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Rantdo`s if dhtfrvfhodh

fst`iauhdifhsf fh _drd`.

Nas sdkudfhtfs rfscfhfs sah uh` rfoapdn`odh if n`

sfoodh \dkdnd` iaoucfht`n if n` ]fi \ant`drf.

Oahst`h if uh` mrfvf sdhapsds fh o`stfnn`ha if nas

fstuidas f dhlarcfs ardkdh`nfs rfi`ot`ias fh nfhku`

dhknfs`. Fh fnn` paifcas `prfod`r fn fhlaquf l`nsa y

surrf`ndst` y. samrf taia dhtfrvfhodahdst` oah quf

cdr`m`h y sdkufh cdr`hia n`s oarpar`odahfs prdv`i`s

quf idot`h n` pan!tdo` f"tfrdar if nas Fst`ias #hdias

p`r` uh` pasdmnf dhv`sdh `cfrdo`h`$%&'( `

tfrrdtarda sdrda. Fst`s oart`s hat`s fh o`stfnn`ha

pufifh sfr oahsunt`i`s fh nas iaoucfhtas )*+,- fh

dhkns fn`mar`i`s par idvfrs`s `kfhod`sfst`iauhdifhsfs y quf oahst`h fh n`s hat`s ` pdf if

p/kdh`.

Fstas `rt!ounas sf fhoufhtr`h m`2a ndofhod` Orf`tdvf Oaccahs. N` ]fi \ant`drf `utard0` n`

rfpraiuoodh if sus `rt!ounas ` oahidodh if quf sf odtf n` lufhtf y if quf ha sf`hcaidldo`ias hd utdnd0`ias oah ldhfs oacfrod`nfs )ndofhod` OO =?$(O$(+-.

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N` %&'( rffsordmf fn oahlndota sdrda

]fkrfs` Tassfl Mai`hsey, fn fxpfrta dsr`fna-fst`iauhdifhsf quf fsordmd n` gdstard` aldod`n

if `n-P`fi`. Ifspus if g`mfr fxpndo`ia, oah n` !`yar sfrdfi`i ifn !uhia, quf Mfh

"`ifh tr`m`#`m` sd!unt$hf`!fhtf p`r` %r`e y p`r` %r$h y quf &`i`! 'usfdh ldh`hod nas

`tfht`ias ifn (( if sfptdf!mrf if )**(, Mai`hsey y` ha tr`m`#` p`r` fn +ahkrfsa if nas

st`ias hdias hd p`r` fn Ifp`rt`!fhta if Iflfhs` sdha p`r` fn %hstdtut lr &tr`tfkdf-

/andtde- &dogfrgfdts- uhi 2drtsog`ltsmfr`tuhk 0%&/&2= if Mfrn?h, uh t`hquf pfhs`htf

`tn`htdst`.

stf pfrsah`#f `o`m` if pumndo`r uh` hat` samrd`!fhtf tdtun`i`]flnfxdahfs gfrtdo`s,

praluhi`s y `otu`ndz`i`s samrf _drd`. &f tr`t` if uh iaou!fhta m`s`ia fh `ous`odahfso`rfhtfs if taia luhi`!fhta y, oa!a t`n, ha g`y quf ta!`rna `n pdf if n` nftr`. h` nfotur`

http://www.voltairenet.org/IMG/pdf/A_Heretic_s_Up_Dated_Musings_on_Syria.pdf

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fhtrf n?hf`s rfsunt`, sdh f!m`rka, !uy dhstruotd9` fh n` !fidi` fh quf sf fstuidf oa!a uh

fslufr6a par f`!as n`s ias dh9fhodahfs fsfhod`nfs if fstfoufhtdst 3

- :fgfr$h y` tdfhf n` ma!m` `t!do` y fst$ ifspnfk`hia tai` uh` fstr`tfkd` p`r

`paifr`rsf if 8frus`nh y if "` 1fo`, p`r` oahtran`r ifspus n` tat`ndi`i ifn !uhia

!usun!$h. 5 tr`9s if uh` kufrr` sforft`, %r$h !`hdpun` `n 'f6mann`g, `n '`!`s f dhonusa `

nas ydg`idst`s fh oahtr` if n` 'fr!`hi`i 1usun!`h`.

