informe petrolero de vzla 2011 en espanol

7/30/2019 informe petrolero de vzla 2011 en espanol

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VENEZUELA ADELANTE DEL INFORME DE LA INVESTIGACIN:OPORTUNIDADES PARA EL DBIL NO DEL INVERSIONISTA DE CORAZN

RESEARCHREPORTFORWARD

VENEZUELA:OPPORTUNITIES

FOR THE NONFAINT OF HEARTINVESTOR


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Venezuelas energy situation continues to attract the attention of investors worldwide. The country isblessed with an abundance of natural resources of which crude oil and natural gas are of utmost interestto companies and countries with large energy demands.At the end of 2011, Venezuelas oil reserves amounted to 297,571 million barrels or MMbbls (of which258,939 MMbbls were classified as heavy and extra-heavy oil and located in Venezuelas Orinoco HeavyOil Belt, also known as the Faja), while its oil production amounted to 2,991 thousand barrels per day(Mb/d) which resulted in a reserves-to-production or R/P ratio in excess of 100 years (See Table 1).Venezuela reigns as the largest holder worldwide of oil reserves with control of 17.9% of said resources.

The country has even surpassed Saudi Arabia with its 265,400 MMbbls of oil reserves, which represent16.1% of said oil reserves worldwide. However, Venezuelas oil production still lags behind that of SaudiArabia, which amounted to 11,161 Mb/d at the end of 2011 (R/P ratio of 65.2 years), and other countriessuch as Canada, China, Iran, Russia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), and the United States of America(USA).At the end of 2011, Venezuelas gas reserves amounted to 195.0 trillion cubic feet (Tcf), while its gasproduction amounted to 7,125 million cubic feet per day (MMcf/d) gross (4,241 MMcf/d, net afterreinjections) which resulted in a R/P ratio in excess of 100 years (See Table 2).

As such, Venezuela is the eighth largest holder worldwide of gas reserves withcontrol of just 2.7% of said resources. TABLE 1: WORLDWIDE OIL RESERVESAT THE END OF 2011 (TOP 10 COUNTRIES)Country Rank Reserves

(MMbbls)Share ofTotal (%)

Production(Mb/d)

R/P Ratio(In Years)

Venezuela (1) 1 297,571 17.9% 2,991 100 +Saudi Arabia 2 265,400 16.1% 11,161 65.2Canada 3 175,200 10.6% 3,522 100 +Iran 4 151,200 9.1% 4,321 95.8Iraq 5 143,100 8.7% 2,798 100 +Kuwait 6 101,500 6.1% 2,865 97.0United ArabEmirates

7 97,800 5.9% 3,322 80.7

RussiaFederation

8 88,200 5.3% 10,280 23.5

Libya 9 47,100 2.9% 479 100 +Nigeria 10 37,200 2.3% 2,457 41.5Note: (1) Reserve and production data provided by PDVSA - Source: BPs Statistical Reviewof Energy

TABLE 2: WORLDWIDE GAS RESERVES AT THE END OF 2011 (TOP 10COUNTRIES)Country Rank Reserves

(Tcf)Share ofTotal (%)

Production(MMcf/d)

R/P Ratio(In Years)

RussianFederation

1 1,575.0 21.4% 58,730 73.5

Iran 2 1,168.6 15.9% 14,687 100 +Qatar 3 884.5 12.0% 14,208 100 +Turkmenistan 4 858.8 11.7% 5,761 100 +USA 5 299.8 4.1% 63,014 13.0Saudi Arabia 6 287.8 3.9% 9,601 82.1United ArabEmirates

7 215.1 2.9% 5,005 100 +

Venezuela (1) 8 195.0 2.7% 7,125 100 +Nigeria 9 180.5 2.5% 3,856 100 +Algeria 10 159.1 2.2% 7,546 57.7Note: (1) Reserve and production data provided by PDVSA - Source: BPs Statistical Review ofEnergy


