Narayan prasad gaire
Transcript of Narayan prasad gaire
12 January, 2015
International Conference on Climate Change: Innovation and Resilience for Sustainable Livelihood
12-14 January 2015, Kathmandu, Nepal
Outline
Motivation/Background
Objectives
Study area
Materials and methods
Results and discussion
Conclusion
MOTIVATION -1
• Dendrochronology
Greek words,
dendron (= tree)
chronos (= time)
logos (= the study of)
Tree is a recorder &
biological databank
Versatile discipline = wider
applications
Tree rings = Sources of
proxy climatic data
MOTIVATION-2 Treelines = sensitive bio-monitors of CC
4
Photo: Mai-He Li 2010
Photo: Shiba Raj Ghimire 2011
OBJECTIVES
To assess treeline dynamics in the Nepal
Himalaya with Environmental (climate)
change
To reconstruct past climate of the Nepal
Himalaya
Study Area and Sites
Local climate trend Annual temperature change in Chame station(°C)
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
1947 1952 1957 1962 1967 1972 1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002 2007 2012
Pre
cipita
tion (
mm
)
Year
KCA RARA ANCA LNP
y = 0.113x - 221.8 R² = 0.179, P<0.06
0
5
10
1987 1992 1997 2002 2007
Te
mp
era
ture
(°C
)
Year
Annual average temperature in Langtang
A. Ecological mapping
8
Materials and Methods
Climate reconstruction and Teleconnection analysis
Dpl-R; KNMI Climate Explorer
Regeneration and growth - climate relationship
DPL-R, Dendroclim2002, = Correlation, regression
Population demography study
Standardization and Chronology dev- ARSTAN
Cross dating = Alignment plotting, math graphs, CDI
Error checking = COFECHA
Measurement- LINTAB5
Counting and Dating- Stereo Microscope
Air-drying, Mounting, Sanding & Polishing
Field visit and sample collection: >600 core samples
Material and Methods B. Dendrochronological Study
Data analysis…
10
(m/yr) positions obetween tw difference Time
position Old -position Recent shift of Rate
Camarero and Gutiérrez 2004, Climatic Change 63: 181–200
Materials and Methods…
Dendrochronological study in
Nepal = a glimpse
11
• More than 25 districts
• Over 20 species
.
.
.
Updated on Gaire et al 2013, FUUAST JOB
• Started in late 1970s
• First Institutional Lab- 2009
in NAST
Position of treeline or species limit (m asl)
KCA MBNP SNP LNP MCA RNP ANCA
Abies Limit
4136 3992-4060
4062-4141
3950 3984 3870 3763-3768
Betula Limit
4132 NA 4047-4132
>3950 4003 3903-3953
3802-3845
RESULTS
Treeline dynamics at Sagarmatha NP
0
5
10
15
20
25
1797 1827 1857 1887 1917 1947 1977 2007
Fre
qu
en
cy (
%)
Age class (year)
A. spectabilis
Treeline dynamics at Langtang NP-1
14
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
No
. o
f ste
m
DBH class (cm)
A. spectabilis
0
5
10
15
0-5
5-1
0
10-1
5
15-2
0
20-2
5
25-3
0
30-3
5
35-4
0
40-4
5
45-5
0
50-5
5
No
. o
f s
tem
DBH class (cm)
B. utilis
0
20
40
60
3730 3780 3830
Avera
ge A
ge (
yr)
Elevation (m, asl)
Gaire et al (2011), NJST
Spatio-
temporal
variation in establishment
Treeline dynamics in Manaslu CA
NP Gaire, M
Koirala, DR Bhuju,
HP Borgaonkar,
Climate of the Past, 2014
Tree species limit shift- MCA Average shift of A. spectabilis is 26.1 m per decade in past 160 yrs
Treeline Dynamics at Rara NP
Site chronologies of Abies spectabilis
18
Humla Manaslu CA Langtang NP Sagarmatha NP
Humla 1
Manaslu CA 0.128637 1
Langtang NP 0.150578 0.411815 1
Sagarmatha NP 0.085789 0.220071 0.203266 1
(a)
( c)
(b)
(d)
Climatic- tree growth & regeneration
Fig.6. Climate–growth & regeneration relationship; Abies ring width (a) and regeneration (b)
at Manaslu, Abies ring width at Langatang ( c), Humla(d). Symbols over the bar indicate the
level of significance of correlation coefficient.
Mean MJJA Tempr Reconstruction
13.00
13.50
14.00
14.50
15.00
15.50
16.00
16.50
1867 1887 1907 1927 1947 1967 1987 2007
Tem
pera
ture
(°C
)
Year
MJJA_Reconstucted MJJA_Observed 10 per. Mov. Avg. (MJJA_Reconstucted)
Manaslu Region Gaire et al 2013, CPD
Fig. 3 Tree-ring chronology of P. smithiana extending from AD 1591 to 2012 along with
sample depth and EPS threshold cut off. The thick line represents the 10 years spline-
smoothing curve
Ring width Chronology from Western Nepal
Himalaya U.K. Thapa, S.K. Shah, N.P.Gaire, D.R. Bhuju, Climate Dyamics
(In Press) DOI 10.1007/s00382-014-2457-1
Fig. 7 The reconstructed
March–May temperature
data filtered with a
smoothing spline with a
50 % frequency cut off of
10 years
Fig. Cold and Warm
periods in reconstructed
March–May temperature
MAM temp reconstruction in Western Nepal
Himalaya U.K. Thapa, S.K. Shah, N.P. Gaire, D.R. Bhuju, Climate Dynamics (In Press)
Fig: Correlation between
observed and estimated
temperature data and Sea
Surface Temperature (SST)
index for tropical Pacific
Ocean for the time period of
AD 1897–2012
Mean MAM Temp Reconstruction…
U.K. Thapa, et al (In
Press)
• The negative relationships
suggest that warm (cool)
spring season over the
western Nepal Himalaya
region are associated with
cool (warm) SSTs in the
following seasons.
• Climate of western Nepal has
linkages with spatio-temporal
climatic variability at a global
scale.
Conclusions • Dynamic treeline with differential regeneration and shifting of
species;Species-specific response to climate change
• The temperature reconstruction identified several periods of
warming and cooling but no consistent trend
• The negative relationships with SST and different Nino indices
suggest that warm (cool) spring season over the western
Nepal Himalaya region are associated with cool (warm) SSTs
in the following seasons
Way forward
• Extend studies in more treeline sites incorporating all treeline
forming species for modeling species distribution and treeline
position
• Extend dendroclimatic study & cover areas like
dendrohydrology, dendroglaciology, dendrogeomorphology,
etc in Nepal
Acknowledgements
Conference Organizing Team
Nepal Academy of Science and Technology (NAST)
CDES-TU
DHM, DNPWC, NTNC
Friends
Field assistants
Local peoples
Other helping hands