josef larseni saqarTvelos politikis institu-

tis analitikosTa gunds 2016 wels SeuerTda. am-

Jamad misi kvlevis sferoa usafrTxoebisa da re-

gionuli integraciis sakiTxebi, maT Soris, CineTis

`sartyelisa da gzis~ iniciativa, natoSi integra-

cia da saqarTvelos demokratiuli ganviTareba.

josefi centraluri evropis universitetis saer-

TaSoriso urTierTobis mimarTulebis kursdam-

Tavrebulia. saqarTvelos politikis institutSi

muSaobis dawyebamde, is iyo kavkasiis kvleviTi

resursebis centris mkvlevari da Jurnalisti.

larsen@gip.ge

CanawerebisTvis

abstraqti

CineTi saqarTvelos mimarT mzard interess iCens. TanamSromloba ZiriTadad

ekonomikur sferoSi urTierTobebiT Semoifargleba. Tumca, „sartyelisa da gzis“

iniciativis konteqstSi regionSi CineTis CarTulobas SesaZloa geopolitikuri

mniSvneloba hqondes.

politikis dokumenti

oqtomberi 2017

Tbilisi

josef larseni

saqarTvelo-CineTis urTierTobebi: „sartyelisa da gzis“ geopolitika

saqarTvelos politikis instituti (GIP) aris arakomerciuli, arapartiuli, kv-

leviTi da analitikuri organizacia, romelic 2011 wlis dasawyisSi daarsda. GIP

cdilobs saqarTveloSi demokratiuli institutebis organizaciuli safuZvlebis

gaZlierebas da efeqturi mmarTvelobis principebis ganviTarebas politikuri kv-

levisa da advokatirebis gziT. organizacia aseve xels uwyobs samoqalaqo sazo-

gadoebis mSeneblobisa da demokratiuli procesebis ganviTarebaSi saxalxo Car-

Tulobas. 2013 wlis dekembridan saqarTvelos politikis instituti aris euTos

akademiuri institutebisa da analitikuri organizaciebis qselis wevri.

redaqtori: korneli kakaCia

avtori: josef larseni

ydis foto: The Silk Road Project

gamomcemloba: grifoni

© Georgian Institute of Politics, 2017Tel: +995 599 99 02 12Email: info@gip.gewww.gip.ge

3

Sinaarsi

mokle Sinaarsi.................................................................................................................4

saqarTvelo: CineTis partniori samxreT kavkasiaSi....................................................6

saqarTvelo-CineTis kavSirebi ekonomikis sferoSi............................................6

saqarTvelo-CineTis urTierTobebi diplomatiisa da

usafrTxoebis sferoSi.........................................................................................11

„sartyelisa da gzis“ iniciativa..................................................................................13

saqarTvelos adgili „sartyelisa da gzis iniciativaSi~.................................16

geopolitikuri Sedegebi...............................................................................................19

CineTisa da ruseTis urTierTobebi „sartyelisa da gzis“

iniciativis konteqstSi.........................................................................................20

geopolitikuri Sedegebi saqarTvelosTvis.......................................................23

savaraudo warumateblobebi.........................................................................................25

daskvna.............................................................................................................................27

rekomendaciebi...............................................................................................................28

4

mokle Sinaarsi

saqarTvelo CineTTan urTierTobebs TandaTan aRrmavebs, gansakuTrebiT, ekono-

mikis sferoSi. garda imisa, rom CineTi mniSnvelovani savaWro partniori da pirda-

piri ucxouri investiciebis wyaroa, ori qveyana rig diplomatiur sakiTxebTan

dakavSirebiT saerTo pozicias iziarebs. mcire zomisa da CineTTan geografiuli

siSoris gaTvaliswinebiT, naklebsavaraudoa saqarTvelo CineTisTvis strategi-

uli an usafrTxoebis prioriteti gaxdes. amis miuxedavad, Zlier saxelmwifos-

Tan ormxriv urTierTobebSi saqarTvelos garkveuli upiratesobebis gamoyeneba

SeuZlia - ufro konkretulad ki saqme exeba saqarTvelos unikalur mdebareobas

evropisa da aziis damakavSirebel gzaze. „sartyelisa da gzis“ iniciativaSi saqa-

rTvelos monawileobas qveynis sami mTavari maxasiaTebeli xdis mimzidvels:

• Tavisufali vaWrobis xelSekruleba evrokavSirTan da CineTTan;

• Sav zRvaze gasasvleli da saxmeleTo gza TurqeTTan, rac CineTs evrokav-

SirTan vaWrobis ufro efeqtur platformas sTavazobs (meore faqtori met

mniSvnelobas sZens pirvel faqtors);

• xelsayreli mdebareoba or regionul formats Soris, romelic mniSvnelova-

nia „sartyelisa da gzis“ iniciativis warmatebiT ganxorcielebisTvis. esenia

_ saqarTvelos, ukrainis, azerbaijanisa da moldovas (GUAM) gaerTianeba da

azerbaijani-saqarTvelo-TurqeTis sammxrivi TanamSromlobis formati.

aRsaniSnavia isic, rom saqarTvelos teritoriis simciris gaTvaliswinebiT, Cine-

Tis mxridan mciredi Zalisxmevac saqarTvelosTvis mniSvnelovani Sedegebis mom-

tani iqneba.

saqarTvelosTvis „sartyelisa da gzis“ iniciativaSi monawileoba strategiulad

mniSvnelovania. maSin rodesac GUAM-isa da saqarTvelo-azerbaijani-TurqeTis

sammxrivi TanamSromlobis formati arasakmarisad institucionalizebulia da

arcerTs gaaCnia CineTisTvis strategiuli mniSvneloba, regionSi CineTis CarTu-

loba damatebiT stimuls qmnis regionuli ekonomikuri TanamSromlobis gaRr-

mavebisTvis. es ki met mniSvnelobas SesZens saqarTvelos rols evropisa da aziis

damakavSirebel gzaze, risi niSnebic ukve TvalsaCinoa. amasTan, regionSi CineTis

CarTulobas SeuZlia gazardos ruseTis mxridan mezobeli qveynebis, maT Soris

saqarTvelos destabilizaciis fasi da Sesabamisad, Secvalos ruseTis strate-

giuli gaTvlebi. ruseTze amgvari zemoqmedeba Seamcirebs geopolitikur wnexs

saqarTveloze da mas usafrTxoebis uzrunvelyofaSi daexmareba.

winamdebare dokumentis pirvel nawilSi ganxilulia saqarTvelo-CineTis ormxrivi

urTierTobebi. dokumentis meore nawilSi warmodgenilia informacia „sartyelisa

da gzis“ iniciativis Sesaxeb da akademiur literaturaze, ori qveynis mTavrobis

5

oficialur gancxadebebsa da dokumentebze dayrdnobiT, gaanalizebulia saqarT-

velos roli am inciativaSi. mesame nawilSi Sefasebulia „sartyelisa da gzis“ in-

ciativis geopolitikuri mniSvneloba da ganxilulia CineTis CarTulobis Sedegad

saqarTvelos strategiuli poziciis gaZlierebis SesaZlebloba. meoTxe nawilSi

ganxilulia „sartyelisa da gzis“ inciativis warumateblobis SesaZlebloba. do-

kumentSi daskvnis saxiT saqarTvelos mTavrobisTvis warmodgenilia rekomenda-

ciebi „sartyelisa da gzis“ inciativis farglebSi CineTTan urTierTobisas maqsi-

maluri sargeblis misaRebad.

6

saqarTvelo: CineTis partniori samxreT kavkasiaSi

CineTis saxalxo respublikam saqarTvelosTan oficialuri diplomatiuri urT-

ierTobebi 1992 wlis 9 ivniss daiwyo. 25 wlis manZilze ormxrivi kavSirebi Tan-

daTan gaRrmavda. TanamSromloba ekonomikur sferoSi urTierTobebiT Semoifar-

gleba da ZiriTadi aqcenti investiciebsa da vaWrobaze keTdeba. ormxrivi vaWroba

mniSvnelovnad gaizarda 1992 wels savaWro urTierTobebis Camoyalibebis da gan-

sakuTrebiT 2010 wlis Semdeg, rodesac saqarTveloSi 2008 wlis omis Semdgomi

ekonomikuri aRmavloba daiwyo.

saqarTvelo-CineTis kavSirebi ekonomikis sferoSi

saqarTvelosa da CineTs Soris savaWro urTierTobebi sagrZnoblad gaRrmavda mas

Semdeg, rac saqarTvelos ekonomikam 2008 wlis agvistos omis Semdgomi ekonomikuri

aRmavloba daiwyo. saqarTvelos eqsporti CineTSi 2009 wels 6 mln. aSS dolaridan

2010 wels 170 mln. aSS dolaramde gaizarda, rac saqarTvelos mTliani eqsportis

8%-s Seadgenda1. imave periodSi, saqarTveloSi CineTidan eqsporti 175 mln. aSS

dolaridan 548 mln. aSS dolaramde gaizarda, ramac CineTi TurqeTisa da ruseTis

Semdeg saqarTveloSi eqsportis kuTxiT rigiT mesame adgilze daayena. ormxrivi

vaWrobis mTliani moculoba 1992 wlidan 2014 wlamde 223-jer _ 4 mln. aSS dolar-

idan 823 mln. aSS dolaramde gaizarda. CineTSi saqarTvelos eqsportis didi wili

amJamad mineralebze, maT Soris spilenZis madansa da koncentrantebze modis2.

1 “Georgian exports by countries”, GeoStat, wvdomis TariRi 14 ivnisi, 2017, http://geostat.ge/index.php?action=page&p_id=134&lang=eng. 2 “Product Exports by Georgia to China 2015”, wits.worldbank.org, wvdomis TariRi 6 seqtemberi, 2017,

http://wits.worldbank.org/CountryProfi le/en/Country/GEO/Year/2015/TradeFlow/Export/Partner/CHN/Product/All-Groups.

