HIDROLOGIA-DISTRIBUCIONES

UNIVERSIDAD NACIONAL

PEDRO RUIZ GALLO Facultad de Ingeniera Civil, Sistemas y Arquitectura

Escuela Profesional de Ingeniera Civil

APLICACIN PRUEBA DE BONDAD DE AJUSTES

ALUMNO : ZUMAETA LOZANO, Henry Paolo

CDIGO : 105273-H

CURSO : HIDROLOGIA

DOCENTE : Dr. Ing. WALTER MORALES UCHOFEN

CICLO ACADMICO : 2013 I

Lambayeque, 22 de Octubre del 2013

PRECIPITACION MAXIMA EN 24 HORAS ESTACION : PUCARA

LAT : 0602'30''

DPTO : CAJAMARCA

LONG : 7908'02''

PROV : JAEN

CATEGORIA: "PLU"

ALT : 1061.6 m.s.n.m DIST : PUCARA

Ao Enero Febrero Marzo Abril Mayo Junio Julio Agos. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dic. Pmax(24h)ANUAL

1991 12.0 25.0 20.0 25.0 11.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 8.0 4.0 20.0 25.0

1994 12.2 14.2 31.8 30.4 9.8 7.0 0.5 1.1 23.3 2.5 10.3 10.8 31.8

1996 9.5 10.4 40.7 22.1 4.5 10.3 0.0 1.3 10.3 20.7 20.7 11.8 40.7

1997 10.4 12.0 5.7 11.7 4.4 3.6 4.0 1.4 2.7 7.5 10.1 2.6 12.0

1998 17.2 50.4 30.2 30.5 20.4 7.9 0.0 5.3 60.1 40.8 30.3 11.8 60.1

1999 37.6 32.0 20.6 10.9 28.2 7.1 2.1 0.7 20.6 6.5 26.5 30.4 37.6

2000 20.5 70.5 10.1 35.9 14.1 10.2 1.8 4.6 20.5 2.6 10.4 12.7 70.5

2001 50.6 55.8 20.0 11.0 40.3 2.1 5.1 0.0 20.9 50.6 32.8 14.9 55.8

2002 19.6 8.3 14.6 30.2 18.4 4.5 10.1 0.0 1.3 40.6 17.8 11.4 40.6

2003 11.3 24.3 30.2 10.2 10.6 10.5 2.2 2.5 10.1 61.3 30.1 20.9 61.3

2004 10.7 20.0 10.9 50.1 10.4 2.4 7.9 0.0 31.4 20.4 28.3 40.1 50.1

2005 4.0 50.2 40.2 20.9 9.1 3.2 0.1 10.3 11.6 12.0 10.3 22.7 50.2

2007 47.2 10.2 44.0 21.8 16.5 1.1 3.1 7.8 5.3 45.6 60.7 26.4 60.7

2009 53.1 17.7 28.9 25.3 3.5 2.8 3.1 8.1 2.5 39.7 11.7 20.4 53.1

2010 7.1 38.0 45.1 12.5 8.2 3.6 0.3 2.2 7.1 42.6 9.2 27.6 45.1

2011 20.6 23.4 25.4 30.4 15.8 0.6 3.3 0.8 9.2 31.8 22.0 23.1 31.8

2012 11.9 21.0 30.4 39.8 12.6 1.7 0.8 0.5 1.0 28.3 27.6 24.7 39.8

PMax24hMENSUAL 53.1 70.5 45.1 50.1 40.3 10.5 10.1 10.3 60.1 61.3 60.7 40.1 70.5

PRECIPITACION MAXIMA EN 24 HORAS ANUAL ESTACION PUCARA

25.0 31.8

40.7

12.0

60.1

37.6

70.5

55.8

40.6

61.3

50.1 50.2

60.7 53.1

45.1

31.8

39.8

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

80.0

1991 1994 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2007 2009 2010 2011 2012

