pendiente:Paso 1 Paso 2 Paso 4 Paso 5 Paso 7

Día DíaSemana Pedidos PMS (n=5) I prelim It St St^1 Lu 3915 909.60000 3005.40000 3012.728462 Ma 3320 299.05000 3020.95000 3014.699423 Mi 2411 3019 -608.0 -608.20000 3019.20000 3016.670384 Ju 2118 3020.8 -902.8 -908.10000 3026.10000 3018.641355 Vi 3331 3020.6 310.4 308.75000 3022.25000 3020.612316 Lu 3924 3023 901.0 909.60000 3014.40000 3022.583277 Ma 3319 3023.4 295.6 299.05000 3019.95000 3024.554238 Mi 2423 3025.2 -602.2 -608.20000 3031.20000 3026.525199 Ju 2120 3028.8 -908.8 -908.10000 3028.10000 3028.49615

10 Vi 3340 3030.8 309.2 308.75000 3031.25000 3030.4671211 Lu 3942 3031.2 910.8 909.60000 3032.40000 3032.4380812 Ma 3329 3032.8 296.2 299.05000 3029.95000 3034.4090413 Mi 2425 3035.4 -610.4 -608.20000 3033.20000 3036.3800014 Ju 2128 3036.2 -908.2 -908.10000 3036.10000 3038.3509615 Vi 3353 3040.8 312.2 308.75000 3044.25000 3040.3219216 Lu 3946 3042.6 903.4 909.60000 3036.40000 3042.2928817 Ma 3352 3044.8 307.2 299.05000 3052.95000 3044.2638518 Mi 2434 3045.2 -611.2 -608.20000 3042.20000 3046.2348119 Ju 2139 3051.6 -912.6 -908.10000 3047.10000 3048.2057720 Vi 3355 3051.8 303.2 308.75000 3046.25000 3050.1767321 Lu 3978 3054.8 923.2 909.60000 3068.40000 3052.1476922 Ma 3353 3055.8 297.2 299.05000 3053.95000 3054.1186523 Mi 2449 3058.2 -609.2 -608.20000 3057.20000 3056.0896224 Ju 2144 -908.10000 3052.10000 3058.0605825 Vi 3367 308.75000 3058.25000 3060.0315426 909.60000 3062.0025027 299.05000 3063.9734628 -608.20000 3065.9444229 -908.10000 3067.9153830 308.75000 3069.88635

Paso 3.Día Índice Estac.

Resultados de la regresión S^

Pedidos

Paso 0. Ver la gráfica y determinar L -->1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14

0500

1000

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 92000.00000

2200.00000

2400.00000

2600.00000

2800.00000

3000.00000

3200.00000

Paso 6

1.9709615 intercepto: 3010.7575Paso 8

Ft error RSE abs error MAD TS LI LS3922.32846 -7.32846 -7.32846 7.32846 7.32846 -1.00000 -3.75 3.753313.74942 6.25058 -1.07788 6.25058 6.78952 -0.15876 -3.75 3.752408.47038 2.52962 1.45173 2.52962 5.36955 0.27036 -3.75 3.752110.54135 7.45865 8.91038 7.45865 5.89183 1.51233 -3.75 3.753329.36231 1.63769 10.54808 1.63769 5.04100 2.09246 -3.75 3.753932.18327 -8.18327 2.36481 8.18327 5.56471 0.42497 -3.75 3.753323.60423 -4.60423 -2.23942 4.60423 5.42750 -0.41261 -3.75 3.752418.32519 4.67481 2.43538 4.67481 5.33341 0.45663 -3.75 3.752120.39615 -0.39615 2.03923 0.39615 4.78483 0.42619 -3.75 3.753339.21712 0.78288 2.82212 0.78288 4.38463 0.64364 -3.75 3.753942.03808 -0.03808 2.78404 0.03808 3.98949 0.69784 -3.75 3.753333.45904 -4.45904 -1.67500 4.45904 4.02862 -0.41577 -3.75 3.752428.18000 -3.18000 -4.85500 3.18000 3.96334 -1.22498 -3.75 3.752130.25096 -2.25096 -7.10596 2.25096 3.84103 -1.85001 -3.75 3.753349.07192 3.92808 -3.17788 3.92808 3.84683 -0.82610 -3.75 3.753951.89288 -5.89288 -9.07077 5.89288 3.97471 -2.28212 -3.75 3.753343.31385 8.68615 -0.38462 8.68615 4.25186 -0.09046 -3.75 3.752438.03481 -4.03481 -4.41942 4.03481 4.23980 -1.04237 -3.75 3.752140.10577 -1.10577 -5.52519 1.10577 4.07485 -1.35593 -3.75 3.753358.92673 -3.92673 -9.45192 3.92673 4.06744 -2.32380 -3.75 3.753961.74769 16.25231 6.80038 16.25231 4.64767 1.46318 -3.75 3.753353.16865 -0.16865 6.63173 0.16865 4.44408 1.49226 -3.75 3.752447.88962 1.11038 7.74212 1.11038 4.29914 1.80085 -3.75 3.752149.96058 -5.96058 1.78154 5.96058 4.36837 0.40783 -3.75 3.753368.78154 -1.78154 0.00000 1.78154 4.26489 0.00000 -3.75 3.753971.602503363.023462457.744422159.815383378.63635

Resultados de la regresión S^t = a + b t

4000

4500

Pronósticos

Pedidos

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 220

500

1000

1500

Pedidos Ft

14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25

9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25

St

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25

-5.00000-4.00000-3.00000-2.00000-1.000000.000001.000002.000003.000004.000005.00000

Tracking Signal

TS LI LS

22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30