgisl aj tr`k`ml

p`r` jhhls$ Brj`d bld su tr`k`ml

tla` h` riqujz`( gijdtr`s jhhlsgisgls tijdjd quj hubc`r tla` h`via` plr ud pja`zl aj p`d( gjd-aif`r jh tr`k`ml blgl ud` higls-d`( `flt`r sus nujrz`s y `rruid`rsu s`hua jd tr`k`mls idslplrt -khjs

Jd jstj _rigjrl aj G`yl aj ;?02 jh

_BLJ( `sugijdal h`s rib`s jd-

sj`dz`s jg`d`a`s ajh slbi`hisgl

bijdtnibl( idn tif`khj ` h` clr` aj

ajs`rrlhh r su plhtib` aj g`s`s y

sidaib`h( c`bj suy`s aj dujvl h`s

p`h`kr`s ajh fr`d airifjdtj blgudis-

t` rusl$ Blgl b`si sijgprj subjaj

bld Hjdid( sus jsbritls p`rjbjd c`-

kjr sial rja`bt`als cly gisgl=

Dl c`y nujrz` quj puja` vjdbjr`h prlhjt`ri`al( plrquj su tr`k`mljs hl dibl quj slstijdj ` h`s bh`-sjs flkjrd`dtjs y `h flkijrdl$

Dl c`y jd jh gudal nujrz` b`p`zaj `ph`st`r ` gihhldjs aj lkrjrls(b`a` vjz gs bldsbijdtjs( udi-

als y lrf`diz`als #)B`g`r a`s lkrjrls! _rjp`r-gldls bld rjalkh`a` jdjrf` p`-r` jh blgk`tj ajbisivl quj sj`bjrb`! Puj sj jstrjbcjd h`s ni-h`s aj hls prlhjt`rils slbi`hist`s!

Puj su vlz sj prlp`fuj bld `g-phitua b`a` vjz g`ylr! Puj h``fit`bid jd tlrdl ` h`s rjividai-b`bildjs lkrjr`s sj ajsphijfujb`a` vjz gs bld g`ylr `ua`bi`!Puj h` bjhjkr`bid ajh _rigjrlaj G`yl `tr`if` ` dujstr` b`us`

` gihjs aj dujvls blgk`tijdtjs yjdfrlsj dujstr`s nujrz`s jd h`fr`dails` hubc` plr h` hikjrt`a ajtlal jh pujkhl( plr h` jg`dbip`-

bid aj tlals hls tr`k`m`alrjsajh yufl ajh b`pit`h!

^iv` h` hubc` aj h` bh`sj lkrjr`!

^iv` jh _rigjrl aj G`yl!

_rlhjt`rils aj tlals hls p`sjs(

udls!

_lr h`s @s`gkhj`s aj Blgits( Aj-

hjf`als y Qr`k`m`alrjs y jh Nrjdtj

dibl ajh _ujkhl!

Bldstruy`gls slbi`hisgl!

Blgisid aj Glvigijdtl lkrjrly aj g`s`s ajh Blgit Bjdtr`h

ajh _`rtial Blgudist` Lkrjrl Js-p`lh #_BLJ)

H@KZ[FZJR@RJ _[J_@[@_@[@H@FZJ[[@

7/23/2019 Analisis Junio 2013

5/12

` hls lkrjrls djbjsit`d quj

jstls gisgls lkrjrls sj`d

sugisls plr hl bivih l plr hl

brigid`h$

Js ajbir( bu`dal jh `albtri-

d`gijdtl iajlhfibl kurfus

n`hh`( y hls lkrjrls plr gjr`

supjrvivjdbi jgpijz`d `

ph dtj`rsj hls rlkls quj

sunrjd blgl sld h` phusv`h`

y hls rjblrtjs$

_h`dtj`gijdtls tla`v

jrrtibls y jspldtdjls(

plrquj sid jh _`rtial Blgu-

dist` blgk`tijdal js` iajl-

hlf` kurfujs` dudb` v`gls ` iajd-

tinib`r `h jdjgifl#h` kurfujs`) di a`rh` rjspujst` `ajbu`a`#h hubc` plr

jh slbi`hisgl jd tlals hls tjrrjdls)