Pm

x 2

4h

AN

UA

L

AOS

PRECIPITACION MAXIMA EN 24 HORAS MENSUAL ESTACION PUCARA

DISTRIBUCION NORMAL PRECIPITACION MAXIMA EN 24 HORAS ESTACION PUCAR

Pmx 24h m Pmx 24h P(x) Z F(Z) |F(Z)-P(x)|

25 1 12 0.0556 -2.21 0.0136 0.0420

31.8 2 25 0.1111 -1.34 0.0899 0.0212

40.7 3 31.8 0.1667 -0.89 0.1876 0.0209

12 4 31.8 0.2222 -0.89 0.1876 0.0346

60.1 5 37.6 0.2778 -0.50 0.3088 0.0310

37.6 6 39.8 0.3333 -0.35 0.3623 0.0290

70.5 7 40.6 0.3889 -0.30 0.3826 0.0063

55.8 8 40.7 0.4444 -0.29 0.3851 0.0593

40.6 9 45.1 0.5000 0.00 0.5008 0.0008

61.3 10 50.1 0.5556 0.34 0.6316 0.0760

50.1 11 50.2 0.6111 0.34 0.6341 0.0230

50.2 12 53.1 0.6667 0.54 0.7042 0.0376

60.7 13 55.8 0.7222 0.72 0.7633 0.0411

53.1 14 60.1 0.7778 1.00 0.8424 0.0646

45.1 15 60.7 0.8333 1.04 0.8519 0.0185

31.8 16 61.3 0.8889 1.08 0.8609 0.0279

39.8 17 70.5 0.9444 1.70 0.9554 0.0109

53.1

70.5

45.1 50.1

40.3

10.5 10.1 10.3

60.1 61.3 60.7

40.1

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

80.0

Pm

x 2

4h

MEN

SUA

L

MESES

promedio 45.0705882 max 0.0760

desvest 14.9641139 0.318 N > 17 =0.05

Se ajustan a la distribucin normal <

TIEMPO DE RETORNO PRECIPITACION MAXIMA EN 24 HORAS ESTACION PUCARA

DISTRIBUCION NORMAL TR z f(z) precipitacion (X)

5 0.841621234 0.8 57.66470427

10 1.281551566 0.9 64.24787188

15 1.501085946 0.93333333 67.53300936

20 1.644853627 0.95 69.68436532

25 1.750686071 0.96 71.26805407

50 2.053748911 0.98 75.80312093

75 2.216362779 0.98666667 78.23649339

100 2.326347874 0.99 79.88232288

DISTRIBUCION GUMBEL PRECIPITACION MAXIMA EN 24 HORAS ESTACION PUCAR

x m X P(x)= m/(n+1) y=(xi-u)/ G(y) |G(y)-P(x)|

25 1 12 0.05556 -2.25640 0.00007 0.05548

31.8 2 25 0.11111 -1.14263 0.04350 0.06761

40.7 3 31.8 0.16667 -0.56004 0.17365 0.00698

12 4 31.8 0.22222 -0.56004 0.17365 0.04858

60.1 5 37.6 0.27778 -0.06312 0.34467 0.06690

37.6 6 39.8 0.33333 0.12537 0.41388 0.08055

70.5 7 40.6 0.38889 0.19391 0.43879 0.04990

55.8 8 40.7 0.44444 0.20247 0.44188 0.00256

40.6 9 45.1 0.50000 0.57944 0.57109 0.07109

61.3 10 50.1 0.55556 1.00782 0.69419 0.13863

50.1 11 50.2 0.61111 1.01639 0.69635 0.08524

50.2 12 53.1 0.66667 1.26484 0.75406 0.08739

60.7 13 55.8 0.72222 1.49617 0.79933 0.07710

53.1 14 60.1 0.77778 1.86457 0.85645 0.07867

45.1 15 60.7 0.83333 1.91597 0.86312 0.02979

31.8 16 61.3 0.88889 1.96738 0.86951 0.01938

39.8 17 70.5 0.94444 2.75559 0.93841 0.00604

45.07059

S 14.96411 0.13863

11.67201 0.318

u 38.33674

comparacin

los datos se ajustan a una distribucion gumbel

<


DISTRIBUCION GUMBEL

TR Precipitacion (X) G(Y)

