RECALCULANDO… · personal. • El gran ganador es el E-commerce y todos los negocios vinculados....

“Los cambios en el

comportamiento del shopper”

COVID-19RECALCULANDO…

Presentado por:

Diego Persali, Director MSU Italia

Rosario Mellado, Client officer

Alfredo Torres, CEO Ipsos Perú

1. EL COVID Hoy – Una mirada global

2. Como cambia el comportamiento del “Shopper” a

medida que transita los diferentes estadios

emocionales

• Cómo han sido estos cambios en Italia

3. El comprador peruano en la nueva normalidad

CONTENIDO

“El COVID Hoy”

En América Latina y

el mundo

© Ipsos | COVID-19 RECALCULANDO4

Existe un amplio consenso en que el COVID-19 es una gran amenaza mundial. En América Latina la percepción de amenaza es mayor, especialmente hacia el trabajo o la actividad económica de cada uno.

What level of

threat do you

think the

coronavirus or

COVID-19 poses

to each of the

following?

% Very high +

High threat:

APRIL 16 to 19

(trend on

following

slides)

WW APR 9-12 WW APR 16-19 US EU LATAM ASIA OTHERS

You personally 40% 39% 34% 38% 50% 45% 32%

Your job or business 52% 51% 47% 50% 65% 51% 52%

Your country 73% 71% 71% 74% 80% 69% 68%

The world 85% 84% 75% 83% 90% 86% 85%

You personally Your job or business Your country The world

Global COVID tracker 28 countries, 16 April - 19 April 2020

© Ipsos | COVID-19 RECALCULANDO

US EU LATAM ASIA OTHERS

Feb 7 - 9 14% 10% 16% 11%

Mar 12 - 14 22% 26% 40% 19%

Mar 19 - 21 29% 37% 46% 39% 27%

Mar 26 - 28 36% 41% 45% 43% 37%

April 2-4 38% 40% 46% 41% 39%

April 9-12 36% 39% 49% 45% 35%

April 16-19 34% 38% 50% 45% 32%

Feb 7 - 9 Mar 12 - 14 Mar 19 - 21 Mar 26 - 28 April 2-4 April 9-12 April 16-19

5

What level of

threat do you

think the

coronavirus

poses to you

personally?

% Very high + High threat for you personally

La sensación de riesgo personal ha empezado a disminuir en Europa y USA, pero en América Latina se sigue incrementando, en paralelo con el incremento de personas afectadas.




Source: Jan 2002- Feb 2011 RBC CASH Index; March 2011 to early

March Monthly Refinitiv-Ipsos Primary Consumer Sentiment Index; March

25 2020 to date Ipsos Weekly Consumer Confidence Tracker

CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX

55.1

42.443.3

47.7

41.1

Abr-19 May-19 Jun-19 Jul-19 Ago-19 Set-19 Oct-19 Nov-19 Dic-19 Ene-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Abr-20

US Europe Latam Asia Others

La magnitud de la crisis ha impactado severamente en la confianza del

consumidor. La confianza no se recuperará hasta que no se reactive la

actividad económica por completo.

CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX



What Worries the World (Latam)

54%52%

65%

50%

69%

37%39%

46%

39%

30%

16%

46%

27%

19% 19%

28% 28%

18%

56%

45%

24%27%

31%

23%

39%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

Argentina Brazil Chile Mexico PeruCoronavirus Unemployment and jobs Health Care Crime and violence Financial/Political Corruption

Source: Jan 2002- Feb 2011 RBC CASH Index; March 2011 to early March Monthly

Refinitiv-Ipsos Primary Consumer Sentiment Index; March 25 2020 to date Ipsos

Weekly Consumer Confidence Tracker

Which three of

the following

topics do you find

the most worrying

in your country?

El COVID es hoy la mayor preocupación, aunque con variaciones por países.

En México y Perú preocupa también la delincuencia, en Chile el desempleo, en

Argentina la inflación, en Brasil el sistema de salud y en el Perú la corrupción.


29%18%

38%29% 30%

38%

41%

38%47% 40%

18%23%

14% 16%18%

11% 13%8% 5% 9%


Strongly agree Somewhat agree Somewhat disagree Strongly disagree

8

Aunque se levanten las cuarentenas, la preocupación por la infección va a continuar. La gente preferirá salir poco de su casa, salvo para trabajar y hacer las compras básicas.

To what extent do

you agree or

disagree with each

of the following ?