Blgl quijr` quj ` d`aij hj fust

quj hj rlkjd( y jd jst` plb` putrj-

n`bt` ajh b`pit`hisgl jh rlkl js gs

jviajdtj j idaisiguh al quj dudb`(

jh `albtrid`gijdtl iajlhfibl kur-

fus pujaj n`hh`r$ @ajgs h`s lrf`-

diz`bildjs rjvlhubild`ri s jgpijz`d

tgia`gjdtj ` tjdjr jbl jdtrj h`sg`s`s$ Jsl js hl quj tjgj h` kur-

fujs`( y h` v` p`bnib` aj js` hubc`

` gujrtj quj g`dtijdjd bldtr` h`

bh`sj lkrjr` sj c`bj idvi`khj$

Jdtldbjs rjburrjd `h `rg` aj algi-

d`bid aj bh`sj aj quj jhhls sj c`d

alt`al( quj js jh Jst`al y hls bujr-

pls rjprjsivls= plhib`( jmrbitl( jtb$

Jhhl hl ajgujstr` h`s rjbijdtjs g`-

dilkr`s y jmjrbibils tbtibls y prjp`-r`tlrils aj bldtr` aisiajdbi` urk`d`

quj vijdjd ajs`rrlhh`dal jd jh sjvi-

hh`dl jst`ail aj H` B`rtum` udia`ajs

aj hitj aj hls bujrplr rjprjsivls

aj h` kurfujs` jsp`lh`= h` Zdia`a

aj B`k`hhjr ( hls FLJR( h` Zdia`a

aj Fu`s B`didls( Zdia`ajs gltlri-

z`a`s( aj suksujhl( h` Z_[ y h` tris-

tjgjdtj n`gls` I_$

Js ajbir( h`s udia`ajs

ajdlgid`a`s jd hjd-

fu`mj blhlqui h `dti-

aisturkils jstd ajs`-

rrlhh`dal mlrd`a`s aj

nlrg`bid y b`p`bit`-bid `rg`als bld jh

gs glajrdl g`tjri`h

rjprjsivl rjbid `a-

quirial( p`r` jdnrjdt r

` h` bh`sj lkrjr`$

Lkvi`gjdtj tlal jstl

bld jh sihjdbil bgphi-

bj aj hls g`ss gjai`

ajh b`pit`h( aj h` kurfujs`( quj b`-

hh`d y sihjdbi`d dltibi`s blgl jst s

pujs dl bldvijdj pukhib`r quj hls

bujrpls rjprjsivls sj jstd prjp`-

r`dal p`r h` vilhjdbi` idaisbrigid`-

a` bldtr` h` bh sj lkrjr`$ @ tlal hl

gs quj c`d hhjf`al hls phugihh`s `

sujhal aj h` kurfujs` js ` ainudair

h` dltibi aj h` jxcikibid `dtj js-

blh rjs aj h`s `btivia`ajs aj jstls

bujrpls( h`s `btivia`ajs gs plhti-

b`gjdtj blrrjbt`s sj jdtijdaj$ Rirvj

`ajgs blgl `albtrid`gijdtl ` hls

mvjdjs( bldnirg`dal `s h` k`t`hh`iajlhfib` sid bu rtjh quj ph`dtj` h`

kurfujs`$ Bh`rl quj ajdtrl aj jst`s

jxcikibildjs( dl c`krd jxpujstl hls

jmjrbibils t`hjs blgl rlgpjrhj h` b`-

H` b r` +`g`khj+ aj jst`s mlrd`a`s= `albtrid`gijdtliajlhfibl ` hls cimls aj hls lkrjrls ` hls quj quj v`d `g`bc`b`r jd h` b`hhj$

+Ajdudbi`gls jh b`rbtjraj bh`sj ajh Jst`al( aldajjh plajr plhtibl hl lstjdt`h` kurfujs` ` h` quj sirvjdsugis`gjdtj hls flkijrdls

