Red Jun 2014
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Transcript of Red Jun 2014
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Recent Economic Developments
June 2014
The Republic of Indonesia
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1
Published by Investor Relations UnitRepublic of Indonesia
Contact: Bimo Epyanto (International Department - Bank Indonesia, Phone: +6221 2981 8316)
Abdurohman (Fiscal Policy OfficeMinistry of Finance, Phone: +6221 384 6379)
Subhan Noor (Debt Management Office - Ministry of Finance, Phone: +6221 381 0175)
E-mail: [email protected]
ABOUT THE REPUBLIC OF INDONESIA INVESTOR RELATIONS UNIT
The Republic of Indonesia Investor Relations Unit (IRU) has been established as the join effort between the Coordinating Ministry of Economic Affairs,
Ministry of Finance and Bank Indonesia in 2005. The main objective of IRU is to actively communicating Indonesian economic policy and address
concerns of investors, especially financial market investors. IRU is expected to serve as a single point of contact for the financial market participants.
As an important part of it communication measures IRU maintains a website under Bank Indonesia website which is being administrated by the
International Department of Bank Indonesia. However, investor relations activities involve a coordinated efforts which are supported by all relevant
government agencies, namely Bank Indonesia, the Ministry of Finance, the Coordinating Ministry for Economic Affairs, Investment Coordinating Board,
Ministry of Trade, Ministry of Industry, State Ministry of State Owned Enterprises, State Asset Management Company and the Central Bureau of
Statistics.
IRU also hold an investor conference call on a quarterly basis, answers questions through email, telephone and may arrange direct visit of
banks/financial institutions to Bank Indonesia and other relevant government offices.
About Investor Relations Unit (IRU)
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Executive Summary
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Executive Summary
As a result of stabilization policies by the Government and the Central Bank, economic adjustment continueswith growth moderating to 5.21% (yoy) in the 1st quarter of 2014 .
Apart from the slowdown in export performance of non oil and gas, domestic demand are also moderatedwith limited investment growth although household consumptions still growing relatively strong.
In line with the external sector performance, the balance of trade continued to run a deficit in accordance withseasonal trends. Meanwhile, the financial account showed improvement.
In line with the positive perception from investors, investment realization (Domestic Direct Investment (DDI)
and Foreign Direct Investment (FDI)) in Q1-2014 of Rp 106.6 trillion reached the highest record. Inflation remains under control in May 2014, thus supporting the successful achievement of the inflation target
in 2014 of 4.51%.
The ongoing economic rebalancing process are not compromising financial system stability. Banking systemremained resilient with sufficient capital and well-mitigated risks. Financial market performed well asevidenced by gains in the JCI and lower yield on tradable government securities (SBN).
On June 12, 2014, BI decided to hold the BI Rate at 7.50%, as well as the interest rates on the lending facilityand the deposit facility at 7.50% and 5.75%, respectively.
Bank Indonesia will continue to strengthen the monetary and macroprudential policy mix as well as implementstructural policies to boost domestic economy while also managing the external debt, in particular corporateexternal debt. BI will also increase coordination efforts with the Government in terms of inflation control andthe current account deficit.
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Executive Summary
5
GDP Growth Inflation
Foreign Exchange ReservesTrade Balance
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39.0%35.1% 33.0%
28.3%26.2% 24.4% 24.0% 26.1%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013*
6
Source: Ministry of Finance
Debt Composition
Table of Debt to GDP Ratio
Central Government Debt to GDP Ratio (% of GDP)
*: Preliminary Realization
Executive Summary
53,2% 53,1% 47,9% 52,6% 53,7% 54,9% 55,5% 56,3%
46,8% 46,9% 52,1% 47,4% 46,3% 45,1% 44,5% 43,7%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 31-May-14
Domestic Debt Foreign Debt
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013*
GDP 3.339.217,0 3.957.400,0 4.954.028,9 5.613.441,7 6.422.918,2 7.427.086,1 8.241.864,3 9.084.000,0
Debt Outstanding (billion IDR) 1.302.159,0 1.389.415,0 1.636.740,7 1.590.656,1 1.681.656,5 1.808.946,8 1.977.706,4 2.371.393,7
- Domestic Debt (Loan+Securities) 693.118,0 737.125,5 783.855,1 836.308,9 902.823,4 993.038,2 1.097.993,2 1.263.853,5- Foreign Debt (Loan+Securities) 609.041,0 652.289,5 852.885,6 754.347,2 778.833,1 815.908,6 879.713,2 1.107.540,2
Debt to GDP Ratio 39,0% 35,1% 33,0% 28,3% 26,2% 24,4% 24,0% 26,1%
- Domestic Debt to GDP Ratio 20,8% 18,6% 15,8% 14,9% 14,1% 13,4% 13,3% 13,9%
- Foreign Debt to GDP Ratio 18,2% 16,5% 17,2% 13,4% 12,1% 11,0% 10,7% 12,2%
End of Year
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2014 Policy Summary
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Government coordinates policy tools to stabilize growth with macroeconomic management
Daily monitoring of market and yield movements
Improving coordination amongst policy makers to stabilize the
broader financial system
Prioritize funding from domestic market and financial institutions
Focus on financial inclusiveness of government securities access
to wider retail investors Active government bonds portfolio management
Deepening cross currency swap arrangements with regional
Central Banks to implement foreign exchange market intervention
Revenue and tax policy
Financing and debt management policyExpenditure policy
Monetary policy
Preemptive and Bold increase of BI Policy Rate by 175 bps to7,50% since June 2013
Exchange rate flexibility to facilitate external adjustments
Financial market deepening and capital flows management
Macroprudential and supervisory actions, eg LTV to property andautomotive sectors
Policy coordination with the government and financial stabilityforum
Central bank cooperations, including second line of defences.
Enlarging taxbase by focusing on mining, plantation, property andtrade sector
Improving tax administration system to increase tax compliance.
