Ejercicio de Pronóstico (ECONOMETRIA)
-
Upload
carlos-eduardo-cardozo-munar -
Category
Documents
-
view
35 -
download
5
description
Transcript of Ejercicio de Pronóstico (ECONOMETRIA)
Hoja1Tasa de inflacin y aumento del salario mnimo por aoAoTasa de inflacinAumento nominal del salario mnimo198126.35%35.71%198224.03%30.00%198316.64%24.98%198418.28%22.00%198522.45%20.00%198620.95%24.00%198724.02%22.00%198828.12%25.00%198926.12%27.00%199032.37%26.00%199126.82%26.07%199225.14%26.04%199322.61%25.03%199422.60%21.09%199519.47%20.50%199621.64%19.50%199717.68%21.02%199816.70%18.50%19999.23%16.01%20008.75%10.00%20017.65%9.96%20026.99%8.04%20036.49%7.44%20045.50%7.83%20054.85%6.56%y = 0,8619x + 0,041R = 0,8081En este ejemplo a = 0,041 y b = 0,8619. El lector puede verificar estos resultados utilizando la frmula deducida arriba para cada coeficiente. La recta Y = 0,041 + 0,8619(inflacin) es la recta de mnimos cuadrados. De este modo, si se utiliza este modelo para pronosticar el aumento de salario mnimo basados en la inflacin, entonces se dira que para pronosticar el aumento del salario mnimo se toma el 86,19% de la inflacin y se le aade 4,1%.
nAoTasa de inflacinAumento nominal del salario mnimoX^2Y^2XYY"Y-Y1198126.35%35.71%6.94%12.75%0.094095850.26813-0.088972198224.03%30.00%5.77%9.00%0.072090000.24814-0.051863198316.64%24.98%2.77%6.24%0.041566720.18444-0.065364198418.28%22.00%3.34%4.84%0.040216000.19858-0.021425198522.45%20.00%5.04%4.00%0.044900000.234520.034526198620.95%24.00%4.39%5.76%0.050280000.22159-0.018417198724.02%22.00%5.77%4.84%0.052844000.248050.028058198828.12%25.00%7.91%6.25%0.070300000.283390.033399198926.12%27.00%6.82%7.29%0.070524000.26615-0.0038510199032.37%26.00%10.48%6.76%0.084162000.320020.0600211199126.82%26.07%7.19%6.80%0.069919740.272180.0114812199225.14%26.04%6.32%6.78%0.065464560.25770-0.0027013199322.61%25.03%5.11%6.27%0.056592830.23590-0.0144014199422.60%21.09%5.11%4.45%0.047663400.235810.0249115199519.47%20.50%3.79%4.20%0.039913500.208830.0038316199621.64%19.50%4.68%3.80%0.042198000.227540.0325417199717.68%21.02%3.13%4.42%0.037163360.19341-0.0167918199816.70%18.50%2.79%3.42%0.030895000.18496-0.000041919999.23%16.01%0.85%2.56%0.014777230.12058-0.039522020008.75%10.00%0.77%1.00%0.008750000.116440.016442120017.65%9.96%0.59%0.99%0.007619400.106960.007362220026.99%8.04%0.49%0.65%0.005619960.101270.020872320036.49%7.44%0.42%0.55%0.004828560.096960.022562420045.50%7.83%0.30%0.61%0.004306500.088430.010132520054.85%6.56%0.24%0.43%0.003181600.082830.01723TOTALES4.6145 5.0028 1.0101 1.1467 1.0599 5.0028 -0.0000
PROMEDIO18.46%20.01%Sxx (Suma de Cuadrados de X)0.1583216Sxy (Sumatoria de Productos Cruzados)0.1364554a=Y-B1*X0.0410248309b=Sxy/Sxx0.8618873609
Hoja2Tasa de inflacin y aumento del salario mnimo por aoNAoTasa
de inflacinAumento nominal del salario mnimox^2Y^2xyY''
angeldejubilo96: angeldejubilo96:Y