bjdtr`hjs( `utldgibls( gu-dibip`hjs( h` muaib`tur`( hlsgjai`( y jd jstj b`sl hls

bujrpls rjprjsivls$ _lr t`d-

tl dl plar c`kjr p`sl `hslbi`hisgl sid ajstruir jstjjst`al( sid h` ajstrubbid

aj jstls bujrpls rjprjsivlsbuy` nudbid js prjbis`-gjdtj h` fujrr` bldtr` jh

prlhjt`ri`al$+

+$$$Blgl quijr` quj ` d`aijhj fust` quj hj rlkjd( y jdjst` plb` putrjn`bt` ajh

b`pit`hisgl jh rlkl js gsjviajdtj j idaisiguh`al quj

dudb`( jh `albtrid`gijdtliajlhfibl kurfus pujaj

n`hh`r$ +

7/23/2019 Analisis Junio 2013

6/12

kjz` aj ud plrr`zl ` ud p`arj aj n`-

gihi` lkrjrl `h quj ajs`cubi`( situ`-

bid jd h` quj prlk`khjgjdtj sj jd-

bldtr sjd gubcls aj hls dils

`sistjdtjs `h jvdtl$

Rid jgk`rfl( jhhls dl c`d vjdial `

jxcikirsj `dtj jsblh`rjs$ Jh a` aj

`sujtl( plr `s ajbirhl( dl js gs

quj ltrl jsh`kd aj jst` fujrr` bld-

tr` h` bh sj lkrjr`$ _lr gubcl quj

idtjdtjd jdf``r y gjdtir( plr gubcl

quj idtjdtjd lbuht`r( h` vjra`a sijg-

prj prjv`hjbj$ Qr`k`m`alrjs quj sj

jdbldtr`k`d jd jh jst`ail aj h` B`r-

tum` bldt`bt`rld bld jstj _`rtial

`h rg`als `bjrb` aj hls jmjrbibils

quj hhjv`d ` b`kl jstls idaiviauls$

_`rjbj sjr( quj ajdtrl aj jsls jmjr-

bibils jst k` h` prjp`r`bid p`r h`

b`rf` bldtr` g`dinjst`bildjs$ Zd

jmjgphl aj js`s g`dilkr`s( idaivi-

auls `t vi`als bld k`dajr`s aj

BBLL y ZFQ jr d rjaubials ` h`

nujrz` plr sus blgp`jrls aj h`

ZI_( bld jh nid aj ajglstr`r blgl sj

bldtrlh` plr h` vilhjdbi` ud` glvihi-

z`bid$ @ pjs`r aj quj js` glvihiz`-

bid sj` plr p`rtj aj lrf`diz`bildjs

quj sj situ`rd jd su h`al aj h` k`-

rrib`a`$

Zd` prujk` irrjnut`khj aj h` jxistjd-

bi` aj h` hubc` aj bh`sjs( y aj bgl

hls bujrpls rjprjsivls ` sujhal aj h`

bh`sj algid`dtj sj prjp`r`d p`r` h`

fujrr` bldtr` h` bh`sj algid`a`$

Ajdudbi`gls jh b`rbtjr aj bh sj

ajh Jst`al( aldaj jh plajr plhtibl hl

lstjdt` h` kurfujs` ` h` quj sirvjd

sugis`gjdtj hls flkijrdls bjdtr`-

hjs( `utldgibls( gudibip`hjs( h` mu-

aib tur ( hls gjai ( y jd jstj b`sl

hls bujrpls rjprjsivls$ _lr t`dtl dl

plar c`kjr p`sl `h slbi hisgl sid

ajstruir jstj jst al( sid h` ajstrub-

bid aj jstls bujrpls rjprjsivls bu-

y` nudbid js prjbis`gjdtj h` fujrr`

bldtr` jh prlhjt`ri`al$

Ajdudbi`gls `sigisgl h` blgphibi-

a`a aj hls p`rtials ajh rfigjd= __(

_RLJ( IZ( Z_YA jd jst` fujrr`

bldtr` h` bh sj lkrjr`( y jspjbi h-

gjdtj jh p`pjh ajh flkijrdl gudibi-

p`h ajh __ ajh jx mujz ]lial y aj h`

Mudt` aj @da`hub` flkjrd`a plr

jh _RLJ j IZ( quj rjbijdtjgjdtj

dlgkr `htl b`rfl jd @da`hub` `h

airifjdtj aj h` Jrtz`idtz` rjsplds`-

khj aj h` gujrtj aj ud `nibild`al `h

ntklh( ajkial `h usl idaisbrigid`al

aj pjhlt`s aj flg` y ajgs `rg`-gjdtl rjprjsivl$

Blgl vjgls p`trld h( p`rtials ajh

sistjg ( plhib s( mujbjs y pjrilais-

t`s `bt`d udials jd jst` hubc` bld-

tr` h` bh sj lkrjr`$ Js plr jhhl quj

hh`g`gls ` hls tr`k`m`alrjs ` lrf`-

diz`rsj jd su _`rtial( jh _BLJ( bld

jh nid aj rjvjrtir jst` situ`bid y jg-

pjz`r ` bldstruir hls idstrugjdtls aj

ajnjds` quj dls pjrgit d c`bjrnrjdtj ` jst` situ`bid$ Jhhls( hls kur-

fujsjs( v`d ` tjdajr b`a` vjz ` nlr-

g`s gs vilhjdt s y rj`bbild`ri s

aj algid`bid( js h` clr` aj a r

rjspujst` blgl bh`sj$

Blgisid aj `fit`bid y prlp`-f`da` ajh _$B$L$J$

H@ RLHZBID@H _[LKHJG@AJ H@^I^IJDA@( JHRLBI@HIRGL!

Ajdtrl ajh b`pit`hisgl h` vivijda`dl js ud ajrjbcl( sidl ud` gjr-b`db` gs bld h` quj hls b`pit`his-

