Comité Nacional sobre el Clima Ministerio del Ambiente AN-MDL

Comit Nacional sobre el Clima Ministerio del AmbienteAN-MDL

Respuesta Ecuatoriana al Cambio Climtico

Ing. Luis Cceres SConsultor AN-MDL

Tabacundo, 1 de febrero del 2004

Cambio climtico ??

Cambio de clima atribuido directa o indirectamente a la actividad humana que altera la composicin de la atmsfera mundial y que se suma a la variabilidad del clima observada durante periodos de tiempo comparables.

CMNUCC, 1992

Porque el CC en el EcuadorCual es la respuesta en EcuadorCual es la institucionalidad en el Ecuador sobre CC Rol del Ministerio del AmbienteAlgunos resultadosAN-MDL

1. Porque cambio climtico en el Ecuador ?

Responsabilidades comunes pero diferenciadasProblema es globalEl problema lo tenemos en el pasEs un reto y una oportunidad

Fuente: INAMHI2001

Grfico1

92.7

319.3

186.7

119.1

140.5

507.5

139.3

344.9

247.7

767.6

68.2

351.4

1001.7

274.8

385.6

995.2

495.9

292.4

383

222.4

186.8

178.5

722.5

2783.3

63.2

51.6

311.3

1274.8

74.7

256.4

327.2

690.7

992.9

515.8

331.1

354.1

221.6

1565.3

1845.2

321.4

359.9

2783.3

1845.5

Precipitacin Anual

TENDENCIA

Media Mvil (5 per.)

AOS

mm

P R E C I P I T A C I O NSAN CRISTOBAL (VC=200%)

TEST

TEST DE TENDENCIA PRECIPITACION

ESTACION: San CristbalLATITUD: 0054'00" SLONGITUD: 8936'00" WALTITUD: 6 m.

ORDENAOSERIESERIEORDEN(Y')(Y')Y"(Y")Yi-i(Yi-i)

iORIGINALORDENADAYi(Yi-Ymed)

1196092.751.65-16256-14196416

21961319.363.219-2498117289

31962186.768.210-11121416749

41963119.174.76-15225-2424

51964140.592.78-13169-2248439

61965507.5119.1309812352924576

71966139.3139.37-14196-1625600

81967344.9140.5232498115225

91968247.7178.514-749-20400525

101969767.6186.734131693196124576

11197068.2186.83-18324-21441-864

121971351.4221.62439-1316912144

1319721001.7222.437162562144124576

141973274.8247.716-525-1214424

151974385.6256.428749-86413169

161975995.2274.8361522574920400

171976495.9292.4298641214412144

181977292.4311.317-416-10100-11

191978383.0319.32763614196864

201979222.4321.413-86424-749

211980186.8327.211-1010024-10100

221981178.5331.19-12144-24576-13169

231982722.5344.93312144-86410100

2419832783.3351.4412040039152117289

25198463.2354.12-1936111-23529

26198551.6359.91-20400-17289-25625

271986311.3383.018-39-20400-981

2819871274.8385.6381728934115610100

29198874.7495.94-17289-11121-25625

301989256.4507.515-636-636-15225

311990327.2515.82100-11121-10100

321991690.7690.73211121-3900

331992992.9722.5351419641624

341993515.8767.63110100981-39

351994331.1992.92211-39-13169

361995354.1995.22541613169-11121

371996221.61001.712-981-27729-25625

3819971565.31274.83918324-1111

3919981845.21565.340193612040011

401999321.41845.220-11-636-20400

412000359.92783.32652521441-15225

MEDIA=21SUMA=5740SUMA=10940SUMA=7882

TEST DE CORRELACION SERIALTEST DE TENDENCIA DE

SPEARMAN

R=270.00Rs=0.31

r=0.05

u(r)=0.46u(rs)=1.98

Tabla:0.3228Tabla:0.0478

DECISIONDECISION

NO EXISTE PERSISTENCIAEXISTE TENDENCIA CRECIENTE

GRAFICO

GRAFICO

92.7

319.3

186.7

119.1

140.5

507.5

139.3

344.9

247.7

767.6

68.2

351.4

1001.7

274.8

385.6

995.2

495.9

292.4

383

222.4

186.8

178.5

722.5

2783.3

63.2

51.6

311.3

1274.8

74.7

256.4

327.2

690.7

992.9

515.8

331.1

354.1

221.6

1565.3

1845.2

321.4

359.9

2783.3

1845.5

Precipitacin Anual

TENDENCIA

Media Mvil (5 per.)

AOS

mm

P R E C I P I T A C I O NSAN CRISTOBAL (VC=200%)