Even if businesses are allowed to reopen and travel resumes, I am going

to be very nervous about leaving my home

APRIL 16-19 (NO TREND)



14% 9% 10% 15%8%

44%42% 42%

50%

44%

42%50% 48%

36%48%


Comfortable Not comfortable Definitely would not

9

Las relaciones personales cambiarán profundamente: solo uno de cada diez saludará con un apretón de manos a un extraño.

How comfortable

would you be

doing each of the

following in the

next few weeks?


Shaking hands with someone I don’t know



43% 41%

17% 20%

52%

41% 42%

45%52%

35%

17% 18%

38%28%

14%


Comfortable Not comfortable Definitely would not

10

El uso de las máscaras fuera de casa será generalizado, especialmente en América Latina.

How comfortable

would you be doing

each of the following

in the next few

weeks?


Leaving my home without a face mask





Mar 12-14 14% 15% 25% 12%

Mar 19-21 27% 17% 21% 29% 18%

Mar 26-28 26% 20% 21% 20% 17%

April 2-4 35% 24% 25% 21% 22%

April 9-12 34% 25% 30% 22% 24%

April 16-19 33% 33% 34% 20% 27%

Mar 12-14 Mar 19-21 Mar 26-28 April 2-4 April 9-12 April 16-19

11

El “e-commerce” es el gran ganador de la crisis y la tendencia a usarlo aumenta cada semana que continúa la necesidad de la distancia social.

Using e-commerce to purchase products you would normally buy in-store

Would you say are doing

each of the following more

frequently or less

frequently compared to

one month ago?

SCORE: MORE – LESS / (THOSE WHO DO THIS ACTIVITY)



12 ‒

75%

60%

51%

51%

47%

46%

39%

36%

1%

More health-conscious

More emphasis on a peaceful life

More family-oriented

More respect for wildlife

More transparency

More emphasis on social supervision

More respect for professionalism

More expectations of social equality

For others, please specify

Say COVID-19 has

affected their social

values

N=1512

Impact of the epidemic on Chinese social values

N=1498

64%

A pesar de todo, la pandemia traerá cambios positivos en los valores

sociales, como la mayor consciencia por la salud, la paz, la unión familiar y

el respeto a la naturaleza. El riesgo: más autoritarismo y populismo.

China Quantitative tracker

CHINA


En conclusión:

• La preocupación por la pandemia es mayor en América

Latina, sobre todo por su impacto en los ingresos

personales, dada las características del empleo en la

región.

• El impacto sobre la confianza del consumidor y, por lo tanto,

sobre la demanda de productos no esenciales, ya es y será

muy significativo.

• Las relaciones personales cambiarán profundamente. La

población seguirá usando mascarillas y evitando el contacto

personal.

• El gran ganador es el E-commerce y todos los negocios

vinculados. Los negocios que dependan de grandes

concentraciones de personas serán los más perjudicadas.

• Las marcas deben entender y adaptarse a los cambios y

nuevos valores y acercarse al consumidor con la empatía

necesaria para reconquistarlo.


“How the shopper

changes through the

crisis”

The Italian Experience



Let´s remember the emotional stages that people go through during confinement

15 ‒

Started in China, Travel the world and is a moving target

Pre-

Lockdown

Lockdown

Post

Lockdown

Disbelief I feel confusion and fear, as there is inaccurate information and lots of rumours

PreparationI start to change my plans, to stock up on provisions, getting to grips with particular

products being sold out or in short supply

AdjustmentAdjusting day by day to the new restrictions and measures as they are announced.

Working out new routines

Acclimatization

Settling into new routines and facing the daily challenges of boredom and forced contact

with family. Discovering positive aspects of the situation, such as exploring new activities

and interests

EnduringTension builds with time, with the restriction of movement and reduced social contact affecting

mood and relationships. All aggravated by the uncertainty of how long this will last

ReliefFeelings of relief when businesses start to reopen, signaling that the end is in sight.

Looking forward to getting back to life as it was

FearFeelings of relief when businesses start to reopen, signaling that the end is in sight.

But new concerns arise about work, finances and the economic consequences



16 ‒

In Italy we see signs that things are improving and that some restrictions will soon be loosened

43%

35%

32%

23%

16%

12%

11%

9%

6%

5%

1%

China

Germany

Italy

Spain

US

Brazil

India

Russia

United Kingdom

Mexico

Japan

Disbelief/

uncertaintyPreparation Adjustment

Acclimatization

& enduring Relief/

AnticipationTime unclear

Source: Ipsos Global Advisor online survey 9-12 April 2020 (n=2000 adults per country)



17 ‒

How everything started in Italy …

...but after a few days it became clear the

magnitude of the pandemic.

