Download - Curva IDF de Cuenca Ver1

Transcript

Registros PluvimetroDATOS ESTACIN PLUVIOMTRICAEstacin:Coordenadas UTM Huso 31 (m)X =Cota =Denominacin:Y =DATOS MENSUALES DE PRECIPITACIN MXIMA EN 24 Hrs. (mm)AoEneroFebreroMarzoAbrilMayoJunioJulioAgostoSeptiembreOctubreNoviembreDiciembreMximo196930.0034.0012.0016.000.0014.000.000.002.000.0030.0035.0035.00197040.0021.0020.000.0012.000.000.000.0018.008.006.0020.7040.00197124.0036.008.000.000.000.000.007.000.0020.0016.0028.0036.00197226.0036.0020.0012.006.006.000.000.008.006.0014.0027.0036.00197326.0018.0032.00*21.0030.506.0018.006.0026.0017.5036.0036.00197466.5037.0039.0029.000.000.002.0022.009.5015.0013.00*66.50197532.0054.0031.0047.004.303.500.004.5025.0016.0014.0050.4054.00197637.0047.0030.004.2014.600.000.808.0012.203.208.2016.1047.00197715.4045.0040.005.300.000.002.3010.4020.5022.3032.7024.5045.00197834.5025.0043.4045.200.000.000.002.500.0018.1018.6026.2045.20197927.2522.1031.7026.350.000.001.002.502.5023.0513.0524.8531.70198020.0019.2020.007.500.000.002.00*5.0028.007.5023.5028.00198129.5043.0029.0015.000.000.000.0017.1019.5025.3033.8031.8043.00198244.5021.3045.1040.902.700.000.000.9022.3019.2018.0015.3045.10198354.5011.30*3.003.001.002.003.001.008.004.0017.6054.50198440.0040.0040.2010.000.000.000.003.000.0020.0035.0025.0040.20198530.2041.5030.0020.000.0010.005.0015.0025.0025.2025.2030.2041.50198627.6033.4038.6017.650.005.003.5010.5014.5019.3523.6032.6038.60198727.6033.4038.6017.650.005.003.5010.5014.5019.3523.6032.6038.60198827.6033.4038.6017.650.005.003.5010.5014.5019.3523.6032.6038.60199927.6033.4038.6017.650.005.003.5010.5014.5019.3523.6032.6038.60199025.0025.3047.2015.300.000.002.006.004.0013.5022.0035.0047.201991*19.5020.005.000.000.000.005.0020.0015.0020.0021.0021.00199228.0028.0025.000.000.0015.0017.0015.0011.0020.0025.0035.0035.00199328.0028.0025.756.000.007.508.507.5015.5022.5017.5031.5031.501994**26.5012.000.000.000.000.0020.0025.0010.0028.0028.00199530.5026.0014.504.500.000.000.007.5010.0040.008.0021.0040.00199620.0028.0025.0020.000.000.000.0017.0010.0010.0010.0042.0042.00199760.0060.0028.000.000.000.000.000.0053.0028.0023.0018.0060.00199830.0035.0044.0022.000.000.002.000.007.0030.0036.0024.0044.00199922.0049.0028.008.000.000.002.000.0017.0018.0023.0023.0049.00200085.0012.0025.000.000.003.000.000.000.0028.0014.0028.0085.00200132.0026.0038.0010.000.000.000.002.0015.008.0016.0012.0038.00200210.4045.0018.0057.900.000.003.200.000.0034.2040.4080.7080.70200341.3027.000.000.000.000.000.000.0014.300.0015.1058.3058.30200438.4045.1015.4065.205.000.006.007.005.1026.3046.4035.2065.20200535.1032.0010.0060.300.000.000.000.0011.3041.5028.3047.0060.30200636.4021.0032.0013.000.000.000.000.000.0026.2030.0034.0036.40200732.0031.0034.008.200.000.000.000.00*48.2030.4062.0062.00MAX85.0060.0047.2065.2021.0030.5017.0022.0053.0048.2046.4080.7085.00