t`s idtjdt d lktjdjr f`d`dbi s$ Js

ajbir( hls b`pit`hist`s idvijrtjd aidjrl

jd su bldstrubbid (prlaubjd aibc`gjrb`db` y ` p`rtir aj jhh`( gjai`d-

tj h` phusv`h` quj lktijdjd ajh tr`-

k`ml aj hls lkrjrls quj h` bldstru-

yjd( lktijdjd sus f`d`dbi`s$

Jh b`pit`hisgl js ud sistjg` jbld-

gibl quj dl tijdj blgl nid s`tisn`bjr

h`s djbjsia`ajs ajh pujkhl( sidl

prlpibi`r quj hls b`pit hist`s lktjd-

f`d b`a` vjz g`ylrjs f`d`dbi`s$ Js

ajbir( h`s vivijda`s quj sj bldstru-yjd dl tijdjd blgl nid`hia`a quj dl

c`y` didfd lkrjrl sid tjbcl( sidl

quj aibc` situ`bid dl prjlbup` jd

`kslhutl `h jgprjs`ril idglkihi`ril(

quj hl dibl quj kusb` js lktjdjr jh

g`ylr aidjrl plsikhj aj h` vjdt` aj

vivijda`s$

@s nudbild` jh sistjg` b`pit`hist`( sj

a` h` p`r`alm` quj jsls gisglslkrjrls quj bldstruyjd vivijda`s#l

prlaubjd blbcjs( l prlaubjd `hi-

gjdtls( l prlaubjd tlal) sj vjd pri-

v`als ajh `bbjsl ` js` gisg` vi-

7/23/2019 Analisis Junio 2013

7/12

vijda` quj c`d bldstruial si dl tij-

djd jh aidjrl djbjs`ril p`r` p`f`rh`$

_lr t`dtl( jh prlkhjg` aj h` vivijda`

y hls prlkhjg`s aj h` bh`sj lkrjr`

jd fjdjr`h ajriv`d aj ud` situ`bidaj ud sistjg` jbldgibl( ajriv`d aj

h` n`ht` aj plajr plhtibl p`r` h` bh`sj

lkrjr` y dl pujajd ir dudb` sjp`r`-

als aj h` hubc` aj bh`sjs( aj h` hu-

bc` plhtib` plr h` supjr`bid ajh sis-

tjg` b`pit`hist` y h` idst`ur`bid ajh

sistjg` jbldgibl slbi`hist $ _lr

t`dtl( aislbi`r h` hubc` plr h` vivijd-

a` aj h` hubc` plr jh slbi`hisgl js

ud jrrlr$ Jh b`pit`hist` sijgprj plar

us`r h` nujrz` ajh Jst`al( blgl `r-g` bljrbitiv` aj ud` bh`sj slbi`h sl-

krj ltr`( p`r` `b`k`r bld h`s jxpj-

rijdbi s jspldtdj`s quj tr t`d aj

plajr nid ` jstj prlkhjg` c`kit`bil-

d`h$

Jh Jst`al b`pit hist`( blgl rjprj-

sjdt`dtj ajh plajr jbldgibl quj hl

bldtrlh` y ajh plajr plhtibl quj jd

dujstr` slbija`a pjrtjdjbj ` ud`

bh`sj slbi`h quj js h` kurfujs`( dl

aua r jd jbc r g`dl aj tlal jh

bldmudtl aj hjyjs( mujbjs( gjails rj-

prjsivls l sus h`b`yls gjails aj

blgudib`bid p`r` pjrsjfuir ` tlal

`qujh quj lsj bujstild`r h` prlpij-

a`a priv`a` aj hls gjails aj prl-

aubbid( jd jstj b`sl h` prlpija`a

plr p`rtj aj hls k`dbls y fr`dajs id-

glkihi`ri`s aj hls gihjs y gihjs aj pi-

sls y b`s`s v`b`s aj Rjvihh`$

_lrquj h` gisid aj jstj Jst`al( aj

jstj plajr( dl js s`tisn`bjr h`s dj-

bjsia`ajs ajh pujkhl sidl g`dtjdjr

jh sistjg` aj al-

gid`bid plhtib`

jd jh quj hls

lkrjrls( jsls

quj tlal hl prl-

aubjd idbhuia`s

h`s vivijda`s( tij-

djd quj jdtr`g-

p rsj c`st h`s

bjm s p`r` plajr

`bbjajr ` ud tj-

bcl aldaj blki-

m`rsj$ Blgl ajbigls( bu`hquijr` quj

sj jdnrjdtj ` jstl sjr rjprigial(

muzf`al y brigid`hiz`al plr hls

g`ss-gjai`$ Qlal tijdj blgl nid jh

g`dtjdjr jh glal aj prlaubbid b`-

pit`hist`$ Jstl hl vjgls a` tr`s a`

jd gihjs aj ajs`cubils jd Jsp``(

blgl h` kurfujs` c` tir`al aj jsj

plajr ajh Jst`al p`r` ajs`cubi`r `ud`s pjrsld`s quj slh`gjdtj quij-

rjd ud tjbcl aifdl k`ml jh quj plajr

vivir( l brigid`hiz` lpbildjs blgl h`

_@C rjh`bilddalhls bld frupls `r-

g`als$ Rj bldst`t` `s h` v`hiajz aj

dujstrl `dhisis$

Jstl ajdlt` quj ` h` bh`sj lkrjr`(

p`r` pldjr nd `h prlkhjg` jdagibl

ajh `bbjsl ` h` vivijda` hj c`bj n`ht`

h` bldquist` ajh plajr plhtibl$ Zd

plajr plhtibl( jg`d`al aj hls bjd-

trls aj tr`k`ml( aj hls k`rrils lkrj-

rls( aj h`s `s`gkhj`s aj mlrd`hjrls(

aj jstuai`dtjs quj tjdf` blgl prid-

bip`h y dibl nid jh s`tisn`bjr h`s dj-

bjsia`ajs ajh pujkhl y vifih`r quj

tlals `qujhhls quj sj hubr`d bld h`

tr`fjai` aj hls ajs`cubils( quj js-

pjbuh`d bld h` vivijda` l quj s`b`d

pidfjs kjdjnibils aj jst` situ`bid

dl puja`d hhjv`r ` b`kl t`d d`usj`-

kudal blgjtial$

Js ajbir( jh plajr plhtibl aj h` sl-

bija`a slbi`hist` quj pjrtjdjbjr `

h` bh`sj lkrjr` y ` hls sjbtlrjs pl-

puh`rjs y dl ` ud pu`al aj lhif`r-

b`s( k`dqujrls y jgprjs`rils quj

sld hls quj `btu`hgjdtj lstjdt`d tl-

al jh plajr plhtibl jd dujstr` slbij-

a`a$

Dl js ud prlkhjg` aj plhtibls bl-rruptls( pujs plr jsjdbi` tlals hls

plhtibls ajh sistjg` kurfus hl sld(

di aj blbcjs lnibi`hjs( di aj jxistjd-

bi` aj Blgudia`ajs @utdlg`s$

_lrquj ` nid aj bujdt`s( jstls p`rh`-

gjdtls( jstls plhtibls dl tijdjd jh

plajr rj`h sidl quj sld hls ttjrjs(

hls idstrugjdtls plr gjail aj hls

bu`hjs h` kurfujs` g`dtijdj su pl-

ajr aj bh`sj$ _lrquj quijd tijdj jhplajr jbldgibl bldtrlh jh plajr

plhtibl( plr t`dtl tlals hls g`hjs aj

h` bh`sj lkrjr` vijdjd a`als plr js-

tj sistjg` brigid`h hh`g`al b`pit`his-

gl jd jh quj ud` bh sj slbi h js

auj` aj tlals hls gjails aj prl-

aubbid$ Jst` situ`bid js `s c`y` l

dl brisis( c`y` l dl kld`dz`

jbldgib` jdtrj blgihh`s( plrquj h`

jxphlt bid b`pit hist` jxistir sijg-prj quj jxist` jh b`pit`hisgl jd bu`h-

quijr` aj sus nlrg`s$

_lr t`dtl( tlals `qujhhls quj prl-

gjt`d ` h` bh`sj lkrjr` quj gjai`d-

tj rjnlrg`s ajdtrl ajh p`rh`gjdtl l

` divjh gudibip`h plard `b`k`r bld

jst` situ`bid aj jxphlt`bid ajh

clgkrj plr jh clgkrj( hl quj js-

t`rd c`bijdal js jdf``r ` h` bh`sj

lkrjr`$

Qlals `qujhhls quj prlpufdjd

`ajgs gjaia`s rjnlrgist s blgl h`

a`bid jd p`fl( quj dl js gs quj

+$$jh prlkhjg` aj h` vivijda` yhls prlkhjg`s aj h` bh`sj

lkrjr` jd fjdjr`h ajriv`d aj

ud` situ`bid aj ud sistjg`jbldgibl( ajriv`d aj h` n`ht`aj plajr plhtibl p`r` h` bh`sjlkrjr` y dl pujajd ir dudb`