On Febraury 24th

schools and university

have been closed in

the North of Italy and

then in the rest of the

country.

Italy is the first country

in Europe applying limitations

since February 23rd

The first measures at the begininning of the crisis

generated local RED ZONES in the North

Milan, the economic Italian capital tried to go

on showing its dynamism...



• Changing values and rituals

• Supply and availability

• Operational challenges

• Altered context of price

• eCommerce tipping point! (the way consumers know it)

In this journey every aspect of shopping has changed in Italy

and across the world

NEW PRIORITIES &NEW BEHAVIORS

© Ipsos | COVID-19 RECALCULANDO19 ‒ © Ipsos | COVID-19 RECALCULANDO

What has

meant for the

shopper in Italy


I will control what I can

Hoarding

all

favorites

It is not here… yet to

Stocking

up on

the basics

+60% Modern trade vs same day previous year


Sh

op

pin

g

21 ‒ © Ipsos | COVID-19 RECALCULANDO

The future will not be the past:

eComm &

safe delivery

experimentation

Delivery from

supermarkets

accommodating:

Cancelled orders / long

delivery times

Anxious?

Happy?

New world’s order

Develop new routines

Home office

Cancel traveling

Free| Livestreaming events

or Online museums

Unimaginable challenges disrupting omnichannel shopping

Reduction of

stocking up

Proxy starts

to grow

Non-functional

purchases

stopped

Shopping Centers

and no first need

retail closed

Still empty shelfs

for some items:

Alcohol,

disinfecting items

Fe

eli

ng

s /

beh

avio

rs

that

imp

act

the s

ho

pp

er



The future will not be the past: Unimaginable challenges disrupting omnichannel shopping

It causes the growth of proximity stores

And also discount

With the real lockdown in March it was (and still it is)

forbidden going out from our own village/city so choices are limited (especially in the rural areas).

In terms of channels in Italy we observed a huge increase of the demand for grocery e-commerce but retailers were not able to manage it due to long delivery times:

+82%

+46%

+22%

In in this stage Italians are united against the emergency, trusted sanitary authority guidance but people think there are too many violations


In terms of categories the biggest increase reflects the biggest needs:

- Flour to cook pasta, pizza and cakes homemade in order to pass time

- Gloves to protect ourselves especially when going to the supermarket

- Frozen pizza as substitute of “real” pizza, due to restaurants closures trying to not forget the special and convivial moment of the past

- Comfort food as Nutella

- Chamomile to manage anxiety and insomnia


COVID-19RECALCULANDO…In this stage people become more familiar with home isolation

and start new routine mainly thanks to digital:

+ 140X

Increase in download

Week OF 15 march VS. Pre-crisis

+ 423X

+ 55X

+ 30X

1.8x more likely to

use video to

communicate with

family/friends

2.5x more likely to use

fitness/wellbeing

apps/online videos

At the same time

make up products

registered -70%


Sh

op

pin

g


I can’t stand it anymore!

Impatient?

Bored?

Impose spending restriction

Checking viral statistics

Increased

price sensitivity

Managing down

from hoarding

Shopping habits

more stablish

Shopping list

accommodates to the

financial situation

Start to see

more empty

shelves

Lack of some

all time favorites

Fe

eli

ng

s /

beh

avio

rs

that

imp

act

the s

ho

pp

er

© Ipsos | COVID-19 RECALCULANDO© Ipsos | COVID-19 RECALCULANDO

In this context, with the incremental

economic measures taken by the

government during the lockdown and

uncertainty about the future we can see that

price is the first driver of choice for

consumers.

At the same time there is attention towards

“Made in Italy” to reassure about quality but

moreover to stay together and sustain the

economy 21%Environmental impact

58%

46%

38%

36%

Price

Quality

Made in Italy

Raw materials

5° April - data Ipsos CoronaVirus Survey - Italy



As soon as Italians will be able

to get out of their homes, they will be

willing to lose themselves

in restaurants, and ‘AperitifVeri’ (instead of

Virtual Apritif) with friends

5° April - data Ipsos CoronaVirus Survey - Italy

eat or drink outside

see loved ones

take a walk in the city centre.

take a walk in nature

go to the seaside, lake or river

go to the hairdresser/barber shop, beutician

go shopping

take a road/motorcycle trip

go back to work/school

see friends

39

36

26

26

25

15

13

13

13

33



We finally see the light at the end of the tunnel. Feelings of relief when businesses start to reopen, but new concerns arise about work, finances and the economic consequences.

