GENERACIÓN SOLAR TERMOELÉCTRICA GESTE 2010electrica.uc3m.es/geste/Anteriores/GESTE2010_10.pdf ·...

1ra. Jornada técnica de

GENERACIÓN SOLAR TERMOELÉCTRICA

GESTE 2010

Estado actual y perspectivas de futuro

Leganés, 4 de noviembre de 2010.

Organización: Edgardo D. Castronuovo, Julio Usaola García e Ismael Sánchez Rodríguez-Morcillo. Universidad Carlos III de Madrid.

Mayores informaciones: Edgardo D. Castronuovo, [email protected]

1ª Jornada Técnica

GENERACIÓN SOLAR TERMOELÉCTRICA

Ponente: Juan Casado Martín

Leganes, 04 de Noviembre de 2010

ª Jornada Técnica Generación Solar Termoeléctrica

Introduction 3

Market Potential & Development 46

Current Projects & Project Pipeline 34

Cost Reduction & Technology 11


Each year over 1 billion terawatt hours of solar radiation arrive at the Earth’s surface. This corresponds to about 70,000 times of the world's current electricity demand. Thus, solar power has the biggest potential of all renewable energies.

Solar Power is inexhaustible …

Introduction


Less than 3% of the total area of the Sahara desert covered with parabolic trough power plants would be sufficient to supply the world's electricity demand.

… usable at a vast number of sites …

Introduction


Biomass (1) Geothermal (1) Wind (30) Hydro (30)

Solar (250)

In the MENA counties,1 km² delivers about 1.5 million barrels of oil

Energy density in Brackets: typical amounts in GWhel/km²a

Source: Deutsches Luft- und Raumfahrtzentrum DLR

… and it offers the highest energy density

Introduction


The specialist for solar-thermal power plants

Solar Millennium AG

... is a successful pioneer with a long track-record thanks to the early entryinto the market (1998)

… developed the first parabolic trough power plants in Europe

… supplies the technology for Egypt’s first parabolic trough solar field

... pursues projects globally with an overall capacity of more than 2,000 MW

... has an experienced management and invests in R&D with the aim ofachieving and securing sustainable technology leadership

Introduction


Solar Millennium MENA GmbH

Inner Mongolia STP Development Co. Ltd.

Presencia deSolar Millennium

Mercadospotenciales

Mercados Potenciales

Solar Millennium Israel Ltd.

Worldwide activities of Solar Millennium

Particularly in India, China and further emerging market countries a substantial increase of energy consumption is expected


Projectdevelopment

Projectfinancing

Power plant investment

Technology Construction

Business Units

Minority holdings in power plant companies,

Blue Tower

Power plant investment &

Others

Engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) of solar thermal power plants

Technology and

Construction

Projectdevelopment and financing

Site selection and qualification,permission process,real estate procurement,

financing of power plant projects and sales of stakes

New

Old

New Segmentation of the Business Units

Introduction


Technology, Financing Expertise and Track Record combined

Financing

e.g. €190 million raised in six corporate

bonds

Finannnnciiing

Technology

!Salt storage!Skal-ET collector!HelioTrough collector

Track Record

!Pioneer in Spain!Fast Track List in the US!Desertec

Introduction


Introduction 3





Proven technology: parabolic troughs

The solar radiation is concentrated onto an absorber tube, situated at the focal line of the trough, and transferred into heat which is used to operate a steam turbine generating electricity.

Commercially operated plants in California since 1984 have generated revenues of over US$ 2 billion.

They can be operated as pure solar power plants or in hybrid systems.

Stable electricity production: Thermal storage means electricity production is independent of the momentary solar radiation.

Technology


Technical description

A parabolic trough power plant with thermal energy storage basically consists of three parts:

"solar field with heat transfer circuit

"storage system

"power plant block with turbine, generator and cooling circuit

Components of the parabolic trough power plant

solar field storage system power plant block

Technology


The electricity supplied from solar-thermal power plants fits ideally to the electricity demand in sunny countries (see graphic).

Stable electricity production even when the sun does not shine due to thermal storage device.

Solar thermal power plants provide grid stability in combination with other renewable energies.

Technology is already competitive for peak-rate market prices.