M221

codigoannoENEFEBMARABRMAYJUNJULAGOSEPOCTNOVDICTOTAL

M2211951100.4128.034.482.715.217.475.47.311.37.02.07.4488.5

M221195222.119.11.70.031.41.52.78.23.210.21.113.9115.1

M2211953179.3487.386.5458.1169.72.72.912.97.15.96.15.81424.3

M22119549.544.591.50.00.50.66.35.92.24.75.16.6177.4

M22119558.5195.987.012.02.12.96.57.46.94.76.94.4345.2

M22119564.7116.1291.3234.51.66.48.28.36.64.68.70.6691.6

M22119573.4258.4346.1178.841.06.35.69.54.611.014.774.9954.3

M221195847.6109.499.616.71.31.61.91.68.84.510.56.2309.7

M22119595.6180.0179.878.69.51.95.54.94.311.44.910.1496.5

M221196010.410.132.90.02.41.15.34.03.25.610.47.392.7

M221196157.1105.977.744.00.52.82.57.63.34.04.89.1319.3

M2211962135.15.40.00.09.32.15.27.96.93.54.37.0186.7

M221196325.521.914.80.06.41.82.98.38.814.22.312.2119.1

M221196466.356.96.80.90.21.11.20.41.30.42.62.4140.5

M221196538.266.454.1217.884.00.77.63.18.311.57.18.7507.5

M221196659.841.93.72.70.02.73.81.913.83.73.81.5139.3

M221196743.6204.851.718.70.01.84.32.12.74.92.18.2344.9

M221196821.249.8115.01.20.01.212.012.710.512.57.04.6247.7

M221196924.7103.4488.365.355.70.00.02.78.13.64.011.8767.6

M221197036.30.40.50.31.91.77.03.14.45.14.82.768.2

M22119717.723.8178.081.71.63.96.013.09.77.73.814.5351.4

M221197223.4110.7235.9380.0128.75.58.36.98.69.15.479.21001.7

M2211973185.453.03.210.01.23.53.61.52.13.51.06.8274.8

M22119745.3100.155.3180.74.018.83.510.03.11.42.90.5385.6

M22119755.5342.3464.3161.30.04.46.64.50.83.42.10.0995.2

M2211976104.553.418.0128.7108.410.212.08.89.54.38.030.1495.9

M2211977156.536.049.90.00.74.08.06.21.47.63.418.7292.4

M2211978191.991.661.40.42.40.25.06.14.43.33.313.0383.0

M221197936.2112.213.722.60.43.310.38.41.96.60.95.9222.4

M221198046.742.60.648.89.52.58.65.32.17.010.72.4186.8

M221198113.87.3110.214.61.02.22.52.02.47.32.812.4178.5

M221198214.856.64.011.40.53.09.15.27.27.655.0548.1722.5

M2211983554.5201.8320.3371.2490.5556.2253.96.34.15.54.514.52783.3

M22119843.513.87.80.00.011.91.22.915.04.00.82.363.2

M22119850.60.00.00.00.05.47.67.25.89.13.912.051.6

M221198620.168.7111.628.72.912.913.410.94.65.517.914.1311.3

M2211987139.4535.2243.8223.881.35.04.118.38.51.50.813.11274.8

M22119885.134.34.60.00.80.00.52.89.65.58.72.874.7

M221198916.714.865.4110.411.33.65.212.04.35.42.94.4256.4

M22119904.1191.950.429.11.810.37.05.64.36.510.85.4327.2

M221199114.6292.8230.46.61.422.85.910.65.420.05.674.6690.7

M2211992226.3191.3144.0298.5100.46.71.75.13.27.53.25.0992.9

M221199316.7229.8118.975.216.36.310.76.81.69.94.718.9515.8

M221199440.4147.83.60.00.08.318.68.55.35.85.787.1331.1

M2211995180.270.726.80.00.56.68.87.815.316.512.28.7354.1

M221199623.049.8115.60.00.00.01.83.23.16.04.314.8221.6

M22119972.4124.0269.4267.1145.942.147.333.90.849.0104.9478.51565.3

M2211998389.4215.0288.6589.7201.0144.56.32.30.63.52.71.61845.2

M22119991.326.4214.434.11.22.46.66.25.310.97.15.5321.4

M221200093.913.228.8105.119.37.322.915.017.212.95.618.7359.9

Grfico1

768.5

848.3

984.7

972

941.2

937

1122.5

1120.2

1038.9

847.7

347.2

902.5636363636

994.1

1085.7

721.2

693.1

1063.4

871.2

886.3

1090.4

908.5

1098.5

912.6

954.5

907.9

1264.6

946

858

886.8

811.8

974.8

1028.3

729.8

1093.6

1112.6

1053.9

1497.1

1251.7

Precipitacin Anual

TENDENCIA

Media Mvil (5 per.)

AOS

mm

P R E C I P I T A C I O NSAN GABRIEL (VC= 26%)

GRAFICO

GRAFICO

768.5

848.3

984.7

972

941.2

937

1122.5

1120.2

1038.9

847.7

347.2

902.5636363636

994.1

1085.7

721.2

693.1

1063.4

871.2

886.3

1090.4

908.5

1098.5

912.6

954.5

907.9

1264.6

946

858

886.8

811.8

974.8

1028.3

729.8

1093.6

1112.6

1053.9

1497.1

1251.7

Precipitacin Anual

TENDENCIA

Media Mvil (5 per.)

AOS

mm

P R E C I P I T A C I O NSAN GABRIEL (VC= 26%)

TEST


ESTACION: San GabrielLATITUD: 0036'15" NLONGITUD: 7749'10" WALTITUD: 2860 m.