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However, Venezuelas gas production, according to BP at the end of 2011, ranks twenty-

sixth worldwide and lags behind that of the following countries: Algeria, Argentina,Australia, Canada, China, Egypt, India, Indonesia, Iran, Malaysia, Mexico, Netherlands,Nigeria, Norway, Pakistan, Qatar, Russian Federation, Saudi Arabia, Thailand, Trinidad &Tobago, Turkmenistan, United Arab Emirates, United Kingdom (UK), USA, and Uzbekistan.In a move to increase its proven oil and gas reserves and production capacity, Venezuelasstate oil company Petrleos de Venezuela (PDVSA) has announced a seven-year capitalbudget plan for 2012-2018 (See Tables 6-1 and 6-2) that calls for investments of $266,059million (an average of $38,008 million per year) with the lions share being destined for thefollowing activities: production ($127,941 million), new refineries and upgraders ($59,490million), onshore gas developments ($25,425 million), existing refineries ($18,999 million)and exploration ($5,970 million). Given the magnitude of PDVSAs capital budget, thecompany is counting heavily on third party investments from international oil companies(IOCs) as well as national oil companies (NOCs).In short, Venezuela holds wide spread potential for investors searching for activities in theupstream, downstream, and midstream sectors, among others indirectly related to thepetroleum sector. Nevertheless, Venezuelas petroleum sector has been undergoing acrossthe board changes and expropriations since 2005. These changes have forced a number ofcompanies to exit the country do to disagreement with the governments SowingPetroleum Plan and policies, which continuously point the blame at IOCs for a number ofissues currently affecting Venezuelas petroleum sector and the country in general.While Energy Analytics Institute is not in complete agreement with the currentgovernments petroleum sector policies, or entirely confident in its means to increase itsproven oil and gas reserves and production, we cannot overlook the enormousopportunities that are found in Venezuela. This Investor Research Report takes a look atthese opportunities within the framework of PDVSAs seven-year capital budget plan. Italso examines the evolution of PDVSAs Balance Sheets and Income Statements over thelast six years.

FOR MORE DETAILS, DOWNLOAD THE FULL 59-PAGE RESEARCH REPORTVENEZUELA: OPPORTUNITIES FOR THE NON FAINT OF HEART INVESTORONLINE.

DISCLAIMER / DISCLOSURESThe Energy Analytics Institute (EAI) is an independent research company and is not aregistered investment advisor. Information contained in this report is based on sourcesconsidered to be reliable but is not represented to be complete and its accuracy is notguaranteed. Opinions expressed reflect judgment of the author as of the date ofpublication and are subject to change without notice.This document and its contents do not constitute an offer, invitation or solicitation topurchase or subscribe to any securities or other instruments, or to undertake or divestinvestments. Neither shall this document or its contents form basis of any contract,commitment or decision of any kind. This material has no regard to specific investmentobjectives, financial situation or particular needs of any recipient. It is published solely forinformational purposes and is not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sellany securities or related financial instruments.Energy Analytics Institute (EAI) accepts no liability of any type for any direct or indirect

losses arising from use of this document or its contents. All information is correct at timeof publication; additional information may be made available upon request.


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Energy Analytics Institute (EAI) and its officers, directors, shareholders and employees,and members of their families may have positions in securities mentioned in this reportand may as principal or agent, buy and sell such securities before, after or concurrentlywith publication of this report.

EXECUTIVE TEAMEditor:Chad ArcheyCopy Editor:Layla Benitez-JamesEditorial Council:James LamEarl Francisco LopezOfelia ParedesVinod SreeharshaHarold StewartCommentaries / Analysis:Ian SilvermanAaron Simonsky

Jeremy MorganJared YaminDistribution:Fidencio CasillasProofreading:Rufus TrotmanCarlene WilliamsPhotography / Layout:FOTObicionDirector General:P. Don Pitts

FEES FOR INVESTOR RESEARCH REPORTSFee-Based Individual Research Reports

The fee for each Latin America and Caribbean Region research report is US$395/person.Ad Hoc Research Reports

The fees for special ad hoc research reports can be obtained by contacting usdirectly at the following mailing address:In the USA (Corporate Headquarters):

Energy Analytics Institute15227 Oak Terrace DriveHouston, Texas 77082


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T. 1.832.387.0183W. www.energy-analytics-institute.orgE. [email protected] @EnergyAnalyInstIn Venezuela (Representative Office):Energy Analytics Institute (formerly Editores Latin Petroleum, C.A.)