5 55.84404979 0.8

10 64.60304437 0.9

15 69.54479509 0.933333333

20 73.00488226 0.95

25 75.67005723 0.96

50 83.88019959 0.98

75 88.65224734 0.986666667

100 92.02971954 0.99

DISTRIBUCION LOG NORMAL DE 2 PARAMETROS PRECIPITACION MAXIMA EN 24 HORAS ESTACION PUCAR

m x F(z) |F(Z)-P(X)|

1 12 -3.9305494 4.2376E-05 0.055555556 0.05551318

2 25 -1.660827747 0.048374023 0.111111111 0.06273709

3 31.8 -0.916827309 0.17961657 0.166666667 0.0129499

4 31.8 -0.916827309 0.17961657 0.222222222 0.04260565

5 37.6 -0.398734594 0.345044388 0.277777778 0.06726661

6 39.8 -0.222892238 0.411809689 0.333333333 0.07847636

7 40.6 -0.161350034 0.435908859 0.388888889 0.04701997

8 40.7 -0.153742665 0.438906321 0.444444444 0.00553812

9 45.1 0.163704394 0.565018071 0.5 0.06501807

10 50.1 0.488834838 0.687520684 0.555555556 0.13196513

11 50.2 0.495001128 0.689700338 0.611111111 0.07858923

12 53.1 0.668675839 0.748148858 0.666666667 0.08148219

13 55.8 0.822049107 0.794475526 0.722222222 0.0722533

14 60.1 1.05161596 0.853512109 0.777777778 0.07573433

15 60.7 1.082335355 0.860448229 0.833333333 0.0271149

16 61.3 1.112752588 0.867092648 0.888888889 0.02179624

17 70.5 1.545170864 0.93884753 0.944444444 0.00559691

P(X)

S 14.9641139

45.0705882

0.33201506

3.75594449

0.32337409

0.13196513

0.318 se adjunta a la distribucion lognormal


DISTRIBUCION LOGNORMAL DE 2 PARAMETROS TR z f(Z) precipitacin (X)

5 0.84162123 0.8 56.15428479

10 1.28155157 0.9 64.73908137

15 1.50108595 0.93333333 69.5020876

20 1.64485363 0.95 72.80957946

25 1.75068607 0.96 75.34450552

50 2.05374891 0.98 83.10240754

75 2.21636278 0.98666667 87.58929479

100 2.32634787 0.99 90.76058585

TIEMPOS DE RETORNOS SENGUN LAS DISTRUBUCIONES

PRECIPITACION MAXIMA EN 24 HORAS ESTACION PUCAR

57.6647 64.2479 67.5330 69.6844

71.2681 75.8031 78.2365 79.8823

55.8440

64.6030 69.5448 73.0049

75.6701 83.8802

88.6522 92.0297 56.1543

64.7391 69.5021

72.8096 75.3445

83.1024 87.5893

90.7606

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

5 10 15 20 25 50 75 100

Pm

x 2

4h

TIEMPO DE RETORNO

NORMAL

GUMBEL

LOGNORMAL

PRECIPITACION TOTAL MENSUAL

ESTACION : PUCARA

LAT : 0602'30''

DPTO : CAJAMARCA

LONG : 7908'02''

PROV : JAEN

CATEGORIA: "PLU"


PRECIPITACION TOTAL ANUAL ESTACION PUCARA

511.30

580.70

428.00

257.70

737.40 728.80 699.60

461.50 447.50

612.10

543.60

838.10

655.80

521.30

684.30 701.80

0.00

100.00

200.00

300.00

400.00

500.00

600.00

700.00

800.00

900.00

1991 1994 1996 1997 1998 1999 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2007 2009 2010 2011 2012

PTA

AOS

Ao Enero Febrero Marzo Abril Mayo Junio Julio Agosto Sept. Oct. Nov. Dic. PTA

1991 34.00 141.00 100.00 128.00 32.00 0.00 1.00 0.00 0.00 8.00 4.00 63.30 511.30

1994 49.20 72.10 136.00 131.00 30.60 8.00 0.20 1.70 44.40 6.60 57.40 43.50 580.70

1996 23.80 49.70 101.20 75.90 13.50 16.20 0.00 1.40 13.10 60.70 50.20 22.30 428.00

1997 40.30 66.00 8.70 44.70 9.20 11.30 4.80 1.40 2.90 23.70 36.70 8.00 257.70

1998 35.00 69.20 175.30 145.80 44.50 13.70 0.00 10.10 70.00 89.10 48.80 35.90 737.40

1999 86.00 148.50 77.20 55.40 82.10 30.60 6.90 0.80 82.20 29.90 40.30 88.90 728.80

2001 121.00 69.10 139.30 25.60 66.20 3.90 11.00 0.00 49.40 86.80 71.60 55.70 699.60

2002 33.00 40.40 29.20 85.50 24.60 5.10 23.50 0.00 2.50 99.80 70.60 47.30 461.50

2003 18.90 57.60 87.10 33.30 29.10 24.40 3.00 2.50 12.20 77.20 54.90 47.30 447.50

2004 24.70 27.10 13.90 137.80 48.30 4.00 11.20 0.00 48.20 96.10 91.10 109.70 612.10

