Hoja1tiempoYtYt-1Yt-Yt-1-(Yt-)^2(Yt-)*(Yt-1-)tiempoYtYt-1Yt-Yt-1-(Yt-)^2(Yt-)*(Yt-1-)2002700-52.81802789.74112402002700-52.81802789.7411240200310170-21.818-52.818476.0251241152.38312420031010-21.8180476.025124020041321019.182-21.81884.309124-200.3328762004132709.182-52.81884.309124-484.9748762005116132-6.8189.18246.485124-62.6028762005116101-6.818-21.81846.485124148.7551242006103116-19.818-6.818392.753124135.1191242006103132-19.8189.182392.753124-181.9688762007116103-6.818-19.81846.485124135.1191242007116116-6.818-6.81846.48512446.485124200814311620.182-6.818407.313124-137.600876200814310320.182-19.818407.313124-399.966876200917614353.18220.1822828.3251241073.319124200917611653.182-6.8182828.325124-362.59487620101301767.18253.18251.581124381.95312420101301437.18220.18251.581124144.94712420111281305.1827.18226.85312437.21712420111281765.18253.18226.853124275.589124201213612813.1825.182173.76512468.309124201213613013.1827.182173.76512494.673124122.818Suma7323.6363642582.88324122.818Suma7323.636364-719.055884r10.3526777016r2-0.0981829037tiempoYtYt-1Yt-Yt-1-(Yt-)^2(Yt-)*(Yt-1-)tiempoYtYt-1Yt-Yt-1-(Yt-)^2(Yt-)*(Yt-1-)2002700-52.81802789.74112402002700-52.81802789.741124020031010-21.8180476.025124020031010-21.8180476.0251240200413209.182084.3091240200413209.182084.3091240200511670-6.818-52.81846.485124360.11312420051160-6.818046.48512402006103101-19.818-21.818392.753124432.389124200610370-19.818-52.818392.7531241046.7471242007116132-6.8189.18246.485124-62.6028762007116101-6.818-21.81846.485124148.755124200814311620.182-6.818407.313124-137.600876200814313220.1829.182407.313124185.311124200917610353.182-19.8182828.325124-1053.960876200917611653.182-6.8182828.325124-362.59487620101301167.182-6.81851.581124-48.96687620101301037.182-19.81851.581124-142.33287620111281435.18220.18226.853124104.58312420111281165.182-6.81826.853124-35.330876201213617613.18253.182173.765124701.045124201213614313.18220.182173.765124266.03912453.182122.818Suma7323.636364294.998992122.818Suma7323.6363641106.593868r30.0402803986r40.1510989641tiempoYtYt-1Yt-Yt-1-(Yt-)^2(Yt-)*(Yt-1-)tiempoYtYt-1Yt-Yt-1-(Yt-)^2(Yt-)*(Yt-1-)2002700-52.81802789.74112402002700-52.81802789.741124020031010-21.8180476.025124020031010-21.8180476.0251240200413209.182084.3091240200413209.182084.309124020051160-6.818046.485124020051160-6.818046.485124020061030-19.8180392.753124020061030-19.8180392.7531240200711670-6.818-52.81846.485124360.11312420071160-6.818046.4851240200814310120.182-21.818407.313124-440.33087620081437020.182-52.818407.313124-1065.972876200917613253.1829.1822828.325124488.317124200917610153.182-21.8182828.325124-1160.32487620101301167.182-6.81851.581124-48.96687620101301327.1829.18251.58112465.94512420111281035.182-19.81826.853124-102.69687620111281165.182-6.81826.853124-35.330876201213611613.182-6.818173.765124-89.874876201213610313.182-19.818173.765124-261.2408760122.818Suma7323.636364166.560744122.818Suma7323.636364-2456.92438r50.022742902r6-0.335478751tiempoYtYt-1Yt-Yt-1-(Yt-)^2(Yt-)*(Yt-1-)tiempoYtYt-1Yt-Yt-1-(Yt-)^2(Yt-)*(Yt-1-)2002700-52.81802789.74112402002700-52.81802789.741124020031010-21.8180476.025124020031010-21.8180476.0251240200413209.182084.3091240200413209.182084.309124020051160-6.818046.485124020051160-6.818046.485124020061030-19.8180392.753124020061030-19.8180392.753124020071160-6.818046.485124020071160-6.818046.48512402008143020.1820407.31312402008143020.1820407.313124020091767053.182-52.8182828.325124-2808.9668762009176053.18202828.325124020101301017.182-21.81851.581124-156.6968762010130707.182-52.81851.581124-379.33887620111281325.1829.18226.85312447.58112420111281015.182-21.81826.853124-113.060876201213611613.182-6.818173.765124-89.874876201213613213.1829.182173.765124121.037124122.818Suma7323.636364-3007.957504122.818Suma7323.636364-371.362628r7-0.4107191229r8-0.0507074095tiempoYtYt-1Yt-Yt-1-(Yt-)^2(Yt-)*(Yt-1-)tiempoYtYt-1Yt-Yt-1-(Yt-)^2(Yt-)*(Yt-1-)2002700-52.81802789.74112402002700-52.81802789.741124020031010-21.8180476.025124020031010-21.8180476.0251240200413209.182084.3091240200413209.182084.309124020051160-6.818046.485124020051160-6.818046.485124020061030-19.8180392.753124020061030-19.8180392.753124020071160-6.818046.485124020071160-6.818046.48512402008143020.1820407.31312402008143020.1820407.31312402009176053.18202828.32512402009176053.18202828.3251240201013007.182051.5811240201013007.182051.58112402011128705.182-52.81826.853124-273.702876201112805.182026.8531240201213610113.182-21.818173.765124-287.60487620121367013.182-52.818173.765124-696.246876122.818Suma7323.636364-561.307752122.818Suma7323.636364-696.246876r9-0.0766433127r9-0.0950684662AoRk20030.35267770162004-0.098182903720050.040280398620060.151098964120070.0227429022008-0.3354787512009-0.41071912292010-0.05070740952011-0.07664331272012-0.0766433127