Improving tax regulation in order to give certainty, fairness andreasonable treatment.
Extensification of high-income and middle individual taxpayers;
Optimization of data from the national tax census;
Strengthening law enforcement for tax evasion.
Stimulating the economy through an increase in capital expenditure
for infrastructure to improve competitiveness & production capacity.
Improve government spending quality through efficiency measures
as well as the strengthening of expenditure allocation of productive
expenditure.
Support the implementation of effective and efficient government,
the 2014 election and the National Social Security System.
Support the implementation of development programs to achieve
the goals of economic growth, poverty reduction and the reduction
of unemployment and increase the capacity of mitigation and
adaptation to climate change and disaster.
Financial management strengthening within the framework of fiscal
decentralization to strengthen the financial capacity and reduce
fiscal disparities among regions/ local governments.
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Improved International Perception
and Rising Investment
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Improving International Perception:
Acknowledged by Rating Agencies
9
Resilient economy, which impressively navigates through the global crisis and continued confidence in economic outlook, the Republic continued to
receive good reviews.
S&P (April 28, 2014): affirmed Indonesiassovereign credit rating, at BB+ level for long-term and B level for short-term and revised its outlook to
stable from positive. S&P stated that stable outlook on Indonesia is reflecting the moderately weak institution, low GDP per capita, and external vulnerability
balanced against favorable fiscal and debt metrics and the country's moderately strong growth prospects.
Fitch Ratings (November 15, 2013): affirmed Indonesia's sovereign credit rating at BBB- level with stable outlook. The key factors supporting the
decision of affirming Indonesiassovereign credit rating are strong and sustainable economic growth, adequate policies for managing the Indonesian economy
amid the global economic downturn, prudent fiscal management with public sector debt at safe levels and a banking sector underpinned by strong capital
resources.
Rating and Investment Information, Inc (October 11, 2013): affirmedSovereign Credit Rating of the Republic of Indonesia at BBB-/stable outlook. R&I
stated that the key factors behind their decision are as follows: (1) Indonesias capacity to achieve sustainable economic growth in the long term; (2)conservative fiscal management; (3) a sound banking sector; and (4) a low level of government debt.
Japan Credit Rating Agency, Ltd (July 22, 2013): affirmed Indonesiasforeign currency long-term senior debt at BBB- and local currency long term
senior debt BBB with stable outlook.JCR stated that key factors supporting the decision of affirming the sovereign credit rating of Indonesia (1) the countrys
sustainable economic growth outlook underpinned by solid domestic demand, (2) low level of public debt burden brought by prudent fiscal management, (3)
resilience to external shocks.
Moodys Investors Service (January 18, 2012): upgraded Republic of Indonesias foreign and local-currency bond ratings to Baa3 with stable
outlook. Moody's stated the key factors supporting this action were (1) Moodysanticipation that government financial metrics will remain in line with Baa peers
(2) The demonstrated resilience of Indonesiaseconomic growth to large external shocks (3) The presence of policy buffers and tools that address financial
vulnerabilities and (4) A healthier banking system capable of withstanding stress.
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Mar-
99
Dec-9
9
Sep-0
0
Jun-0
1
Mar-
02
Dec-0
2
Aug-0
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4
Fe
b-0
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Aug-0
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Jan-0
8
Oc
t-08
Ju
l-09
Apr-
10
Jan-1
1
Oc
t-11
Ju
l-12
Mar-
13
Dec-1
3
Fitch
Mar-
99
Dec-9
9
Sep-0
0
Jun-0
1
Mar-
02
Dec-0
2
Aug-0
3
May-0
4
Fe
b-0
5
Nov-0
5
Aug-0
6
May-0
7
Jan-0
8
Oc
t-08
Ju
l-09
Apr-
10
Jan-1
1
Oc
t-11
Ju
l-12
Mar-
13
Dec-1
3
S&P
Mar-
99
Dec-9
9
Sep-0
0
Jun-0
1
Mar-
02
Dec-0
2
Aug-0
3
May-0
4
Fe
b-0
5
Nov-0
5
Aug-0
6
May-0
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Jan-0
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Dec-1
3
Moody's
o
s
Dec 2011 (affirmed Dec 2013)
This reflects policy adaptability to market pressures that have prevailed
since May, as well as relatively strong public finances. [] Indonesia's
sovereign credit profits from stronger and less volatile growth than its
BBB peers. Real GDP growth remains substantially higher than the
BBB median (3.3% for 2013), even with lower growth of 5.0%-5.5% in thecontext of stabilisation of external finances.
Jan 2012 (affirmed Dec 2013)
Indonesia's rating is based on the country's resilient growth, low debt
burden, favorable maturity profile, and high debt affordability. Indonesia
has a demonstrated resilience to large external shocks [with] sustainablyhigh trend growth over the medium term. Prudent fiscal management has
contained budget deficits and steadily reduced the government's debt
burden over the past decade.
28 April 2014The sovereign credit ratings reflect the economy's low per capita income,a relatively weak policy environment, and rising external leverage from a
moderate level. These rating constraints are weighed against the
country's well-entrenched cautious fiscal management and resultant
modest general government debt and interest burden, which make for a
favorable debt profile.
BBB- / Stable
Baa3 / Stable
BB+ / Stable
Source: Moodys, S&P, Fitch
Sovereign Rating History
1
S
P
F
t
c
h
Investment grade
Baa3
B3
B2B1
Ba3
Ba2
Ba1
CCC+
CCC
Positive Outlook
Negative Outlook
Stable Outlook
Positive Watch
B-
B
B+BB-
BB
BB+
BBB-
CCC+
CCC
B-
B
B+
BB-
BB
BB+
BBB-
Caa1
Caa2
Investment grade
Investment grade
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Positive Perceptions from International Institutions
11
JBIC 2013 Survey Report on Overseas Business Operations of Japanese Manufacturing Companies, November 2013
Put Indonesia at the 1st rank for the most promising investment destination for the next three years. In 2013, Japan already dominates foreign direct
investment in Indonesia. Japanese companies investing enthusiasm in Indonesia is mainly due to Indonesia's rapidly expanding middle class combined with large population (over
240 million people), thus forming a huge consumption class. High consumption rate is believed to be a catalyst to spur further economic development inSoutheast Asia's largest economy.