sjp`r`als aj h` hubc` aj bh`-sjs( aj h` hubc` plhtib` plr h`

supjr`bid ajh sistjg` b`pit`-hist` y h` idst`ur`bid ajh sistj-g` jbldgibl slbi`hist`$ _lrt`dtl( aislbi`r h` hubc` plr h`

vivijda` aj h` hubc` plr jh sl-bi`hisgl js ud jrrlr$ +

7/23/2019 Analisis Junio 2013

8/12

CLYGR PZJ DZDB@( N[JDQJ DIBL AJH _ZJKHLJh p`sl aj h`brisis dls hhjv` `

ud huf`r idbijrtl si

tjdjgls jd bld-

siajr`bid hls su-

bjsivls glvi-

gijdtls qujsurfjd y h`s plsi-

bildjs quj `alp-

t`d `brjait`als

jxpjrtls jd plh-

tib` lplsitlr `h

flkijrdl djln`s-

bist`$ IZ( Muhil @dfuit ( y p`rtials

quj sj supldjd aj h` izquijra` rjvl-

hubild`ri`( bldsugjd tlal su tijgpl

jd idvjdt`r ud a` si y jh ltrl t`g-kid( `slbi`bildjs( nlrg`s aj hu-

bc`s( lkmjtivls ` `hb`dz`r$ @s(

pujs( tjdjgls aldaj jhjfir= [jpu-

khib`( [jtir a` ajh Jurl( Khlquj

brtibl( Ajglbr`bi` y`( Bldstitu-

yjdtj( jtb$ jtb$ _jrl dl sj bldsifuj

a r ud slhl p`sl c`bi `ajh dtj

_lr qu< Idaua`khjgjdtj( plrquj

dl jdtijdajd quj h` plhtib` js ud `r-

tj y ud` bijdbi`( quj h` hubc` c` aj

sjr bijdtnib` l dl js d`a`( y plr jsl

tla`s h`s tjdt`tiv`s quj sld bh r`-

gjdtj psjualrrjvlhubild`ri`s sld

tr`f`a`s plr h`s nujrz`s `kslrvjdtjs

ajh sistjg`$

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kijd jd h` prb-

tib ( hhjf`dal `

h` bldbhusid

quj p r` jhhls

h`s bh sjs sl-

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sjbuda`ril jd

jstj jpislail

cistribl$ H`

bldsjbujdbi`

suksifuijdtj dl

pujaj sjr ltr`

quj h` aj djf`r ` h` bh`sj lkrjr` su

p`pjh aj sumjtl rjvlhubild`ril$

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fud` tldtjr`( supldj `k`dald`r `h

pujkhl ` h` ajriv`( hhjv`rhj ` ud b`-

hhjmd sid s`hia`( g`hf`st`r sus nujr-

z`s( `rruid`r sus idquijtuajs y su id-

aifd`bid( c`st` bldvjrtirhj jd ud

lkmjtl g`hj`khj jd g`dls ajh Jst`-

al b`pit`hist`$

Jh b`pit`hisgl js ud sistjg` aj jx-

phlt`bid jd jh quj jh p`trd sj jdri-

qujbj blgl bldsjbujdbi` aj rlk`r-

hj `h tr k`m alr jh prlaubtl aj su

tr`k`ml$ Hl quj `njbt` `h b`pit`hist` y

Jh b`pit`hisgl js ud sistjg`aj jxphlt`bid jd jh quj jhp`trd sj jdriqujbj blglbldsjbujdbi` aj rlk`rhj `h

tr`k`m`alr jh prlaubtl aj sutr`k`ml$ Hl quj `njbt` `h b`pi-t`hist` y ` su Jst`al sjrvialr(

js quj jh tr`k`m`alr dl prl-auzb`( plrquj jh sistjg` sj

vjdar` `k`ml idjxlr`khjgjd-tj$

ud rlkl `h tr`k`m`alr aj su vivijda`

y aj tlal jh aidjrl quj p`f plr jhh`(

jst`rd c`bijdal nh`bl n`vlr ` h` bh`-

sj lkrjr`$ Qjdf`d kujd` vlhudt`a l

dl( pjrl jst`rd c`bijdal gs a`l

quj kijd$

Zrfj ` h` bh`sj lkrjr` lrf`diz`rsj

p`r` ud nid guy sjdbihhl= h` tlg` ajhplajr plhtibl( h` bu`h dl sj prlau-

bir gjai`dtj jh ajpsitl aj ud` p`-

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ai`dtj h` rjvlhubid$ Zd` rjvlhubid