7

saqarTvelos wliuri eqsporti CineTSi

wyaro: GeoStat3

CineTis yovelwliuri eqsporti saqarTveloSi

wyaro: GeoStat4

3 iqve.4 “Georgian Imports by Countries”, GeoStat, wvdomis TariRi 14 ivnisi, 2017, http://geostat.ge/index.php?action=page&p_id=134&lang=eng.

8

5 “China, Georgia sign FTA”, The State Council of the People Republic of China, bolo cvlileba 15 maisi, 2017,

wvdomis TariRi 17 agvisto, 2017, http://english.gov.cn/news/international_exchanges/2017/05/15/content_281475656216746.htm. 6 “Joint Feasibility Study on China-Georgia Possible Free Trade Agreement”, PMC Research Center, 30 ivlisi,

2015, wvdomis TariRi 30 ivnisi, 2017, gv. 121. 7 iqve, gv. 122.

or qveyanas Soris arsebul savaWro urTierTobebs kidev ufro metad ganamt-

kicebs 2017 wlis maisSi xelmowerili xelSekruleba Tavisufali vaWrobis Sesax-

eb. xelSekrulebis mixedviT, saqarTvelo tarifebs gaauqmebs CineTis saeqspor-

to kategoriis 95.6%-ze, maSin rodesac saqarTvelos saeqsporto kategoriis

91%-s moexsneba tarifi xelSekrulebis ZalaSi SesvlisTanave5. amasTan, saqarT-

velos saeqsporto kategoriis damatebiT 3% gaTavisufldeba tarifebisgan xe-

lSekrulebis ZalaSi Sesvlidan xuTi wlis ganmavlobaSi. Tavisufali vaWrobis

Sesaxeb xelSekruleba saqarTvelosTvis savaraudod momgebiani iqneba. imis gaT-

valiswinebiT, rom saqarTveloSi CineTidan ganxorcielebul importze TiTqmis nu-

lovani tarifi aqamdec moqmedebda, Tavisufali vaWrobis Sesaxeb xelSekrulebiT

gaTvaliswinebuli pirobebiT qarTveli eqsportiorebi araproporciulad did

sargebels miiReben. 2015 wels TbilisSi dafuZnebuli politikisa da marTvis sa-

konsultacio jgufis (PMCG) mier saqarTvelosa da CineTs Soris Tavisufali

savaWro SeTanxmebis xelSekrulebis gaformebis mizanSewonilobis Sesaxeb Catare-

bulma kvlevam aCvena, rom Cinur produqciaze tarifebis sruli gauqmebiT saqa-

rTveloSi CineTidan eqsporti yovelwliurad 1.6%-2.2%-iT gaizrdeba6. CineTis

mier qarTul produqciaze tarifebis sruli gauqmebiT ki saqarTvelodan CineTSi

eqsporti 9%-iT gaizrdeba7. savaWro liberalizacia qarTveli eqportiorebisTvis

met SesaZleblobas gaaCens, qveynis samomxmareblo bazris iafi importirebuli

saqonliT gadavsebis riskis gareSe. Cineli eqsportiorebi marginalur sargebels

naxaven, maSin rodesac qarTvel eqsportiorebs mniSvnelovnad gaezrdebaT CineTis

samomxmareblo bazarTan wvdoma, gansakuTrebiT Rvinisa da araalkoholuri sas-

9

melebis mimarTulebiT8.

CineTi saqarTvelosTvis pirdapiri ucxouri investiciis wyaroc gaxda. 2014 wels

CineTidan Semosulma pirdapirma ucxourma investiciam 218 mln. aSS dolari Sead-

gina, riTic CineTma rigiT meoTxe adgili daikava azerbaijanis, niderlandebis

samefosa da amerikis SeerTebuli Statebis Semdeg9. umsxvilesi ucxouri investori

saqarTveloSi hualing jgufia _ Cinuri kompania, romelmac 2007 wlidan moyole-

buli 8 proeqtiT saqarTveloSi 500 mln. aSS dolaris investicia ganaxorciela10.

kompaniis proeqtebis CamonaTvalSia Tavisufali industriuli zona quTaisSi,

sacxovrebeli da komerciuli kompleqsi Tbilisis gareT da xis gadamamuSavebeli

qarxana11. qveynis masStabiT hualing jgufSi dasaqmebulia 3000-ze meti adamiani.

CineTis pirdapiri ucxouri investicia saqarTveloSi

wyaro: GeoStat12

Cinurma kompaniebma fexi moikides saqarTvelos momsaxurebis seqtorSic, gansa-

kuTrebiT safinanso, telekomunikaciebisa da turizmis sferoebSi. telekomunika-

ciebis mimarTulebiT, ori Cinuri kompania gaxda bazris mniSnvelovani moTamaSe _

ZTE Corporation da HUAWEI Technology Co., Ltd _ romlebic mobiluri telefonis

servisebis miwodebaSi specializdeba. safinanso sferoSi, hualing jgufma 2012

wels saqarTvelos bazis bankis sakontrolo paketi Seisyida13. 2016 wels bazis

8 iqve. 9 “Foreign Direct Investments by Countries”, GeoStat, wvdomis TariRi 18 ivnisi, 2017, http://geostat.ge/index.php?action=page&p_id=2231&lang=eng. 10 “Hualing Group – Top Investor of Georgia”, hualing.ge, wvdomis TariRi 6 seqtemberi, 2017, http://hualing.ge/language/en/hualing-group-top-investor-of-georgia/. 11 “Projects”, Hualing.ge, wvdomis TariRi 10 ivnisi, 2017, http://hualing.ge/language/en/tbilisi-sea-new-city-2/.12 “Foreign Direct Investments by Countries”, GeoStat, wvdomis TariRi 14 ivnisi, 2016, http://geostat.ge/index.php?action=page&p_id=2231&lang=eng. 13 “Hualing Group enters into preliminary agreement to acquire majority stake of Bank Republic, a subsidiary of Societe Generale in Georgia”, Hualing.ge, wvdomis TariRi 7 agvisto, 2017, http://hualing.ge/language/en/hualing-group-enters-into-preliminary-agreement-to-acquire-majority-stake-of-bank-republic-a-subsidi-ary-of-societe-generale-in-georgia/.

10

bankma 5 mln. aSS dolaris moculobis sakredito xazi miiRo saxelmwifo sakuTre-

baSi myofi CineTis ganviTarebis bankisgan, rac ucxour investiciebsa da vaWrobaSi

CineTis saxelmwifos Carevis magaliTs warmoadgens.

Tumca aRsaniSnavia, rom pirdapiri ucxouri investiciis Semodineba 2014 wlis

Semdeg Semcirda. vardna ganapiroba hualingis, rogorc pirdapiri ucxouri in-

vesticiis erTaderTi wamyvani kompaniis arsebobam14. kompaniam investiciebis um-

ravlesoba 2007-2015 wlebSi ganaxorciela. Sesabamisad, saWiroa axali msxvili in-

vestorebis Semosvla. saqarTveloSi CineTis saelCos mrCevelma ekonomikur da

vaWrobis sakiTxebSi _ liu bom 2016 wlis interviuSi optimizmiT aRniSna:

`saqarTvelos Zalian kargi sainvesticio garemo da martivi sagadasaxado

reJimi aqvs. igi mimzidvelia mravali qveynis, maT Soris, CineTis potenciu-

ri investorebisTvis. 2015 wels CineTidan Semcirebuli pirdapiri ucxouri

investicia ar niSnavs, rom saqarTvelo Cineli investorebisTvis mimzidveli

qveyana aRaraa.~ 15

saqarTvelo ramdenime iseTi saerTaSoriso institutis wevria, romelsac CineTi

xelmZRvanelobs. maT Sorisaa aziis infrastruqturis sainvesticio banki (AIIB).

Tbilisma 2015 wels AIIB-is mTavari molaparakebebis rigiT me-6 Sexvedras uma-

spinZla. AIIB-is cnobiT, saqarTvelo „strategiuladaa ganTavsebuli Sav zRvasa

da kaspiis zRvas Soris, rac mas regionuli satranzito derefnis funqcias sZens.

satransporto da sxva sakomunikacio infrastruqturaSi investirebiT, banks Seu-

Zlia mniSvnelovani roli iTamaSos regionuli vaWrobis ganviTarebaSi dasavleT

aziis, centraluri aziisa da evropis ufro metad dakavSirebiT“16. 2017 wlis 15

ivniss saqarTvelom AIIB-Tan xeli moawera 114 mln. aSS dolaris Rirebulebis

xelSekrulebas, romlis mixedviTac, banki baTumis SemovliTi gzis proeqts daa-

finansebs. proeqtis mizani saqarTvelosa da TurqeTs Soris komerciuli trans-

portis mimosvlis xelSewyobaa, romelic rogorc CineTis, ise saqarTvelos inter-

esebs emsaxureba17.

CineTisTvis saqarTvelo misi satransporto kvanZis funqciis gaTvaliswinebiT

aris mniSvnelovani, romelsac „sartyelisa da gzis“ iniciativiT aziis evropasTan

daakavSireba SeuZlia. saqarTvelo ukve gawevrianda regionul infrastruqturul

14 giorgi mJavanaZe (ufrosi mkvlevari Tbilisis saerTaSoriso ekonomikis skola, Tbilisis saxel-

mwifo universiteti) avtorTan gasaubreba, seqtemberi 2017. 15 Madona Gasanova, “Chinese Investments to Georgia to Surge in 2016”, The Financial, wvdomis TariRi 7

seqtemberi, 2017, http://www.fi nchannel.com/index.php/world/georgia/56004-chinese-investments-in-georgia-to-surge-in-2016. 16 “Georgia: Batumi Bypass Road Project”, AIIB.org, wvdomis TariRi 5 ivlisi, 2017, https://www.aiib.org/en/projects/approved/2017/batumi-bypass-road-project.html.17 iqve.