World Economic Forum: Global Competitiveness Report 2013-2014
Indonesia is considered as one of the most dynamic and rapidly improving economies in terms of competitiveness
Since 2006-2007 edition of GCI, Indonesia has been progressed 19 places, positioned at 38th on 2013-2014 edition - the biggest progression among G20.Infrastructure pillar is the most improved since infrastructure improvement spending have started to bear fruit.
The positive development will contribute to sustaining Indonesiasimpressive growth momentum - GDP grew by 5.2 percent annually over the past decade.
World Bank Indonesia Economic Quarterly, March 2014
Indonesia is blessed with abundant labor. Between 2013 and 2020, the population of working age will increase by 14.8 million, reaching 189 million from thecurrent 174 million. Today, 50 percent of the population is under the age of 30. This increasingly educated and IT-savvy youth is an asset that can be used toboost overall productivity and economic growth.
Urbanization is increasing at an annual pace of about 4 percent, making Indonesia one of the most rapidly urbanizing countries in the world.
Chinasrapidly rising wages present Indonesia with a potent ial second chance in regaining a comparative advantage in labor-intensive export sectors.
McKinsey Report (The Archipelago Economy: Unleashing IndonesiasPotential), September 2012
Indonesia will be the 7th largest economy in the world in 2030, and additional 90 million Indonesians could join the global consuming class (individuals withnet income of more than US$ 3,600 per annum in PPP).
Over the past decade, compared with any advanced countries in OECD and BRIC plus South Africa, Indonesia has had the lowest volatility in economicgrowth, fallen debt to GDP ratio (5th lowest), and third strongest economic growth after China and India.
To achieve growth target, Indonesia needs to push labor productivity, address social gap issue and manage increasing demand.
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12
Preserved Macroeconomic Stability
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Domestic Economic Adjustment Continues
13
Economic growth in Q1-2014 is lowerthan previous quarter, mainly due to the
less favorable performance of the externalsector where exports experienced asignificant contraction.
Economic slowdown occurred inalmost all sectors, with mining sectorexperienced a contraction. Negativegrowth in mining sector was caused bydeclining production.
Household consumption in Q1 2014
was able to grow by 5.6% (yoy), drivenby sustained consumer purchasing powerin line with growing consumerconfidence.
Investment increased to 5,1% (yoy) inQ1-2014. Increase in non-buildinginvestment is reflected in higher importsof capital goods such as machinery andequipment.
Softening growth in Q1-2014 isconsidered cyclical and expected torecover in Q3 and Q4 following effectiveand coordinated policy response by BIand the Govt.
Household Consumption Supporting Growth Increased Investment in Q1-2014
Consumer Confidence Index
Non Building Investment
Capital Goods Import(Value)
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Conducive Environment Underpinning Growth Fundamentals
1
Source: KPMG, Ernst and Young, Jefferies Economist Intelligence Unit, Ministry of Finance, BPS and CIA World Factbook
(1) Working age defined as being between 15-54 years old
(2) Consuming class is individuals with annual net income of more than $3,500 in PPP at 2005 exchange rate
21,980
39,340
60,740
2007 2012 2017E
The largesteconomy in South-
East Asia
A large, culturallydiverse, young andvibrant workforce
Large consumerbase with fastgrowing spending
power
According to McKinsey, Indonesia is projected to be the7thlargest economy in the world by 2030
5.9% average real GDP growth over the period 2008-2013
Exports are 23.7% of GDP for the year of 2013, one ofthe lowest in Asia, creating low volatility in GDP
Foreign direct investment grew at an average rate of21.1% from 2010-2013
4thmost populous country in the world
66.6% of the population is of working age(1)and 68.5%were 39 years and younger as of 2012
Working population projected to grow at a 0.7%compared to 0.5% CAGR for total population from 2012-
2017
A high literacy rate of more than 90%
0.43
0.881.14
2007 2012 2017E
(US$tn)
Nominal GDPStrong Growth to Continue
~7mm people a year are expected to join the middle class
Consumer expenditure has grown at a 13.8% CAGR from
2000-2012 and is expected to continue at a 11.5% ratefrom 2012-2017
Disposable incomes are projected to grow at 12.1% from2012-2017
According to McKinsey, 135-170mm people will join theconsuming class(2)by 2030
Middle Class Households
(000)
Male Female
Equipped with abundant natural resources and a young and technically trained workforce, Indonesias vast economic potential is primedfor takeoff
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Rank
Country / Region No. of Companies(1)
Percentage Share
(%)2012 2013
3 1 Indonesia 219 44.9
2 2 India 213 43.6
4 3 Thailand 188 38.5
1 4 China 183 37.5
5 5 Vietnam 148 30.3
6 6 Brazil 114 23.4
7 7 Mexico 84 17.2
10 8 Myanmar 64 13.1
8 9 Russia 60 12.3
9 10 USA 54 11.1
Rank(1)
Country 2008(2)
2013(2)
Institutions InfrastructureMacro-economic
Environtment
Health andprimary
education
Highereducation and
training
Goodsmarket
efficiency
Labormarket
efficiencyFinancial market
developmentTechnological
readinessMarket
sizeBusiness
sophistication Innovation
Score Score Score Score Score Score Score Score Score Score Score Score