2005 9.90 112.50 171.20 32.50 14.30 6.80 0.10 11.00 18.70 50.20 17.10 99.30 543.60

2007 68.40 27.30 123.70 92.80 61.60 1.10 9.70 12.50 7.70 159.60 233.80 39.90 838.10

2009 144.90 79.30 144.60 95.30 7.70 8.90 6.40 9.70 6.20 73.30 44.20 35.30 655.80

2010 12.20 131.20 114.60 55.80 16.30 4.10 0.30 3.10 12.60 61.90 23.40 85.80 521.30

2011 39.70 78.40 70.90 145.20 50.00 2.30 4.20 1.00 21.90 100.80 54.90 115.00 684.30

2012 92.80 99.20 113.70 103.40 13.40 3.80 2.20 1.00 2.60 116.60 86.20 66.90 701.80

PTMP 52.113 79.288 100.41 86.75 34 9.013 5.281 3.5125 24.66 71.27 61.58 60.26 588.09

PRECIPITACION TOTAL MENSUAL PROMEDIO ESTACION PUCARA

DISTRIBUCION NORMAL PRECIPITACION TOTAL MENSUAL ESTACION PUCAR

PTM P(x) Z F(Z) |F(Z)-P(x)|

257.7 0.0588 -2.24 0.0127 0.0462

428.0 0.1176 -1.08 0.1392 0.0216

447.5 0.1765 -0.95 0.1706 0.0058

461.5 0.2353 -0.86 0.1957 0.0396

511.3 0.2941 -0.52 0.3016 0.0075

521.3 0.3529 -0.45 0.3256 0.0274

543.6 0.4118 -0.30 0.3816 0.0301

580.7 0.4706 -0.05 0.4800 0.0095

612.1 0.5294 0.16 0.5645 0.0351

655.8 0.5882 0.46 0.6766 0.0884

684.3 0.6471 0.65 0.7426 0.0955

699.6 0.7059 0.75 0.7748 0.0689

701.8 0.7647 0.77 0.7793 0.0146

728.8 0.8235 0.95 0.8296 0.0060

737.4 0.8824 1.01 0.8439 0.0384

838.1 0.9412 1.69 0.9547 0.0135

52.1125

79.2875

100.4125

86.75

33.9625

9.0125 5.28125 3.5125

24.6625

71.26875 61.575 60.25625

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

PTM

P

MESES

promedio 588.1 max 0.0955

desvest 147.726827 0.328 N > 17 =0.05


TIEMPO DE RETORNO PRECIPITACION TOTAL MENSUAL ESTACION PUCARA

DISTRIBUCION NORMAL

TR z f(z) precipitacion (X)