quj pldf` jh plajr jd g`dls ajh

pujkhl( jd g`dls aj hls quj vjra`-

ajr`gjdtj prlaubjd h` riqujz` y quj

sld hls quj c`bjd quj jst` slbija`a

nudbildj$

Jh nid js jh plajr lkrjrl y jh slbi`his-

gl( jh dibl sistjg` jbldgibl quj

tijdj blgl gisid s`tisn`bjr h`s dj-

bjsia`ajs ajh pujkhl$ Jh plajr sl-

bi hist` dl bldstruyj h`s vivijda`s

kusb`dal jh hubrl jbldgibl( sidl

rjvlhvjr jsj prlkhjg` quj tijdj h`bh`sj lkrjr`= jh tjdjr ud` vivijda`

aifd` y ud prlyjbtl aj via` aifdls$

Jd jh b`pit`hisgl( y gs t`h y blgl

sj ajs`rrlhh` djf`tiv`gjdtj( jst s

als lpbildjs sld quigjr`s$

_lr t`dtl( p`r` quj h`s vivijda`s quj

hls lkrjrls prlaubigls sj`d rj`h-

gjdtj dujstr`s y dl aj ud k`dbl l

aj ud bldstrubtlr (ajkjgls hubc`r

plr jh ajrrlb`gijdtl ajh b`pit`hisgl

y h` bldstrubbid ajh slbi`hisgl$

_lrquj si tlal hl prlaubigls= hls `hi-

gjdtls( h`s vivijda`s( jd ajniditiv`

tlal tipl aj gjrb`db`s y prlaub-

tls(plrqu tjdjgls quj `fu`dt r

quj dujstrls cjrg`dls aj bh`sj p`-

sjd c`gkrj( quj dujstrls cimls

jstd ajsdutrials l quj c`y` lkrj-

rls sid ud tjbcl aldaj blkim`rsj( ud

tjbcl quj c`d prlaubial ltrls lkrj-

rls blgl jhhls

7/23/2019 Analisis Junio 2013

9/12

` su Jst`al sjrvialr( js quj jh tr`-

k`m`alr dl prlauzb`( plrquj jh sistj-

g` sj vjdar` `k`ml idjxlr`khjgjd-

tj$ _lr jst` hjy

irrjnut`khj( tlal bu`dtl

sj c`f` ` jsp`ha`s aj

hls tr k`m alrjs dlpujaj surtir ud jnjbtl

tr dsnlrg`alr$ H`s

g`dinjst`bildjs idtjr-

bh`sist`s( js ajbir( aj h`

biua`a`d`( tijdjd h`

virtua aj ajglstr r jh

jst`al aj digl jd

fjdjr`h( pjrl dl `tiz`d

di pujajd `tiz`r `h bl-

r`zd ajh rfigjd$ Jhfr`d b`pit h bldtid`

jdriqujbidalsj( plr-

quj su nujdtj aj riqujz` sifuj g`-

d`dal jurls$ H` bh sj lkrjr`( h`s

bh`sjs tr`k`m`alr`s jd su bjdtrl aj

tr`k`ml( bldstituyjd h` nujrz` vit`h j

idsustituikhj bld h` quj jh pujkhl c`

aj bldt`r lkhif`tlri`gjdtj( l gjmlr

aibcl( ` h` quj jh pujkhl c` aj sj-

fuir( si quijrj quj sus prltjst`s rj-

suhtjd jxitls`s$

_jrl h` bh`sj lkrjr` sj c`hh` rjbhuia`

tr`s h`s bu`trl p`rjajs aj su bjdtrl

aj tr`k`ml( aldaj h` c`d hhjv`al h`

tr`ibid aj hls fr`dajs sidaib`tls y h`

aj hls p`rtials p`rh`gjdt rils$ Rj

jdbujdtr` pujs( ajs`gp`r`a`( ` h`

vjz quj prjs` aj ud`s hjyjs quj

prtib`gjdtj h` c` blhlb`al jd si-

tu`bid aj ihjf`hia`a$ Qla` `bbid

quj quijr` hhjv`r ` b`kl h` bh sj

lkrjr` sj jdbujdtr` bld ud

lkstbuhl ids`hv`khj= h` hjy$ H` rj-

nlrg` h`klr`h js hjy h`s cujhf`s aj

slhia`ria`a plr blgp`jrls ajspjai-

als jstd prlcikia`s plr hjy jh ajs-

pial js hikrj plr hjy hls bldvjdils

sld `duh`als plr jh p`trd `h `gp`rl

aj h` hjy$ H`s cujhf`s jstd `duh`a`s

idairjbt`gjdtj( dl c`bj n`ht` quj h`

ihjf`hibjd bld ud` hjy airjbt`( h` bh`-

vj sj c`hh` jd quj plbl ` plbl( plr

d`a` sj plar c`bjr cujhf` plrquj

h` hjy prltjfj h`s b`us`s ajh ajsbld-

tjdtl$

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tr`k`m`alr glvjrsj$ H` plhtib` bjr-

bjd` tla`s h`s plsikihi-

a`ajs aj nrjd`r jh

`v`dbj igpjtulsl ajh

b`pit hisgl$ @dtj jstsitu`bid hls tr`k`m -

alrjs y h`s b`p`s pl-

puh`rjs dl pujajd s`-

hir ` h` ajsjspjr a`(

sid lrijdt`bid bh`r`( y

slkrj tlal utihiz`dal

plr `rg` h` hubc`

jbldgib`( quj `dtjs

aj jgpjz`r c` sial

tugk`a` plr hls flh-pjs quj c` rjbikial aj

h` plhtib ( plr h`s hj-

yjs$ H` hubc` tijdj quj sjr plhtib`

ajsaj hls bjdtrls aj tr`k ml( sjr

jdtldbjs( bu`dal jd h` b hhj tlgj

bujrpl ud prlfr`g` rjvlhubild`ril

+Ajsprjbi`r ` h` bh`sj lkrjr`

y djf`rhj su p`pjh jd h` cis-tlri` dl js didfud` tldtjr`(supldj `k`dald`r `h pujkhl` h` ajriv`( hhjv`rhj ` ud b`-hhjmd sid s`hia`( g`hf`st`r