1 Spain 29 35 4.1 6.0 4.0 6.2 5.2 4.3 3.9 3.7 5.3 5.4 4.5 3.8
2 Thailand 34 37 3.8 4.5 5.6 5.5 4.3 4.7 4.3 4.6 3.6 5.1 4.4 3.2
3 Indonesia 55 38 4.0 4.2 5.8 5.7 4.3 4.4 4.0 4.2 3.7 5.3 4.4 3.8
4 Turkey 63 44 4.1 4.5 4.6 5.9 4.3 4.5 3.7 4.4 4.1 5.3 4.4 3.5
5 Italy 49 49 3.5 5.4 4.3 6.3 4.8 4.2 3.5 3.3 4.7 5.6 4.7 3.7
6 South Africa 45 53 4.5 4.1 4.4 3.9 3.9 4.8 3.9 5.8 3.9 4.9 4.5 3.6
7 Mexico 60 55 3.6 4.1 5.1 5.7 4.0 4.2 3.9 4.2 3.7 5.6 4.2 3.3
8 Brazil 64 56 3.7 4.0 4.6 5.4 4.2 3.8 4.1 4.4 4.1 5.7 4.4 3.4
9 Philippines 71 59 3.8 3.4 5.3 5.3 4.3 4.2 4.1 4.4 3.6 4.7 4.3 3.2
Globally Competitive and a Top Investment Destination
15
Source: Global Competitiveness Index 2013-2014, WEF
(1) Countries with sovereign ratings in the Eaa1-Baa1 category and population larger than 40 million
(2) Rank among 148 countries
Indonesiasstage of development is categorized as efficiency-driven with a strong and well balanced performance across all 12 pillars of competitiveness
37.7
38.6
43.0
53.5
54.1
73.8
32.8
33.9
38.5
27.1
32.0
20.6
3.3
2.4
2.2
0.8
0.7
26.2
25.2
16.3
18.6
13.9
5.0
Vietnam
Thailand
Malaysia
Indonesia
India
China
Increase their level of investment Sti ll in the market, but wil l not invest moreReduce their investment Have no plans to invest
Source: The Economist Asia Economic Outlook Survey 2013
Indonesia is in the Top 40 of the Global Competitiveness Index (GCI)
JBIC: Indonesia is the #1 Promising Country/Region for BusinessDevelopment Over the Medium Term (Next 3 Years)
The Economist: Indonesia is the #3 Investment Destination in Asia in2013
Source: Japan Bank for International Cooperation (JBIC) FY2013 Survey Report on Overseas Business Operations of Japanese
Manufacturing Companies
(1) Total number of companies that responded was 4 88
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Strong Investment Underpinned by Competitiveness
and Stability
Investment Realization Progress Q1-2014
Investment Realization in Q1-2014 is Rp106.6 trillion, an increase around 14.6% from Q1-2013 (Rp93.0 trillion). The value of investment is based on
investment realization report by the DDI and FDI companies (Oil and Gas, Banking, Non-Bank Financial Institution, Insurance, Leasing and SMEs
are excluded).
Source: BKPM
*)Revised Investment Target 2014 Strategic Planning BKPM 20102014
**) Against target 2014
FDI by Sectors (Millions USD)
Foreign Direct Investment realization based on sector (five leading sectors) were: Mining (US$ 1.7 billion); Food Industry (US$ 0.8 billion); Transport
Equipment and Other Transport Industry (US$ 0.6 billion); Food Crops & Plantation (US$ 0.6 billion); and Paper and Printing Industry (US$ 0.5 billion).
All industrial sectors be combined, contribute US$3.5 billion or 50,9% of total foreign direct investment realization.
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Java is Still the Main Destination of Investment
Realized Foreign Direct Investment (Million USD)
Realized Domestic Direct Investment (Million USD)
Source: BKPM
Source: BKPM
305.4
2444.9
213.860.5 3.0 8.3
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
Sumatera Java Kalimantan Sulawesi Bali & NusaTenggara
Maluku andPapua
1,270.9
3,252.1
1,494.1
171.4 267.0400.6
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
Sumatera Java Kalimantan Sulawesi Bali & NusaTenggara Maluku andPapua
DDI and FDI by Economic Corridor Q1 2014
(Million USD)
147315.8%
543758.2%
2542.7%
158717.0%
2192.3%
3774.0%
Sumatera Java
Bali & Nusa Tenggara Kalimantan
Sulawesi Maluku and Papua
Source: BKPM
Based on Economic Corridor in Q1-2014, the highest realization of
DDI and FDI is located in Java Corridor.The next highest realization
of DDI is in Sumatera, Kalimantan, Sulawesi, Maluku and Papua, also
Bali and Nusa Tenggara Corridor.
While the next highest realization of FDI is Kalimantan, Sumatera,
Maluku and Papua, Bali and Nusa Tenggara, Sulawesi Corridor.
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Downward Trend on Inflation Continued
Disaggregation of Inflation
Source: BPS, Bank Indonesia
Inflation remains fundamentally under control as reflected in core inflation which has been fairly stable in the last 3 years and remains atapproximately below 5%.
Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation in May was 0.16% (mtm) or 7.32% (yoy), slightly higher than the previous month at -0.02% (mtm) or 7.25% (yoy).
The manageable inflation rate was supported by the ongoing correction of some food prices and stable core inflation.
Going forward, Bank Indonesia will continue to monitor inflation risks stemming from seasonal factors such as religious festivities as well as otherrisks such as potential adjustment of administered prices and rising food prices due to El Nino.
Retailers Inflation Expectation
CPI Inflation (rhs)
Retailers Expectation 3 months ahead
Retailers Expectation 6 months ahead
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Trade Balance
Balance of Payments Recorded a Surplus in Q1-2014
Balance of payments (BOP) in Q1-2014 recorded a surplus of US$2.1 billion as a result of improved current account and the capital and financialaccount.
In April 2014, Indonesiastrade balance recorded a deficit of US$1.96 billion, which was induced by seasonal factors. The seasonal factors is related toincreased demand due to Ramadhan and Idul Fitri festivities.
The trade balance deficit is contributed mainly by deficit in non-oil & gas account, while oil & gas account recorded a lower deficit compared toprevious month.