Base load

Peak load

Mid load

Typical electricity demand in sunny countries

(Costs per kWh)

Time of day (24h)

CSP plants ideal for market requirements

Technology


High-level STE industry roadmap

Cost Reduction & Technology


Expected cost reduction from 2010 to 2015



Expected cost reduction: impact DNI



History and outlook: CSP

Technology

ParabolicTrough

767.16 MW

Fresnel9.4 MW

Dish1.65 MW

Tower42.4 MW

CSP in operation until 2010

ParabolicTrough1759.22

MW

Fresnel30 MW

Dish1.01 MW

Tower17 MW

CSP under construction


• Bigger aperture• New fixing method• Simplification in steel part design

Advantages:

Less foundations

Less drives

Cost reduction

Higher precision

Easier installation

New development:

Parabolic Trough Collector

Technology


HelioTrough – The next collector generation

Technology

HelioTrough as important result of continuous R&D activities within the Solar Millennium Group

After SkalET, HelioTrough is the second collector generation developed by technology subsidiary Flagsol together with its partners

Higher optical efficiency, larger dimensions and more efficient assembling are expected to reduce costs substantially

Improving competitiveness

Test loop in permanent operation in commercial power plant in California since November 2009

Implementation into Solar Millennium’s solar power plants in California and Nevada planned


Parabolic Trough CollectorComparison of different parabolic shapes

Technology


Comparison LS2 – HelioTrough Comparison SKAL-ET – HelioTrough

LS-2 SKAL-ET 150 HelioTrough

Aperture width 5m 5.77m 6.78m

SCA-Length 48m 150m 191m

Net area (SCA) 235m² 818m² 1263m²

Annual thermal efficiency 38% 44% 48%

Parabolic Trough Collector

Performance results

Technology

ª Jornada Técnica Generación Solar Termoeléctrica Technology

Expectations (Development goals):

10 % less investment and erection costs for solar field

~ 9 % higher performance (better optical efficiency, lower auxiliary consumption)

In total: 20 % reduced solar field investment cost

Levelized Cost of Electricity: decrease by ~12 % compared to SKALET-Technology

Analysis of SKALET-Technology:

Identification of improvements

Parabolic Trough Collector: Helio-Trough vs. Skal-ET


Parabolic Trough Collector: Helio-Trough vs. Skal-ET

• 19% lower investment cost (solar field) • lower auxiliary consumption• 12 % lower LCOE

Technology


Parabolic Trough Collector: Helio-Trough

Technology


Entry into Blue Tower technology

Technology for use of regenerative feedstock to generate electricity and hydrogen

"Technology is to enable round-the-clock hybrid operation of solar-thermal power plants

"Demonstration project in Herten/Germany to prove marketability with financial volume of€ 24.6 million, subsidised by Land North Rhine-Westphalia with € 7.1 million

"Laying of foundation stone on March 5, 2009

"Start of commissioning at the end of 2009

"Capacity: ca. 13 MWth / 5 MWel

"Great potential worldwide

Technology


A climate-neutral gas, the“blue gas”, is generated from regenerative feedstock in different separated steps

Amongst others, the blue gas can be used to produce hydrogen

Multi-feedstock technology: Various regenerative feedstock can be used, e.g. chicken manure and olive stones, thus, nearly unlimited potential sites worldwide

Operating modeof the Blue Tower

Technology


Conceptual integration of the Blue Tower into the parabolic trough technologyBlue Tower as co-firing system for round-the-clock operation of the solar power plant

Solar field Storage Co-firing Power block

Technology


• Grupo de Trabajo 1 (GT1): Aspectos normativos relativos al conjunto de la central eléctrica termosolar.

•Subgrupo de trabajo "Año Meteorológico Tipo“: Definir una serie de términos y de procedimientos de generación de las series de datos que serán utilizadas en el diseño, simulación y análisis de las centrales solares termoeléctricas

• Grupo de Trabajo (GT 2): Aspectos normativos relativos a los componentes de la central eléctrica termosolar.

• Grupo de Trabajo (GT 3): Normalización sobre la caracterización del medio de almacenamiento térmico para aplicaciones de concentración solar.

Technology

Actualmente Solar Millennium participa en el subcomité AEN/CTN 206/SC “Sistemas de Energía Solar Termoeléctrica”


CAPACITY ADDER – producción diaria

Producir electricidad y cargar almacenamiento al mismo tiempo

Mantener producción de electricidad por la noche

Producir electricidad y cargar almacenamiento al mismo tiempo

Technology


SOLAR BOOSTER – producción diaria

Carga el almacenamiento hasta medio día sin producción de electricidad

Producción de electricidad entre las 12 y 17:59 utilizando la energía térmica del campo solar Y del almacenamiento