sus nujrz`s( `rruid`r sus id-quijtuajs y su idaifd`bid(

c`st` bldvjrtirhj jd ud lkmj-tl g`hj`khj jd g`dls ajh Js-

t`al b`pit`hist`+$

_`r` rlgpjr h`s hjyjs c`y qujs`htrsjh`s$ Y dlsltrls ajbi-

gls= v`gls ` jxpldjr `hpujkhl( v`gls ` ihjf`hiz`rdls

p`r` vlhvjr `h pudtl aj p`rti-a`< DL( I[JGLR @ H@ CZJHF@FJDJ[@H _LHIQIB@( dl blglud nid( sidl blgl jh blgijdzl

aj ud prlbjsl aj b`gkils prl-nudals aj h` slbija`a c`st`

hlfr`r jh iaj`h sukhigj quj jd-tr`` hls tr`k`m`alrjs( sjr

aujls aj su ajstidl$ Puj dlqujp` aua`( hubc`rjgls p`r`

hlfr`r jh slbi`hisgl$

7/23/2019 Analisis Junio 2013

10/12

H` riqujz` prlaubia` plr h`sbh`sjs tr`k`m`alr`s aj tlals hls

p`sjs sj `buguh y bldbjdtr`b`a` vjz jd gjdls g`dls$ H`s

aj hls aujls aj hls gldlplhils$

`hf` jstj `rtbuhl p`r` ihustr r

bld binr`s bgl jh b`pit h `bu-

guh`al plr `hfudls aj jsls gl-

dlplhils supjr`d h` riqujz` prl-

aubia` plr p`sjs jdtjrls$

@hfud`s binr`s jsbh`rjbjd jst`bldbjdtr`bid aj riqujz`= ` bl-

gijdzls aj ;?02 @pphj pjs`k`

jd klhs` jh jquiv`hjdtj `h prjsu-

pujstl aj Nr`dbi` l h` sug` aj

hls _IK rug`dl( cdf`rl( jshl-

v`bl( brl`t` y hitu`dl$ H` sh` bi-

nr` aj djflbils aj h` blgp``

pjtrlhnjr` `dfhl-clh`dajs [l-

y`h Autbc rjprjsjdt` h` `btivia`a

aj tlal jh [jidl Zdial aur`dtjals gjsjs y gjail$

@ pjs`r aj h` b`dtia`a aj tr`k`-

`alrjs quj sj bldbjdtr` jd ud`

slh` jgprjs` blgl js jh b`sl

aj V`h-G`rt( quj jgphj` ` ;(0

gihhldjs aj `s`h ri`als( hls

prlpijt rils sj pjrgitjd jh humlaj bcuhj`rhls y g`rj`rhls bld

`bujrals quj dl bugphjd$ Q h

js jh b`sl ajh prlaubtlr aj `bj-

rl dgjrl udl ajh gudal( @bj-

hlr Gitt`h( quj bujdt` bld ;?gih

tr`k`m`alrjs ajh gjt`h y quj c`

bjrr`al v`rils clrdls jd Nr`d-

bi`( ` pjs`r ajh hhlriqujl tj`trjrl

ajh Jst`al nr`dbs$

_lr bit`r `hfudls jmjgphls gs(

h` binr` aj djflbils aj JSSLD

GL^IH # 313; gih gihhldjs aj

ah`rjs)( jquiv`hj ` tlal hl prl-

aubial jd Dlrujf` h` aj Qlyl-

t` #;:1 gih gihhldjs aj ah`rjs)(

`h _IK aj Frjbi h` aj Bcid`

_jtrlhjug #109 gih gihhldjs aj

ah`rjs)( `h aj @ustr`hi` l h` aj

^lhesw`fjd #;:1 gih gihhldjs ajah`rjs) `h aj Jfiptl$

Jstls fr`dajs gldlplhils

jbldgibls y nid`dbijrls tjmjd

IDQJ[D@BILD@HHLR GLDL_LHILR GR NZJ[QJR PZJ _@RJRJDQJ[LR

bld nujrz ( bld gjt`s ajnidia`s(

sjr jdtldbjs bu`dal jh b`pit h sj

rjsijdt`( pujs sj rjkjh` h` nujdtj aj

su riqujz`$ Y` dl js plsikhj pjds`r

jd p`sitls( jd rjnlrg`s jtb( quj sld

t`d ihjf`hjs blgl h` hubc` plr jh sl-

bi hisgl$ _`r bldsjfuir quj h` rj-nlrg` h`klr`h( quj hls rjblrtjs( quj

h` hjy aj jaub`bild y tlal bu`dtl c`

igpujstl jh flkijrdl b`pit`hist rj-

trlbja`( js djbjs`ril ir ` h` cujhf`

fjdjr`h plhtib`$ @s c` ph`dtj`al h`

situ`bid jh b`pit`hisgl$ _`r` rlgpjr

h`s hjyjs c`y quj s`htrsjh`s$ Y dl-

sltrls ajbigls= v`gls ` jxpldjr

`h pujkhl( v`gls ` ihjf`hiz`rdls p`r`

vlhvjr `h pudtl aj p`rtia`< DL( I[J-

GLR @ H@ CZJHF@ FJDJ[@H _L-

HIQIB@( dl blgl ud nid( sidl blgl jh

blgijdzl aj ud prlbjsl aj b`gkils

prlnudals aj h` slbija`a c`st` hl-

fr`r jh iaj`h sukhigj quj jdtr`` hls

tr`k`m`alrjs( sjr aujls aj su ajsti-

dl$ Puj dl qujp` aua`( hubc`rjglsp`r` hlfr`r jh slbi`hisgl$

_jrl h` cujhf` plhtib` dl sjr m`gs

jh prlaubtl ajh jst`al aj digl ajh

pujkhl( h` cujhf` fjdjr`h plhtib` tij-

dj quj sjr bldstruia` flhpj ` flhpj(

tr`gl ` tr`gl( `rrlhh`dal ` b`a` p`-

