Metodologia para el analisis de redes sociales

Metodología para el Análisis de Redes SocialesMontse Fernández Crespo

II Jornadas de Ciberpolítica en España

Mayo de 2013

Metodología para el Análisis de Redes SocialesCanales monitorización

Metodología para el Análisis de Redes SocialesCanales de monitorización: Twitter

Encuesta tradicional

Predicting de future within social media“Moreover our predictions are consistently better than those produced by an

information market such as the Hollywood Stock Exchange, the gold standard in the

industry.”



Twitter Not So Good At Predicting Box Office Revenues After All“A new study of tweets about movies suggests they are not necessarily a good

predictor of box office revenues, say computer scientists .”


¿Por qué sus resultados difieren tanto?


?¿Por qué sus resultados difieren tanto

ceteris paribusMétodo en el que se mantienen constantes todas las variables de una

situación, menos aquella cuya influencia se desea estudiar.

Elementos comparados

Sujetos de comparación

Herramientas de análisis

Periodo captura

24 ordinary films

HSX

3 meses (2.89 millones de tweets)

Otros métodos propios

Sentiment analysis

34 nominated Oscar film

MDB y RottenTomatoes

2 meses (12 millones de tweets)

Otros métodos propios

Numerical ratings

Wong et al.Asur y HubermanDIFERENCIAS



The Pulse of News in Social Media: Forecasting Popularity

“Our experiments show that it is possible to estimate ranges of popularity with an overall accuracy of 84% considering only content features… Interestingly we have found that in terms of number of retweets, the top news sources on twitter are not necessarily the conventionally popular news agencies and various technology blogs such as Mashable and the Google Blog are very widely shared in social media. Overall, we discovered that one of the most important predictors of popularity was the source of the article. “



Twitter Mood Predicts The Stock Market

“The calmness of the public (measured by GPOMS) is thus predictive of the DJIA rather than general levels of positive sentiment as measured by OpinionFinder.”

87,6%

Precisión en la predicción diaria en los valores de

cierre del Dow Jones

6%

Reducción delMAE



Predicting elections with Twitter: What 140 characters reveal about political sentiment

“The mere number of tweets mentioning a political party can be considered a plausiblereflection of the vote share and its predictive power even comes close to traditional election polls.”

Cuantitativo ---- recuento menciones



Form tweets to polls: linking text sentiment to public opinion time series

“While our results vary across datasets, in several cases the correlations are as high as80%, and capture important large-scale trends. The results highlight the potential of text streams as a substitute and supplement for traditional polling.”

Presidential job approval in 2009

Pesidential elections polls in 2008

100% correlación

Correlación no significativa

Cualitativo- ---- Sentiment Analysis: OpinionFinder

While the results do not come without caution, it is encouraging that expensive and time-intensive polling can be supplemented or supplanted with the simple-to-gather text data that is generated from on line social networking.

Metodología para el análisis de Redes SocialesCanales de monitorización: Twitter

Limits of electoral predictions using Twitter

-Dataset 1: 2010 US Senate special election in Massachusetts- Dataset2: US Congressional elections 2010

“Unfortunately, we find no correlation between the analysis results and the electoral outcomes, contradicting previous reports.”

Cualitativo- ---- Sentiment Analysis: OpinionFinder Cuantitativo ---- recuento menciones


¿Por qué sus resultados difieren tanto?


?¿Por qué sus resultados difieren tanto

ceteris paribusMétodo en el que se mantienen constantes todas las variables de una

situación, menos aquella cuya influencia se desea estudiar.

Tumasjan et al.

O’Connor et al.

DIFERENCIAS

Gallo-Avello et al.

Cada tweet que menciona a un partido (candidato) es tomado como un “voto”.

No se han contabilizado los tweets en los que se mencionan

a candidatos opuestos.

Aunque se ha empleado el mismo tesauro, cada tweet podía únicamente pertenecer

a una de las tres categorías definidas (positiva, negativa o neutra.), y no a varias

de ellas.

Cada tweet podía pertenecer a varias de las tres categorías definidas (positiva,

negativa o neutra).


“Exploring the Characteristics of Opinion Expressions forPolitical Opinion Classification”Once we have properly identified a person’s ideology, we may be able to predict his or her opinions on various political issues.It is our goal for future work to explore viable approaches for ideology based on political opinion classification.

“Predicting de future within social media”

Sentiment analysis is a well-studied problem in linguistics and machine learning, with different classifiers and language models employed in earlier work [13], [14]. It is common to express this as a classification problem where a given text needs to be labeled as Positive, Negative or Neutral.