Carga almacenamiento después de las 6 del la tarde

Carga el almacenamiento hasta medio día sin producción de electricidad

Technology


SHIFTER – producción diaria

Carga del almacenamiento O producción de electricidad durante el día

Producción de electricidad durante periodos con altos factores TOD

Carga del almacenamiento O producción de electricidad durante el día

Technology


Further R&D activities

Solar Millennium permanently develops further existing and new technologies to improve and expand its cutting-edge portfolio

"Cost reduction: Direct steam production and direct heating-up of molten salt, respectively, in absorber tubes to increase the temperature and efficiency; optimisation of collector design

"Expansion of potential sites: Dry cooling of solar thermal power plants to minimise water consumption

"Expansion of possible usage: Desalinationof sea water; enhanced oil recovery by pressurised oil caves with steam produced in parabolic troughs

Technology


Introduction 3





May 2010

Andasol 2

Andasol 1

Andasol 3

an area equivalent to more than 200 soccer fields to collect solar power

The Andasol power plants

Current Projects & Project Pipeline


Andasol 1, 2 and 3 in Spain as reference projects for the world market

Andasol 1: on grid since Dec. 2008; successful bankability and sale of stakes

Andasol 2: on grid since June 2009; successful bankability and sale of stakes

Andasol 3: assembly of collectors completed; successful sale of stakes to investors incl. utilities and closed fund; commissioning planned for mid 2011

These three solar power plants together provide:

More than 1.5 million square meters of collector area (> 200 soccer fields)

About 22,000 collector elements with 270 km of absorber tubes

“Solar” electricity for more than half a million people

Avoiding up to 450.000 tons of carbon dioxide emission each year



Spain remains to be core market for Solar MillenniumBesides Andasol 3, Solar Millennium achieved pre-registration for Ibersol

50 MW in the Spanish province of Extremadura

Thermal storage allows dispatchibility of electricity generation

Project development finalized, purchase of key components

Deferral due to planned amendments in Spanish legislation(reimbursement according to feed-in tariff only from mid-2013 onwards)

50% sale of stake to Ferrostaal completed, further involvement of institutional and private investors (via fund) planned

Beginning of construction in fiscal year 2009/10, finalization in 2013 expected



First reference project in Egypt as an indication for the feasibility of Desertec

Construction of a natural gas/solar hybrid power plant (ISCC: Integrated Solar Combined Cycle) with a capacity of 150 MW

Technology subsidiary Flagsol responsible for engineering, supervision and delivery of key components

Assembly of the 130,000 square meters collector area finished, filling of heat transfer fluid

Start of construction at the beginning of 2008, commissioning planned for autumn 2010



First reference project in Egypt



Excellently positioned in USA Market (I)

"Power Purchase Agreement (PPA) signed with Southern California Edison (SCE) in 06/2009 for two 242-MW power plants with an option for a third one, all of them on fast-track list; Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) signed with Nevada Energy in 03/2009 for at least one 250 MW power plant in the Amargosa desert

"Four sites with a maximum capacity of 2500 MW are on the Fast-Track List of the US Bureau of Land Management



Excellent sites in California and Nevada for solar thermal power projects with an overall capacity of 2,000 MW on fast track list

Ridgecrest

Palen

Blythe!1!&!2

Armagosa

Future market USA (II): Solar Millennium projects



Future market USA (III): Focus on Blythe

" One of the first parabolic trough power plant projects of the “new generation” in the Californian Mojave Desert

" Site is good for up to four solar power plant of 242 MW each

" Excellent irradiation conditions

" Dry cooling (significant reduction of water demand)

" Long-term Power Purchase Agreement (PPA) for twoprojects signed with Southern California Edison

" Final building permit (CEC license and Record of Decision by BLM) expected in fall 2010

" Potential for up to 3,750 “green” jobs amongst suppliers and construction companies

h

Palen

Blythe 1 & 2

Mojave Desert

Ridgecrest



Mandating of Citigroup and Deutsche Bank as financial advisors for projects with a capital demand of about €1 billion per power plant

+Strengthening of the Solar Millennium Group through structural reorganization: founding of the Solar Trust of America LLC as US-American joint venture of Solar Millennium and Ferrostaal under majority ownership of Solar Millennium

Experienced former Citigroup MD John Clapp reinforces STA as new CFO

Future market USA (IV): Founding of Solar Trust of America to enhance market position in the US

70% 30%

Solar Millennium AG Ferrostaal AG



Future market USA (V): Several incentives within a supportive framework

Loanguarantee:

Federal loan guarantee

by the Departmentof Energy

(DoE)

ITC:

FederalInvestmentTax Credits

(ITC) or Cash Grants of up

to 30% ofthe total

investment

RPS:

RenewablePortfolio

Standards(RPS) oblige

utilities to generate

electricity on a renewable

basis

e.g. California: 20% by 2010 33% by 2020

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Part of Barack Obama’s 787 bn. US-$ stimulus package of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA) dedicated to support renewable energies – incentives based on three pillars:



" Environmental Impact Assessment and notice to the public !" Citigroup and Deutsche Bank mandated to structure financing (Oct. 2009) !