estimaday-Y''1198126.35%35.71%0.069432250.127520410.094095852198224.03%30.00%0.057744090.090.072090003198316.64%24.98%0.027688960.062400040.041566724198418.28%22.00%0.033415840.04840.040216005198522.45%20.00%0.050400250.040.044900006198620.95%24.00%0.043890250.05760.050280007198724.02%22.00%0.057696040.04840.052844008198828.12%25.00%0.079073440.06250.070300009198926.12%27.00%0.068225440.07290.0705240010199032.37%26.00%0.104781690.06760.0841620011199126.82%26.07%0.071931240.067964490.0699197412199225.14%26.04%0.063201960.067808160.0654645613199322.61%25.03%0.051121210.062650090.0565928314199422.60%21.09%0.0510760.044478810.0476634015199519.47%20.50%0.037908090.0420250.0399135016199621.64%19.50%0.046828960.0380250.0421980017199717.68%21.02%0.031258240.044184040.0371633618199816.70%18.50%0.0278890.0342250.030895001919999.23%16.01%0.008519290.025632010.014777232020008.75%10.00%0.007656250.010.008750002120017.65%9.96%0.005852250.009920160.007619402220026.99%8.04%0.004886010.006464160.005619962320036.49%7.44%0.004212010.005535360.004828562420045.50%7.83%0.0030250.006130890.004306502520054.85%6.56%0.002352250.004303360.00318160Totales4.61455.00281.010066011.146666981.0598722100
PROMEDIO18.46%20.01%Sxx (Suma de Cuadrados de X)0.1583216Sxy (Sumatoria de Productos Cruzados)0.136455386a=Y-B1*X0.04102483090.0410248309b=Sxy/Sxx0.86188736090.8618873609
20065%8.41%
Hoja3NAoTasa de inflacinAumento nominal del salario mnimox^2Y^2xy1198126.35%35.71%6.94%12.75%9.41%2198224.03%30.00%5.77%9.00%7.21%3198316.64%24.98%2.77%6.24%4.16%4198418.28%22.00%3.34%4.84%4.02%5198522.45%20.00%5.04%4.00%4.49%6198620.95%24.00%4.39%5.76%5.03%7198724.02%22.00%5.77%4.84%5.28%8198828.12%25.00%7.91%6.25%7.03%9198926.12%27.00%6.82%7.29%7.05%10199032.37%26.00%10.48%6.76%8.42%11199126.82%26.07%7.19%6.80%6.99%12199225.14%26.04%6.32%6.78%6.55%13199322.61%25.03%5.11%6.27%5.66%14199422.60%21.09%5.11%4.45%4.77%15199519.47%20.50%3.79%4.20%3.99%16199622%19.50%4.68%3.80%4.22%17199717.68%21.02%3.13%4.42%3.72%18199816.70%18.50%2.79%3.42%3.09%1919999.23%16.01%0.85%2.56%1.48%2020008.75%10.00%0.77%1.00%0.88%2120017.65%9.96%0.59%0.99%0.76%2220026.99%8.04%0.49%0.65%0.56%2320036.49%7.44%0.42%0.55%0.48%2420045.50%7.83%0.30%0.61%0.43%2520054.85%6.56%0.24%0.43%0.32%4.615.001.011.151.06PROMEDIO18.46%20.01%Sxx (Suma de Cuadrados de X)0.1583216Sxy (Sumatoria de Productos Cruzados)0.136455386a=Y-B1*X4%4%b=Sxy/Sxx86%
Ejemplo yenniiAoSalario mnimo diarioSalario mnimo mensualVariacin % anual InflacinVariacin % anual Salariox2y2xyAoSalario mnimo diarioSalario mnimo mensualVariacin % anual SalarioVariacin % anual Inflacin1984376.611,298.00201521,478.33644,350.004.600%3.66%1985451.9213,558.0018.26%20.00%0.033342760.043.65%1986560.3816,811.0022.45%24.00%0.050400250.05765.39%1987683.6620,510.0020.95%22.00%0.043890250.04844.61%xy1988854.5825,637.0024.03%25.00%0.057744090.06256.01%PROMEDIO14.19%14.56%19891,085.3232,560.0028.12%27.00%0.079073440.07297.59%Sxx (Suma de Cuadrados de X)0.26657788819901,367.5041,025.0026.23%26.00%0.068801290.06766.82%Sxy (Sumatoria de Productos Cruzados)0.23473803619911,723.8751,716.0032.37%26.10%0.104781690.0681218.45%a=Y-B1*X0.020637 