- "` pan?tdo` dhtfrh` if &drd` oahsdstf fh uh #ufka if `nd`h6`s lnuotu`htfs if ias oahtr` uha3

0(= nas `n udt`s, nas irusas y nas eurias oahtr` 0)= nas suhhdt`s aoodifht`nd6`ias, nas`r!fhdas y nas ordstd`has artaiaxas, a 0B== nas fxtrf!dst`s suhhdt`s if n`s 6ah`s rur`nfs y if

nas m`rrdas pfrdlrdoas pamrfs if n`s odui`ifs. &fk@h Mai`hsey, taias fsas sfotarfs if n`

pamn`odh rf`nd6`h `otd9di`ifs idlfrfhtfs y 9d9fh fh 6ah`s idlfrfhtfs. &fk@h su 9frsdh,

I`!`soa fst$ `pndo`hia uh` pan?tdo` if nd!pdf6` thdo` !fid`htf n` fxpunsdh a fn

fxtfr!dhda if nas fxtrf!dst`s suhhdt`s fh n`s 6ah`s iahif, t`!mdh sfk@h Mai`hsey, sah

!dhardt`rdas, oa!a t`!mdh sfk@h fn `utar fh '`!` a fh 'a!s.

:ai` fst` gdstard` if ldoodh if Tassfl Mai`hsey fst$ oahofmdi` fh luhodh if uh`

hfofsdi`i fstr`tkdo` if n` `nd h6` :fn 59d9-2`sgdhktah. "` oa ndodh `htdsdrd` sf g`

oahlar!`ia fh tarha ` uh iamnf am#ftd9a3 o`!md`r fn rkd!fh p`r` ra!pfr fn #f if n`]fsdstfhod` 0na ou`n rfspahif ` nas dhtfrfsfs if %sr`fn= y ifs!f!mr`r n` h`odh sdrd` p`r`

prasfkudr fn rfidsfOa ifn 1fida 4rdfhtf `!pnd`ia 0na ou`n rfspahif ` nas dhtfrfsfs ifn

/fht$kaha. n pramnf!` fs quf, `n o`ma if uh `Oa if oa!m`tfs, n` f9anuodh if n` sdtu`odh

fh fn tfrrfha if!ufstr` quf uh f9fhtu`n ifrrao`!dfhta if M`og`r `n-5ss`i ha i`r?` p`sa `

uh` sfuia if!aor`od` p`rn`!fht`rd` sdha ` uh` idot`iur` rfndkdas` suhhdt` f dhdod`r?` uh

!a9d!dfhta if oahldso`odh ifn paifr par p`rtf if nas fxtrf!dst`s suhhdt`s fh tai` n`

rfkdh. &d mdfh %sr`fn sf qudt`r?` if fhod!` n` prfsdh ifn #f if n` ]fsdstfhod`, fsf !ds!a

p`?s y st`ias hdias sf 9fr?`h ` n` n`rk` oahlraht`ias ` uh` !`s` or?tdo` suhhdt`.

n `utar rfoa!dfhi , par na t`hta, sfkudr `pay`hia !dndt`r!fhtf ` nas rfmfnifs ifn#rodta &drda "dmrf p`r` ifmdndtfh ` I`!`soa. /fra sfO`n` quf sf ifmf iasdldo`r fsf `paya

if lar!` t`n quf huho` nnfkufh ` sfr o`p`ofs if ifrrao`r fn kamdfrha if M`og`r `n-5ss`i

0fh rf`ndi`i ha sf rfldfrf ` M`og`r `n-5ss`i oa!a pfrsah` sdha ` n`s lufr6`s if n`s

pra9dfhf=. "as `h$ndsds l`ns`!fhtf nnfhas if s`pdfhod` if Tassfl Mai`hsey ha tdfhfh atra

am#ftd9a quf #ustdldo`r iftfr!dh`ia hd9fn if `paya y fsoahifr `n !ds!a tdf!pa sus

9fri`ifras !9dnfs fstr`tkdoas3 g`y quf `r!`r `n #rodta &drda "dmrf 0p`r` iftfhfr n`s

!`s`orfs=, pfra ha if!`sd`ia p`r` ha dr !$s `nn$ 0parquf n` sdtu`odh fs if!`sd`ia

oa!pnf#` f %r$h pair?` rfourrdr ` n` ma!m` `t!do`=.