11

iniciativa _ evropa-kavkasia-aziis satransporto derefanSi (TRACECA), romelic

savaraudod „sartyelisa da gzis“ iniciativis safuZveli gaxdeba18. amasTan, saqa-

rTvelo monawileobs transkaspiur saerTaSoriso satransporto marSrutis ini-

ciativaSi (TITR). TITR „sartyelisa da gzis“ iniciativis formatis qveS 2016 wlis

oqtomberSi Seiqmna da CineTs yazaxeTis, azerbaijanisa da saqarTvelos gavliT,

ukrainasa da TurqeTTan daakavSirebs19.

miuxedavad imisa, rom CineTi saqarTvelos sagareo savaWro brunvisa da pidapiri

ucxouri investiciis mniSvnelovani wyaroa, mcirea imis riski, rom rogorc aziis

zogierTi patara qveyana, saqarTveloc zedmetad damokidebuli gaxdes masze. am

safrTxis Tavidan acilebaSi saqarTvelos, erTi mxriv, CineTisgan geografiuli

siSore, xolo, meore mxriv, regionul moTamaSeebTan _ azerbaijanTan, evrokavSir-

Tan da TurqeTTan _ mWidro ekonomikuri urTierTobebi exmareba. amJamad CineTze

modis importirebuli samomxmareblo produqtis SedarebiT mcire da aramzardi

nawili. CineTis mier eqsportirebuli samomxmareblo produqtis kategoriebis

did nawils saqarTveloSi sxva qveynebi, gansakuTrebiT ki TurqeTi iTvisebs20.

saqarTvelo-CineTis urTierTobebi diplomatiisa da

usafrTxoebis sferoSi

saqarTvelosa da samxreT kavkasiis mimarT CineTi umniSvnelo diplomatiur da

strategiul interess gamoxatavs. nacvlad amisa, CineTi yuradRebas amaxvilebs

naklebad politizirebul sakiTxebze _ iseTze, rogoricaa savaWro urTierTobe-

bi da infrastruqturuli investiciebi. CineTi regionSi samxedro kontingentiT

warmodgenili araa da naklebad savaraudoa, am mimarTulebiT uaxloes momavalSi

rame Seicvalos. Tumca, saqarTvelosa da CineTis diplomatiuri urTierTobebi

TanxvedraSia saxelmwifo suverenitetisa da teritoriuli mTlianobis sakiTx-

ebTan dakavSirebiT. 2008 wlis seqtemberSi CineTis sagareo saqmeTa saministrom

SeSfoTeba gamoTqva „samxreT oseTsa da afxazeTSi ganviTarebul movlenebze“

18 TRACECA 1993 wels Camoyalibda evrokavSiris xelmZRvanelobiT evrokavSirsa da azias Soris

vaWrobis da sagzao, sarkinigzo da sazRvao transportis xelSewyobis mizniT. Tavdapirvelad masSi

rva qveyana iyo gawevrianebulfi _ somxeTi, azerbaijani, saqarTvelo, yazaxeTi, yirgizeTi, tajik-

eTi, TurqmeneTi, uzbekeTi _ xolo mogvianebiT gaerTianebas irani, moldova, rumineTi, TurqeTi

da ukraina SeuerTda. 19 Yerbolat Uatkhanov, “Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan and Georgia sign Trans-Caspian International Trans-port Route protocol”, The Astana Times, bolo cvlileba 7 aprili, 2017, wvdomis TariRi 14 agvisto,

2017. http://astanatimes.com/2017/04/kazakhstan-azerbaijan-and-georgia-sign-trans-caspian-internation-al-transport-route-protocol/. 20 2015 wels CineTidan mTliani samomxmareblo saqonlis importis moculobam 257 mln. lari Sead-

gina, mTliani moculobis daaxloebiT 6%. gansxvavebiT CineTisgan, saqarTvelos mTavari impor-

tis wyarodan _ TurqeTidan _ samomxmareblo saqonlis importma 693 mln. aSS. dolari Seadgina,

mTliani moculobis daaxloebiT 16%. (wyaro: wits.worldbank.org).

12

da xazi gausva ruseTis gadawyvetilebas afxazeTisa da samxreT oseTis teri-

toriebis damoukidebel respublikebad aRiarebis Taobaze21. CineTi dRemde ga-

nagrZobs saqarTvelos teritoriuli mTlianobis mxardaWeras22. aRsaniSnavia, rom

CineTis mxardaWera saqarTvelos teritoriuli mTlianobisadmi ufro mtkicea,

vidre es ukrainis SemTxvevaSia. magaliTad, 2014 wlis martSi CineTma Tavi Seikava

gaeros usafrTxoebis sabWos rezoluciis mxardaWerisgan, romelic yirimis ref-

erendumis Sedegebs ugulebelyofda. CineTis mxridan saqarTvelos mimarT mtkice

mxardaWera mianiSnebs, rom saqarTvelo-CineTis urTierTobebi mxolod vaWrobisa

da investiciebis sferoTi ar Semoifargleba.

saqarTvelo ar aris Sanxais TanamSromlobis organizaciis (SCO) wevri, romelic

2001 wels CineTis xelmZRvanelobiT Seiqmna. Tumca saqarTvelos pozicia xSirad

emTxveva organizaciis sxva wevri qveynebis poziciebs. Sanxais TanamSromlobis or-

ganizacia, iseve rogorc saqarTvelo, terorizmis, separatizmisa da eqstremizmis

„sami borotebis“ winaaRmdeg ibrZvis. 2008 wlis agvistos omis Semdeg, ruseTis

sagaremo saqmeTa saministros moTxovnis miuxedavad, uSiSroebis sabWos wevrma

qveyneba moskovis pozicias mxari ar dauWires da mis nacvlad, pozicia „duSanbes

deklaraciis“ saxiT daafiqsires, sadac mxreebs samxeT oseTSi arsebuli prob-

lemebis gadasaWrelad dialogisa da molaparakebebisken mouwodebdnen23. „duSan-

bes deklaracia“ ruseTisTvis diplomatiuri marcxi iyo, radgan igi uSiSroebis

sabWoSi sakuTari poziciis mxadaWerasa da samxreT oseTisa da afxazeTis damou-

kideblobis aRiarebas lobirebda24.

saqarTveloSi CineTis interesebi ekonomikur sferos moicavs. Tumca, rogorc

zemoT aRiniSna, or qveyanas mWidro diplomatiuri TanamSromlobis safuZvelic

aqvs. amasTan, Rrma ekonomikur urTierTobebs geopolitikuri Sedegic mosdevs

_ mzard ekonomikur CarTulobasTan erTTad, izrdeba CineTis interesi saqarT-

velos stabilurobisa da usafrTxoebis mimarT. es interesi kidev ufro gaRr-

mavdeba Tu saqarTvelo „sartyelisa da gzis“ iniciativaSi sakuTar CarTulobas

gaafarTovebs.

21 “China ‘concerned’ of situation in S. Ossetia, Abkhazia”, Xinhua News Agency, bolo cvlileba 28 agvis-

to, 2008, wvdomis TariRi 14 ivnisi, 2017, http://www1.china.org.cn/international/foreign_minis-try/2008-08/28/content_16349443.htm.22 Paul Stronski and Alexandra Vreeman, “Georgia at Twenty-Five: In a Diffi cult Spot”, Carnegie Endow-ment, bolo cvlileba 25 maisi, 2017, wvdomis TariRi 1 ivnisi, 2017, http://carnegieendowment.org/2017/05/25/georgia-at-twenty-fi ve-in-diffi cult-spot-pub-70074.23 “Dushanbe Declaration”, Shanghai Cooperation Organization, bolo cvlileba 27 agvisto, 2008, wvdomis

TariRi 15 agvisto, 2017, http://eng.sectsco.org/load/198068/. 24 “SCO Fails to Back Russia over Georgia”, RFE-RL, bolo cvlileba 28 agvisto, 2008, wvdomis TariRi

28 ivnisi, 2017, https://www.rferl.org/a/SCO_Fails_To_Back_Russia_Over_Georgia/1194578.html.

13

„sartyelisa da gzis“ iniciativa

CineTma „sartyelisa da gzis“ iniciativis Sesaxeb oficialurad 2013 wels ga-

nacxada da mas „saukunis proeqti“ uwoda25. „sartyelisa da gzis“ iniciativa sxva-

dasxva proeqtebis erTobliobaa, romelic faravs rogorc saxmeleTo, ise sazR-

vao derefnebs da masSi CarTulia 65 saxelmwifo, msoflio mosaxleobis TiTqmis

⅔ da globaluri mSp-is ⅓. Tumca, iniciativa ufro koncefciaa, vidre mkafiod

Camoyalibebuli proeqtebis erToblioba da sakmarisad moqnilia imisTvis, rom

faravdes axal da manamde arsebul proeqtebs. „sartyelisa da gzis“ iniciativa

miznad isaxavs Cinuri saqonlisTvis savaWro gzebis gaxsnas da CineTis dasavleTi

nawilis, maT Soris, arastabiluri sinZianis sasazRvro regionis, usafrTxoebis

uzrunvelyofas. „sartyelisa da gzis“ iniciativis kidev erTi mizani ruseTidan

da centraluri aziidan CineTSi mimavali energo resursebis stabilurobis uz-

runvelyofaa. CineTis xedviT, vaWrobisTvis fizikuri da politikuri bariere-

bis moxsniT, eqsportisTvis axali bazrebi gaixsneba da mWidro ekonomikuri Ta-

namSromloba regionis usafrTxoebis uzrunvelyofis garantia iqneba. warmatebiT

ganxorcielebis SemTxvevaSi, proeqti CineTis mTavrobis sagareo politikis oTx-

ive mizans miaRwevs26:

1) periferiaSi mSvidobis SenarCuneba (ekonomikuri ganviTarebiTa da antiteror-

istul saqmmianobaSi TanaSromlobiT);

2) maRali ekonomikuri zrdis SenarCuneba (ucxour bazrebze wvdomis SenarCunebis

meSveobiT);

3) Sida wesrigis SenarCuneba (ixileT pirveli da meore mizani);

4) saerTaSoriso statusis SenarCuneba (evraziaSi regionuli Zalis statusis mop-

ovebiT).