Avenida Francisco de MirandaEdificio Galerias Venezias, Local 3

Situacin energtica de Venezuela sigue atrayendo la atencin de los inversores en todo el mundo.El pas cuenta con una abundancia de recursos naturales de que petrleo crudo y gas natural son desumo inters para las empresas y pases con las demandas de energa grande.A finales de 2011, petroleo de Venezuela las reservas ascendieron a 297,571 millones de barriles oMMbbls (que 258.939 MMbbls fueron clasificados como petrleo pesado y extrapesado y ubicadosen el cinturn petrolfero del Orinoco de Venezuela, tambin conocida como la Faja), mientras que

su produccin de petrleo ascendieron a 2.991 mil barriles diarios (Mb/d) que result en unaproduccin de reservas o relacin R/P ms de 100 aos (ver tabla 1).Reinados de Venezuela como titular ms grande en el mundo del petroleo se reserva con control de17,9% de dichos recursos. El pas ha superado incluso Arabia Saudita con sus 265.400 MMbbls dereservas de petrleo, que representan el 16.1% de dichas reservas en todo el mundo. Sin embargo, la

produccin de petrleo de Venezuela todava est muy por detrs de Arabia Saudita, que ascendi a11.161 Mb/d a finales de 2011 (relacin de R/P de 65.2 aos), y otros pases como Canad, China,Irn, Rusia, Emiratos rabes Unidos (EAU) y los Estados Unidos de Amrica (Estados Unidos).A finales de 2011, gas de Venezuela las reservas ascendieron a 195 trillones de pies cbicos (Tcf),mientras que su produccin de gas ascendi a 7125 millones pies cbicos por da (MMcf//d) bruto(4.241 MMcf/d, neto despus de reinyecciones) que dio lugar a una relacin R/P en exceso de 100aos (ver tabla 2).


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Sin embargo, la produccin de gas de Venezuela, segn BP a finales de 2011, ocupa el vigsimosexto en todo el mundo y va a la zaga de los pases siguientes: Argelia, Argentina, Australia,Canad, China, Egipto, India, Indonesia, Irn, Malasia, Mxico, Pases Bajos, Nigeria, Noruega,Pakistn, Qatar, Federacin de Rusia, Arabia Saudita, Tailandia, Trinidad y Tabago, Turkmenistn,Emiratos rabes Unidos, Reino Unido (UK), Estados Unidos y Uzbekistn.En un intento por aumentar su comprobadas de petrleo y reservas de gas y capacidad de

produccin petrolera de Venezuela estatal Petrleos de Venezuela (PDVSA) ha anunciado un plande presupuesto de capital de siete aos para 2012-2018 (ver tablas 6-1 y 6-2) que requiereinversiones de $266059 millones (un promedio de $38008 millones por ao) con el Len compartirsiendo destinado para las siguientes actividades: produccin ($127941 millones), nuevas refinerasy mejoradores ($59490 millones), en tierra de gas desarrollos ($25425 millones), refineras ($18999millones) y exploracin ($5970 millones). Dada la magnitud del presupuesto de capital de PDVSA,la empresa est contando fuertemente en las inversiones de la tercera parte de las compaas

petroleras internacionales (IOCs) as como de las compaas petroleras nacionales (CONS).En definitiva, Venezuela tiene amplia difusin potencial para inversionistas buscando actividadesen aguas arriba, aguas abajo y sectores de centro de la corriente, entre otros relacionadosindirectamente con el sector del petrleo. Sin embargo, ha sido objeto de sector petrolero de