sl h` hjf hia`a quj dls igpiaj `h

lkrjrl( `h tr`k`m`alr( `h jstuai`dtj y

`h vjbidl( sjr hikrjs$ C`y quj udir tl-

a`s h`s nujrz`s k ml ud prlfr`g`

blgd aj tr`dsnlrg`bildjs( ` tr`vs

aj ud` lrf`diz`bid aisbiphid`a ( y

jsl( plr gs vujht` quj sj hj quijr`

a`r( sj hh`g` N[JDQJ ZDIBL AJH

_ZJKHL( quj tjdar quj sjr lrijd-

t`a` plr h` v`dfu`rai` iajlhfib` bu-yl dlgkrj js _@[QIAL BLGZDIR-

Q@$

CLY GR PZJ DZDB@(

N[JDQJ DIBL AJH _ZJKHL

_`rtial Blgudist` LkrjrlJsp`lh

Njajr`bid aj Mlvjdjs Blgu-dist`s aj Jsp``

7/23/2019 Analisis Junio 2013

11/12

_jsj ` quj jd ud pridbipil h`s gj-aia`s quj jstd sijdal `alpt a`splr jh `h gs rj`bbild`ri aj hls

p`rtials kurfujsjs jh Jmjbutivl `b-

tu`h `s blgl h`s subjaia`s `dtj-

rilrgjdtj( puja`d p`rjbjr h`s buhp`-

khjs aj h` situ`bid jaub`tiv` quj

cly p`ajbjgls( ajkjgls sj`h`r y

ajsbukrir quj h` vlrfidj aj ajfr`-

a`bid aj dujstr` jdsj`dz` ajriv`

airjbt gjdtj aj h` d`tur`hjz` idcj-

rjdtj `h sistjg` b`pit`hist`$ H` situ`-

bid `btu`h ajh sistjg` aj prlaub-bid ajh gisgl c`bj quj h`

kurfujs` djbjsitj ud` jaub bid

quj jdfjdarj ud` muvjdtua lkrjr`

sid `pjd`s bu`hinib`bid$

_lr bldsifuijdtj( jdbldtr`gls quj

h`s gjaia`s quj c`d jmjbut`al jh

Flkijrdl y h` Blgudia`a aj G`aria

tijdjd blgl lkmjtivl bldtidu`r `rti-

buh`dal jh sistjg` jaub`tivl `h sjr-

vibil ajh b`pit`h( utihiz`rhl blgl cj-

rr gijdt` aj h` kurfujs p r`

dutrirsj aj dujstr` muvjdtua lkrjr` y

jstuai dtj( jd `r`s aj bldtidu`r h`

@DQJ H@CZJHF@JAZB@QI @ AJH 9 AJ G@YL

ud` tupia` y lp`b` rja aj nihi`hjs y

rjh`bildjs b`pit`hist`s$ Jd ;?00 trjs

idvjstif`alrjs aj h` Jsbujh` _lhitb-

dib` Njajr`h aj ]uribc pukhib`k`d ud

jstuail sjfd jh bu`h 626 nirg`s

bldtrlh`k`d jhh`s sh`s jh 3?* aj h`s

2$??? slbija`ajs tr`dsd`bild`hjs

jstuai`a`s$

Dl js plr supujstl ud njdgjdl

dujvl( plrquj blrrjspldaj ` h` n`sj

gs `v`dz`a` ajh b`pit hisgl quj

js jh igpjri`hisgl$ Y` hl glstr Hj-

did ` blgijdzls ajh sifhl SS=

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gl sj jxtijdaj h` jspjs` rja aj

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ajspus$

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v`bclv ajnjda` blgl ud sistjg` aj

bldtrlh plr p`rtj aj hls tr`k`m`alrjs

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h jxpjrijdbi ajgujstr` quj

k`st` bld plsjjr jh 1?* aj h`s `b-

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pujs bijrt` p`rtj aj hls pjqujls`bbildist`s aispjrsls dl tijdjd jd

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aj h` plsjsid aj h`s `bbildjs( aj

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quj sld lplrtudist`s jspjr`d #l

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prlaubbid( jtb$( js jd rj`hia`a

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plajr aj h` lhif`rqu` nid`dbijr`$

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ajrlsls aj @hjg`di`( ajbh`r`k` jh

6 aj mudil aj 09??( jd jh [jibcs-

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jstjrhid` js h` k`sj ajh igpjri`his-

gl kritdibl+$

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+@ pjs`r aj h` b`dtia`a aj tr`-k`m`alrjs quj sj bldbjdtr`

jd ud` slh` jgprjs` blgl jsjh b`sl aj V`h-G`rt( quj jg-phj` ` ;(0 gihhldjs aj `s`h`-

ri`als( hls prlpijt`rils sj

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