25 iniciativas Tavdapirvelad „erTi sartyeli, erTi gza“ ewodeboda, Tumca saxeli politikuri

mizezebiT Seicvala. 26 Robert D. Blackwill and Ashley J. Tellis, “Revising U.S. Grand Strategy Toward China”, Council on Foreign Relations, Special Report No. 72, March 2015, wvdomis TariRi 22 agvisto, 2017, p. 10-17.

14

wyaro: The Economist

„sartyelisa da gzis“ iniciativa Sedgeba saxmeleTo komponentisa (abreSumis gzis

ekonomikuri sartyeli (SREB)) da sazRvao komponentisgan (21-e saukunis sazRvao

abreSumis gza). abreSumis gzis ekonomikuri sartyelis mTavari mizani axal da

arsebul satransporto derefnebSi investirebiT, „CineTsa da evropas Soris ar-

sebuli manZilis Semcirebaa“27. iniciativa moicavs 6 derefans, romelic CineTs ev-

ropasTan akavSirebs sxvadasxva saxmeleTo gziT (saqarTvelo pirdapiraa CarTuli

CineTi-centraluri azia-dasavleT aziis derefanSi).

abreSumis gzis ekonomikuri sartyelis mravalmxrivi maxasiaTeblebi CineTs maq-

simalurad aZlevs strategiuli berketis gamoyenebis saSualebas. imis gaTvalis-

winebiT, rom CineTs evropasTan araerTi damakavSirebeli gza gaaCnia, verc erTi

qveyana ver moaxerxebs vaWrobis an investirebis sakuTari pirobebis wamoyenebas.

Sesabamisad, es aris erTi sartyeli, romelsac sxvadasxva damoukidebeli ganStoe-

ba aqvs. „sartyelisa da gzis“ inicitiva mimarTulia ormxriv SeTanxmebebze CineTsa

da mis SedarebiT mcire partniorebs Soris, mravalmxrivi jgufebis Carevis ga-

reSe. amgvari urTierToba iseT sistemas gamoxatavs, sadac produqciis gadineba

da Semodineba centraluri punqtis gavliT xdeba. Tumca, aRsaniSnavia, rom „sar-

tyelisa da gzis“ iniciativis masStabi monawile qveynebs mravalmxriv formatSi

TanamSromlobis stimulsac aZlevs.

27 Pieter Van Dijk, Patrick Martens, “The Silk Road and Chinese interests in Central Asia and the Caucasus: the case of Georgia” (prezentacia, MSM 2016 Research Conference, 30 agvisto, 2016 (gv. 3)).

15

wyaro: Hong Kong Trade Development Council

CineTis saxelmwifo „sartyelisa da gzis“ iniciativas sami saxelmwifo finansuri in-

stitutiT afinansebs: abreSumis gzis fondi, CineTis ganviTarebis banki da CineTis

eqsportisa da importis banki. „sagareo urTierTobebis evropuli sabWos“ Sefase-

biT, mxolod CineTis mTavrobas wliurad imxela dafinansebis gamoyofa SeuZlia,

rac msoflio banksa da aziis ganviTarebis banks erTad28. amasTan, proeqtisTvis

dafinansebas gamoyofs CineTis xelmZRvanelobiT Seqmnili ori saerTaSoriso insi-

titutic: pekinSi dafuZnebuli aziis infrastruqturis sainvesticio banki (AIIB)

da SanxaiSi dafuZnebuli axali ganviTarebis banki (New Development Bank - NDB,

romelsac zogjer BRICS _ brazilia, ruseTi, indoeTi, CineTi, samxreT afrika -

saxelmwifoebis bankad moixsenieben) _ jamuri 150 mlrd. aSS dolaris registri-

rebuli kapitaliT. „sartyelisa da gzis“ iniciativasTan dakavSirebul proeqtebs

aseve afinanseben kerZo investorebi CineTidan da msoflios sxva qveynebidan.

„sartyelisa da gzis“ iniciativasTan dakavSirebuli infrastruqturuli proeqte-

28 Mathieu Duchâtel, François Godement, Kadri Liik, Jeremy Shapiro, Louisa Slavkova, Angela Stanzel and Vessela Tcherneva, “Eurasian Integration: Caught Between Russia and China”, European Council on Foreign Relations, bolo cvlileba 7 ivnisi, 2016, wvdomis TariRi 10 ivlisi, 2017, http://www.ecfr.eu/article/essay_eurasian.

16

bi 2016 wels 401 mlrd. aSS dolarad Sefasda, rac wina welTan SedarebiT 2.1%-ian

zrdas warmoadgenda29. 2.1%-iani zrda mokrZalebulia, Tumca unda aRiniSnos, rom

„sartyelisa da gzis iniciativaSi“ monawile qveynebis saSualo ekonomikuri zrda

2016 wels Senelda. damatebiT 93 mlrd. aSS dolaris investicia moxda 2016 wels

„sartyelisa da gzis“ iniciativasTan dakavSirebul Serwymisa da Sesyidvis (merg-ers and acquisitions) Sedegad30.

PWC-is angariSis mixedviT, ganxorcielebuli proeqtebis raodenobis mkveTrad

Semcirebis miuxedavad, iniciativis farglebSi ufro meti Rirebulebis gamo-

muSavebis Sedegad, 2016 wels proeqtis saSualo Rirebulebis gazarda gaxda Ses-

aZlebeli31. es ki imas niSnavs, rom CineTis mTavroba, iseve rogorc proeqtebis

ganmaxorcielebeli kompaniebi da finansuri institutebi, proeqtebis raodenobas

maT xarisxss amjobineben, rasac PWC „xarisxisken swrafvas“ uwodebs32. mogebis

maZiebeli investorebi ki am SemTxvevaSi, savaraudod, saqarTvelos mianiWeben up-

iratesobas, susti biznes garemos mqone sxva qveynebTan SedarebiT.

saqarTvelos adgili „sartyelisa da gzis iniciativaSi~

vinaidan dokumentSi aqcenti gakeTebulia saqarTvelo-CineTis urTierTobebze,

analizi mxolod abreSumis gzis ekonomikur sartyels (SREB) Seexeba. saqarTve-

los mTavrobam mniSnvelovani Zalisxmeva gaiRo CineTTan urTierTobebis gaRr-

mavebisTvis xsenebuli iniciativis konteqstSi. CineTis Xinhua sainformacio saa-

gentosTan 2017 wlis maisis interviuSi, saqarTvelos finansTa ministrma dimiti

qumsiSvilma xazi gausva SREB iniciativaSi saqarTvelos CarTulobas „regionis

dakavSirebis, adamianuri kapitalis mimocvlisa da vaWrobisa da investiciebis

gazrdis xelSewyobis mimarTulebiT“33.

saqarTvelo pirdapir aris CarTuli CineTi-centraluri azia-dasavleT aziis

derefanSi, romelic SREB-is eqvsi Semadgeneli derefnidan erT-erTi derefania

da aRmosavleTiT CineTs, xolo dasavleTiT TurqeTsa da Sav zRvas akavSirebs.

saqarTvelo CineTs CineTi-centraluri azia-dasavleT aziis derefnis rogorc

saxmeleTo, ise sazRvao satranzito marSrutebs sTavazobs. saqarTvelo uzrun-

velyofs TurqeTTan saxmeleTo mimosvlas, gansakuTrebiT baqo-Tbilisi-yarsis

29 Gabriel Wong, Simon Booker, and Guillaume Barthe-Dejean, “China and Belt & Road Infrastructure: 2016 review and outlook”, PWC B&R Watch, Tebervali 2017: 9.30 iqve, gv. 11. 31 “China and Belt & Road Infrastructure: 2016 review and outlook”: 11. 32 iqve. 33 “Interview: Georgia to contribute to Belt and Road Initiative: deputy PM”, Xinhua News Agency, bolo cvlileba 10 maisi, 2017, wvdomis TariRi 4 agvisto, 2017, http://news.xinhuanet.com/en-glish/2017-05/09/c_136266698.htm.

17

rkinigzis daxmarebiT. rkinigzis mSeneblobis dasrulebis Semdeg, bosforis sru-

teze aziis evropasTan damakavSirebel iavuz sulTan selimis xidTan erTad saqa-

rTvelos evropasTan uwyveti sarkinigzo kavSiri eqneba34. saqarTvelos aseve Seu-

Zlia evropaSi sazRvao gasasvlelis uzrunvelyofa baTumis, foTis da anakliis

portebis meSveobiT.

am SemTxvevaSi, 2.5 mlrd.aSS dolaris Rirebulebis anakliis Savi zRvis Rrma wylis

porti gansakuTrebiT yuradsaRebia. porti, romlis dasrulebac 2020 wlisTvis

igegmeba, saqarTvelos pirveli Rmra wylis (17 metri siRrmis) porti iqneba, rom-

lis gamtarobac wliurad 900,000 oci-futis ekvivalenti erTeuli (Twenty-Foot Equivalent Units – TEU) iqneba, rac am etapze saqarTvelos udidesi portis _ foTis

portis gamtarobaze 50%-iT metia35. portis kompleqsSi aseve iqneba Tavisufali

industriuli zona, rac bizness produqciis saeqsportod warmoebisas gadasaxa-

disgan gaaTavisuflebs.

CineTi-centraluri azia-dasavleT aziis derefani evropa-kavkasia-aziis satrans-

porto derefnis (TRACECA) mier Seqmnil satransporto xazs efuZneba, romlis

wevric saqarTvelo 1993 wels gaxda36. CineTis gadawyvevtileba TRACECA-s ukve

arsebuli infrastruqturis Canacvlebis magivrad, misi gamoyeneba xazs usvams

„sartyelisa da gzis“ iniciativis fundamentur koncefcias: CineTi cdilobs Seqm-

nas gansxvavebuli da inkluziuri satransporto derefnebi, romlebic ukve arse-

bul infrastruqturul iniciativebs daemateba da Seavsebs.