Future market USA (VI): Permitting and financing process for Blythe project on schedule

2010

...March

July

September

August

April

May

June

October

November

December

CEC* Staff Assessment/ BLM** Draft EIS (Environmental Impact Statement) !First discussions with potential third party cash and tax equity investors !

Representatives from USA, Europe and Asia at Investors Day at Andasol 3 !

Acceptance of PPA by California Public Utility Commission (CPUC) !Finalizing EPC term sheet with construction partners !

CEC Supplementary Staff Assessment/ Public Hearings !

Building permits: BLM Record of Decision (ROD) !Expected Financial Close: loans / equity secured

Beginning of construction / Notice to proceed

CEC Presiding Member Proposed Decision (PMPD)/ BLM Final EIS !

* CEC: California Energy Commission ** BLM: Bureau of Land Management

CEC decision/license !



Introduction 3





Import of solar power from the MENA deserts

Forecast of electricity supply in Europe

is a vision possible:

In 2050 Concentrating Solar Power Plants in the Mediterranean Region expected to deliver twice as much electricity per year as wind, PV, biomass and geothermal plants together. (Med-CSP-Study by German Aerospace Center, DLR)

In 2050, about 15 % of the European electricity demand could be metby solar imports from the Middle East and North Africa.(Trans-CSP-Study by German Aerospace Center, DLR)

Market Potential & Development


Dii GmbH founded in Munich 30/10/2009

Objective:

"Analyse and develop the technical, economic, political, social and ecological framework for carbon-free power generation in the deserts of North Africa

Among the DII's main goals are:

"Drafting of concrete business plans and associated financing concepts

"Initiating of industrial preparations for building a large number of networked solar thermal power plants distributed throughout the MENA region

"Produce sufficient power to meet around 15% of Europe's electricity requirements

"Providing a substantial portion of the power needs of the producer countries

All of the DII's activities will be aimed at developing viable investment plans within three years of its establishment including shareholders from different countries.



Interconnections: bottle neck

• HVDC:!Power transmission over large distance

• Selected reinforcement of!existing transmission grids

• Design for EUMENA!supergrid:!Mediterranean



Expected installed capacity of solar-thermal power plants in GW *

2,000 / 400 **

7,000 / 1,400 **

Studies:

The latest market studies show a significantly stronger market growth for solar-thermal power plants than older studies. By 2050,the word’s total installed capacity of solar-thermal power plants could reach a capacity of 1,000-1,500 GW.

Strong potential for market growth

* Some figures are calculated assuming CAGRs over 5 years derived from the respective studies** Capacity equivalent to the number of parabolic power plants of the Andasol type (Spain) / Blythe type (USA)

Compound Average Growth Rate (CAGR): 17.5% (AT Kearney)…29.5% (IEA CSP)


ª Jornada Técnica Generación Solar Termoeléctrica Market Potential & Development


Capacidad instalada y futuros desarrollos



Welcome to the Solar Millennium!


Contact

Juan Casado Martín

Solar Millennium AGVelázquez, 150 4ª plantaE-28042 MadridSpain

Tel.: +34 91 590 07 80Fax: +34 91 411 38 17Email: [email protected]: www.solarmillennium.de

Disclaimer:

The present presentation does not constitute a legally binding offer of participation or for the purchase of shares in the company. It is not to be viewed by the recipient as constituting the subject matter of a contract or as a contractual basis for investment. Only inquiries and assessments carried out by the recipient on his/her own account can form a basis for investment in the company. The presentation has been compiled solely on the basis of the company’s business model and range of services, as well as on market and competitive environment research based on sources available publicly. No guarantee or warranty is provided for the accuracy, precision and completeness or for the interpretation of the data and the commentary, nor is any other form of liability for the content of this presentation acknowledged.Budgeting is based on management assumptions and projections and reflects the market development and market opportunity perspectives at the time of compilation. The nature of the dynamic market environment is such that it is subject to constant changes and can therefore influence this budgeting content. No guarantee is provided for the budgeting feasibility.

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