Precip. Mx. ProbableDistribucin de probabilidades pluviomtricas mediante GumbelNAoMesPrecipitacin (mm)Max. Precip.xi(xi - x)^211969035.00103.987698882321970040.0027.01333990831971036.0084.592827087441972036.0084.592827087451973036.0084.592827087461974066.50453.799237343971975054.0077.485134779881976047.003.249237343991977045.000.0389809336101978045.200.0000065746111979031.70182.18121980028.00295.75131981043.004.83141982045.100.01151983054.5086.54161984040.2024.97171985041.5013.67181986038.6043.53191987038.6043.53201988038.6043.53211999038.6043.53221990047.204.01231991021.00585.52241992035.00103.99251993031.50187.62261994028.00295.75271995040.0027.01281996042.0010.22291997060.00219.12301998044.001.43311999049.0014.46322000085.001584.24332001038.0051.80342002080.701260.43352003058.30171.68362004065.20400.10372005060.30228.09382006036.4077.39392007062.00282.33Clculo variables probabilsticasClculo de las Precipitaciones Diarias Mximas Probables para distintas frecuencias45.20mmPeriodoVariablePrecip.Prob. deCorreccinRetornoReducida(mm)ocurrenciaintervalo fijoAosYTXT'(mm)F(xT)XT (mm)20.366542.93520.500048.516851.499955.10530.800062.269013.77mm102.250463.16290.900071.3741253.198573.34380.960082.8785503.901980.89650.980091.413110.74mm1004.600188.39350.990099.88465006.2136105.71780.9980119.461239.00mm39Suma1762.77206.6

Tabla PdCoeficientes para las relaciones a la lluvia de duracin 24 horasFuente: D. F. Campos A., 1978Duraciones, en horas12345681218240.300.390.460.520.570.610.680.800.911.00Precipitaciones mximas para diferentes tiempos de duracin de lluviasTiempo deCocientePrecipitacin mxima Pd (mm) por tiempos de duracinDuracin2 aos5 aos10 aos25 aos50 aos100 aos500 aos24 hrX2448.516862.269071.374182.878591.413199.8846119.461218 hrX18 = 91%44.150356.664864.950466.302883.185990.8950108.709712 hrX12 = 80%38.813449.815257.099366.302873.130479.907795.56898 hrX8 = 68%32.991442.342948.534456.357462.160967.921681.23366 hrX6 = 61%29.595237.984143.538250.555955.762060.929672.87135 hrX5 = 57%27.654635.493340.683247.240752.105456.934268.09294 hrX4 = 52%25.228732.379937.114543.096847.534851.940062.11983 hrX3 = 46%22.317728.643732.832138.124142.050045.946954.95212 hrX2 = 39%18.921524.284927.835932.322635.651138.955046.58991 hrX1 = 30%14.555018.680721.412224.863527.423929.965435.8383

Tabla IIntensidades de lluvia a partir de Pd, segn Duracin de precipitacin y Frecuencia de la mismaTiempo de duracinIntensidad de la lluvia (mm /hr) segn el Periodo de RetornoHrmin2 aos5 aos10 aos25 aos50 aos100 aos500 aos24 hr14402.02152.59452.97393.45333.80894.16194.977518 hr10802.45283.14803.60843.68354.62145.04976.039412 hr7203.23454.15134.75835.52526.09426.65907.96418 hr4804.12395.29296.06687.04477.77018.490210.15426 hr3604.93256.33077.25648.42609.293710.154912.14525 hr3005.53097.09878.13669.448110.421111.386813.61864 hr2406.30728.09509.278610.774211.883712.985015.53003 hr1807.43929.547910.944012.708014.016715.315618.31742 hr1209.460812.142413.917916.161317.825519.477523.29491 hr6014.555018.680721.412224.863527.423929.965435.8383