„sartyelisa da gzis“ iniciativa saqarTvelosTvis warmoadgens SesaZleblobas

gaxdes ori axladSeqmnili regionuli formatis GUAM-isa da azerbaijani-saqa-

rTvelo-TurqeTis sammxrivi TanamSromlobis inicitivis damakavSirebeli centri.

GUAM-is farglebSi saqarTvelos unikaluri adgilmdebareoba aqvs Savi zRvis

portiT CineTis ukrainasTan da moldovasTan dasakavSireblad. es ki gansakuTre-

biT mniSvnelovania, radgan ukraina-CineTis vaWroba mniSvnelovnad gaizarda 2013

wlis Semdeg. 2015 wels CineTi ukrainis sasoflo-sameurneo saeqsporto nawarmis

udidesi momxmarebeli da ukrainis mTliani saeqsporto produqciis sididiT mes-

34 John C.K. Daly, “China deepens its presence in Georgia via its ‘One Road, One Belt’ initiative”, The Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst, bolo cvlileba 12 dekemberi, 2016, wvdomis TariRi 28 ivnisi, 2017, https://www.cacianalyst.org/publications/analytical-articles/item/13413-china-deepens-its-presence-in-georgia-via-its-one-road-one-belt-initiative.html. 35 Joseph Larsen, “Georgia: The Black Sea Hub for China’s ‘Belt and Road’”, The Diplomat, bolo cvlileba 3 maisi,

2017, wvdomis TariRi 7 agvisto, 2017, https://www.google.ge/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&c-d=1&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0ahUKEwilpt-VktvVAhXqO5oKHUpkBDMQFggkMAA&url=http%3A%2F%2Ft-hediplomat.com%2F2017%2F05%2Fgeorgia-the-black-sea-hub-for-chinas-belt-and-road%2F&usg=AFQjCNGn-8pRvhl1HvTQ2-_6p5mm1tuLkqg.36 jer kidev oficialurad funqcionirebis miuxedavad, TRACECA warumatebel proeqtad miiCneva.

1993 wels misi wamowyebidan dRemde, evrokomisiam, romelic am procesis wamyvan Zalad iTvleba,

TRACECA-s jamSi 178 mln. evros moculobis mxolod 85 proqti daafinansa.

18

ame momxmarebeli iyo37. 2015 wels ukraina formalurad SeuerTda SREB-is inicia-

tivas da transkaspiuri saerTaSoriso satransporto marSutiT (TITR), saqarTve-

los, azerbaijanisa da yazaxeTis gavliT CineTSi matarebeli gagzavna38.

transkaspiuri saerTaSoriso satransporto marSrutis iniciativaSi (TITR) monaw-

ileobasTan erTad, saqarTvelom ukrainasTan infrastruqturuli kavSirebi gaa-

Zliera. anakliis Savi zRvis Rrma wylis portis dasruleba xels Seuwyobs ormxrivi

vaWrobis ganviTarebas39. axal ports SesaZlebloba eqneba moemsaxuros ukrainidan

momaval da ukrainaSi gasagzavn 10,000 TEU sakonteinero gems, risi SesaZleblobac

baTumisa da foTis portebs am etapze ar aqvT. imis gaTvaliswinebiT, rom GUAM-

is yvela qveyana „sartyelisa da gzis“ iniciativaSi sxvadasxva xarisxiT aris Car-

Tuli, maT infrastruqturisa da vaWrobis sferoSi TanamSromlobis gaRrmavebi-

sTvis damatebiTi stimuli eZlevaT.

saqarTvelos SeuZlia, aseTive roli iTamaSos azerbaijani-saqarTvelo-Tur-

qeTis sammxrvi TanamSromlobis formatSi. TanamSromlobis formati 2012 wlis

baqo-Tbilisi-jeihanis navTobsadenis gaxsnis Semdeg trabzonis deklaraciiT

Seiqmna. Sesabamisad, iniciativa rogorc regionuli TanamSromlobis Sedegi, ise

misi mamoZravebeli Zalaa. sammxrivi TanamSromlobis formatis pirveladi funqcia

azerbaijanidan da centraluri aziidan energo resursebis TurqeTSi transpor-

tirebis uzrunvelyofaa, sadac saqarTvelos geografiuli xidis funqcia aqvs40.

sam qveyanas ukve akavSirebs baqo-Tbilisi-yarsis rkinigza, romelic CineTi-cen-

traluri azia-dasavleT aziis derefnis nawilia. azerbaijani-saqarTvelo-Turqe-

Tis sammxrivi TanamSromlobis formati ekonomikuri TanamSromlobis „gadaRvris“

efeqtis gamovlinebaa: 2014 wlidan qveynebi yovelwliur Tavdacvis ministerialSi

iReben monawileobas41.

37 www.trademap.org, accessed August 7, 2017. 38 “Ukraine expects new infrastructure projects from Belt and Road forum: deputy minister”, Xinhua News Agency, bolo cvlileba 1 maisi, 2017, wvdomis TariRi 9 agvisto, 2017, http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2017-05/01/c_136247844.htm. 39 “Anaklia port – Georgia’s key to the new ‘Silk Road’ of the 21st century”, Front News International, bolo

cvlileba 6 agvisto, 2017, wvdomis TariRi 14 agvisto, 2017, https://frontnews.eu/news/en/9871/Anaklia-port-Georgias-key-to-the-new-Silk-Road-of-the-21st-century. 40 Michael Hikari Cecire “Turkey-Georgia-Azerbaijan: Trilateralism and the Future of Black Sea Regional Geopolitics”, The Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst, bolo cvlileba 16 oqtomberi, 2013, wvdomis TariRi

3 agvisto, 2017, https://www.cacianalyst.org/publications/analytical-articles/item/12837-turkey-geor-gia-azerbaijan-trilateralism-and-the-future-of-black-sea-regional-geopolitics.html. 41 Zaur Shiriyev, “Institutionalizing a Trilateral Strategic Partnership: Azerbaijan, Georgia, Turkey”, Konrad Adenauer Stiftung, 2016, wvdomis TariRi 6 seqtemberi, 2017, http://www.kas.de/wf/doc/kas_43884-1522-1-30.pdf?160111112351.

19

geopolitikuri Sedegebi

CineTis maRalCinosnebi cdiloben „sartyelisa da gzis“ iniciativa geopolitiku-

ri wamowyebis nacvlad, ekonomikur wamowyebad warmoaCinon. es wamowyeba moixse-

nieba, rogorc „iniciativa“ da ara rogorc „strategia“. rogorc CineTis sagareo

ministrma uang im 2015 wels ganacxada, aRniSnuli iniciativa ar aris „geopoli-

tikis instrumenti“42.

2015 wels CineTis erovnuli ganviTarebisa da reformebis komisiis mier gamo-

qveynebul TeTr wignSi xazgasmiT aris aRniSnuli, rom „sartyelisa da gzis“ ini-

ciativis mizani „farTo da Rrma regionuli TanamSromlobaa“ (avtoris xazgasma)43.

TeTr wignSi warmoadgenilia xuTi „kavSiri“, romelic „sartyelisa da gzis“ ini-

ciativis farglebSi moeqceva. am xuTi „kavSiridan“ sami ekonomikuri (infrastruq-

tura, vaWroba, finansebi), xolo ori strategiulia (politikis komunikacia da

„xalxis azrovnebasTan dakavSireba“)44. rogorc TeTr wignSia aRniSnuli, CineTis

mTavrobis mizania „sartyelisa da gzis“ iniciativa suverenul qveynebs Soris Ta-

namSromlobis Ria da inkluziuri formatis iniciativa iyos, romelic konkuren-

cias ar gauwevs institutionalizebul regionul struqturebs. magaliTad, is-

eTebs, rogoricaa evrokavSiri da evraziis ekonomikuri kavSiri.

„sartyelisa da gzis“ iniciativa ekonomikuri iniciativaa. Tumca, misi geopoliti-

kuri mniSvnelobac TvalsaCinoa. vaWroba da investireba politikur vakuumSi ar

xorcieldeba. qveynebi ver ganaxorcieleben geo-ekonomikur saqmianobas geopoli-

tikaSi CarTvis gareSe. robert gilpinis TqmiT, „ekonomikuri saqmianobis miznebi

da bazrebis roli am miznebis misaRwevad ganisazRvreba politikuri procesiT da

sazogadoebis mier saxelmwifosTvis delegirebuli pasuxismgeblobebiT“45. kerZo

Cinuri kompaniebis sabazro moqmedebebic ki politikuri Sexedulebebis gavlenis

qveS eqceva.

TeTr wignSi warmodgenilia konkretuli geopolitikuri miznebi, romlebic „sar-

tyelisa da gzis“ iniciativas „multipolaruli msoflios tendenciasTan morgebis“

saSualebad warmoaCens. es ki pirdapir ukavSirdeba saerTaSoriso asparezze Cine-

42 “China’s 2015 diplomacy focuses on ‘Belt and Road’”, Chinadaily.com, bolo cvlileba 3 marti, 2015,

wvdomis TariRi 5 ivlisi, 2017, http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/china/2015twosession/2015-03/08/con-tent_19750295_2.htm. 43 “Vision and Actions on Jointly Building Silk Road Economic Belt and 21st-Century Maritime Silk Road”, National Development and Reform Commission, Ministry of Foreign Affairs, and Ministry of Commerce of the Peo-ple’s Republic of China, bolo cvlileba 28 marti, 2015, wvdomis TariRi 5 ivlisi, 2017, http://en.ndrc.gov.cn/newsrelease/201503/t20150330_669367.html. 44 iqve.45 Robert Gilpin, Global Political Economy: Understanding the International Economic Order (Princeton University Press, 2001): 24.