Hoja2tiempoYttYt-t|Yt-t|(Yt-t)^2|Yt-t|/|Yt|Yt-t/Yt2002700000002003101000000200413210131319610.23484848480.30693069312005116116.333-0.3330.3330.1108890.0028706897-0.00286247242006103117-14141960.1359223301-0.11965811972007116111.6674.3334.33318.7748890.03735344830.03880286922008143120.66722.33322.333498.7628890.15617482520.1850795992200917614531319610.17613636360.21379310342010130149.667-19.66719.667386.7908890.1512846154-0.13140505252011128144.667-16.66716.667277.7888890.1302109375-0.1152094122012136131.3334.6674.66721.7808890.03431617650.035535623220131322014142.52015142.6Total1443322.0093341.0591178710.4110068316MAD16MSE369.1121482222MAPE11.7679763449MPE4.5667425736

Hoja3tiempoYt=.1Yt-t|Yt-t|(Yt-t)^2|Yt-t|/|Yt|Yt-t/YttiempoYt=.5Yt-t|Yt-t|(Yt-t)^2|Yt-t|/|Yt|Yt-t/Yt20027070000002002707000000200310173.1-27.927.9778.410.276-27.9200310185.5-15.515.5240.250.153-15.5200413278.99-53.0153.012810.060.402-53.012004132108.75-23.2523.25540.5630.176-23.25200511682.691-33.30933.3091109.4890.287-33.3092005116112.375-3.6253.62513.1410.031-3.625200610384.722-18.27818.278334.0850.177-18.2782006103107.6884.6884.68821.9770.0464.688200711687.85-28.1528.15792.4230.243-28.152007116111.844-4.1564.15617.2720.036-4.156200814393.365-49.63549.6352463.6330.347-49.6352008143127.422-15.57815.578242.6740.109-15.5782009176101.629-74.37174.3715531.0460.423-74.3712009176151.711-24.28924.289589.9560.138-24.2892010130104.466-25.53425.534651.9850.196-25.5342010130140.85610.85610.856117.8530.08410.8562011128106.819-21.18121.181448.6350.165-21.1812011128134.4286.4286.42841.3190.056.4282012136109.737-26.26326.263689.7450.193-26.2632012136135.214-0.7860.7860.6180.006-0.7862013131.3332013131.3332014142.52014142.52015142.62015137.9262Total357.63115609.5112.709-357.631Total109.1561825.6230.829-65.212MAD35.7631MAD10.9156MSE1560.9511MSE182.5623MAPE27.09MAPE8.29MPE-3576.31MPE-652.12tiempoYt=.9Yt-t|Yt-t|(Yt-t)^2|Yt-t|/|Yt|Yt-t/Yt2002707000000200310197.9-3.13.19.610.031-3.12004132128.59-3.413.4111.6280.026-3.412005116117.2591.2591.2591.5850.0111.2592006103104.4261.4261.4262.0330.0141.4262007116114.843-1.1571.1571.3390.01-1.1572008143140.184-2.8162.8167.930.02-2.8162009176172.418-3.5823.58212.8310.02-3.5822010130134.2424.2424.24217.9950.0334.2422011128128.6240.6240.6240.3890.0050.6242012136135.262-0.7380.7380.5450.005-0.7382013138.1672014144.66666666672015142.146Total22.35465.8850.175-7.252MAD2.2354MSE6.5885MAPE1.75

Hoja4tiempoYtLtTtt+pYt-t|Yt-t|(Yt-t)^2|Yt-t|/|Yt|Yt-t/Yt20027070070000002003101148.4714.847124.7148-23.714823.7148562.3920.235-23.71482004132150.90490816.4267208132.63953472-0.639534720.639534720.4090.005-0.639534722005116407.619847756841.6619847757108.23771003627.76228996387.762289963860.2530.0677.76228996382006103971.7966037678134.6754466749133.032289653-30.03228965330.032289653901.9380.292-30.03228965320071162695.365914878397.6861233738107.71180777118.28819222898.288192228968.6940.0718.28819222892008143838.753527087183.8762318838129.284092347113.715907652913.7159076529188.1260.09613.71590765292009176341.003958915734.1011507777174.66258962681.33741037321.33741037321.7890.0081.33741037322010130102.403694946310.240676405129.02045416040.97954583960.97954583960.960.0080.97954583962011128302.788070192230.2788991853136.2602649436-8.26026494368.260264943668.2320.065-8.260264943620121360.09512392650.0097849027133.77400901152.22599098852.22599098854.9550.0162.22599098852013143.42932943562014135.62101438782015137.27115444462016137.52387681982017138.4613437719Total96.95622636351857.7480.863-28.3375522696MAD9.6956226363MSE185.7748MAPE8.63MPE-283.375522696