11963768.5313.47-13169-39636

21964848.3347.210-10100-14196864

31965984.7597.1244162421441

41966972.0693.122243918324

51967941.2721.219-111114196

61968937.0729.818-24-1832412144

719691122.5768.536162561129841

819701120.2811.8351522586427729

919711038.9847.7277491832418324

101972847.7848.39-11121749-11

111973347.2858.02-1832411-981

121974313.4871.21-19361-24-11121

131975597.1886.33-17289-27729-10100

1419761085.7886.830101002562516256

151977721.2907.95-1522511-10100

161978693.1908.54-16256-25625-12144

1719791063.4912.6299811728912144

181980871.2937.012-864-11-636

191981886.3941.213-749-18324-636

2019821090.4946.031111211522511121

211983908.5954.516-416-17289-525

2219841098.5972.033131691625611121

231985912.6974.817-39-416-636

241986954.5984.72111636-39

251987907.91008.715-525-23529-10100

2619881264.61028.338183241832412144

271989946.01038.92000981-749

281990858.01053.911-981-39-17289

291991886.81063.414-636636-15225

301992811.81085.78-12144-15225-22484

311993974.81090.42339-39-864

3219941028.31093.62663620400-636

331995729.81098.56-14196-26676-27729

3419961093.61112.63212144-24-24

3519971112.61120.23414196636-11

3619981053.91122.52886439-864

3719991008.71251.725525-12144-12144

3820001251.71264.6371728930900-11



SPEARMAN

R=687.00Rs=0.26

r=0.15

u(r)=1.08u(rs)=1.58


DECISIONDECISION

NO EXISTE PERSISTENCIANO EXISTE TENDENCIA

M103

codigoannoENEFEBMARABRMAYJUNJULAGOSEPOCTNOVDICTOTAL MEDIA

M1031951209.8142.6131.469.616940.862.930.427.9126.9170.3169.61351.2112.6

M1031952131.7122.797.4108.144.754.642.537.616.633.683115.1887.674.0

M103195378.8102.496.18881.774.361.918.163.4304113.2134.21216.1101.3

M103195471.558.9134.4104.863.666.438.3100.931.6192.461233.31157.196.4

M1031955182.564124.663.558.766.563.940.724.981.699.2111.3981.481.8

M103195654.746.7116.8179.568.887.560.650.3106.7225.640179.41216.6101.4

M103195787.753.390.3132.3103.43082.8

1958

1959

1960

1961

M103196259.586.372.9

M103196397.9135.222.955.35268.323.38.411.589.2134.869.7768.564.0

M10319648.961.528.3129.33716731.360.647.675.475.2126.2848.370.7

M103196572.721.635.4117.293.930.656.157.992.8107.8162.1136.6984.782.1

M103196613.773.4102.766.22374.45638.741.6103.7145.1233.597281.0

M103196741.682.6158.568.528.586.95433.528.2106.1146106.8941.278.4

M103196849.8100.4122.6136.85074.878.527.263.6123.681.228.593778.1

M103196990.1113.864.6185.661.439.852.14789.8189.4108.780.21122.593.5

M103197088.5151.655.165.2119.785.253.383.770.5146.917525.51120.293.4

M1031971132.6104.3103.774.544.164.674.214.262.697.6201.165.41038.986.6

M1031972173.8104.573.8128.553.354.750.545.315.97567.84.6847.770.6

M10319732.66.21.339.251.930136.23.615.153.30.47.4347.228.9

M103197420.376.496.3105.55.49.5902.652.2

M103197562.5166.9164.1203.6994.1149.3

M103197667.7112.685.9203.472.444.845.44223.6114149.7124.21085.790.5

M103197734.953.553.897.75438.133.336.6110.63961.8107.9721.260.1

M10319785340101.9171.433.646.621.119.322.918.834.8129.7693.157.8

M103197953.453.8106.2186.464.735.833.168.948.891.9108.5211.91063.488.6

M103198053.7153.589.4126.642.841.818.422.433.8132.959.596.4871.272.6

M103198177.238178.770.564.435.838.333.526.434.1238.950.5886.373.9

M1031982147.3117.8141.1113109.69.779.735.360.878.866.5130.81090.490.9

M103198356.989.5141.2146.793.428.924.840.329.276.1101.580908.575.7

M1031984158.8103.1110.8163.7110.628.856.820.1101.6107.5116.120.61098.591.5

M1031985108.636.579.683.990.939.157.243.361.190.266.4155.8912.676.1

M103198656.2101.3203.4090.730.840.638.255199.5109.229.6954.579.5

M103198749.727.3127121.2185.534.748.324.751.9153.638.245.8907.975.7

M103198860.579.440.6138.985111.572.757.7116131.9220.6149.81264.6105.4

M1031989101.793.1152.947.783.3117.670.635.94786.345.464.594678.8

M103199038.7123.938.655.1108.576.495.628.427.6133.046.585.785871.5

M103199183.462.0105.4122.893.561.150.575.323.823.4107.278.4886.873.9

M103199276.564.454.670.499.831.673.267.581.923.976.591.5811.867.7

M103199351.693.2153.383.396.617.855.441.546.254.4171.9109.6974.881.2

M1031994140.662.0151.3148.967.444.437.980.338.362.3123.571.41028.385.7

M103199516.647.070.298.770.139.536.128.419.678.2156.668.8729.860.8

M1031996168.2125.6152.7119.7111.190.341.738.540.584.231.090.11093.691.1

M1031997226.056.3112.372.975.082.537.434.991.073.0160.990.41112.692.7

M103199830.743.373.285.295.132.756.1107.944.3309.1110.366.01053.987.8

M1031999126.4151.2200.4125.5145.3101.851.152.482.445.2150.2265.21497.1124.8

M1032000169.0158.7145.0141.2296.3107.839.634.545.954.421.737.61251.7104.3

Grfico1

762.8

767.2

622.6

655.3

855.4

1335.3

971.7

1014.4

396.8

947

616.2

659.8

1437.3

1746.7

566.5

1548

1854.8

608.4

688.5

413.2

750.7

888

668.1

4230.7

845.3

329.2

725.5

2061.4

495.9

930.8

539.9

634.5

1517

1456.3

669.6

453.1

748.8

3002.8

3441.6

1001.1

1121

4230,7

3341,6

Precipitacin anual

TENDENCIA

Media Mvil (5 per.)

AOS

mm

P R E C I P I T A C I O NGUAYAQUIL (VC=97%)

TEST


ESTACION: GUAYAQUILLATITUD: 0209'12" SLONGITUD: 7953'00" WALTITUD: 5 m.