It has been finally announced the calendar of the

gradual re-opening:

• Private manufacturer companies and public

building sector (May 4th)

• Shops, museums and private building sector

(May 18th)

• Bars, restaurants, hairdressers and beauty

centers (June 1st)

47%of Italian families declare

that they are

experiencing a decline in

their income (second highest percentage after

58% in Spain)

-8%For 2020, gross domestic

product (GDP)

is expected to contract by 8

percent, the largest drop in

recent Italian history

© Ipsos | COVID-19 RECALCULANDO© Ipsos | COVID-19 RECALCULANDO

What does it

mean for Italy


Not all digital services will see continuing demand once consumers are out of crisis.

‘Getting back to normal’ may be appealing for some targets (ie. older consumers), while others may be more open

to the changes as many of these accelerated offers have occurred in the digital space.

Grocery e-commerce will probably remain strong even post crisis

And if in the presence of a reduced purchasing power it is easy

to imagine a progressive and further growth of the discount.

38% of Italians have changed supermarkets due to containment measures,

with 13% claiming to have done so definitively.

Brands can have a supporting role in giving people a sense of control

Helping people constructively build new habits and routines : products that become

a part of consumer routines at this time can gain a strong user base that will

outlast the current situation. Brands stand to gain long-term perceived

value if they perform well in a memorably anxious time

Will the behaviours seen in crisis persist post crisis?


EL COMPRADOR PERUANO EN LA NUEVANORMALIDAD

Rosario Mellado, Client OfficerIpsos PerúMayo, 2020



Importancia de la compra frecuente y del canal tradicional

EL PUNTO DE PARTIDA: ¿CÓMO COMPRA EL PERUANO?

29%Compra alimentos

diariamente

Fuentes: Ipsos, El Nuevo Hábitat del Shopper Peruano, 2018. Ipsos, Perfil del Ama de Casa 2017.



Fuentes: Ipsos, Shopper Canal Tradicional. Ipsos Global Trends 2018

33 ‒

PARA EL SHOPPER PERUANO, LA COMPRA ES ADEMÁS UNA EXPERIENCIA SOCIAL

78%

54%

56% Disfruta comprar, socializa

mientras compra

Toma en cuenta recomendaciones

del bodeguero / casero

Conoce a su bodeguero / casero

53% USA / 50% Latam

En el último año ha recomendado

alguna marca o producto62%

70% USA / 65% Latam

La confianza en la marca es lo más

importante al momento de comprar77%



Existe una urgente necesidad de abastecerse, pero con menores ingresos familiares y puntos

de venta limitados. ¿Qué hacen los compradores peruanos en este nuevo contexto?

PERO LA CRISIS DEL COVID-19 GENERÓ CAMBIOS REPENTINOS EN ESTA RUTINA

Prueban nuevas

marcas, productos

y servicios

Consideran nuevos

atributos

Compran en

nuevos

canales

Recomiendan

nuevas opciones

Desarrollan nuevos

comportamientos



35 ‒

EL COMPRADOR SE ENFRENTÓ A CAMBIOS DISRUPTIVOS

Compras de pánico y

desabastecimiento iniciales

• Restricción de días y horas para circular

• Prohibición de circulación de vehículos

• Largas colas en puntos de venta

Principio de escasez

Efecto psicológico que hace que

deseemos intensamente aquel

producto que parece que se vaya a

agotar en breve



• Nuevo perfil de comprador: de compra de conveniencia a abastecimiento

• Colas en las veredas con distanciamiento social / Atención tras las rejas

• Exposición limitada a exhibición de productos: se afecta compra de impulso

• Delivery en el barrio: teléfono y Whatsapp

• Incorporación de pagos contactless

36 ‒

LOS COMPRADORES DE BODEGAS SE ADAPTARON AL NUEVO CONTEXTO



• Gran afluencia de público, en su mayoría compradores de frecuencia diaria

• Focos de contagio comprobados (hasta 40% de contagiados)

• Menos posibilidad de barreras / distancia entre vendedor y comprador

37 ‒

EN LOS MERCADOS FUE MAS DIFÍCIL ADAPTARSE A LAS RESTRICCIONES



38 ‒

EN EL CANAL MODERNO, ES MÁS FÁCIL CONTROLAR EL ORDEN,SEGURIDAD Y LIMPIEZA

• Colas más organizadas / Aforo controlado

• Protocolos de limpieza

• Acceso limitado sólo a clientes de zonas aledañas

• Dificultad para atender mayor demanda repentina del canal online



¿Y QUÉ PODEMOS ESPERAR EN EL CORTO PLAZO?