5 0.841621234 0.8 712.423784

10 1.281551566 0.9 777.4132959

15 1.501085946 0.93333333 809.8444132

20 1.644853627 0.95 831.0827565

25 1.750686071 0.96 846.7170476

50 2.053748911 0.98 891.4875592

75 2.216362779 0.98666667 915.5099899

100 2.326347874 0.99 931.757739

DISTRIBUCION GUMBEL PRECIPITACION TOTAL MENSUAL ESTACION PUCAR

x m X P(x)= m/(n+1) y=(xi-u)/ G(y) |G(y)-P(x)|

511.3 1 257.7 0.05882 -2.20817 0.00011 0.05871

580.7 2 428.0 0.11765 -0.38972 0.22842 0.11077

428.0 3 447.5 0.17647 -0.18150 0.30149 0.12502

257.7 4 461.5 0.23529 -0.03201 0.35611 0.12081

737.4 5 511.3 0.29412 0.49975 0.54516 0.25104

728.8 6 521.3 0.35294 0.60653 0.57970 0.22676

699.6 7 543.6 0.41176 0.84465 0.65070 0.23893

461.5 8 580.7 0.47059 1.24080 0.74890 0.27831

447.5 9 612.1 0.52941 1.57609 0.81320 0.28378

612.1 10 655.8 0.58824 2.04271 0.87838 0.29014

543.6 11 684.3 0.64706 2.34703 0.90878 0.26172

838.1 12 699.6 0.70588 2.51041 0.92198 0.21609

655.8 13 701.8 0.76471 2.53390 0.92372 0.15901

521.3 14 728.8 0.82353 2.82220 0.94226 0.11873

684.3 15 737.4 0.88235 2.91403 0.94719 0.06484

701.8 16 838.1 0.94118 3.98930 0.98166 0.04048

518.52727

S 120.06552 0.29014

93.65111 0.328

u 464.49779

comparacin

Los datos se ajustan a una distribucion gumbel

<


DISTRIBUCION GUMBEL


5 604.9688301 0.8

10 675.2471829 0.9

15 714.8976356 0.93333333

20 742.6598661 0.95

25 764.0440679 0.96

50 829.9186698 0.98

75 868.2074999 0.98666667

100 895.306864 0.99

DISTRIBUCION LOG NORMAL DE 2 PARAMETROS PRECIPITACION TOTAL MENSUAL ESTACION PUCAR


1 257.7 -3.211857136 0.0006594 0.058823529 0.05816413

2 428.0 -1.160918878 0.122837445 0.117647059 0.00519039

3 447.5 -0.980805973 0.163344216 0.176470588 0.01312637

4 461.5 -0.856270511 0.195924084 0.235294118 0.03937003

5 511.3 -0.442003709 0.329243261 0.294117647 0.03512561

6 521.3 -0.363701143 0.358040595 0.352941176 0.00509942

7 543.6 -0.194363282 0.422945719 0.411764706 0.01118101

8 580.7 0.072533874 0.528911476 0.470588235 0.05832324

9 612.1 0.28542468 0.612340599 0.529411765 0.08292883

10 655.8 0.564205592 0.713692889 0.588235294 0.12545759

11 684.3 0.736181528 0.769189884 0.647058824 0.12213106

12 699.6 0.82557359 0.795476989 0.705882353 0.08959464

13 701.8 0.838266332 0.79905943 0.764705882 0.03435355

14 728.8 0.990879377 0.839127758 0.823529412 0.01559835

15 737.4 1.038304094 0.850435748 0.882352941 0.03191719

16 838.1 1.555789442 0.940120915 0.941176471 0.00105556

P(X)

S 147.726827

588.1

0.25119605

6.34629205

0.24736341

0.12545759



DISTRIBUCION LOGNORMAL DE 2 PARAMETROS

TR z f(Z) precipitacin (X)

5 0.84162123 0.8 702.3826514

10 1.28155157 0.9 783.1318004

15 1.50108595 0.93333333 826.8355152

20 1.64485363 0.95 856.769264

25 1.75068607 0.96 879.4948597

50 2.05374891 0.98 947.9619616

75 2.21636278 0.98666667 986.8707686

100 2.32634787 0.99 1014.088426

TIEMPOS DE RETORNOS SENGUN LAS

DISTRUBUCIONES

PRECIPITACION TOTAL MENSUAL ESTACION PUCAR

604.9688 675.2472 714.8976 742.6599 764.0441

829.9187 868.2075 895.3069

712.4238 777.4133 809.8444

831.0828 846.7170 891.4876 915.5100

931.7577 702.3827

783.1318 826.8355 856.7693

879.4949 947.9620

986.8708 1,014.0884

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

5 10 15 20 25 50 75 100

PTM

TIEMPO DE RETORNO

GUMBEL

NORMAL

LOGNORMAL

PRECIPITACION MEDIA MENSUAL ESTACION : PUCARA

LAT : 0602'30''

DPTO : CAJAMARCA

LONG : 7908'02''

PROV : JAEN

CATEGORIA: "PLU"


PRECIPITACION PROMEDIO ANUAL ESTACION PUCARA

2.0

1.8 1.9

1.4

1.7

1.5

2.3 2.2

1.5

1.9 1.9

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

1999 2000 2001 2002 2004 2005 2007 2008 2010 2011 2012

PP

A

AOS

Ao Enero Febrero Marzo Abril Mayo Junio Julio Agosto Septiembre Octubre Noviembre Diciembre PPA

1999 2.8 5.1 2.5 1.8 2.6 1.0 0.2 0.0 2.7 1.0 1.3 2.9 2.0

2000 1.6 5.0 2.2 4.2 1.8 1.4 0.1 0.3 2.0 0.1 0.7 2.6 1.8

2001 3.9 2.4 4.5 0.9 2.1 0.1 0.4 0.0 1.6 2.8 2.4 1.8 1.9

2002 2.0 1.4 0.9 2.9 0.8 0.2 0.8 0.0 0.1 3.2 2.4 1.5 1.4

2004 0.8 1.0 0.5 4.6 1.6 0.1 0.4 0.0 1.6 3.1 3.0 3.5 1.7

2005 0.3 3.9 5.5 1.1 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.4 0.6 1.6 0.6 3.2 1.5