11960762.8329.220-11-1119361

21961767.2396.821001112119361

31962622.6413.210-11121-24749

41963655.3453.112-981-11121864

51964855.4495.92324-86418324

619651335.3539.9311010041625625

71966971.7566.527636-2420400

819671014.4608.4298642772921441

91968396.8616.22-19361-24576-749

101969947.0622.6265251728916256

111970616.2634.59-12144-416-24

121971659.8655.313-864-1936111

1319721437.3659.83211121-41619361

1419731746.7668.136152252984122484

151974566.5669.67-14196-28784-864

1619751548.0688.53514196-2419361

1719761854.8725.537162562984120400

181977608.4748.88-13169-864-10100

191978688.5750.716-52513169-39

201979413.2762.83-18324-16256-17289

211980750.7767.219-24-525-24

221981888.0845.324391010024

231982668.1855.414-749-27729-981

2419834230.7888.041204001936117289

251984845.3930.8221121441-39

261985329.2947.01-20400-16256-25625

271986725.5971.717-416-21441-10100

2819872061.41001.1381728933108910100

291988495.91014.45-16256-20400-24576

301989930.81121.02541619361-525

311990539.91335.36-15225-525-25625

321991634.51437.311-10100-23529-21441

3319921517.01456.334131691111

3419931456.31517.0331214418324-11

351994669.61548.015-63611121-20400

361995453.11746.74-17289-14196-321024

371996748.81854.818-39-21441-19361

3819973002.82061.43918324-1111

3919983441.63002.840193611214411

4019991001.13441.628749-24-12144

4120001121.04230.73098110100-11121



SPEARMAN

R=57.00Rs=0.13

r=0.01

u(r)=0.22u(rs)=0.85


DECISIONDECISION


GRAFICO

GRAFICO

762.8

767.2

622.6

655.3

855.4

1335.3

971.7

1014.4

396.8

947

616.2

659.8

1437.3

1746.7

566.5

1548

1854.8

608.4

688.5

413.2

750.7

888

668.1

4230.7

845.3

329.2

725.5

2061.4

495.9

930.8

539.9

634.5

1517

1456.3

669.6

453.1

748.8

3002.8

3441.6

1001.1

1121

4230,7

3341,6

Precipitacin anual

TENDENCIA

Media Mvil (5 per.)

AOS

mm

P R E C I P I T A C I O NGUAYAQUIL (VC=97%)

M056RR

0.7554770931

0.369891624

0.2773693424

0.6602201628

0.3416335872

0.1677555063

1907

1908

0.762997377

1.041247884

1911

1912

1913

1914

1.3103828952

-0.9684910356

0.7347393403

0.8268058471

0.8331866941

0.4514753107

-0.2223877107

0.6194283194

0.6018809901

0.2447814452

3.8098518226

1.2126192036

-0.1335116274

1.0246121043

2.2688772706

0.750235683

0.4398530536

2.3199240466

1.7053117475

0.2188022824

-0.1494637449

0.4268634722

-0.970997797

-0.679985596

2.6713264068

0.269621171

1.5296105674

-0.6902405287

1.2664006284

0.3749051466

0.4797333474

-0.4705570817

0.5713440795

-0.2859682933

0.7110390514

-0.6154934637

-0.4664551087

-0.8825774884

1.8828360267

-1.1300631973

-0.3151378797

-0.4938015958

1.6116500289

1.1627118645

0.1773267768

-0.42087763

-0.4108505848

-0.7403757552

-0.6658565776

-0.209853904

0.8837776954

0.0551791341

0.152487051

-1.2549454887

-0.001109052

-0.7549605483

-0.6556016449

1.1162228363

1.8213064305

-0.8682205827

1.3684941805

2.0676527025

-0.772735765

-0.5901979631

-1.2175719563

-0.4484520046

-0.1355626139

-0.6366869913

7.4820292748

-0.2328705308

-1.4089973665

-0.5058796277

2.5384680566

-1.0291090822

-0.0380268097

-0.9288386292

-0.7132571554

1.2978490886

1.159521441

-0.6332686804

-1.1266448864

-0.4527818651

Precipitacin Estandarizada

TENDENCIA

Media Mvil (5 per.)