Trade Balance Deficit in April 2014
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Exchange Rate In Line With Fundamentals
Rupiah Exchange Rate
International Reserves
After a period of appreciation in Q1-2014 due to improvement in economicfundamental and BOP performance, rupiah experienced slight depreciation inApril 2014.
In May 2014, Rupiah was slightly corrected by 0.81% (mtm) to Rp11,532 perUSD. Meanwhile rupiah volatility is well maintained and is lower than previousmonth.
The depreciation is influenced by seasonal factors related to the demand offoreign currency for the purposes of import payments, dividends and foreigndebt payments. The weakening of the rupiah is also in line with some of thecurrency movements in the region.
Relatively stable exchange rate is also reflected in the increasing trend of FXreserves. (US$107.0 Billion or equal to 6.0 of imports and official debt
repayment).
Apr./Depr. of Regional Currencies
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6.50
6.75
6.50
6.00
5.75
6.00
6.50
7.00
7.25
7.50
5.00
5.50
6.00
6.50
7.00
7.50
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
(%)(%)
21
Monetary Policy Stance
BI Rate
Source: Bank Indonesia
On June 12 2014, BI decided to hold the BI Rate at 7.50%, with Lending Facility rate and Deposit Facility rate each kept at 7.50% and 5.75%, respectively.
The policy is consistent with ongoing efforts to guide inflation back towards its target corridor of 4.51% in 2014 and 4.01% in 2015, as well as reducethe current account deficit to a more sustainable level.
Bank Indonesia considers the ongoing economic rebalancing process to be progressing well, despite several risks that require vigilance, and will continueto institute anticipatory measures to ensure the inflation target can be achieved and current account performance can be improved.
Bank Indonesia will continue to strengthen the monetary and macroprudential policy mix as well as implement structural policies to boost domesticeconomy while also managing the external debt, in particular corporate external debt.
BI will also increase coordination efforts with the Government in terms of inflation control and the current account deficit.
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22
Financial System Stability Well-Maintained
Banking industry resilience remains solid with credit risk, liquidity risk and market risk well anticipated, underpinned by support from solid capitalstructure, CAR above the minimum level of 8% (19.4% as of April 2014) and gross NPLs managed at comfortably safe level below 5% (2.05% as of April2014). Credit growth eased from 19.1% (yoy) in March 2014 to 18.5% in April 2014 in line with moderating domestic demand.
Meanwhile, stock market strengthened in the midst of a slightly weakening bond market. Jakarta Composite Index (JCI) was closed at 4,893.91 (30 May2014), up by 1.1% compared to the previous month at 4,840.15 (30 April 2014), while SBN bond yield has increased by 4.25 bps to 7.91%, compared toApril 2014 which reached 7.86%.
CAR Comfortably High, Low NPL and Favorable LDR
Stock Market Strengthened
Slowdown in Loan Growth
Slightly Weakening Government Bonds Yield
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 15 20 30
April 2014 - Mei 2014 (mtm)
Apr-14
May-14
% bps
Tenor
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
0
1.000
2.000
3.000
4.000
5.000
6.000
1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Net B el i/ Jual ( RHS) IHS G
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23
Prudent Fiscal Management
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2
Source: Ministry of Finance
Source: Ministry of Finance
(1)
95
.1%
80
.2%
67
.8%
60
.5%
55
.8%
46
.3%
39
.0%
35
.1%
33
.0%
2
8.3
%
26
.1%
24.
3%
24.0%
26
.1%
54
.9%
46
.5%
35
.9%
32
.2%
30
.1%
31
.8%
2
8.3
%
26
.4%
2
8.7
%
30
.2%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Govt Debt to GDP External Debt to GDP
(1.3%)
(0.1%)
(1.6%)
(0.7%)(1.1%)
(1.9%)(2.3%)
(1.7%)
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014Bu
dge
t
(% GDP)
Consistent fiscalconservatism is a hallmarkof Indonesias
macroeconomicmanagement
A combination of moderateleverage and consistentdebt reduction providesmore fiscal headroom torespond to economic shocks
As a result, Indonesia hasbeen able to maintain alower fiscal deficit versussimilar and higher ratedpeers
Between 2007-2013,Indonesia budget deficitaveraged at 1.3%.