Venezuela a travs de los cambios de junta y expropiaciones desde 2005. Estos cambios obligan aun nmero de empresas para salir hacer el pas en desacuerdo con el Plan del Gobierno siembra

petrleo y polticas, que continuamente la culpa a IOCs para una serie de problemas que afectanactualmente al sector del petrleo de Venezuela y el pas en general.Mientras que el Instituto de anlisis de energa no est completamente de acuerdo con las polticasdel sector de petrleo del Gobierno actual, o totalmente confiados en sus posibilidades paraaumentar su produccin y reservas de gas y comprobadas de petrleo, no podemos olvidar lasenormes oportunidades que se encuentran en Venezuela. Este informe de investigacin deinversionista echa un vistazo a estas oportunidades en el marco del plan de presupuesto de capitalde siete aos de PDVSA. Tambin examina la evolucin de los balances y Estados de ingresos dePDVSA en los ltimos seis aos.

PARA MS DETALLES, DESCARGAR LA INVESTIGACIN COMPLETA 59-PGINAINFORME SOBRE VENEZUELA: OPORTUNIDADES PARA EL NO DBIL DE CORAZNINVERSIONISTA EN LNEA.

RESPONSABILIDAD / DIVULGACINEl Instituto de anlisis de energa (EAI) es una empresa de investigacin independiente y no es unasesor de inversiones registrado. Informacin contenida en este informe se basa en fuentesconsideradas fiables, pero no est representada a ser completa y no se garantiza su exactitud.Opiniones reflejan el juicio del autor a partir de la fecha de publicacin y estn sujetos a cambiossin previo aviso.Este documento y su contenido no constituye una oferta, invitacin o solicitud para comprar osuscribirse a cualquier ttulos u otros instrumentos, o para emprender o desprenderse de inversiones.Tampoco constituirn este documento o su contenido base de contrato, compromiso o decisin decualquier tipo. Este material no tiene tener en cuenta los objetivos especficos de inversin,situacin financiera o necesidades particulares de cualquier destinatario. Se publica nicamente confines informativos y no debe ser interpretado como una solicitud o una oferta de compra o venta devalores o instrumentos financieros relacionados.Instituto de anlisis de energa (EAI) no acepta ninguna responsabilidad de cualquier tipo por

cualquier directa o prdidas indirectas derivadas del usan de este documento o su contenido. Toda lainformacin es correcta en el momento de su publicacin; Informacin adicional puede hacersedisponible a peticin.


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Instituto de anlisis de energa (EAI) y sus oficiales, directores, accionistas y empleados y susfamiliares pueden tener posiciones en valores mencionados en este informe y como principal oagente, comprar y vender dichos valores antes, despus o simultneamente con la publicacin deeste informe.

EQUIPO EJECUTIVOEditor:Chad Archey

Copy Editor:Layla Benitez-James

Consejo Editorial:James LamConde Francisco LopezOfelia ParedesVinod SreeharshaHarold Stewart

Comentarios / anlisis:Ian SilvermanAaron SimonskyJeremy MorganJared Yamin

Distribucin:Fidencio Casillas

Correccin:Rufus TrotmanCarlene Williams

Fotografa / Diseo:

FOTObicionDirector General:

P. Don Pitts

HONORARIOS POR INFORMES DE INVESTIGACIN DEL INVERSORInformes de investigacin individual basado en honorariosEl costo de cada informe de investigacin de Amrica Latina y el Caribe es de US $395 por

persona.Informes de investigacin Ad Hoc.Los honorarios para los informes especiales de investigacin ad hoc pueden obtenerse contactandocon nosotros directamente en la siguiente direccin:En los Estados Unidos (sede):

In the USA (Corporate Headquarters):

Energy Analytics InstituteUnidad de terraza roble 15227Houston, Texas 77082T. 1.832.387. 0183W. www.energy-analytics-institute.org

[email protected] E.Siga @EnergyAnalyInst

In Venezuela (Representative Office):


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Energy Analytics Institute (formerly Editores Latin Petroleum, C.A.)Avenida Francisco de MirandaEdificio Galerias Venezias, Local 3Municipio ChacaoCaracas, VenezuelaT. 58.416.403.8945

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