2007 2.2 0.9 4.0 3.1 2.0 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.3 5.1 7.8 1.3 2.3

2008 2.2 5.6 3.9 2.5 0.9 1.0 0.2 0.6 0.3 4.5 3.0 1.2 2.2

2010 0.4 4.7 3.7 1.9 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.4 2.0 0.8 2.8 1.5

2011 1.3 2.8 2.3 4.8 1.6 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.7 3.3 1.8 3.7 1.9

2012 3.0 3.4 3.7 3.4 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 3.8 2.9 2.2 1.9

PPM 1.9 3.3 3.1 2.8 1.3 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.9 2.8 2.4 2.4 1.814

PRECIPITACION PROMEDIO MENSUAL ESTACION PUCARA

DISTRIBUCION NORMAL PRECIPITACION MEDIA MENSUAL ESTACION PUCAR

PPA m PPA P(x) Z F(Z) |F(Z)-P(x)|

2.0 1 1.4 0.0833 -1.58 0.0574 0.0259

1.8 2 1.5 0.1667 -1.24 0.1081 0.0586

1.9 3 1.5 0.2500 -1.10 0.1367 0.1133

1.4 4 1.7 0.3333 -0.44 0.3288 0.0045

1.7 5 1.8 0.4167 0.07 0.5267 0.1100

1.5 6 1.9 0.5000 0.21 0.5827 0.0827

2.3 7 1.9 0.5833 0.32 0.6263 0.0430

2.2 8 1.9 0.6667 0.38 0.6476 0.0191

1.5 9 2.0 0.7500 0.61 0.7276 0.0224

1.9 10 2.2 0.8333 1.17 0.8795 0.0461

1.9 11 2.3 0.9167 1.60 0.9449 0.0283

1.9

3.3 3.1

2.8

1.3

0.4 0.2 0.2

0.9

2.8

2.4 2.4

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

PP

M

MESES


desvest 0.2940208 0.391 N > 17 =0.05


TIEMPO DE RETORNO PRECIPITACION MEDIA MENSUAL ESTACION PUCARA

DISTRIBUCION NORMAL

TR z f(z) precipitacion (X)

5 0.841621234 0.8 60.26059291

10 1.281551566 0.9 68.44433914

15 1.501085946 0.93333333 72.52819862

20 1.644853627 0.95 75.20261803

25 1.750686071 0.96 77.17135217

50 2.053748911 0.98 82.80903884

75 2.216362779 0.98666667 85.83404198

100 2.326347874 0.99 87.88002526

DISTRIBUCION GUMBEL PRECIPITACION MEDIA MENSUAL ESTACION PUCAR

m x X P(x)= m/(n+1) y=(xi-u)/ G(y) |G(y)-P(x)|

1 2.0 1.4 0.08333 -1.44472 0.01440 0.06894

2 1.8 1.5 0.16667 -1.00868 0.06444 0.10222

3 1.9 1.5 0.25000 -0.82700 0.10163 0.14837

4 1.4 1.7 0.33333 0.00875 0.37110 0.03776

5 1.7 1.8 0.41667 0.66281 0.59726 0.18059

6 1.5 1.9 0.50000 0.84449 0.65066 0.15066

7 2.3 1.9 0.58333 0.98984 0.68961 0.10627

8 2.2 1.9 0.66667 1.06251 0.70781 0.04114

9 1.5 2.0 0.75000 1.35321 0.77228 0.02228

10 1.9 2.2 0.83333 2.07994 0.88255 0.04922

11 1.9 2.3 0.91667 2.62499 0.93012 0.01345

1.81364

S 0.29402 0.18059

0.22934 0.391

u 1.68133

comparacin

Los datos se ajustan a una distribucion gumbel

<


DISTRIBUCION GUMBEL


5 2.025317578 0.8

10 2.197417752 0.9

15 2.294515216 0.93333333

20 2.362500371 0.95

25 2.414866779 0.96

50 2.576182888 0.98

75 2.669945961 0.98666667

100 2.736307865 0.99

DISTRIBUCION LOG NORMAL DE 2 PARAMETROS PRECIPITACION MEDIA MENSUAL ESTACION PUCAR


1 1.4 -1.752432441 0.039849739 0.083333333 0.04348359

2 1.5 -1.308771066 0.095305955 0.166666667 0.07136071

3 1.5 -1.132877786 0.12863279 0.25 0.12136721

4 1.7 -0.382368356 0.351094079 0.333333333 0.01776075

5 1.8 0.147598297 0.5586701 0.416666667 0.14200343

6 1.9 0.287123664 0.612991183 0.5 0.11299118

7 1.9 0.396529446 0.654142755 0.583333333 0.07080942

8 1.9 0.450517765 0.673831426 0.666666667 0.00716476

9 2.0 0.661895372 0.745980861 0.75 0.00401914

10 2.2 1.160847876 0.877148115 0.833333333 0.04381478

11 2.3 1.510393319 0.934528454 0.916666667 0.01786179

P(X)