Metodología para el Análisis de Redes SocialesCanales de monitorización: FacebookCanales de monitorización: Facebook

U.S. Politics on Facebook (2010)

http://www.facebook.com/note.php?note_id=449141550881

EEUU 2010

77 ganadores con + likes 43 ganadores con +likes y – dinero

118 elecciones

Metodología para el Análisis de Redes SocialesCanales de monitorización: Facebook

http://www.facebook.com/note.php?note_id=449141550881


“What is a Social Network Worth? Facebook and Vote Share in the 2008 Presidential Primaries”Explainig Facebook Support in the 2008 Congressional Election Cycle”

Thus while Facebook supporter numbers would not be a useful predictor that foreshadows electoral victoryor defeat, the most electable candidates do have more Facebook supporters

14213 seguidores60339 seguidores

Metodología para el análisis de Redes SocialesCanales de monitorización: Facebook

Metodología para el Análisis de Redes SocialesCanales de monitorización: Google

“Detecting influenza epidemics using search engine query data”

About 90 million American adults are believed to search online for informationabout specific diseases or medical problemseach year7, making web search queries a uniquely valuable source of informationabout health trends.

This system is not designed to be a replacement for traditional surveillancenetworks or supplant the need forlaboratory-based diagnoses and surveillance.(...) Demographic data, often provided by traditional surveillance, cannot be obtained using search queries.

http://www.google.org/flutrends/about/how.html





“On the predictability of the U.S. Elections through search volume activity”

In this paper we report that Google Trends was, actually, not a good predictor of both the 2008 and 2010 elections

http://cs.wellesley.edu/~webtrust/insights/?cand_id=4

A variable that may have affected G-trends effectiveness as a tool for predicting political elections is the sentiment of a user’s query. It is difficult, though not impossible, to determine the circumstances behind a user’s search of the profile of a certain candidate to make a guess about that candidate’s public image and why a user might be interested in the candidate. This is part of future research that we plan for the next stage of our work.


http://cs.wellesley.edu/~webtrust/insights/?cand_id=4

Metodología para el Análisis de Redes SocialesCanales de monitorización: Otros

Early Prediction of Movie Box Office Success based onWikipedia Activity Big Data

“However, bridging between \real time monitoring" and \early predicting"remains as a big challenge. Here, we report on an endeavor to build a minimalistic predictive model for the financial success of movies based on collective activity data of online users. We show that the popularity of a movie could be predicted well in advance by measuring and analyzing the activity level of editorsand viewers of the corresponding entry to the movie in Wikipedia, the well-known online encyclopedia.”

boxofficemojo.com + wikipedia

Metodología para el Análisis de Redes SocialesCanales de monitorización: Wikipedia

http://arxiv.org/pdf/1211.0970v1.pdf

http://arxiv.org/pdf/1211.0970v1.pdf

Replublican candidates: The Wikipedia effect

“Millions of Americans use Wikipedia as their primary source of information about politicians. The user-edited encyclopedia comes up as the first or second search result for every candidate for the Republican nomination, and in most respects provides a very thorough and accurate profile of their lives and careers.”

“Wikipedia preserves every version of an article ever published, so it's possible to watch the evolution of a page over time. While all four major candidates were well known before the primary began, editors have continued to finesse their biographies and quarrel over their records. “

Metodología para el Análisis de Redes SocialesCanales de monitorización: Wikipedia

http://news.yahoo.com/wikipedia-edits-republican-primary.html

http://news.yahoo.com/wikipedia-edits-republican-primary.html

Amazon Election Heat Map 2012

“…los 'best-sellers' de corte republicano representan un 56% del total despachado, mientras que los de afiliación demócrata constituyen un 44%.”

“What about categorizing O’Reilly’s bookabout President Lincoln as a “red” book? “Well, Lincoln was a Republican, but that doesn’t add much.” Schluep says. “We did take into consideration Mr. O’Reilly’s background, as well as the buying habits of people who bought this book.”

Metodología para el Análisis de Redes SocialesCanales de monitorización: Amazon

Crawling Big Data in a New Frontier for Socioeconomic Research: Testing with Social Tagging

“On the other hand, the relation between users and resources, which is largely employed bytraditional Recommender Systems, changes into a ternary relation between users, resources,and tags, which is more complex to manage.”

Metodología para el Análisis de Redes SocialesCanales de monitorización: Delicious

¿Existe un Método único?

El análisis de redes sociales se caracteriza por la altaheterogeneidad de sus fuentes de información y las grandescantidades de datos disponibles para el estudio. Así, mientrasque el volumen de datos es un aspecto tremendamenteatractivo para la investigación, la diversidad de fuentes y susmodos de captura y entrega de información, suponen unabarrera metodológica que consigue que, en muchos casos, losresultados de los estudios se afirmen con salvedades nadadesdeñables, a la vez que imposibilitan la comparación entre“pares”.

Metodología para el Análisis de Redes SocialesConclusiones

With regards to the process of retrieval ofinformation, the method presented here wassomewhat complex but easy to apply if there issome computer knowledge. Nevertheless, workingin interdisciplinary teams could greatly help todevelop this kind of knowledge, as it was in ourcase. Though the technical process described wassuccessful, improvements are necessary in thefuture…

Metodología para el Análisis de Redes SocialesConclusiones

Una ponencia de…

Montserrat Fernández Crespo

@montsefc

[email protected]

Metodologia para el analisis de redes sociales

Social Media

Transcript of Metodologia para el analisis de redes sociales