20

Tis, rogorc mzardi Zalauflebis mqone qveynis, statuss da amerikis SeerTebuli

Statebis SedarebiT dasustebas46. nebiT Tu uneblieT, centralur aziasa da samx-

reT kavkasiaSi ekonomikuri CarTuloba CineTis mTavrobas regionis stabilurobis

SenarCunebis interess gauRviZebs. aSS-Si CineTis sagareo politikis mkvlevaris

TqmiT, „pekini cdilobs ‘sartyelisa da gzis’ iniciativis saSualebiT gazardos

CineTis zegavlena aziaSi da mis miRma“47.

2012 wels, pekinis universitetis saerTaSoriso strategiuli kvlevebis dekanma da

CineTis erT-erTma yvelaze gavlenianma akademikosma _ vang Zisma obamas aziisken

reorientaciis strategiis sapasuxod, CineTis „dasavleTisken marSis“ strategiis

Sesaxeb ganacxada48. vangis ideas strategiis mizanSewonilobis da sxva qveynebis

mxridan SesaZlo reaqciebis dasadgenad yuradRebiT swavlobdnen CineTis poli-

tikosebi. vangs da dasavleTisken marSis strategiis sxva mxardamWerebs es gza aSS-

sTan urTierTobebis marTvis maxvilgonivrul strategiad miaCniaT: or qveyanas

regionSi saerTo interesebi aerTianebs da CineTis meti CarTuloba damatebiTi

strategiuli berketia aSS-sTan urTierTobaSi, romelsac Zlieri mokavSireebi

Wirdeba avRaneTisa da pakistanis stabilizaciis procesSi mxardasaWerad.

„sartyelisa da gzis“ iniciativis geopolitikuri miznebi jer kidev SemuSavebis

procesSia. Tumca, udavoa, rom proeqts mniSvnelovani geopolitikuri komponenti

eqneba evraziaSi CineTis, rogorc dominanti saxelmwifos statusis gasamyareb-

lad. amas ki saqarTvelosTvis gansakuTrebuli mniSvneloba aqvs evraziis regionis

tradiciul hegemonTan _ ruseTTan daZabuli urTierTobebis gamo. CineTis uryev

CarTulobas SeuZlia Secvalos ruseTis strategiuli gaTvlebi saqarTveloSi da

mTlianad regionSi.

CineTisa da ruseTis urTierTobebi „sartyelisa da gzis“

iniciativis konteqstSi

ruseTisTvis „sartyelisa da gzis“ iniciativis Sedegebi kompleqsuria. 2015 wels

ruseTma Tanxmoba ganacxada iniciativisTvis mxari daeWira proeqtTan dakavSire-

biT arsebuli mRelvarebis miuxedavad. 2015 wlis maisSi ruseTma da CineTma „sar-

tyelisa da gzis“ iniciativasa da ruseTis xelmZRvanelobiT Seqmnil evraziis

ekonomikur kavSirs Soris partniorobis Sesaxeb ganacxades. CineTis prezident

46 Global Political Economy: 24.47 Xiaoyu Pu, “One Belt, One Road: Visions and Challenges of China’s Geoeconomic Strategy”, Academia.edu, wvdomis TariRi 15 ivnisi, 2017: 115. 48 Yun Sun, “March West: China’s Response to the U.S. Rebalancing”, The Brookings Institution, bolo cvlileba

31 ianvari, 2013, wvdomis TariRi July 5, 2017, https://www.brookings.edu/blog/up-front/2013/01/31/march-west-chinas-response-to-the-u-s-rebalancing/.

21

si ZinpinTan Sexvedris Semdeg, ruseTis prezidentma vladimer putinma xazi gaus-

va „evraziis ekonomikuri kavSirisa da abreSumis gzis proeqtebis integraciis“

mniSvnelobas da ori qveynis interess „kontinentze saerTo ekonomikuri sivrcis

Seqmnis Sesaxeb“49. ruseTi „sartyelisa da gzis“ iniciativis farglebSi SREB-is or

derefanSia CarTuli: CineTi-monRoleTi-ruseTis derefani da axali evraziuli

saxmeleTo xidi. ruseTi „sartyelisa da gzis“ iniciativas evraziuli ekonomi-

kuri kavSiris globalur doneze legitimaciis da CineTis investiciebis ruseT-

sa da evraziis ekonomikuri kavSiris sxva qveynebSi gadamisamarTebis meqanizmad

aRiqvams50. „sartyelisa da gzis“ iniciativas, SesaZloa, centraluri aziis energo

resursebis evropidan CineTisken mimarTva da, Sesabamisad, ruseTis resursebze

evropis moTxovnis gazrda moyhves, rac ruseTis energo mwarmoeblebs Seuwyobs

xels51.

rogorc oficialuri gancxadebebidan irkveva, CineTi da ruseTi am or inicia-

tivas axasiaTeben, rogorc erTmaneTis Semavsebels, da ara, rogorc erTmaneTis

konkurents. CineTi aziaSi ekonomikuri ganviTarebis lider qveynad aRiqmeba, maSin

rodesac ruseTi usafrTxoebisa da samxedro teqnikis uzrunvelmyofi saxelm-

wifoa. farTod gavrcelebulia mosazreba, rom ruseTma „sartyelisa da gzis“

iniciativaSi monawileoba evropisgan mzardi izolaciisgan Tavis dasacavad gad-

awyvita, maSin rodesac CineTi centralur aziaSi ruseTis samxedro yofniT sarge-

blis miRebas cdilobs. CineTi ruseTs centralur aziaSi stabilurobis da anti-

teroristuli moqmedebebis mxardaWeris mimarTulebiT mniSvnelovan moTamaSed

aRiqvams da gansakuTrebul yuradRebas yirgizeTis arastabilurobasa da CineTis

dasavleT provincias _ sinZians uTmobs.

zemoT aRwerili ori roli erTmaneTisgan ver gaimijneba. ruseTma bolo period-

Si evrokavSirTan izolaciiT gamowveuli efeqtis Sesustebis mizniT yuradReba

aRmosavleTze gadaitana. igi CineTze ZiriTadad ekonomikuradaa damokidebuli

da CineTis mier aRiqmeba rogorc umcrosi partniori. Tu ruseTisTvis misaRebi

ar aris daqvemdebarebulis rolSi ganusazRvreli vadiT yofna, amJamindeli Se-

Tanxmeba mdgradi strategiuli partniorobis winapiroba ver iqneba. istoriuli

gamocdilebidan gamomdinare, SeiZleba imis Tqma, rom ruseTi sabolood daubal-

ansebeli ZalTa dinamikiT daiRleba. Tu CineTis ekonomika zrdas, xolo ruseTis

49 “Russia, China agree to integrate Eurasian Union, Silk Road, sign deals”, RT, May 8, 2015, wvdomis Tari-

Ri 10 ivlisi, 2017, https://www.google.ge/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=1&cad=r-ja&uact=8&ved=0ahUKEwiDyt6gldvVAhWkdpoKHZoMBB4QFggoMAA&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.rt.com%2Fbusiness%2F256877-russia-china-deals-cooperation%2F&usg=AFQjCNFqVoOc3Fow_NSKeLu-WaQ4C2n32ZA. 50 Richard Ghasy and Jiayi Zhou, “The Silk Road Economic Belt: Considering security implications and EU-Chi-na cooperation prospects”, Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, February 2017, wvdomis TariRi 15

ivlisi, 2017: 40-41. 51 iqve.

22

ekonomika stagnacias gaagrZelebs, CineTis berketi ruseTis winaaRmdeg, didi al-

baTobiT, mxolod gaZlierdeba. amasTan, ruseTi „sartyelisa da gzis“ iniciativis

monawile mravali qveynidan mxolod erT-erTia. CineTs sxva mravali arCevani eqne-

ba evropaSi saqonlis transportireba ruseTis gverdis avliT ganaxorcielos.

maSin rodesac ruseTis oficialuri pirebi frTxilobdnen, rom ar gaemJRavne-

binaT realuri an SesaZlo bzari ruseT-CineTis urTierTobebSi, zogierTi rusi

eqsperti Tavs ar arideba ufro Riad saubars. 2009 wlis interviuSi („sartyeli-

sa da gzis“ iniciativis daanonsebamde) moskovis saerTaSoriso urTierTobebis

saxelmwifo institutis eqspertma mixail troickim Seafasa ruseTis eWvebi Cine-

Tis mimarT:

`Cven aseve eWvis TvaliT vuyurebT CineTis moqmedebebs centralur aziasa da

afrikaSi. amJamad debatebi mimdinareobs imaze, Tu rogor cdilobs CineTi

ruseTis damorCilebas. CineTs bevri aRiqvams mowinaaRmdeged da Cven mzad

unda viyoT CineTidan momavali SesaZlo safrTxisTvis _ gansakuTrebiT, So-

reul aRmosavleTSi, sadac arsebobs SiSi, rom regioni CineTis orbitaze mo-

eqceva.~ 52

kidev erTma rusma sinologma aRniSna CineTis CarTuloba ruseTis Soreul aRmo-

savleTSi da centralur aziaSi da ganacxada, rom „CineTi [ruseTisTvis] konkuren-

ti da Tavis tkivili xdeba~53.

amasTan, evraziis ekonomikuri kavSiri da „sartyelisa da gzis“ iniciativa erTma-

neTTan arc imdenad Tavsebadia, rogorc ruseTisa da CineTis oficialuri pire-

bi amtkiceben. or iniciativas radikalurad gansxvavebuli institucionaluri

dizaini aqvs _ evraziis ekonomikuri kavSiri regionuli da proteqcionistuli

organizaciaa, „sartyelisa da gzis“ iniciativa ki eqstra-regionuli da inkluzi-

uri54. CineTi „sartyelisa da gzis“ iniciativas uyurebs rogorc moqnil proeqts,

romelic Canacvlebis magivrad, Seavsebs sxva regionul iniciativebs. magaliTad,

CineTisTvis ruseTi, yazaxeTi da yirgizeTi proeqtis mTavari partniorebi arian,

miuxedavad imisa, rom es sami qveyana evraziis ekonomikuri kavSiris wevria. prob-

lema ki isaa, rom iniciativas ruseTi inkluziorobisa da moqnilobis principiT

ar pasuxobs. evraziis ekonomikuri kavSiri sabaJo kavSiria, romelic arawevri

qveynebis, maT Soris, CineTis produqciaze maRal tarifebs awesebs. aRniSnulma

problemebis winaSe ukve daayena yirgizeTi, romelsac Cinur saqonelze tarifebis

gazrda mouwia evraziis ekonomikuri kavSiris gare tarifebis politikasTan Ses-

abamisobaSi yofnis mizniT, ramac qveyanaSi samomxmareblo saqonelze fasis zrda

52 David Shambaugh, China Goes Global: The Partial Power (New York: Oxford University Press, 2014): 85. 53 iqve.54 “The Silk Road Economic Belt: Considering security implications and EU-China cooperation prospects”: 40.