EL GRAN RETO DEL CANAL ONLINE: EL PUNTO DE PARTIDA

65%

36%

24%

10%

6%

19%Compradores online en Perú

urbano

37% USA / 36% Global

Piensan que comprar on-line es más difícil

que hacer la compra en una tienda (física)49%

A

B

C

D

E

25% Lima

88%Compra desde su smartphone

44%Combina compra virtual con tienda física

Principales barreras

Desconfianza, desconocimiento, bancarización

Fuentes: Ipsos, Comprador en Línea 2019, Ipsos Global Trends 2018



41 ‒

EL CANAL ONLINE TENDRÁ UN CRECIMIENTO IMPORTANTE

41

‒

46%

26%

17%

19%

Piensa aumentar sus compras online de alimentosy productos básicos después

de la cuarentena

21%

22%

17%

13%

15%

Piensa aumentará sus compras online de

productos no esencialesdespués de la cuarentena

15%

A

B

C

D

A

B

C

D

Fuente: Ipsos, El Peruano Post Cuarentena, 2020



Incremento de oferta y demanda; nuevos compradores y

nuevos negocios.

Facilidad de uso de las apps, confianza

Comunicación, resolución de problemas, asesoría

Rapidez y eficiencia en entrega de productos

Iniciativas de las marcas a través de marketplaces propios o

compartidos y de minoristas a través de plataformas

colaborativas

42 ‒

OPORTUNIDADES EN EL CANAL ONLINE



Fuente: Ipsos, El Peruano Post Cuarentena, 2020

43 ‒

LOS CENTROS COMERCIALES DEBEN GANAR LA CONFIANZA DE LOS COMPRADORES

43

‒

39%

44%

34%

35%

Piensa acudir menosa centros comerciales

después de la cuarentena

37%28%

40%

40%

A

B

C

D

18-24

25-40

41 a +

Mayor desconfianza en NSE AB y mayores 25

¿Qué piden para volver?



¡Generar confianza es el principal reto!

Mantener distancia social sin afectar la experiencia del

cliente

Mejorar la omicanalidad: complemento de tienda física y

virtual

La seguridad y conveniencia serán los atributos más

valorados

Dark kitchens / dark stores

La comunicación es más importante que nunca

44 ‒

OPORTUNIDADES PARA EL COMPRADOR DE CENTROS COMERCIALES Y CANAL MODERNO



EN RESUMEN, LAS NUEVAS NECESIDADES REQUIEREN NUEVAS PROPUESTAS!

VALIDAR ADAPTAR INNOVAR

Comprobar que el punto de

venta satisface las nuevas

necesidades de los

compradores

Adaptar el canal y su

mix de productos a lo

que ahora el

consumidor considera

prioritario.

Innovaciones para

satisfacer de una forma

diferente a los

compradores.



Fuente: Mercado Negro

46 ‒

INNOVAR PARA ADAPTARSE A LAS NUEVAS NECESIDADES: CANAL TRADICIONAL

Ingenio del minorista

Fuente: Twitter

Innovación de las marcas



PRINCIPALES OPORTUNIDADES PARA LAS MARCAS Y RETAILERS

Migración a marcas y productos económicos:

Impacto en los ingresos. Priorización de productos de primera necesidad. Oportunidad para

nuevos formatos, empaques más pequeños, marcas económicas, marcas propias, envases

retornables o reutilizables. Retracción en bienes durables.

Innovación en el modelo de atención en el punto de venta:

Priorizar seguridad, higiene y salud, pero cuidando la experiencia de compra. Distancia

social, pagos sin contacto. Innovar en exhibición de productos.

Generar confianza en el comprador:

Información, comunicación constante, contenidos útiles, cercanía



EN EL NUEVO JOURNEY DEL COMPRADOR, LA ELECCIÓN DEL CANAL SERÁ DECISIVA

The complete path to purchase

Preguntas

¡GRACIAS!

RECALCULANDO… · personal. • El gran ganador es el E-commerce y todos los negocios vinculados....

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Transcript of RECALCULANDO… · personal. • El gran ganador es el E-commerce y todos los negocios vinculados....