@ Gfrftdos Vp I`tfi Cusdhks ah _yrd` , 5 'frftdos pI`tfi 1usdhks ah &yrd`, par Tassfl Mai`hsed,%hstdtut lr &tr`tfkdf- /andtde- &dogfrgfdts- uhi 2drtsog`ltsmfr`tuhk 0%&/&2=, `mrdn if )*(), (Fp. )LK Ga.

http://www.voltairenet.org/IMG/pdf/A_Heretic_s_Up_Dated_Musings_on_Syria.pdfhttp://www.voltairenet.org/IMG/pdf/A_Heretic_s_Up_Dated_Musings_on_Syria.pdfhttp://www.voltairenet.org/IMG/pdf/A_Heretic_s_Up_Dated_Musings_on_Syria.pdfhttp://www.voltairenet.org/IMG/pdf/A_Heretic_s_Up_Dated_Musings_on_Syria.pdfhttp://www.voltairenet.org/IMG/pdf/A_Heretic_s_Up_Dated_Musings_on_Syria.pdfhttp://www.voltairenet.org/IMG/pdf/A_Heretic_s_Up_Dated_Musings_on_Syria.pdfhttp://www.voltairenet.org/IMG/pdf/A_Heretic_s_Up_Dated_Musings_on_Syria.pdf

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,ufhtf 9 6N` %&'( rffsordmf fn oahlndota sdrda`rtdonf:38818.Btcn

@aras tr`t` if rfn`tdvd0`r fn ydB`idsca fh @drd`

n htfrh`tdah`n !rdsds "raup pumndo` uh fstuida samrf n` dhlnufhod` ydg`idst` fh n` apasdodh

`r!`i` sdrd`.

n t`hquf pfhs`htf if Dfarkf &aras rfoahaof quf

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+ahtr`s. n htfrh`tdah`n !rdsds "raup t`!paoa !fhodah` quf fh n`s !`hdlfst`odahfs oahtr`

M`og`r `n-5ss`i iahif n` @hdo` pfrsah` `on`!`i` fs fn #fquf 5ih`h `n-5raur, pfrsah`#f

quf sf g` gfoga onfmrf par sus id`trdm`s oahtr` nas

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Dhtfrh`tdah`n Ordsds Kraup Luhidhk:

]fvfhuf lar yf`r fhidhk ?2 Juhf =20=: $=2.? cdnndah

Kavfrhcfhts:

@ustr`nd` (@kfhoy lar Dhtfrh`tdah`n Ifvfnacfht!

@ustrd` (@ustrd`h Ifvfnacfht @kfhoy!

"fnkduc (#dhdstry al arfdkh @ll`drs!

%`h`i` (%`h`id`h Dhtfrh`tdah`n Ifvfnacfht @kfhoy& Dhtfrh`tdah`n

Ifvfnacfht ]fsf`ro' %fhtrf!

Ifhc`r (#dhdstry al arfdkh @ll`drs! )uraf`h *hdah (Dhstrucfht lar +t`,dndty!

dhn`hi (#dhdstry al arfdkh @ll`drs!

-frc`hy (fifr`n arfdkh lldof!

Drfn`hi (Drds' @di!

/dfo'tfhstfdh

/ufc,aurk (#dhdstry al arfdkh @ll`drs!

'f ft'frn`his (#dhdstry al arfdkh @ll`drs!

f 9f`n`hi (@kfhoy lar Dhtfrh`tdah`n Ifvfnacfht!

ar`y (#dhdstry al arfdkh @ll`drs!