07 13 Avg:(1.3%)
Indonesia has Maintained a Sustainable Fiscal Deficit ... And a Consistent Path of Govt. Debt Reduction
2012 Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)
Source: Ministry of Finance and S&P Sovereign Risk Indicators as of July 2013
Favorable Current Macro Conditions is Supported by Prudent
Fiscal Management
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25
Indonesias iscal Policyin Mitigating Global Crisis
Extremely prudent with fiscal deficits and debt ratios among
lowest in the world
Addresses growth and social needs through capital spending
and subsidies while lowering debt to GDP
Aims for quality spending with capital expenditures increasing
Crisis mitigation measures in place
Fiscal Buffers to prevent and mitigate crisis
Deferred Drawdown Option facility1
Implementing Crisis Management Protocol1
Implementing Bond Stabilization Framework2
Enhancing coordination between governmentinstitutions and continuous dialogue withmarket participants
3
Specific policies in place to address crisisenacted in the 2013 budget law
4
Swap facility arrangements based oninternational cooperation5
Specific articles in the 2013 State Budget Lawthat provide flexibility for Government to take
quick mitigation action if necessary, withParliament approval that has to be given within
24 hours
2
Pre-emptive measures
Chiang Mai Initiative Multilateralization6
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26
Improved Government Debt Position
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Secondary Market Performance of Central Government Bonds
[In Percentage] As of June 19th, 2014
Yield of Benchmark Series
2.00
4.00
6.00
8.00
10.00
12.00
14.00
16.00
18.00
20.00
22.00
Apr'08
Aug'08
Dec'08
Apr'09
Aug'09
Dec'09
Apr'10
Aug'10
Dec'10
Apr'11
Aug'11
Dec'11
Apr'12
Aug'12
Dec'12
Apr'13
Aug'13
Dec'13
Apr'14
5Y 10Y
15Y 20Y
Global FinancialCrisis
Eurozone
sovereign debt
crisis
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Government Securities Realization
*Adjusted by changes in Cash Management & Debt Switch
(Million IDR)
Budget 2014Realization
(ao June 19th , 2014)
% Realization
to Budget2014
Government Securities Net 205,068,831 150,069,098 73.18%
Government Securities Maturing in 2014 164,764,045 90,554,582 54.96%
-Buyback 3,000,000 970,968 32.37%
Issuance Need 2014* 369,832,876 240,623,680 65.06%
Government Debt Securities (GDS) 200,494,335
Domestic GDS 148,040,885
-Coupon GDS (Auction, Private Placement) 109,100,000
-Conventional T-Bills (Auction, Private Placement) 24,150,000
-SPNNT 20140303 12,400,000
-Retail Bonds 2,390,885
International Bonds 52,453,450
Government Islamic Debt Securities 40,129,345
Domestic Government Islamic Debt Securities 40,129,345- IFR/PBS/T-Bills Sukuk (Islamic Fixed Rated Bond/Project Based Sukuk 20,806,000
- Retail Sukuk 19,323,345
Global Sukuk -
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Outstanding of Total Central Government Debt
29Source: Ministry of Finance
[in percentage]
[USD billion]
68.91 68.59 63.09 6 2.02 62.25 66.69 65.02 6 8.65 68.51 63.76 58.28 58.65
76.64 71.2970.51
82.34 85.26 82.78
104.20
118.39 130.97 140.75
136.27153.30
-
50
100
150
200
250
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 May 30
2014
Loan Government Securities
Year 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 May 30 2014
Loan 47% 49% 47% 43% 42% 45% 38% 37% 37% 31% 30% 28%
Government Securities 53% 51% 53% 57% 58% 55% 62% 63% 63% 69% 70% 72%
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Total Debt Maturity Profile as of May 31, 2014
30
Maturity Profile of Central Government by Instruments (in trillion IDR)
Maturity Profile of Central Government by Currencies (in trillion IDR)
020406080
100120140
160180200220240
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
2041-2055
Foreign Domestic
020406080
100120140160180200220
240
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
2041-
2055
Gov't Securit ies Loan
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Central Government Debt Securities Issuance Plan 2014
31Source: Ministry of Finance
Govt Debt Operation Policy Combination
Domestic market issuance will be prioritized
Issuance in benchmark tenor, Benchmark Series for 2014:
Issuance in global market
Maximum non-IDR govt securities issuance approximately 18%-20% fromtotal govt debt securities issuance
FR 69 5 Y
FR 7010 Y
FR 7115 Y
FR 6820 Y
Primary Dealers
1. Citibank N.A
2. Deutsche Bank AG
3. HSBC
4. PT. Bank Central Asia, Tbk
5. PT. Bank Danamon Indonesia, Tbk.
6. PT. Bank Internasional Indonesia, Tbk
7. PT. Bank Mandiri (Persero), Tbk
8. PT. Bank Negara Indonesia (Persero), Tbk
9. PT. Bank OCBC NISP, Tbk
10. PT. Bank Panin, Tbk
11. PT. Bank Rakyat Indonesia, Tbk
12. PT. Bank Permata, Tbk
13. PT. Bank CIMB Niaga, Tbk
14. Standard Chartered Bank
15. JPMorgan Chase Bank NA.
16. PT. Bahana Securities
17. PT. Danareksa Sekuritas
18. PT. Mandiri Sekuritas
19. PT. Trimegah Securities, Tbk
Budget % to GDP
A. Total Revenue 1.667.140,8 16,07%
B. Total Expenditure 1.842.495,3 17,76%
C. Primary Balance (54.069,0) -0,52%
D. Deficit (175.354,5) -1,69%
E. Financing 175.354,5 1,69%
I. Non Debt Financing (9.773,7) -0,09%
II. Debt Financing 185.128,2 1,78%
1. Government Securities (Net) 205.068,8 1,98%
2. Foreign Loan (Net) (20.903,6) -0,20%
+ Disbursement 39.132,7 0,38%
- Program Loan 3.900,0 0,04%
- Project Loan 35.232,7 0,34%
+ Subsidiary Loan Agreement (SLA) (1.226,3) -0,01%
+ Repayment (58.810,0) -0,57%
3. Domestic Loan (Net) 963,0 0,01%
Assumptions :a. GDP (trillion IDR) (Y.o.Y) 10.376.006,3
b. Growth (%) 6,0
c. Inflation (%) y-o-y 5,5
d. 3-month-SPN (%) 5,5
e. IDR/USD (average) 10.500
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Holders of Tradable Central Government Securities
32
Holders of Tradable Domestic Government Securities Foreign Ownership of Govt Domestic Debt Securities
Source: Ministryof Finance
Continued Increasing proportion of foreign ownership of Indonesian Government securities.