AOS

mm

PRECIPITACION ESTANDARIZADAGUAYAQUIL

5.8

M05619017199.5207.8154.8149.478.259.154.967.7182.165.988.61901127919010.7554770931

M0561902209.174.9134.7195.5108.526.7826.215.486.7101.7122.419021109.819020.369891624

M0561903139.285.8131.986.8130.540.51.29.690.9104.4120.412819031069.219030.2773693424

M0561904193.3172.8125.1263.2166.316.95.46.796.939.992.158.619041237.219040.6602201628

M056190519051097.4*19050.3416335872

M05619066374.8126.3245.6150.727.320.435.44411.763.6158.319061021.119060.1677555063

M056190719071907

M056190819081908

M0561909124.5288.9110.2207.8216.944.1024.628.9107.966.861.719091282.319090.762997377

M056191093.9106.1237.6172.3134.343.518.525.185.3282.8122.882.219101404.419101.041247884

M0561911168.444.6165.119111911

M056191219121912

M056191319131913

M056191419141914

M0561915436.1425.4366.2108.5113.437.6000011.923.419151522.519151.3103828952

M0561916160.6112.814442.930.213.200004.614.21916522.51916-0.9684910356

M0561917169.4236.5348.7441.431.8000014.2027.919171269.919170.7347393403

M056191885.8437.1173119.1137.7155.40058.223.40120.619181310.319180.8268058471

M0561919121.7486.9485.688.4109.51800000319191313.119190.8331866941

M0561920248.7222.2315219.549.800000090.419201145.619200.4514753107

M0561921301.8232.9136.4148.613.2000000171921849.91921-0.2223877107

M0561922378.5363.2221158.829.200000068.619221219.319220.6194283194

M0561923370.3381215.9159.819.60000006519231211.619230.6018809901

M0561924482.6130.8161.3215.912.73.80000047.819241054.919240.2447814452

M0561925539.8508489596.9187.3171.41900012.795.219252619.319253.8098518226

M0561926304.8412.8609.6120.625.46.400000019261479.619261.2126192036

M0561927203.2247.6368.325.419000025.4001927888.91927-0.1335116274

M0561928101.6400482.6133.412757.206.412.7031.844.419281397.119281.0246121043

M0561929330.2666.8520.7279.450.80000069.825.419291943.119292.2688772706

M0561930115.6489.2187.4184.257.43.8000324.120319301276.719300.750235683

M0561931183.4320.8302.8260.630.51.800008.132.519311140.519310.4398530536

M0561932507.2223.8515.9506148.631.500008.923.619321965.519322.3199240466

M0561933401.8482.8405.1386.117000030019331695.819331.7053117475

M0561934219.2296.2380.5137.74.15.800000019341043.519340.2188022824

M0561935153.2552.2151.49.900000015.21935881.91935-0.1494637449

M0561936274.3457.7188.2135.179.5000000019361134.819360.4268634722

M056193743.9201.22715.3000000001937521.41937-0.970997797

M056193847.8331.5182.480.83.80000002.81938649.11938-0.679985596

M0561939354.6458.2525.5570.2109.764.30000037.219392119.719392.6713264068

M0561940262.1271.8193.8198.4139.7000000019401065.819400.269621171

M0561941163.8122.9331.2412.53631260000099.319411618.719411.5296105674

M0561942170.7195.853.6167.147.5000004.85.11942644.61942-0.6902405287

M0561943155394.2486.8257.4284.80003516919431503.219431.2664006284

M0561944158.2241.8586.4101.74.64.100001.813.41944111219440.3749051466

M0561945438370.215190.74.506.7000096.91945115819450.4797333474

M0561946201.2227.4186.2100.721.300003.800.419467411946-0.4705570817

M0561947124.4351.84831391022131386119471198.219470.5713440795

M05619482972589714619100040019488221948-0.2859682933

M0561949247.7411.9274.528138.801.52.50.10.600.919491259.519490.7110390514

M0561950174.428011923.70.51000.80.20.8771950677.41950-0.6154934637

M0561951243.751.455.21007143.292.45077.566.41951742.81951-0.4664551087

M0561952162.4179.7111.3839.39.80003.51.10.11952560.21952-0.8825774884

M0561953155.5517.2387.5572.9131.53.8200.402.9019531773.719531.8828360267

M056195475.2168.9132.461.2000.10.801.8011.21954451.61954-1.1300631973

M0561955273.6215236.948.41.81.90000.30.530.81955809.21955-0.3151378797

M0561956259.3192.6176.582.816.60.20.2000.901.71956730.81956-0.4938015958

M0561957148337.1427.2580.3107.831.12.40000.320.519571654.719571.6116500289

M0561958202.2595.3319.6224114.40.200000219581457.719581.1627118645

M0561959210.4194.9277.5237.541.200000063.819591025.319590.1773267768

M0561960198.289.6356.872.333.9000.500.50111960762.81960-0.42087763

M0561961161.8319.8146.4130.912.4301.7000.21961767.21961-0.4108505848

M0561962169.6181.7167.950.348.42.70000021962622.61962-0.7403757552

M056196356.7295.219048.417.800000047.21963655.31963-0.6658565776

M0561964266.995.3299.1177.112.6400000.401964855.41964-0.209853904

M0561965122.8126.6433.7385.1207.514.7002.23.15.63419651335.319650.8837776954

M0561966530.9164.418545.714.81.700.1018.40.610.11966971.719660.0551791341

M0561967502365.1116.710.811.40000800.419671014.419670.152487051

M056196890.6137.7131.423.400.90001101.81968396.81968-1.2549454887

M056196962100.8415197.524.8126.60000020.319699471969-0.001109052

M0561970128.684.7100.7128.11641.300001.77.11970616.21970-0.7549605483

M05619719565.4429.5547.93.7001.600.62.11971659.81971-0.6556016449

M0561972226.4330.4446.9142.734.6151.6000.40.70.610319721437.319721.1162228363

M0561973701.3210.2491.6180.7135.52.905.52.70016.319731746.719731.8213064305

M0561974174.4123.781.384.169.30.3002.63.4324.41974566.51974-0.8682205827

M0561975221502.7609.6192.94.61.41.40.809.41.42.81975154819751.3684941805

M0561976403.8589.4451187.3141.29.20.3000072.619761854.819762.0676527025

M0561977162.3146.1216.9580.100020.90.903.21977608.41977-0.772735765

M056197896.9244.1176.768.939.400000062.51978688.51978-0.5901979631

M056197965.76478.2190.414.200.100.500.101979413.21979-1.2175719563

M056198093.268.4175.6378.829.81.40.3000.40.22.61980750.71980-0.4484520046

M0561981117.6399.4230.495.80.200.2000044.419818881981-0.1355626139

M0561982126.889.86.71614.10000.66.3152.3255.51982668.11982-0.6366869913

M0561983601.7539.4833.2604.3638.8612.2292.519.717.441.166.419834230.719837.4820292748

M056198413.5378.1194.5181.636.51.3000.20.7038.91984845.31984-0.2328705308

M056198569.792.412621.37.3000.100012.41985329.21985-1.4089973665

M056198638744.540.8163.52.400004.90.382.11986725.51986-0.5058796277

M0561987353.1753.3489.7372.245.230.42.90.40.9040.319872061.419872.5384680566

M0561988166146.36.9141.210.800.30002.4221988495.91988-1.0291090822

M0561989353148283.9136.91.25.2000.21.4101989930.81989-0.0380268097

M056199057.2220.9146.581.24.313.500.202.5013.61990539.91005.68666666671990-0.9288386292

M0561991119.5316113.11149.71.90.30001.721.31991634.5752.22958882171991-0.7132571554

M0561992183.3233.1397.6502.6154.641.52.20.2000.21.71992151719921.2978490886

M0561993174.1493.5217.7346.7131.50.40000092.419931456.319931.159521441

M0561994158.1131166.7115.6144.500020.477.31994669.61994-0.6332686804

M056199598.3196.5105.241.760.23.1000.31.50.31995453.11995-1.1266448864

M0561996111.4405.5162.262.20.50.2000015.81996748.81996-0.4527818651

199799.4289.8545.4249198.728.181.99.711.799.6556.2833.319973002.8

1998392.2721.1911.31137.6201.768.77.500001.519983441.6

199965.3388.6318.9157.714.41.9001.70.20.352.119991001.1

2000158.9198.6347.1244.7156.18.5000.505.21.420001121

0

51-80947.5

438.8132166725

136.8421052632

&A

Pgina &P

Grfico1

693.2

657.2

751.4

671.6

1044.2

909

942.5

1063.4

880.5

1064.7

845

903.9

996.7

935.9

918.4

611

555.1

1018.6

727.7

926.8

1016.3

1052.2

987.0954545455

761.4

921.9

905.1

979.6

1139.3

939.4

825.9

1150.2

1172.9

731.7

761.4

800.1

851.7

1202.7

1062.5

Precipitacin Anual

TENDENCIA

Media Mvil (5 per.)

