Presentacin de PowerPoint

ARGENTINA : Perspectivas Granos & Oleaginosos

Ing. PABLO ADREANI

Director AgriPAC Consultants.

ARGENTINA

USB ConsultantSOUTHAMERICASud America ha sido nominada Reserva Alimentaria Mundial World Bank, United Nations, FAO

*Brazil & Argentina juntos son los mas grandes exportadores de Soja, Harina y Aceite de Soja. Ademas de ser importantes jugadores en el mercado mundial de carnes , vacuna y pollos. *Argentina solo, primer exportador Aceite & Harina Soja.*Fue durante las utlimas dos decadas que SAM pudo incrementar su participacion en el mercado global de alimentos. Es esto un MILAGRO????

ARGENTINA: 1995-2012PARA PODER PROYECTAR EL FUTURO MUCHAS VECES ES NECESARIO ENTENDER EL PASADO

* Desde 1995 se ha duplicado la produccion de granos desde 46 M tons a 100 millones, en la actualidad.

* Hemos incrementado en forma significativa la produccion de maiz y el market share en el comercio mundial de maiz.

* Hemos incrementado muy fuerte nuestra participacion en el crecimiento del comercio mundial de Harina de Soja y Aceite Soja.

* Hemos incrementado a muy buen ritmo nuestro consumo interno de carnes de cerdo y pollo, y en este ultimo caso las exportaciones.

* A PESAR DE TODO ELLO NO HEMOS LLEGADO A NUESTRO POTENCIAL

Mientras tanto veamos que pasaba en el MUNDOCambios porcentuajes en el Consumo Global de Soja, Maiz, Trigo y Algodon.1990/91 2010/11 and Forecast for 2011/12

Soybean demand up 147%; corn up by 83%, wheat up by only 22%Global soybean demand has grown far faster since 1990/91 than has demand for corn, cotton, rice and wheat. This has been because of strong economic growth, particularly in China and elsewhere in Asia which has driven demand for meat, milk, and eggs. This has led to faster growth in plantings and production of soybeans in North America and South America, in particular. Corn demand has grown faster in recent years because of the growth in the U.S. corn-based ethanol sector. Cotton demand has fallen as a result of the recession. Wheat demand has grown slowly as people around the world have shifted to eating more meat.4Tabla Nr. "1"Variacion Produccion Granos: Mundial , US & Argentina(in mm tons)19952012Abs. Var.% Var.Total Granos17612761100057%EEUU 24644720182%14%16%2%Argentina26502492%1,5%1,8%0,3%5Tabla Nr. "2"Variacion Produccion Oleaginosas: Mundial , US & Argentina(en mm. tons)19952012Abs. Var.% Var.Total Oleag28053725792%EEUU871001315%31%19%-12%Argentina185032178%6%9%3%

Ha sido esto un MILAGRO?SOLO Se necesita ++ Cambios +++ Tecnologia & BioTech+ +++ AudaciaESTE ES NUESTRO DESTINO

http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/6_week.gif

Muy malo /Malobueno/MAIZmuy malomaloregularbueno excelente% totalexcelentelunes 23 julioesta semana2124452923310026semana pasada1622383127410031hace 1 ao591434461611062SOJAesta semana1322353427410031semana pasada1020303630410034hace 1 ao381127491310062SORGOesta semana1525403420610026semana pasada1121323826410030hace 1 ao1722393424310027

VARIACION de las estimaciones Maiz de USAacresrindeproduccinproduccindif al aodif al cosechadasbushel/acreen bushelsen tonspasadousda JUNIOusdaao pasado84000000147,212364800000314080436usdajun 10-2012891000001661479060000037569860419,62%usdajul 11-201288900000146129794000003296919984,97%-12,25%privado88900000121,510801350000274366971-12,64%-26,97%julio 24-2012

Frases para la REFLEXION.Nadie se fundio por ganar poco (POCO???)Pocos venden en SUBA y casi todos venden en BAJA.Si llueve en EEUU la SOJA se DESTRUYE y el MAIZ no se RECUPERASi hay un patron de buenas lluvias en Sudamerica, vamos a 150 millones de toneladas (BAJISTA)Si sigue la seca en EEUU y no llueve en Sudamerica en las proximas cuatro semanas (EXPLOTA EL MERCADO)Chart1000000.04389782440.0101057250.04463773660.02028386950.00146754380.07498463820.00818026930.10776142230.0341894014-0.00389281470.0709156061-0.00001166940.15482699290.0448461404-0.00304797560.1368732012-0.01641888580.26547505260.0578558548-0.01048583710.123042293-0.00347748970.25813420.0661887034-0.01168208560.18123768680.01933624290.27959281210.09604735040.02725516510.21136372750.0115760730.38709615750.09762084810.04850359690.2268606795-0.02389898940.51811317150.12889302540.05199219980.2679733180.05584988450.52315044920.15668663840.05866715710.2846464250.05980582070.63982986040.14552091210.06327917740.31323945210.09384554340.7632957370.20146006630.06852118560.32270570570.13906457860.83010896580.18219707990.09569077430.369101540.13414007980.81230166320.19913908440.05752189030.45099529750.25847783980.95861212010.18400907450.10268982930.49070372930.34269610471.05726438540.19971496710.12207560950.529533740.42230494551.15205505640.21577569660.12626156870.63065773890.41070553361.19500095580.23952358790.1170611980.64608923150.24945737161.12021601990.26752661280.15790844060.71073552980.38076178031.27777671570.26398696990.18248625510.78076004540.32779424461.41761613460.29734744920.19038649480.82984393250.34234602191.50736952780.31881216920.2248283368

CornCottonSoybeansRiceWheatChange %

Sheet1Commodity1990199119921993199419951996199719981999200020012002200320042005200620072008200920102011Corn00.04389782440.07498463820.07091560610.13687320120.1230422930.18123768680.21136372750.22686067950.2679733180.2846464250.31323945210.32270570570.369101540.45099529750.49070372930.529533740.63065773890.64608923150.71073552980.78076004540.8298439325Cotton00.0101057250.0081802693-0.0000116694-0.0164188858-0.00347748970.01933624290.011576073-0.02389898940.05584988450.05980582070.09384554340.13906457860.13414007980.25847783980.34269610470.42230494550.41070553360.24945737160.38076178030.32779424460.3423460219Soybeans00.04463773660.10776142230.15482699290.26547505260.25813420.27959281210.38709615750.51811317150.52315044920.63982986040.7632957370.83010896580.81230166320.95861212011.05726438541.15205505641.19500095581.12021601991.27777671571.41761613461.5073695278Rice00.02028386950.03418940140.04484614040.05785585480.06618870340.09604735040.09762084810.12889302540.15668663840.14552091210.20146006630.18219707990.19913908440.18400907450.19971496710.21577569660.23952358790.26752661280.26398696990.29734744920.3188121692Wheat00.0014675438-0.0038928147-0.0030479756-0.0104858371-0.01168208560.02725516510.04850359690.05199219980.05866715710.06327917740.06852118560.09569077430.05752189030.10268982930.12207560950.12626156870.1170611980.15790844060.18248625510.19038649480.2248283368