10% 12% 8% 5% 6% 7% 7% 8%
5% 8%
3% 5% 5% 4% 5% 3%
18%17%
16% 13% 11% 15% 15% 16%
21%
25%28% 32% 38%
34% 33% 33%
46% 38% 45% 44% 41% 40% 41% 41%
30.53% 30.80%32.98% 32.54%
33.64% 34.59%
35.72% 35.93%
0.00%
20.00%
40.00%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 19-Jun-14
>10 >5-10 >2-5 >1-2 0-1 % Foreign Ownership to Total (RHS)
33.88% 36.63% 36.53% 33.70% 31.65%
35.59% 32.58% 30.49% 33.76%32.42%
30.53% 30.80% 32.98%
32.54% 35.93%
Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 19-Jun-14
Foreign Holders Domestic Non-Banks Domestic Banks
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Profile of Central Government Debt Securities
33Source: Ministry of Finance
- Since October 2006, Government and Central Bank committed to replace interest payment of Promissory Notes to Bank Indonesia (SU-002 & SU-004)with new bond (SU-007) and omitted indexation of SU-002 & SU-004
GOVERNMENT DEBT SECURITIES (GDS) Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Apr-14 May-14 19-Jun-14
1. Domestic Tradable GDS IDR 570,215 IDR 615,498 IDR 684,618 IDR 757,231 IDR 908,078 IDR 990,877 IDR 1,011,601 IDR 1,021,951
a. Zero Coupon IDR 33,386 IDR 32,307 IDR 32,412 IDR 24,083 IDR 34,050 IDR 39,800 IDR 40,850 IDR 42,200
1. Government Treasury Bills IDR 24,700 IDR 29,795 IDR 29,900 IDR 22,820 IDR 34,050 IDR 39,800 IDR 40,850 IDR 42,200
2. Zero Coupon Bond IDR 8,686 IDR 2,512 IDR 2,512 IDR 1,263 IDR - IDR - IDR - IDR -
b. Government Domestic Bonds IDR 536,829 IDR 583,191 IDR 652,206 IDR 733,148 IDR 874,028 IDR 951,077 IDR 970,751 IDR 979,751
1. Fixed Rate *) +) IDR 393,543 IDR 440,396 IDR 517,142 IDR 610,393 IDR 751,273 IDR 828,322 IDR 847,996 IDR 856,996
2. Variable Rate *) IDR 143,286 IDR 142,795 IDR 135,063 IDR 122,755 IDR 122,755 IDR 122,755 IDR 122,755 IDR 122,755
2. Promissory Notes to Bank Indonesia **) ***) IDR 251,875 IDR 248,432 IDR 244,636 IDR 240,144 IDR 234,870 IDR 233,088 IDR 233,088 IDR 232,033
3. SPNNT IDR - IDR - IDR -
4 Retai l Saving Bonds IDR 2,391 IDR 2,391
5 Total GDS (1+2+3+4) IDR 822,090 IDR 863,930 IDR 929,254 IDR 997,376 IDR 1,142,948 IDR 1,223,965 IDR 1,247,080 IDR 1,256,375
5. Total Government International Bonds *) USD 14,200 USD 16,200 USD 18,700 USD 22,950 USD 27,140 USD 30,190 USD 29,190 USD 29,190
35,000 95,000 95,000 155,000 155,000 155,000 155,000 155,000
6. TOTAL GOV'T DEBT SECURIT IES (3+(4*Exchange Rate Assumption)) IDR 959,130 IDR 1,020,062 IDR 1,109,922 IDR 1,236,658 IDR 1,491,763 IDR 1,589,571 IDR 1,603,729 IDR 1,622,316
GOVERNMENT ISLAMIC DEBT SECURITIES (GIDS)
a. Domestic Tradable GIDS IDR 11,533 IDR 25,717 IDR 38,988 IDR 63,035 IDR 87,174 IDR 98,904 IDR 100,253 IDR 101,329
a. Fixed Rate *)++) IDR 11,533 IDR 25,717 IDR 37,668 IDR 62,840 IDR 78,541 IDR 94,019 IDR 95,343 IDR 95,894
b. Zero Coupon IDR 1,320 IDR 195 IDR 8,633 IDR 4,885 IDR 4,910 IDR 5,435
b. Domestic Non Tradable GIDS
IDR 2,686 IDR 12,783 IDR 23,783 IDR 35,783 IDR 31,533 IDR 35,533 IDR 35,533 IDR 35,533
c. Government International Islamic Bonds
1. Fixed Rate *) USD 650 USD 650 USD 1,650 USD 2,650 USD 4,150 USD 3,500 USD 3,500 USD 3,500
7. TOTAL GOV'T DEBT SECURITIES (6+(8*Exchange Rate Assumption)) IDR 17,643 IDR 31,561 IDR 53,950 IDR 88,660 IDR 137,758 IDR 139,266 IDR 140,892 IDR 143,035
8. TOTAL GOVERNMENT SECURITIES IDR 979,458 IDR 1,064,406 IDR 1,187,655 IDR 1,361,101 IDR 1,661,055 IDR 1,764,369 IDR 1,780,154 IDR 1,800,884
Notes:- Nominal in billi on rupiah (domestic bonds), million USD & million JPY (international bonds)
- *) Tradable
- **) Non-Tradable
- +) Including ORI (IDR Billion)) IDR 40,149 IDR 40,672 IDR 42,616 IDR 34,153 IDR 43,882 IDR 43,882 IDR 43,882 IDR 43,882
- ++) Including Sukuk Ritel/SR (IDR Billion) IDR 5,556 IDR 13,590 IDR 20,931 IDR 28,989 IDR 35,924 IDR 47,906 IDR 47,906 IDR 47,906
- Exchange Rate Assumption (IDR/USD1) IDR 9,400 IDR 8,991 IDR 9,068 IDR 9,670 IDR 12,189 IDR 11,532 IDR 11,611 IDR 11,916
- Exchange Rate Assumption (IDR/JPY1) IDR 101.70 IDR 110.29 IDR 116.80 IDR 111.97 IDR 116.17 IDR 112.61 IDR 114.35 IDR 116.86
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Debt Switch Cash Buyback Program
34
Debt Switch Program
Buyback Program
[in billion IDR]
AuctionsDirect
Transactions
2003 2 - 8.127
2004 1 - 1.962
2005 4 - 5.158
2007 2 - 2.859
2008 3 - 2.375
2009 1 1 8.528
2010 10 3 3.201