AOS

mm

P R E C I P I T A C I O NLOJA (VC=12%)

M033RR

CODIGOANNOV01V02V03V04V05V06V07V08V09V10V11V12ANNOANNO

M033193055.765.7117.535.132.469.311.658.132.9129.397.237.31930742.11930-0.9529668227

M03319319955.273.8141.221.540.214.339.119.926.529.844.21931604.71931-1.8469798501

M0331932178.29767.61042028.46337.574.135.538166.11932909.419320.1355948911

M0331933117.351.382.1123.868.824.519.548.135.3107.557.91211933857.11933-0.204702644

M033193429.2146.2128.387.59678.299.184.738.692.76869.219341017.719340.8402645481

M033193573.729.155.372.61798.487.286.198.47763.393.11935851.21935-0.2430918497

M0331936107.449.9133.397.641.296.829.820.447.941.411.626.81936704.11936-1.2002193339

M033193725.846.552.366.951.3101.966.641.479.83077.766.21937706.41937-1.1852540503

M033193842.781.7129.3130.948.562108.759.645.887.417.322.41938836.31938-0.3400408607

M033193926.762.981.6107.177.8103.814.243.244.88.740701939680.81939-1.3518241632

M033194010136.282.188.956.820.559.275.85447.3101.241.91940764.91940-0.804615316

M033194169.2156155.182.472.78.436.151.920.410.252.149.21941763.71941-0.81242329

M033194232.175.558.4123.494.134.59.72064.14138.254.11942645.11942-1.5841113908

M033194363221.188.1103.72552.734.789.238.552.4120.9171943906.319430.1154242915

M0331944155.955.993.283.747.557.434.153.935714285749.607142857156.20714285716.6100.41944794.451944-0.6123439553

M033194519451945

M033194619461946

M033194719471947

M033194819481948

M033194910542.388.56854.863.827.53242.560.240.525.41949650.51949-1.5489755076

M033195029.5113122.968.532.583.959.851.730.340.425.181.21950738.81950-0.9744387513

M0331951120.470.890.965.533.718.540814.645.751.670.21951629.91951-1.6830123953

M033195283.776.665.636.332.733.37.425.22.564.844.486.61952559.11952-2.1436828635

M033195382.8112.8179.1129.453.555.96112.367.371.880.657.71953964.219530.4921590389

M033195435.665.8127.659.641.418.944.440.736.7107.728.793.41954700.51954-1.223643256

M0331955107.682.8130111.28848.456.245.532.823.158.676.21955860.41955-0.1832307154

M033195674.3132.8139.485.551.393.278.331.288.8114.326.172.11956987.319560.6424625391

M033195735.368.962.17846.151.987546.82530.82539.43756644.4570.351957640.2751957-1.6155059531

M033195819581958

M033195919591959

M033196019601960

M033196119611961

M033196219621962

M033196338.258.26075.537.360764.715.982.551.2133.71963693.21963-1.2711417648

M033196441.147.557.87328.567.923.455134.455.237.635.81964657.21964-1.5053809859

M033196549.835.82087100.162.637.858.294.344.597.3641965751.41965-0.8924550239

M033196674.943110.376.341.243.546.333.423.261.469.748.41966671.61966-1.4116852974

M0331967110.9142.8118.88240.8113.8124.1112.160.37011.856.819671044.219671.0126906414

M0331968107.660.8214.651.433.137.910730.999.678.847.340196890919680.1329922331

M033196976.4114.452.3123.456.258.818.5126.238.439.569.3169.11969942.519690.3509648417

M0331970209.3156115.830.564.216963.941.147.279.4434419701063.419701.137618226

M033197180119.5144.557.341.460.962.954.945.973.2401001971880.51971-0.0524471503

M0331972111116.6201.2104.662.455.3102.524.549.342.1111.983.319721064.719721.1460768646

M0331973119.4169119.160.652.258.375.541.833.422.843.149.819738451973-0.2834330489

M033197450.489.9133.111.928.762.7122.631.747.391.7126.1107.81974903.919740.0998083435

M033197578.3210.867.987.456.3109.472.595.442.194.462.819.41975996.719750.7036250024

M0331976106.5163.885.2130.944.478.963.3113.114.419.75659.71976935.919760.3080209845

M033197773.8120.6140.4152.531.39330.957.552.672.432.560.91977918.419770.1941546964

M033197850.950.4132.58.973.762.947.443.943.135.816.744.819786111978-1.8059879864

M033197943.145.3172.190.619.79.47.629.635.936.220.844.81979555.11979-2.1697094437

M0331980152.3131.7151.218042.754.728.826.922.478.662.486.919801018.619800.8461205286

M033198166.987.6104.264.118.118.630.923.67.2127.560.9118.11981727.71981-1.0466625112

M0331982112.849.4143.4146.978.311.327.521.943.8122.937.2131.41982926.819820.2488105147

M0331983139.7133.7220.278.968.727.752.213.337.294.112.3138.319831016.319830.831155245

M033198449.7210173.2101.257.48475.530.546.696.173.754.319841052.219841.0647438017

M033198554.2107.1272727273124.445454545585.2227272727150.519.943.16348.9101.379.9109.51985987.119850.6411316345

M033198646.7128.489.2121.24114.833.125.457.258.156.3901986761.41986-0.8273885736

M033198764.187.3115.4112.864.710.894.648.240.984.8126.671.71987921.919870.216927954

M0331988116.4143.984.9111.155.226.865.646.64573.870.665.21988905.119880.1076163175

M0331989159.2161.6205.347.66344.334.734.164.2130.114.820.71989979.619890.5923613724

M0331990131.7161.3142.8131.177.18343.833.227.185.4107.811519901139.319901.631472584

