CausalesRegresion linealRegresion MultipleCoefiente de determinacionCoeficiente de correlacionCoeficiente de detreminacion ajustadoEn un zoologico se require saber una formula que indique cual va a ser el peso final de una animal, teniendo en cuenta el peso con que tenia el animal hace un ao y la pr0porcion de comida que se le sumnistra. Los datos tomados estan a continuacion.AnimalPeso IniAlimentoPeso F1422729523322677333259804452921005393119763618370732173508412368094023092103223584XX'142272111111111113322642333345393632414032133259272226259292311183173236230235145292X'X1393111037324171361833731411391218132173241791218601365141236(X'X)-11402307.22-0.17-0.00132235-0.170.01-0.00-0.00-0.000.00(X'X)-1X-0.800.870.75-1.37-0.440.541.24-0.49-0.311.010.02-0.02-0.040.03-0.020.02-0.010.030.03-0.040.000.000.000.000.01-0.00-0.00-0.00-0.000.00(X'X)-1XYB0-11.7462918012B10.9648438666B20.2410327496y= BO+B1X1+B2X2Peso FPeso F est(yest-y prom)2(y-y prom)29594140.14156.25R20.8309789749777562.9330.25R2Ajustado0.782687253580830.006.25100102382.33306.2597101336.50210.257067237.25156.255061469.701056.2580854.826.2592820.0590.25847645.272.25Promedio8383Suma82582516792021

D constanteDemanda realPronostico Ultimo DatoPronostico Promedio GlobalPronostico Promedio Movil N=3Pronostico Promedio Movil N=5Pronostico Promedio Movil Ponderado N=3Pronostico Promedio Movil Ponderado N=3PronosticoSuavisacion exponencial simpletdtSt = dt-1et2St =dtet2Stet2Stet2St10.2914047284St10.010993505a =01161-----20.07-20.24St =a dt + (1-a) St-1et22165161.0016.00161.0016.00-----30.64-30.05161.0016.003158165.0049.00163.0025.00-----1et2-40.1379185515161.009.004158158.000.00161.3311.11161.3311.11--159.371.89-50.56161.009.005164158.0036.00160.5012.25160.3313.44--160.0415.68-1et2161.009.006152164.00144.00161.2084.64160.0064.00161.2084.64161.8296.49163.06122.27161.0081.007153152.001.00159.6744.44158.0025.00159.4040.96154.612.58155.536.38161.0064.008155153.004.00158.7113.80156.331.78157.004.00156.131.29154.670.11161.0036.009163155.0064.00158.2522.56153.3393.44156.4043.56153.9881.31156.7139.51161.004.0010159163.0016.00158.780.05157.004.00157.402.56159.510.26158.790.04161.004.0011163159.0016.00158.8017.64159.0016.00156.4043.56158.1223.81157.8526.49161.004.0012160163.009.00159.180.67161.672.78158.601.96162.717.37160.460.21161.001.0013160160.000.00159.250.56160.670.44160.000.00159.920.01161.011.02161.001.0014158160.004.00159.311.71161.009.00161.009.00160.878.26159.963.83161.009.0015155158.009.00159.2117.76159.3318.78160.0025.00158.7313.88159.5720.86161.0036.0016154155.001.00158.9324.34157.6713.44159.2027.04156.677.14156.948.65161.0049.0017162154.0064.00158.6311.39155.6740.11157.4021.16155.2445.74155.8338.13161.001.0018164162.004.00158.8226.80157.0049.00157.8038.44159.3921.27159.5619.67161.009.0019159164.0025.00159.110.01160.001.00158.600.16160.943.78161.014.06161.004.0020159159.000.00159.110.01161.677.11158.800.04160.231.52158.630.14161.004.0021Pronostico159.00159.10160.67159.60160.46159.91161.00e224.32e217.41e221.79e222.81e219.54e218.25e218.42ZmaxR1R2

usuario:Suma de los alfausuario:Suma de los alfa

D constante

DEMANDA

D tendenciaa =0.10.16= btdtStGtet2113adt-1 + (1-a)(St - 1 + Gt - 1)b(St - St - 1) + (1 - b)Gt-1(St-dt)221613.002.59931915.632.6011.35016142118.002.56952320.002.47962622.002.401672624.002.33483126.002.282593428.002.2336103624.530.002.2036113932.002.1749124134.002.14491340Go =2.5936.002.1216144738.002.1081154940.002.0881165242.002.07100175444.002.06100185746.002.05121196348.002.04225206250.451.002.19121Pronosticos53.19e257.8079032105Ft = ST +GT*k55.3957.58

D tendencia1316192123262631343639414047495254576362

DEMANDA

Estacional 1Ao(d3 prom-d2 prom) / LDprom + ((T-1) / 2) GTdt / (ST - GT (T-t))Ct Prom * RTrimestre123GTSTCtCt PromC't16069845.500176.830.520.500.520.510.512234266310T =121.921.851.871.881.873163188212L =41.281.261.241.261.254505964R =0.99390359430.380.380.360.370.37Promedio anual126.75145.5167.5L / Ct4.093.993.994.024.00Promedio Global146.58tdtGTSTCt1600.5122341.8731631.254505.5176.830.37d2 prom5696.56266145.57188859d3 prom98410.510310167.5112121264Ft des conociendo d131393FT+k = (ST + kGT)CT+k-gl14351152421674171041839219269

Estacional 16.5

DatosPromediosPromedio globalPeriodoDemandaGrafica

Estacional 2(d3 prom-d2 prom) / LDprom + ((T-1) / 2) GTdt / (ST - GT (T-t))Ct Prom * RGTSTCtCt PromC'tAo5.500176.830.520.500.520.510.50Trimestre1231.921.851.871.891.8716069841.281.261.241.271.262234266310T =120.380.380.360.380.373163188212L =44.093.993.994.044505964R =0.9899674789Promedio anual126.75145.5167.5L / CtPromedio Global (Dprom)146.58tdtGTSTCtCtC't1600.500.520.5222341.87a =0.151.871.8631631.26b =0.11.261.254505.5176.830.37g =0.20.370.37d2 prom5696.11188.440.524.022.56266B( ST - S T - 1 ) + (1 - B) B T - 1a( dT / C T - L) + (1 - a)(S T - 1 + G T - 1)g(dT / ST) + (1- g)CT - L145.57188859d3 prom984Nuevo R =0.99541237786.510310167.5112121264Si en el preiodo 13 d = 97131121436115243167317101

Estacional 260167.5146.5833333333234145.51635069266188598431021264

DatosPromediosPromedio global

MBD000281AB.unknown

MBD0009FF2B.unknown

MBD00029753.unknown

MBD000264C9.unknown