2011 2 8 3.500
2012 - 6 1.138
2013 - 5 1.551
2014 3 1.351
GRAND TOTAL 39.750
Frequencies
YearVolume
(IDR billion)
Auction DateAuction
Frequency
Source Bonds Tenor
SeriesOffer Received Offer Awarded
2005 1 9 series 7,721 5,673
2006 12 7 up to 21 series 54,177 31,179
2007 9 12 up to 21 series 30,681 15,782
2008 2 21 up to 31 series 7,490 4,571
2009 6 24 up to 28 series 8,663 2,938
2010 6 11 up to 28 series 8,349 3,920
2011 4 22 up to 27 series 3,080 664
2012 4 10 up to 20 series 23,126 11,859
2013 5 7 up to 13 series 7,222 1,976
2014 2 9 up to 12 series 6,370 4,672
Total 156,879 83,234
Maturity Profile of Tradable Central Government Securities
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as of June 19, 2014
35Source: Ministry of Finance
[IDR Trillion]
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 2041 2042 2043 2044
TOTAL 61, 96, 87, 75, 89, 111 75, 65, 99, 84, 103 27, 19, 45, 50, 47, 25, 27, 42, 47, 39, 19, 4,1 34, 39, - - 13, 38, 26, 31,
SUKUK USD - - - - 11, 17, - - 11, - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
SUKUK IDR 5,4 18, 14, 20, 8,7 - 1,6 - 1,2 - - 1,5 - 3,7 - - 2,1 - - - - - 4,1 10, - - - - - 8,1 -
SUN JPY - - - - - 4,0 7,0 - 7,0 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
SUN USD - 11, 10, 18, 22, 23, 23, 29, 23, 29, 23, - - - - - - - - - - 19, - 17, 23, - - - 26, 17, 23,
SUN IDR 56, 66, 62, 37, 45, 65, 43, 35, 55, 54, 79, 26, 19, 41, 50, 47, 23, 27, 42, 47, 39, - - 6,4 15, - - 13, 12, - 8,0
-
20,00
40,00
60,00
80,00
100,00
120,00
Daily Transaction Offshore Ownership
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36
Average Daily transaction Govt Bonds Net Buyer (Seller) Non Resident
Source: Ministry of Finance
[Trillion IDR]
2,549 3,3075,899
4,235 3,4214,963
7,6719,180
12,024
16,18317,09219,474
16,38214,391
16,389
-
80
160
240
320
400
480
560
-
6,000
12,000
18,000
24,000
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Jan14
Feb14
March14
April14
Mei14
Jun'14(s.d19Jun)
Volume (billion rupiah) - LHS
Frequency - RHS
(1.49)
(29.29)
1.69
(4.99)
8.06
13.11
(8.99)
(2.27)
4.15
(4.37)
(0.08)
10.13
(1.41)
7.839.35
19.52
0.682.68
8.44
(0.88)
17.97
4.22
(19.98)
2.81
(1.76)
10.13
23.98
6.08
(0.37)
4.82
16.4915.77
16.10
20.15
6.48
(0.15)
(0.10)
(0.05)
0.00
0.05
0.10
(40.00)
(30.00)
(20.00)
(10.00)
0.00
10.00
20.00
30.00
Aug-11
Sep-11
Oct-11
Nov-11
Dec-11
Jan-12
Feb-12
Mar-12
Apr-12
May-12
Jun-12
Jul-12
Aug-12
Sep-12
Oct-12
Nov-12
Dec-12
Jan-13
Feb-13
Mar-13
Apr-13
May-13
Jun-13
Jul-13
Aug-13
Sep-13
Oct-13
Nov-13
Dec-13
Jan-14
Feb-14
Mar-14
Apr-14
May-14
19-Jun-14
Capital Inflows Capital inflows over total foreign holders
Ownership of IDR Tradable Central Government Securities
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37
Source: Ministry of Finance
Notes:- Foreign Holders (offshore) are non-resident Private Banking, Fund/Asset Mgmt, Securities Co, Insurance,Pension Fund, etc
- Others are Corporate, Foundations, etc.- Private BanksRecap and Non Recap Banks include foreign banks branches and subsidiaries
(IDR Trillion)`
Banks 254.36 43.72% 217.27 33.88% 265.03 36.63% 299.66 36.73% 335.43 33.70% 343.08 31.48% 340.19 30.60% 355.52 31.65%
Govt Institutions 22.50 3.87% 17.42 2.72% 7.84 1.08% 3.07 0.37% 44.44 4.47% 53.42 4.90% 53.89 4.85% 44.79 3.99%
Non-Banks 304.89 52.41% 406.53 63.40% 450.75 62.29% 517.53 63.09% 615.38 61.83% 693.28 63.62% 717.77 64.56% 722.97 64.36%
Mutual Funds 45.22 7.77% 51.16 7.98% 47.22 6.53% 43.19 5.27% 42.50 4.27% 44.82 4.11% 45.81 4.12% 45.93 4.09%
Insurance Company 72.58 12.48% 79.30 12.37% 93.09 12.86% 83.42 10.17% 129.55 13.02% 145.71 13.37% 150.67 13.55% 150.57 13.40%
Foreign Holders 108.00 18.56% 195.76 30.53% 222.86 30.80% 270.52 32.98% 323.83 32.54% 377.00 34.59% 397.16 35.72% 403.63 35.93%
Pension Fund 37.50 6.45% 36.75 5.73% 34.39 4.75% 56.46 6.88% 39.47 3.97% 39.07 3.59% 39.13 3.52% 38.90 3.46%
Securities Company 0.46 0.08% 0.13 0.02% 0.14 0.02% 0.30 0.04% 0.88 0.09% 0.91 0.08% 0.93 0.08% 0.87 0.08%
Individual 32.48 3.26% 33.93 3.11% 32.52 2.92% 31.70 2.82%
Others 41.12 7.07% 43.43 6.77% 53.05 7.33% 63.64 7.76% 46.68 4.69% 51.84 4.76% 51.56 4.64% 51.37 4.57%
Total 581.75 100% 641. 21 100% 723. 61 100% 820.27 100% 995.25 100% 1,089.78 100% 1,111.85 100% 1,123.28 100%
Dec-12Dec-09 Dec-10 June 19, 2014Apr-14Dec-11 Dec-13 May-14