+fifh (#dhdstry al arfdkh @ll`drs6 +fids' Dhtfrh`tdah`n Ifvfnacfht

%aafr`tdah @kfhoy!

+dt

7/22/2019 Polticas de intervencin estadounidense en Siria

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Lauhi`tdahs:

%`rhfkdf %arar`tdah al f 7ar& #artah @,r`cdt< ds ` cfc,fr al D%-

`hi 4rfsdifht al t'f %`rhfkdf )hiacfht lar Dhtfrh`tdah`n 4f`of&

uht @ntfrh`tdvfs uhi 5 +`hff uht ds ` cfc,fr al D%- (s'f>s t'f

i`uk'tfr al adn tyoaah ./. uht!&

fh +aodfty Dhstdtutf 3 -farkf +aras D%- cfc,fr (+aras `s ahf al t'f

ardkdh`n lauhifrs al D%-!. +aras lauhifi t'f fh +aodfty Dhstdtutf.

]aoeflfnnfr Mratgfrs Luhi3

_aras Luhi C`h`kfcfht NNO: _aras ds ` cfcmfr al DOK

4nauk's'`rfs:

#o;dhsfy 8 %ac`hy +'fnn

"raadhks Dhstdtutf

@ifssduc auhi`tdah

)nifrs auhi`tdah

1dnnd`c `hi nar` fnftt auhi`tdah

uc`hdty *hdtfi

fhry /uof auhi`tdah

Ja'h I. `hi %`t'frdhf . #`o@rt'ur auhi`tdah ` auhi`tdah

]`iondllf auhi`tdah

'f +t`hnfy auhi`tdah

'f %'`rdt`,nf auhi`tdah

dhfr auhi`tdah6 Dho.

-`r` c`ar oahaodcdfhta if fs` ldh`hod`odh, uh `hf.a ifn gttp/22000!mraa=dhks!fiu?

$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$

http://www.brookings.edu/http://www.brookings.edu/http://www.brookings.edu/

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Fn macm`rifa oahtr` @drd` oahiuodr/ ` uh`

apfr`odh tfrrfstrf

1dfhtr`s fn fst`ia !`yar fst`iauhdifhsf sf pn`htf` uh` `oodh if o`!mda if rkd!fh oah

usa if n` lufr6` oahtr` &drd`, oah fn prftfxta if o`stdk`r ` fsf p`?s par uh `t`quf qu?!doaquf n` `i!dhdstr`odh 4m`!` `trdmuyf `n kamdfrha if M`og`r `n-5ss`i, n` ]`hi +arpar`tdah

fstuid` n`s oahsfoufhod`s if n`s idlfrfhtfs apodahfs.

C Ifstrudr a dh!a9dnd6`r fh tdfrr` n` `9d odh sdrd` ha !aidldo`r? luhi`!fht`n!fhtf n`

sdtu`odh fh fn tfrrfha hd pfr!dtdr?` uh` 9dotard` if n` apasdodh.

C Ifstrudr n` iflfhs` `htd!dsdnfs if &drd` o`f ifhtra if na pasdmnf pfra sna tfhir?` sfhtdia sd

n`s lufr6`s `r!`i`s if st`ias hdias f!prfhidfr`h fhtahofs uh` kufrr` on$sdo` oah

ifspndfkuf if lufr6`s tfrrfstrfs.

C +rf`r 6ah`s pratfkdi`s ifhtra ifn tfrrdtarda sdrda p`r` quf sdr9`h if rflukda ` n` apasdodh

rfsunt` l`otdmnf. s` apodh sdkhdldo`r?` if gfoga ifs!f!mr`r fn p`?s.

C Ifrrao`r fn rkd!fh fxdkf amndk`tard`!fhtf odfrta hd9fn if rfsp`nia oah lufr6`s tfrrfstrfs y

rfsunt`r?` t`h pra9fogasa p`r` n` apasdodh if!aor$tdo` oa!a p`r` nas ydg`idst`s, oah uh

`nta rdfska if `mrdr p`sa ` uh !uy n`rka pfrdaia if dhfst`mdndi`i pan?tdo`.