M0331991113.1153.519759.670.16439.261.930.96122.666.51991939.419910.3307942421

M033199283.5125.394.19757.647.750.415.739.447.1103.664.51992825.91992-0.407709969

M033199385.4105.4317.293.423.450.362.729.245.691.548198.119931150.219931.7023950148

M0331994213.877.6285.5123.354.153.881.569.33729.642.8104.619941172.919941.850095857

M033199559.88893.452.864.710.133.619.922.336.8129121.31995731.71995-1.020635931

M033199698.3126.9153.297.830.746.538.634.437.157.91327761.4

M033199768.1109.2101.269.946.220.750.235.24259.973.6123.9800.1

M033199840.4101.9136.288.551.275.249.535.731.4116.785.839.2851.7

M0331999124.3299.1132.283.7120.258.959.850.281.727.848.1116.71202.7

M0332000152.1178.2192.110581.883.836.950.367.731.625.457.61062.5

888.5605519481

153.6890356091

82.5842696629

106.7415730337

&A

Pgina &P

GRAFICO

GRAFICO

693.2

657.2

751.4

671.6

1044.2

909

942.5

1063.4

880.5

1064.7

845

903.9

996.7

935.9

918.4

611

555.1

1018.6

727.7

926.8

1016.3

1052.2

987.0954545455

761.4

921.9

905.1

979.6

1139.3

939.4

825.9

1150.2

1172.9

731.7

761.4

800.1

851.7

1202.7

1062.5

Precipitacin Anual

TENDENCIA

Media Mvil (5 per.)

AOS

mm

P R E C I P I T A C I O NLOJA (VC=12%)

TEST

-0.9529668227

-1.8469798501

0.1355948911

-0.204702644

0.8402645481

-0.2430918497

-1.2002193339

-1.1852540503

-0.3400408607

-1.3518241632

-0.804615316

-0.81242329

-1.5841113908

0.1154242915

-0.6123439553

1945

1946

1947

1948

-1.5489755076

-0.9744387513

-1.6830123953

-2.1436828635

0.4921590389

-1.223643256

-0.1832307154

0.6424625391

-1.6155059531

1958

1959

1960

1961

1962

-1.2711417648

-1.5053809859

-0.8924550239

-1.4116852974

1.0126906414

0.1329922331

0.3509648417

1.137618226

-0.0524471503

1.1460768646

-0.2834330489

0.0998083435

0.7036250024

0.3080209845

0.1941546964

-1.8059879864

-2.1697094437

0.8461205286

-1.0466625112

0.2488105147

0.831155245

1.0647438017

0.6411316345

-0.8273885736

0.216927954

0.1076163175

0.5923613724

1.631472584

0.3307942421

-0.407709969

1.7023950148

1.850095857

-1.020635931

Precipitacin Estandarizada

TENDENCIA

Media Mvil (5 per.)

AOS

mm

PRECIPITACION ESTANDARIZADALOJA


ESTACION: LOJA ARGELIALATITUD: 0402'11" SLONGITUD: 7912'04" WALTITUD: 2160 m.



11963693.2555.15-1522524416

21964657.2611.03-17289-52511

31965751.4657.28-12144416525

41966671.6671.64-16256-2667600

519671044.2693.230101001214425625

61968909.0727.718-24-63612144

71969942.5731.724416-98117289

819701063.4751.433131691832425625

91971880.5761.415-525-19361636

1019721064.7761.434141962144124576

111973845.0800.113-749-3924

121974903.9825.916-416-11121416

131975996.7845.02774952514196

141976935.9851.7222439864

151977918.4880.519-1117289416

161978611.0903.92-1832411-14196

171979555.1905.11-19361-28784-16256

1819801018.6909.0299812352911121

191981727.7918.46-14196-15225-13169

201982926.8921.92111-74911

2119831016.3926.828864-39749

2219841052.2935.93111121525981

231985987.1939.4266361728939

241986761.4942.59-11121-11121-15225

251987921.9979.6200039-525

261988905.1987.117-39-864-981

271989979.6996.725525-10100-24

2819901139.31016.3351522512144749

291991939.41018.6233911121-636

301992825.91044.212-864-24576-18324

3119931150.21052.23616256-11525

3219941172.91062.5371728930900525

331995731.71063.47-13169-39-26676

341996761.41064.710-10100-11-24576

351997800.11139.311-981-39-24576

361998851.71150.214-636-24576-22484

3719991202.71172.9381832463611

3820001062.51202.7321214427729-636



SPEARMAN

R=645.00Rs=0.27

r=0.14

u(r)=1.02u(rs)=1.65


DECISIONDECISION


Que esperamos en el siglo XXI ??IPCC. 20011.4 - 5.8 GC9 - 88 CMVariacin de precitacin ???

Ecuador ???Inundaciones y sequas ms frecuentesExtensin geogrficamalaria, dengue,cleraPerdida yretroceso glaciares.......IPCC. SigloXXI

2. Cual es la respuesta en Ecuador ?Proceso del Cambio Climtico en Ecuador

Evolucin proceso1992: adopcin de la CMNUCC1993-1994: Inicio del Proceso del Cambio Climtico en Ecuador:Objetivos, sectores estratgicos, contactos actores claves nac. e internacionales, bsqueda de apoyo internacional, preparacin de documentos bsicos, etc.1996 - :Ejecucin de proyectos1998 - 1999: creacion CNC2000.Primera Comunicacin Nacional CMNUCC

Objetivos del proceso

Instalar una capacidad bsicaAnalizar el C.C y sus posibles impactos en reas estratgicas.Definir alternativas de respuesta para la toma de decisionesCumplir con compromisos internacionales

Proyectos ejecutadosEstudio del Cambio Climtico en Ecuador (USA)Evaluacin en la Cuenca Baja del Guayas (Holanda)CC:TRAIN (UNITAR)Mitigacin Energtica (RISO Dinamarca)GEF-PNUD ECU/99/G31 Cambio Climtico (CNC -MA)GEF-PNUD ECU/99/G31 Fase II (CNC - MA)