S 0.2940208

1.8

0.16211673

0.58236267

0.16106645

0.14200343



DISTRIBUCION LOGNORMAL DE 2 PARAMETROS

TR z f(Z) precipitacin (X)

5 0.84162123 0.8 2.050163644

10 1.28155157 0.9 2.200704715

15 1.50108595 0.93333333 2.27991294

20 1.64485363 0.95 2.333322945

25 1.75068607 0.96 2.373437829

50 2.05374891 0.98 2.49216727

75 2.21636278 0.98666667 2.558303543

100 2.32634787 0.99 2.604027459

TIEMPOS DE RETORNOS SENGUN LAS

DISTRUBUCIONES

PRECIPITACION MEDIA MENSUAL ESTACION PUCAR

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

5 10 15 20 25 50 75 100

PM

M

TIEMPO DE RETORNO

GUMBEL

NORMAL

LOGNORMAL

TEMPERATURA MEDIA MENSUAL ESTACION : LIMON

LAT : 0602'30''

DPTO : CAJAMARCA

LONG : 7908'02''

PROV : JAEN

CATEGORIA: "CO"


TEMPERATURA MAX. ANUAL ESTACION EL LIMON

26.8

27.4

26.8 26.7

27.0 27.1

26.8

27.0

27.6

26.4

26.7

27.3

27.1

25.8

26.0

26.2

26.4

26.6

26.8

27.0

27.2

27.4

27.6

27.8

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2010 2011 2012

Tm

AOS

Ao Enero Febrero Marzo Abril Mayo Junio Julio Agosto Septiembre Octubre Noviembre Diciembre Max