C Ifstrudr n`s `r!`s qu?!do`s sdrd`s fxdkf ` n` 9f6 uh` apfr`odh `rf` y fn rfsp`nia if

lufr6`s tfrrfstrfs. xdstf `if!$s uh `nta rdfska if idspfrsdh if k`sfs if oa!m`tf g`od` n`

`t!slfr`, `if!$s if quf sfr$ d!pasdmnf ifstrudr tai`s n`s `r!`s qu?!do`s.

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/`r` ifodrna fh pao`s p`n`mr`s3 nas ma!m`rifas `rfas sah fn o`!dha l$odn p`r`

st`ias hdias, pfra ha m`st`h p`r` k`r`htd6`r fn xdta sdha !$s mdfh taia na oahtr`rda.

@drpafr -ptdahs lar _yrd`. @ssfssdhk -m(fotd%fs `hi Cdssdahs lar @frd`n htfr%fhtdah ,par G`rn /. 1ufnnfr,8fllrfy 1`rtdhd y :ga!`s '`!dntah, ]`hi +arpar`tdah, B* if `kasta if )*(B.

,ufhtf 9 6Fn macm`rifa oahtr` @drd` oahiuodr/ ` uh` apfr`odh tfrrfstrf `rtdonf:4;8:.Btcn

$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$

O]@9 n`s oahsfoufhod`s rfkdah`nfs if uh` kufrr`

oahtr` @drd` sah idl!odnfs if prfvfr

h !a!fhtas fh quf fn +ahkrfsa if st`ias hdias fst$ nn`!`ia ` prahuhod`rsf samrf

uh` pasdmnf kufrr` oahtr` &drd`, fn sfr9doda if dh9fstdk`odh ifn prapda +ahkrfsa pumndo` uh

fstuida samrf fs` apodh.

5if!$s if i`r rfspufst` ` 9`rd`s oufstdahfs if praofid!dfhta samrf tf!`s oa!a n`s

`r!`s qu?!do`s, nas paifrfs if kufrr`, fn oasta f9fhtu`n if uh` huf9` kufrr`, fto., fstf

fstuida f9 n@` n`s pasdmdndi`ifs if rfkdah`nd6`odh ifn oahlndota, oa!a n`s `oodahfs if

rfspufst` if %r$h y ifn 'f6mann`g oahtr` %sr`fn.

http://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/research_reports/RR400/RR446/RAND_RR446.pdfhttp://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/research_reports/RR400/RR446/RAND_RR446.pdfhttp://www.voltairenet.org/article180251.htmlhttp://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/research_reports/RR400/RR446/RAND_RR446.pdfhttp://www.voltairenet.org/article180251.html

7/22/2019 Polticas de intervencin estadounidense en Siria

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n iaou!fhta oahonuyf quf %sr`fn tdfhf n` o`p`odi`i hfofs`rd` p`r` dhtfrofpt`r uh` p`rtf

if nas !dsdnfs fhf!dkas y quf st`ias hdias pair?` 9frsf amndk`ia ` fxtfhifr su

o`!p`O` if ma!m`rifas `n "?m`ha f %r$h.

"` nfotur` if fstf fstuida !ufstr` n` fxdstfhod` if hu!fras`s dhokhdt`s samrf n`s

d!pndo`odahfs rfkdah`nfs quf pn`htf r?` fsf oahlndota y quf !uog`s if n`s 9`rd`htfspatfhod`nfs rfsunt`h fxtrf!`i`!fhtf pfndkras`s.

/assdmnf V._. htfr%fhtdah dh _yrd`+ ssufs lar !ahkrfss , par 8frf!y 1. &g`rp y +grdstapgfr 1. Mn`hog`ri,+ahkrfssdah`n ]fsf`rog &fr9dof, B if sfptdf!mrf if )*(B.