0.020637479219922,173.0065,190.0026.82%26.10%0.071931240.0681217.00%b=Sxy/Sxx0.88056079130.880560791319932,717.0081,510.0025.14%25.00%0.063201960.06256.29%19943,290.0098,700.0022.61%21.10%0.051121210.0445214.77%Y=A*bX5.2866%5.2866%19953,964.45118,934.0022.60%20.50%0.0510760.0420254.63%19964,737.50142,125.0019.47%19.50%0.037908090.0380253.80%19975,733.50172,005.0021.64%21.00%0.046828960.04414.54%19986,794.20203,826.0017.68%18.50%0.031258240.0342253.27%19997,882.00236,460.0016.70%16.00%0.0278890.02562.67%20008,670.00260,100.009.23%10.00%0.008519290.010.92%20019,533.33286,000.008.75%10.00%0.007656250.010.88%200210,300.00309,000.007.76%8.00%0.006021760.00640.62%200311,066.67332,000.006.99%7.40%0.004886010.0054760.52%200411,933.33358,000.006.49%7.80%0.004212010.0060840.51%200512,716.67381,500.005.50%6.60%0.0030250.0043560.36%200613,600.00408,000.004.85%6.90%0.002352250.0047610.33%200714,456.67433,700.004.48%6.30%0.002007040.0039690.28%200815,383.33461,500.005.69%6.40%0.003237610.0040960.36%200916,563.33496,900.007.67%7.70%0.005882890.0059290.59%201017,166.67515,000.002.00%3.60%0.00040.0012960.07%201117,853.33535,600.003.17%4.00%0.001004890.00160.13%201218,890.00566,700.003.73%5.80%0.001391290.0033640.22%201319,650.00589,500.002.44%4.02%0.000595360.001616040.10%201420,533.33616,000.001.94%4.50%0.000376360.0020250.09%425.76%436.82%0.870816480.8472100485.47%18.1271577619.08117124
Hoja4Numero de peridosAOSSalario mnimo diarioSalario mnimo mensualVariacin % anual Inflacin (Xi)Variacin % anual SMMLV (Y)x^2Variacin % anual Inflacin (Xi)Xi*YiVariacin % anual SMMLV (Yi)Variacin % anual SMMLV (Y)1984376.611,298.0011985451.9213,558.0018.26%20.00%0.0333427618.26%3.65%20.00%21986560.3816,811.0022.45%23.99%0.0504002522.45%5.39%23.99%31987683.6620,510.0020.95%22.00%0.0438902520.95%4.61%22.00%41988854.5825,637.0024.03%25.00%0.0577440924.03%6.01%25.00%519891,085.3232,560.0028.12%27.00%0.0790734428.12%7.59%27.00%619901,367.5041,025.0026.23%26.00%0.0688012926.23%6.82%26.00%719911,723.8751,716.0032.37%26.06%0.1047816932.37%8.44%26.06%819922,173.0065,190.0026.82%26.05%0.0719312426.82%6.99%26.05%919932,717.0081,510.0025.14%25.03%0.0632019625.14%6.29%25.03%1019943,290.0098,700.0022.61%21.09%0.0511212122.61%4.77%21.09%1119953,964.45118,934.0022.60%20.50%0.05107622.60%4.63%20.50%1219964,737.50142,125.0019.47%19.50%0.0379080919.47%3.80%19.50%1319975,733.50172,005.0021.64%21.02%0.0468289621.64%4.55%21.02%1419986,794.20203,826.0017.68%18.50%0.0312582417.68%3.27%18.50%1519997,882.00236,460.0016.70%16.01%0.02788916.70%2.67%16.01%1620008,670.00260,100.009.23%10.00%0.008519299.23%0.92%10.00%1720019,533.33286,000.008.75%9.96%0.007656258.75%0.87%9.96%18200210,300.00309,000.007.76%8.04%0.006021767.76%0.62%8.04%19200311,066.67332,000.006.99%7.44%0.004886016.99%0.52%7.44%20200411,933.33358,000.006.49%7.83%0.004212016.49%0.51%7.83%21200512,716.67381,500.005.50%6.56%0.0030255.50%0.36%6.56%22200613,600.00408,000.004.85%6.95%0.002352254.85%0.34%6.95%23200714,456.67433,700.004.48%6.30%0.002007044.48%0.28%6.30%24200815,383.33461,500.005.69%6.41%0.003237615.69%0.36%6.41%25200916,563.33496,900.007.67%7.67%0.005882897.67%0.59%7.67%26201017,166.67515,000.002.00%3.64%0.00042.00%0.07%3.64%27201117,853.33535,600.003.17%4.00%0.001004893.17%0.13%4.00%28201218,890.00566,700.003.73%5.81%0.001391293.73%0.22%5.81%29201319,650.00589,500.002.44%4.02%0.000595362.44%0.10%4.02%30201420,533.33616,000.001.94%4.50%0.000376361.94%0.09%4.50%Y=2,077%+(87,982%*Xestimada)20153.66%5.297%0.87081648425.76%85.46%436.90%18.12715776XYPROMEDIO14.19%14.56%a (Punto de corte)2.077%2.077%b (Pendiente) (Sxy/Sxx)87.982%87.982%sxx0.266577888sxy0.2345392301