23

gamoiwvia55. „sartyelisa da gzis“ iniciativa ufro did ekonomikur sargebels

iZleva vidre evraziis ekonomikuri kavSiri, rac met moqnilobaSi, met globalur

kavSirebsa da ucxour investiciebze met xelmisawvdomobaSi gamoixteba.

samomavlod, daZabulobas gaaRrmavebs CineTis mxridan diplomatiis ormxriv for-

matSi gadatanis gadawyvetileba, ris gamoc „sartyelisa da gzis“ iniciativa gax-

deba ormxrivi SeTanxmebebis masiuri qseli. am SemTxvevaSi, CineTisa da evraziis

ekonomikuri kavSiris mcire qveynebs Soris urTierToba, ruseTs gansakuTrebu-

li statusis mopovebis SesaZleblobas ar miscems. amdenad, urTerTTvsebadobaze

saubris miuxedavad, CineTisa da ruseTis interesebi erTmaneTTan mWidrod daka-

vSirebuli ar aris.

geopolitikuri Sedegebi saqarTvelosTvis

miuxedavad imisa, rom ar arsebobs samxreT kavkasiaSi ruseTisa da CineTis da-

pirispirebis maniSnebeli, ruseTis saxelmwifoebriobis da usafrTxoebis aRqmaSi

regions mniSnvelovani adgili uWiravs. Sesabamisad, regionSi CineTis CarTulo-

ba ruseTis garkveuli politikuri wreebisTvis safrTxed iqneba aRqmuli. saqa-

rTvelos mTavrobam unda ganaviTaros strategia ruseT-CineTis urTierTobebis

sapasuxod, romelic, erTi mxriv, unda iyos frTxili, magram amasTan iTvalis-

winebdes urTierTobiT miRebul SesaZleblobebsac. magaliTad, ekonomikuri da

strategiuli miznebis gaTvaliswinebiT saqarTvelom xeli unda Seuwyos CineTis

met CarTulobas. CineTTan savaWro da sainvesticio kavSirebi aramxolod ekonomi-

kuri zrdisTvis iqneba mniSvnelovani, aramed saqarTvelos gauCndeba SesaZleblo-

ba Seamsubuqos wnexi ruseTis mxridan. rogorc rumeri, sokolski da stronski

aRniSnaven:

`miuxedavad imisa, rom pekini da Tbilisi ufro ekonomikur sferoSi ari-

an partniorebi, vidre usafrTxoebis sferoSi, saqarTveloSi Cinur inves-

ticiebs usafrTxoebis mimarTulebiTac SeuZlia gauTvaliswinebeli sarge-

blis motana. pekinze moskovis ekonomikuri da politikuri damokidebulebis

fonze, saqarTveloSi CineTis yofna ruseTisTvis, savaraudod, farTo-

masStabiani samxedro intervenciis fass gazrdis.~ 56

55 “The Eurasian Economic Union: Power, Politics and Trade”, International Crisis Group, Europe and Central Asia Report #240 (2016): 11. 56 Eugene Rumer, Richard Sokolsky, and Paul Stronsky, “U.S. Policy Toward the South Caucasus: Take Three”, Carnegie Endowment, May 31, 2017, wvdomis TariRi 1 ivnisi, 2017, http://carnegieendowment.org/2017/05/31/u.s.-policy-toward-south-caucasus-take-three-pub-70122.

24

advilad warmosadgenia hipoTeTuri scenari, romlis mixedviTac, afxazeTsa da

samxreT oseTSi samxedro Zalis mniSvnelovani gazrdiT an samxedro moqmedebebis

an ekonomikuri sanqciebis muqariT ruseTi saqarTvelos winaaRmdeg dapirispire-

bis eskalaciis safrTxes qmnis. aseTi scenari winaaRmdegobaSi mova CineTis inter-

esebTan, imis Sesabamisad, Tu ramdenadaa CineTi saqarTvelosTan dakavSirebuli.

CineTze ruseTis ekonomikuri da diplomatiuri damokidebulebis fonze, CineTs

ruseTze gavlenis moxdena SeuZlia eskalaciis Tavidan aridebis mizniT. CineTma,

SesaZloa, Sewyvitos ruseTsa da sxva evraziuli ekonomikuri kavSiris qveyneb-

Si investiciebis ganxorcieleba da, amasTan erTad, berketad saqonlis vaWrobiT

miRebuli xelsayreli pozicia gamoiyenos57. rogorc finansuri resursiT mdidari

ufrosi partniori, CineTis xelSi ufro mZlavri berketia. amasTan, CineTze mzardi

ekonomikuri damokidebuleba SesaZloa ruseTisTvis iribi makontrolebeli Zala

aRmoCndes eskalaciis Tavidan asacileblad.

amis miuxedavad, CineTsa da ruseTs Soris daZanulobas SeuZlia garkveuli prob-

lemebi saqarTvelosac Seuqmnas. Tuki ruseTi gadawyvets, rom misi interesebi

aRar emTxveva „sartyelisa da gzis“ iniciativas, SesaZlebelia Careva sxva gziT,

magaliTad evraziuli ekonomikuri kavSiris qveynebis gadarwmunebiT, rom maT

monawileoba ar miiRon iniciativaSi. miuxedavad imisa, rom aRniSnulma SeiZleba

saqarTveloze pirdapiri gavlena ar iqonios, proeqtis warumatebloba CineTisT-

vis saqarTveloSi investirebas naklebad mimzidvels gaxdis. Sesabamisad, gamo-

savali delikaturi balansis moZebnaSia: saqarTvelosTvis aucilebelia CineTis

CarTuloba ekonomikuri zrdis da ruseTis mxridan wnexis Semsubuqebis mizniT,

magram ara im doneze, rom ruseTisgan uaryofiTi reaqcia gamoiwvios.

57 ruseTi ufro metad aris damokidebuli ormxriv vaWrobaze. 2016 wlisTvis, ruseTis mTliani

savaWro brunvis 14.1% CineTTan vaWrobaze modioda. amasTan, 2015 wels ruseTis bazris mxolod

2% modioda CineTis importze da 1.5% mis eqsportze. (wyaro: EY, World Bank).

25

savaraudo warumateblobebi

rogorc nebismieri ambiciuri saerTaSoriso iniciativa, aris SesaZlebloba, rom

„sartyelisa da gzis“ iniciativam kraxi ganicados ramdenime mizezis gamo. pirveli,

radganac iniciativa ufro koncefciaa, vidre mkafiod gansazRvruli proeqtebis

erToblioba, misi warmatebis an warumateblobis gazomva rTuli iqneba. meore,

iniciativa eyrdnoba iseTi qveynebis TanamSromlobas, romelTac gansxvavebuli

miznebi, perspeqtivebi da zogierT SemTvevaSi istoriulad omis da eTnikuri da

religiuri SuRlis memkvidreoba aqvT. bolos, proeqtis warmatebisTvis CineTis

mier gamoyofil sainvesticio Tanxebze metia saWiro.

im SemTxvevaSi, Tu ver moxerxda proeqtis saTanadod ganxorcieleba, „sartyelisa

da gzis“ iniciativa warsulSi warumateblad ganxorcielebuli araerTi grandi-

ozuli iniciativis beds gaiziarebs da mogebis arqonis gamo sabolood gaqreba.

miuxedavad imisa, rom CineTis mTavroba amtkicebs, rom iniciativa sabazro prin-

cipebs miyveba, skeptikosebis, magaliTad, Fitch-is reitingis mixedviT, iniciativas-

Tan dakavSirebuli proeqtebi adekvatur finansur Semowmebas ar gaivlian58.

amasTan, CineTis bankebs arasaxarbielo warsuli aqvT infrastruqturuli pro-

eqtebis riskebis marTvisa da resursebis efeqturad gadanawilebis mimarTulebiT.

arsebobs riski, rom politikuri miznebi finansur logikaze maRla dadgeba, rac

sabolood mniSvnelovnad Seamcirebs proeqtis momgebianobas. CineTis mTavrobam

scada riskebis Semcireba. agvistoSi erovnuli ganviTarebisa da reformis komi-

siam ganacxada, rom daiwyebda im Cinuri kompaniebis finansuri riskebis marTvis

mimarTulebiT xelmZRvanelobas, romlebic „sartyelisa da gzis“ iniciativis far-

glebSi ganaxorcielebdnen investiciebs59.

amasTan, iniciativis ganxorcielebas usafrTxoebis sakiTxebma SeiZleba SeuSalos

xeli. wels pakistanSi teroristebma ori sxvadasxva incidentis dros CineTis 12

moqalaqe mokles. mniSvnelovania aseve zogierTi monawile qveynis anti-Cinuri

sentimentebic. problemam Tavi centraluri aziis ramdenime qveyanaSi ukve iCina:

Cinelebis mier miwis kontrols protesti moyva 2016 wels yazaxeTSi, xolo imave

wels yirgizeTSi CineTis saelCo dabombes. anti-Cinuri ganwyobebi saqarTveloSic

SeiniSneba: 2014 wels leiboristuli partiis liderma Salva naTelaSvilma ga-

nacxada, rom saqarTvelo CineTis eqspansias ar dauSvebda60.