Areas y sectores estudiados

Resultados en Mitigacin

Resultados en adaptacin

Respuesta nacionalComit Nacional sobre el Clima44 estudios con apoyo internacionalInstitucionalCientficoPoltica internacionalAdopcin/ratificacinCMNUCC y PK. Comunicacin Nacional

3. Cual es la Institucionalidad en el Pas ?

Evolucin institucional1993-1995 : INAMHI19951998: INAMHI CAAM Ministerio del Ambiente1998 en adelante: Comit Nacional sobre el Clima Ministerio del Ambiente

Comit Nacional sobre el ClimaGrupos sectoriales de trabajo Directorio Consejo Nacional de Desarrollo Sustentable

DirectorioMinisterio del Ambiente (presidente)Ministerio de Energa y MinasMinisterio de Relaciones ExterioresCmaras de la Produccin de la CostaCmaras de la Produccin de la SierraCEDENMACONESUPINAMHI (secretara permanente)

Marco de accin Polticas y estrategiasDesarrollo capacidad nacionalCambio y variabilidad climticaTratados internacionalesMercado del carbonoGrupos sectoriales de trabajo Sinergas cambio climtico, biodiversidad y desertificacinDifusin y educacinCooperacin internacional

Grupos sectoriales de trabajo Energa (MEM)Forestal (MA)Marino costero (Sub. Gestin Costera) Recursos hdricos (CNRH)Salud (Min. Salud)Ciencia y evidencias CC (INAMHI) Agricultura (MAG)Formacin capacidades (CONESUP) Grupos IPCC (INAMHI, MA, MEM)

4. Cual es el rol del Ministerio del Ambiente ?

Rol del Ministerio del Ambiente en Cambio ClimticoPresidente del CNCGrupo forestal/c. ClimaticoTransf. TecnologaInventario GEI: proces. Indust, desechos

Autoridad NacionalMDLPunto Focal GEFAutoridad Ambiental

5. Algunos resultados

ESCENARIOS DE CAMBIO CLIMATICO

ECC1: T = + 1.0 GC ; RR = - 15%ECC2: T = +1.0 GC ; RR = + 20%ECC3: T = + 2.0 GC ; RR = - 15%ECC2: T = +2.0 GC ; RR = + 20%

IMPACTOS EN EL SECTOR FORESTAL

Modelo de Holdrigue (zonas de vida)Escenarios de cambio climticoResultado:El incremento o decremento de las reas de las zonas de vida Luego de este anlisis se determin una zonificacion nacional de reas vulnerables al cambio climtico.ZONA A: Oro, Guayas y ManabZONA B: Region interandinaZONA C: Loja y parte de El Oro

Emisiones de GEI : 1990

Categoras de fuentes y emisiones de GEI

CO2

CH4

N2O

NOX

CO

COVNM

1. Total de la energa (quema de combustibles + emisiones fugitivas)

18.877,80

41,07

0,49

85,92

615,63

132,93

a. Quema de combustibles

18.877,80

20,18

0,49

85,92

615,63

132,93

b. Emisiones fugitivas de combustibles

20,89

2. Procesos industriales

1.150,00

3. Agricultura

398,39

0,07

2,69

62,89

4. Cambio del uso del suelo y silvicultura

45.543,14

60,67

0,42

15,08

530,89

5. Desperdicios

64,02

Total nacional de emisiones y remociones

65.570,94

564,15

0,98

103,69

1.209,41

132,93

Emisiones sectoriales de CO2: 1990

Grfico3

28.8

69.5

1.7

Hoja1

Energtico28.8

Uso del suelo y silvicultura69.5

Produccin de cemento1.7

Hoja1

0

0

0

Hoja2

Hoja3

Emisiones sectoriales de Metano: 1990

Chart4

7

70

11

12

Sheet1

Energtico56

Uso del suelo y silvicultura40.7

Produccin de cemento3.3

Energtico7

Agrcola70

Cambio en el uso del suelo y silvicultura11

Desperdicios12

Sheet1

0

0

0

Sheet2

0

0

0

0

Sheet3

MBD00032880.xls

Grfico3

50.9

43.88

5.22

Hoja1

VALORES:

ENERGTICO55.9

USO DEL SUELO Y SILVICULTURA40.7

PRODUCCIN DE CEMENTO3

99.6

100

ENERGTICO50.9

CAMBIO EN EL USO DEL SUELO Y SILVICULTURA43.88

AGRCOLA5.22

Hoja1

Hoja2

Hoja3

Formulacin de proyectos (?)Estudios & investigacinGeneracin de polticasAN-MDL(MA)CORDELIM

INSTITUCIONALIDAD ECUATORIANA

ESTRUCTURA AN-MDLInstancia representativa:Ministro del Ambiente: Presidente AN-MDL Instancia operativaCoordinador AN-MDLGrupo Evaluador:??

PROCEDIMIENTOS DE LA AN-MDLDocumento Proyecto en preparacin:

Carta de RespaldoDocumento Proyecto listo

Carta de Aprobacin

PROCEDIMIENTOS AN-MDL

Procedimiento Carta de Respaldo Proyectos MDL (29-IV-2003)Procedimiento Carta Aprobacin Proyectos MDL (energticos) (29-IV-2003)Procedimiento Carta Aprobacin Proyectos Pequea Escala (25-VI-03)

Responsabilidades Revisin tcnica bsica:Coordinador AN-MDL Evaluacin:Grupo EvaluadorAprobacin:Presidente AN-MDL (Ministro del Ambiente)

PAGINA WEB

www.ambiente.gov.ec/cambioclimatico/inicio.html/

Gracias

Comité Nacional sobre el Clima Ministerio del Ambiente AN-MDL

Documents

Transcript of Comité Nacional sobre el Clima Ministerio del Ambiente AN-MDL