,ufhtf 9 6O]@9 n`s oahsfoufhod`s rfkdah`nfs if uh` kufrr` oahtr` @drd` sah idl!odnfs if

prfvfr`rtdonf:4;84.Btcn

$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$

@drd`9 fn O('@ prfldfrf fn st`tus qua

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n +fhtfr lar 5 7fA 5!frdo`h &fourdty 0+75&= pumndo` uh fstuida samrf n` pasdmnf

f9anuodh if n` sdtu`odh fh &drd` y n` !`hfr` if iflfhifr nas dhtfrfsfs fst`iauhdifhsfs f

dsr`fn?fs, sfk@h nas idlfrfhtfs fsofh`rdas prf9dsdmnfs. :fhdfhia fh oufht` n` oahsdifr`mnf

dhlnufhod` ifn +75& fh n` `i!dhdstr`odh 4m`!` fh kfhfr`n y, fh p`rtdoun`r, fhtrf nas

`otu`nfs idrdkfhtfs ifn /fht$kaha, fn !fhodah`ia fstuida !frfof fspfod`n `tfhodh."` `utar`, 1fndss` D. I`ntah, sf m`s` fh n` 9dsdh !fid$tdo` if nas `oahtfod!dfhtas 0uh`

rf9anuodh if n`

7/22/2019 Polticas de intervencin estadounidense en Siria

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1dfhtr`s nas idlfrfhtfs st`ias !dndt`r!fhtf d!pndo`ias fh n` kufrr` if &drd` sf rftdr`h uha `

uha if# hia ldh`n!fhtf sanas y lrfhtf ` lrfhtf ` st`ias hdias y ]usd , 9`rd s

pumndo`odahfs sf dhtfrrak`h samrf nas prayfotas if id9dsdh if n` `otu`n ]fp@mndo` Jr`mf

&drd`.

h 2` $pasdmnf id%dsd'h if _drd`, 1ust`l` Gg`ndl` fxpahf, ` ha!mrf if n @r`m ]flar$

hdtd`td%f, n`s id9dsdahfs thdoa-rfndkdas`s ifn p`?s y n` d!pasdmdndi`i if rflnf#`rn`s fh fn pn`ha

kfakr$ldoa a tfrrdtard n ifmdia ` n` !f6on` if pamn`odahfs quf prfia!dh` fh &drd .

&fO`n t`!mdh, par atr` p`rtf, quf nas prayfotas g`st` `gar` !fhodah`ias ha sahfoah!do`!fhtf 9d`mnfs p`r` tai`s n`s p`rtfs ` n` 9f6.

stf fstuida, on`r`!fhtf iaou!fht`ia, ` pfs`r if quf `trdmuyf nas pn`hfs if id9dsdh ifn

p ?s ta!`hia oa!a rflfrfhod` n` prap`k`hi` if n` 4:57, luf ldh`hod`ia par

fn Ifp`rt`!fhta if st`ia. s par na t`hta !uy pram`mnf quf st`ias hdias na utdndof p`r`

dh9`ndi`r fs` apodh fh Ddhfmr` ).

h Ifs$f$mr`hia _drd`, D`ry D`!mdnn fxpahf fn puhta if 9dst` dsr`fn? p`r` fn9arfdkh

/andoy ]fsf`rog hstdtutf. &fk@h D`!mdnn, fs odfrta quf n` rfp`rtdodh if n` pamn`odh

oahstdtuyf `otu`n!fhtf uh amst$ouna p`r` n` id9dsdh if &drd`, pfra fst` @ntd!` fst`mdnd6`r?` n`

p`6 parquf o`i` m`hia sf dr?` oah su prapd` 9dotard`. 5s? quf sna l`nt`r?` ifspn`6`r ` n`

kfhtf, na ou`n ha p`rfof prfaoup`r `n `utar.

)gf d$passdmnf p`rtdtdah al _yrd`, par 1ust`l` Gg`ndl`, 5r`m ]flar! %hdtd`td9f, aotumrf if )*(B, (B p./`rtdtdahdhk _yrd`, par D`ry D`!mdnn, Harfdkh /andoy ]fsf`rog %hstdtutf, aotumrf if )*(B, B p.

,ufhtf 9 6LFh o`cdha ` n` idvdsdh if @drd`K`rtdonf:413.Btcn

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