1998 26.3 26.8 25.6 25.4 25.2 24.8 25.7 26.5 26.8 26.6 26.3 26.4 26.8

1999 25.6 24.0 24.6 24.4 24.1 24.9 24.1 25.3 26.1 26.0 27.4 25.5 27.4

2000 25.7 24.7 24.2 24.2 24.5 24.2 24.1 25.2 26.0 26.8 26.6 25.8 26.8

2001 24.3 24.4 24.9 25.0 25.2 24.7 25.1 25.5 25.7 26.7 25.6 26.3 26.7

2002 25.8 24.8 24.8 25.0 25.5 25.3 24.5 26.0 27.0 26.1 25.2 25.4 27.0

2003 25.8 25.3 25.0 25.4 25.2 24.8 24.6 25.9 27.1 26.7 26.7 25.5 27.1

2004 26.8 26.3 26.2 26.7 26.0 24.5 25.0 25.7 26.5 26.0 26.7 26.2 26.8

2005 26.6 25.9 25.1 25.6 26.0 27.0 25.2 26.2 27.0 26.5 26.7 25.8 27.0

2006 25.7 24.4 24.5 25.0 24.9 25.1 25.2 26.2 27.2 27.6 26.7 26.6 27.6

2007 25.4 26.4 25.8 25.5 25.7 25.2 25.1 26.0 26.2 25.9 24.7 25.7 26.4

2010 26.0 25.9 26.3 26.5 26.4 26.0 26.3 25.7 26.6 26.7 26.1 25.5 26.7

2011 25.4 24.6 25.3 24.8 25.5 25.6 25.2 26.4 26.3 26.3 27.3 25.5 27.3

2012 24.9 24.3 25.6 25.8 26.1 26.0 26.4 27.0 27.1 26.4 26.8 26.4 27.1

Max 26.8 26.8 26.3 26.7 26.4 27.0 26.4 27.0 27.2 27.6 27.4 26.6 350.7

TEMPERATURA MAX. MENSUAL ESTACION EL LIMON

26.8 26.8

26.3

26.7

26.4

27.0

26.4

27.0

27.2

27.6

27.4

26.6

25.5

26.0

26.5

27.0

27.5

28.0T

mx

MEN

SUA

L

MESES

EXTRA

PRECIPITACION MAXIMA EN 24 HORAS

ESTACION: CHACHAPOYAS LAT : 061230 DPTO : AMAZONAS

LONG : 77521,8 PROV : CHACHAPOYAS

CATEGORIA: CO ALT. : 2490 m.s.n.m DIST : CHACHAPOYAS

m Pmax 24 h Pmax 24 h P(x) Z F(Z) |F(Z)-P(x)|

1 90.3 21 0.0526 -1.27 0.1022 0.0496

2 58.2 26.9 0.1053 -0.95 0.1706 0.0654

3 74.2 28.4 0.1579 -0.87 0.1919 0.0340

4 42.4 29.88 0.2105 -0.79 0.2143 0.0038

5 31.5 29.9 0.2632 -0.79 0.2146 0.0485

6 28.4 31.5 0.3158 -0.70 0.2406 0.0752

7 52.8 31.5 0.3684 -0.70 0.2406 0.1278

8 33.3 33.3 0.4211 -0.61 0.2717 0.1494

9 26.9 35.1 0.4737 -0.51 0.3047 0.1690

10 31.5 42.4 0.5263 -0.12 0.4528 0.0735

11 29.9 49.5 0.5789 0.26 0.6038 0.0248

12 49.5 49.5 0.6316 0.26 0.6038 0.0278

13 29.88 52.8 0.6842 0.44 0.6702 0.0140

14 49.5 53.9 0.7368 0.50 0.6914 0.0455

15 53.9 58.2 0.7895 0.73 0.7676 0.0219

16 35.1 64.6 0.8421 1.07 0.8588 0.0167

17 21 74.2 0.8947 1.59 0.9442 0.0495

18 64.6 90.3 0.9474 2.46 0.9930 0.0456

Ao Enero Febrero Marzo Abril Mayo Junio Julio Agosto Setiembre Octubre Noviembre Diciembre Max

1995 39.10 10.80 38.70 90.30 17.60 22.50 5.70 3.00 17.10 55.50 29.60 86.60 90.30

1996 36.10 29.10 41.50 29.70 9.80 39.50 8.60 13.60 22.20 58.20 35.00 34.60 58.20

1997 36.00 74.20 45.50 46.70 22.10 13.60 4.50 23.60 27.50 7.00 23.50 46.70 74.20

1998 21.90 18.00 30.60 34.40 12.80 2.50 0.50 12.30 9.80 15.60 42.40 4.20 42.40

1999 28.20 31.50 14.00 5.70 15.40 22.00 6.30 15.40 15.50 12.80 11.30 17.50 31.50

2000 13.40 22.10 20.40 13.60 28.40 17.60 2.00 6.40 20.00 2.00 8.20 17.30 28.40

2001 8.20 30.80 17.70 12.50 16.96 2.70 8.50 2.90 11.00 52.80 13.70 10.90 52.80

2002 20.40 26.50 21.90 29.60 18.80 10.80 8.30 4.20 12.50 33.30 14.10 24.80 33.30

2003 26.00 22.50 23.10 16.20 22.70 4.50 2.00 16.90 13.00 19.90 20.50 26.90 26.90

2004 14.10 22.40 31.50 18.30 8.60 16.00 11.40 7.00 13.80 17.30 19.30 18.40 31.50

2005 6.50 23.60 19.80 17.80 29.30 1.80 2.00 12.20 16.00 29.90 18.10 20.20 29.90

2006 24.60 20.20 36.20 18.30 5.00 4.60 13.80 2.00 8.40 49.50 21.30 14.30 49.50

2007 21.90 9.50 29.30 13.50 15.80 1.60 21.40 27.90 9.50 29.88 20.80 28.20 29.88

2008 11.30 28.50 10.10 8.00 15.10 13.00 3.50 8.30 23.00 49.50 24.16 33.88 49.50

2009 18.30 53.90 23.50 48.30 5.60 2.00 8.60 7.40 3.80 36.30 14.00 5.80 53.90

2010 35.10 29.70 21.50 32.10 10.30 14.30 24.80 1.20 8.60 7.70 12.50 14.00 35.10

2011 14.60 17.80 15.40 18.20 13.80 9.70 8.40* 5.70 11.50 19.60 9.80 21.00 21.00

2012 26.30 64.60 21.40 20.40 21.80 37.70 1.60 7.00 11.90 48.10 20.40 10.90 64.60


desvest 18.6023687 0.309 N > 17 =0.05


HIDROLOGIA-DISTRIBUCIONES

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