58 “Fitch: China’s One Belt, One Road Initiative Brings Risks” Reuters, bolo cvlileba 26 ianvari, 2017,

wvdomis TariRi 9 agvisto, 2017, http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSFit987609. 59 “China to Curb ‘Irrational’ Overseas Belt and Road Investment-State Planner” Reuters, bolo cvlileba

18 agvisto, 2017, wvdomis TariRi 21 agvosto, 2017, https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-econo-my-odi-idUSKCN1AY0FN. 60 “Newsletter #16”, Media Development Fund, wvdomis TariRi 7 agvisto, 2017, http://eurocommunicator.ge/mdf/uploads//16%20ENG-MDF-GDI%20Newsletter.pdf.

26

bolos, „sartyelisa da gzis“ iniciativisTvis saqarTvelos mniSvneloba ar unda

aRiqmebodes mocemulobad. saqarTvelos aqvs SesaZlebloba gaxdes satransporto

da lojistikuri kvanZi evropasa da azias Soris, Tumca mas konkurencias mainc

uweven ruseTi da iseTi zRvispira qveynebi, rogoricaa irani da pakistani (rom-

lebic 21-e saukunis sazRvao abreSumis gzis monawileebi arian). arsebuli Sesa-

ZleblobiT sargeblobisaTvis, saqarTvelos mTavrobam da kerZo seqtorma unda

moaxdinos demostrireba, Tu ratom aris qveyana uryevi ekonomikuri da politi-

kuri mxardaWeris Rirsi.

27

daskvna

saqarTvelo-CineTis urTierTobebma or qveyanas Soris 1992 wels diplomatiuri

urTierTobebis CamoyalibebiT daiwyo swrafad ganviTareba. ormxrivi kavSirebi

SesamCnevia vaWrobisa da pirdapiri ucxouri investiciebis sakiTxebSi, rac 2017

wlis maisSi or qveyanas Soris Tavisufali vaWrobis Sesaxeb xelSekrulebis xel-

moweriT gamoixata. CineTis samomxmareblo bazarze gazrdili daSveba da CineTidan

Semosuli pirdapiri ucxouri investiciebi saqarTvelos ekonomikuri ganviTare-

bis winapiroba iqneba. ekonomikuri urTierTobebi sxvadasxva sferoebSi, ufro

konkretulad ki diplomatiisa da (savaraudod) usafrTxoebis sferoebSi TanamS-

romlobis winapirobasac qmnis. ekonomikuri CarTulobis gaZlierebasTan erTad,

CineTs saqarTveloSi da samxreT kavkasiaSi stabilurobis SenarCunebis meti in-

teresi eqneba. „sartyelisa da gzis“ iniciativaSi saqarTvelos monawileoba gansa-

kuTrebiT mniSvnelovania, rac CineTTan urTierTobebis gaRrmavebis da mezobel

qveynebTan mravalmxrivi TanamSromlobis formats qmnis. es ki saqarTvelos re-

gionuli profilis gamokveTaSi daexmareba.

saqarTvelos unikaluri geografiuli mdebareoba da GUAM-sa da azerbaija-

ni-saqarTvelo-TurqeTis sammxrivi TanamSromlobis formats Soris pozicioni-

reba qveyanas saSualebas miscems evropisa da aziis damakavSirebeli xidi gaxdes.

saqarTvelos SeuZlia CineTsa da evropas Soris manZili Seamciros, rac „sar-

tyelisa da gzis“ iniciativis umTavresi mizania. amasTan, momsaxurebis seqtorSi

upiratesobebs qmnis saqarTvelos Zlieri biznes da saregulacio garemo, rac

„sartyelisa da gzis“ iniciativis kidev erTi komponentia.

„sartyelisa da gzis“ iniciativis farglebSi CineTTan gaRmavebuli TanamSromlo-

ba ruseTis mxridan wnexis SemsubuqebiT saqarTvelos usafrTxoebis garemosTvi-

sac xelsayrel pirobebs qmnis. rogorc iniciativis umcrosi partniori, ruseTs

ar gaaCnia sakmarisi berketi finansurad gacilebiT Zlier CineTTan urTierToba-

Si. pekins SeuZlia regionSi, maT Soris, saqarTveloSic, ruseTis samxedro agresi-

is fasi gazardos. ruseTis strategiuli gaTvlebis cvlilebiT, regionSi CineTis

mzardi CarTuloba, SesaZloa, saqarTvelos daexmaros usafrTxoebasTan dakav-

Sirebuli mTavari miznis miRwevaSi - ruseTis mxridan safrTxis SemcirebaSi.

28

rekomendaciebi

• mTavrobam unda uzrunvelyos evrokavSirTan Rrma da yovlismomcveli Tavis-

ufali savaWro sivrcis SeTanxmebis da CineTTan Tavisufali vaWrobis Sesaxeb

SeTanxmebis sruli da efeqturi ganxorcieleba. es saqarTvelos saSualebas

miscems, gaxdes savaWro centri evropasa da azias Soris, gazardos saeqspor-

to mrewveloba da gaxdes mimzidveli qveyana ucxoeli, maT Soris, Cineli

investorebisTvis.

• saqarTvelos Sida politika TanxvedraSi unda iyos Cineli investorebis

miznebTan. mTavrobam, misi miznebisa da prioritetebis naTlad Camoyalibebis

mizniT, unda SeimuSaos samoqmedo gegma CineTTan urTierTobaSi. samoqmedo

gegma unda moicavdes konkretul midgomebs CineTis mxridan saqarTveloSi

investiciis waxalisebisTvis. ufro konkretulad, mTavrobam da biznes aso-

ciaciebma aqtiurad unda imuSaon imisaTvis, rom saqarTvelo CineTis pidapi-

ri ucxouri investiciis ganxorcielebis adgili gaxdes. saqarTveloSi ganx-

orcielebuli pirdapiri ucxouri investiciebis raodenoba 2014 wlis Semdeg

Semcirda, rac metad koncentrirebuli midgomis saWiroebas warmoaCens.

• saqarTvelom unda isargeblos Tavisi unikaluri mdgomareobiT GUAM-isa da

sammxrivi TanamSromlobis formatSi da gaxdes damakavSirebeli xidi aziasa

da evropas Soris. ufro konkretulad, saqarTvelos SeuZlia CineT-Turqe-

Tisa da CineT-ukrainis savaWro da infrastruqturuli marSutebis centri

gaxdes.

• saqrTvelom unda gaaumjobesos Sida infrastruqtura da mmarTveloba imi-

saTvis, rom gaxdes ufro mimzidveli ekonomikuri partniori. baqo-Tbili-

si-yarsis rkinigzis warmatebiT dasrulebasTan erTad, saqarTvelom unda

gaaumjobesos sarkinigzo kavSiri portebTan, gansakuTrebiT, anakliis Savi

zRvis Rrma wylis portTan.

• mniSvnelovania infrastruqturuli ganviTareba. Tumca, saqarTvelos aseve

SeuZlia gamoiyenos momsaxurebis seqtorSi regionuli lideris pozicia.

ufro konkretulad, saqarTvelos mTavrobam da kerZo seqtorma yuradRe-

ba unda gaamaxvilon sabanko, informaciuli teqnologiebisa da telekomu-

nikaciis seqtoris ganviTarebaze, imisaTvis, rom qveyana regionuli momsax-

urebis centrad gadaiqces. aRniSnuli seqtorebis SedarebiTi upiratesoba

daemateba „sartyelisa da gzis“ iniciativis farglebSi ganxorcielebul in-

vesticias fizikuri infrastruqturis mimarTulebiT, rac aseve Seamcirebs

saqarTvelos damokidebulebas satransporto kvanZis fuqnqciaze.

29

• saqarTvelo yuradRebiT unda daakvirdes CineTisa da ruseTis urTierTo-

bebs. saqarTvelom unda scados CineTTan urTierTobis Tavis sasargeblod

gamoyeneba da ruseTTan poziciis gamyareba. Tumca, mniSvnelovania, rom es

ori Zala erTmaneTTan ar daapirispiros. CineTTan gaRrmavebulma urTier-

Tobebma ar udna gamoiwvios saqarTvelo-ruseTis urTierTobebis kidev ufro

metad daZabva.

• CineTi unda ganixilebodes rogorc arCevani da ara rogorc alternativa.

CineTi mniSvnelovani investiciebisa da sagareo vaWrobis wyaroa, romelsac

regionSi stabilurobisTvis xelSewyoba da ruseTs mxridan wnexis Semsubuqe-

ba SeuZlia. Tumca, nakleb savaraudoa, CineTi regionSi samxedro ZaliT Caer-

Tos da is namdvilad ver Caanacvlebs natos, rogorc umTavres partniors

usafrTxoebis sferoSi. CineTTan urTierTobebi unda SeeTavsos saqarTve-

los evro-atalntikur sivrceSi integraciis process.

CanawerebisTvis

josef larseni saqarTvelos politikis institu-

tis analitikosTa gunds 2016 wels SeuerTda. am-

Jamad misi kvlevis sferoa usafrTxoebisa da re-

gionuli integraciis sakiTxebi, maT Soris, CineTis

`sartyelisa da gzis~ iniciativa, natoSi integra-

cia da saqarTvelos demokratiuli ganviTareba.

josefi centraluri evropis universitetis saer-

TaSoriso urTierTobis mimarTulebis kursdam-

Tavrebulia. saqarTvelos politikis institutSi

muSaobis dawyebamde, is iyo kavkasiis kvleviTi

resursebis centris mkvlevari da Jurnalisti.

larsen@gip.ge