Regresiones I-D-TRepresentacin matemtica de las curvas Intensidad - Duracin - Perodo de retorno:en la cual:I =Intensidad (mm/hr)t =Duracin de la lluvia (min)T =Perodo de retorno (aos)K, m, n =Parmetros de ajusteRealizando un cambio de variable:Con lo que de la anterior expresin se obtiene:Periodo de retorno para T = 2 aosSerie T= 2 aosNxyln xln yln x*ln y(lnx)^2xy114402.02157.27240.70395.118752.887814402.0215210802.45286.98470.89726.266948.786310802.452837203.23456.57931.17397.723143.28657203.234544804.12396.17381.41688.747138.11564804.123953604.93255.88611.59599.393434.64623604.932563005.53095.70381.71049.755532.53313005.530972406.30725.48061.841710.093630.03742406.307281807.43925.19302.006810.421126.96681807.439291209.46084.78752.247210.758222.92011209.4608106014.55504.09432.677910.964416.76376014.555010498060.058458.155516.271589.2419346.9435Ln (d) =5.2118d =183.4189n =-0.6164Periodo de retorno para T = 5 aosSerie T= 5 aosNxyln xln yln x*ln y(lnx)^2xy114402.59457.27240.95346.933652.887814402.5945210803.14806.98471.14688.009948.786310803.148037204.15136.57931.42349.365043.28657204.151344805.29296.17381.666410.287738.11564805.292953606.33075.88611.845410.862334.64623606.330763007.09875.70381.959911.178932.53313007.098772408.09505.48062.091211.461330.03742408.095081809.54795.19302.256311.717026.96681809.5479912012.14244.78752.496711.953022.920112012.1424106018.68074.09432.927511.986216.76376018.680710498077.082058.155518.7670103.7548346.9435Ln (d) =5.4613d =235.4094n =-0.6164Periodo de retorno para T = 10 aosSerie T= 10 aosNxyln xln yln x*ln y(lnx)^2xy114402.97397.27241.08997.926152.887814402.9739210803.60846.98471.28338.963248.786310803.608437204.75836.57931.559910.262943.28657204.758344806.06686.17381.802811.130338.11564806.066853607.25645.88611.981911.665534.64623607.256463008.13665.70382.096411.957332.53313008.136672409.27865.48062.227712.209330.03742409.2786818010.94405.19302.392812.425726.966818010.9440912013.91794.78752.633212.606322.920112013.9179106021.41224.09433.064012.544916.76376021.412210498088.353258.155520.1318111.6914346.9435Ln (d) =5.5978d =269.8316n =-0.6164Periodo de retorno para T = 25 aosSerie T= 25 aosNxyln xln yln x*ln y(lnx)^2xy114403.45337.27241.23939.012852.887814403.4533210803.68356.98471.30399.107148.786310803.683537205.52526.57931.709311.246143.28657205.525244807.04476.17381.952312.052938.11564807.044753608.42605.88612.131312.545234.64623608.426063009.44815.70382.245812.809732.53313009.4481724010.77425.48062.377213.028330.037424010.7742818012.70805.19302.542213.201726.966818012.7080912016.16134.78752.782613.321822.920112016.1613106024.86354.09433.213413.156816.76376024.8635104980102.087858.155521.4973119.4823346.9435Ln (d) =5.8346d =341.9309n =-0.6336Periodo de retorno para T = 50 aosSerie T= 50 aosNxyln xln yln x*ln y(lnx)^2xy114403.80897.27241.33739.725652.887814403.8089210804.62146.98471.530710.691548.786310804.621437206.09426.57931.807311.890943.28657206.094244807.77016.17382.050312.658038.11564807.770153609.29375.88612.229313.122134.64623609.2937630010.42115.70382.343813.368732.533130010.4211724011.88375.48062.475213.565530.037424011.8837818014.01675.19302.640213.710726.966818014.0167912017.82554.78752.880613.791022.920112017.8255106027.42394.09433.311413.558116.76376027.4239104980113.159258.155522.6063126.0822346.9435Ln (d) =5.8453d =345.5894n =-0.6164Periodo de retorno para T = 100 aosSerie T= 100 aosNxyln xln yln x*ln y(lnx)^2xy114404.16197.27241.426010.370252.887814404.1619210805.04976.98471.619311.310648.786310805.049737206.65906.57931.896012.474043.28657206.659044808.49026.17382.138913.205238.11564808.4902536010.15495.88612.318013.643834.646236010.1549630011.38685.70382.432513.874232.533130011.3868724012.98505.48062.563814.051230.037424012.9850818015.31565.19302.728914.170926.966818015.3156912019.47754.78752.969314.215322.920112019.4775106029.96544.09433.400013.920916.76376029.9654104980123.646158.155523.4926131.2364346.9435Ln (d) =5.9339d =377.6164n =-0.6164Periodo de retorno para T = 500 aosSerie T= 500 aosNxyln xln yln x*ln y(lnx)^2xy114404.97757.27241.604911.671752.887814404.9775210806.03946.98471.798312.560748.786310806.039437207.96416.57932.074913.651643.28657207.9641448010.15426.17382.317914.310138.115648010.1542536012.14525.88612.496914.697234.646236012.1452630013.61865.70382.611414.895132.533130013.6186724015.53005.48062.742815.032130.037424015.5300818018.31745.19302.907915.100326.966818018.3174912023.29494.78753.148215.072222.920112023.2949106035.83834.09433.579014.653716.76376035.8383104980147.879658.155525.2823141.6448346.9435Ln (d) =6.1129d =451.6259n =-0.6164

Regresiones I-D-T

I Vs. tDuracin (min)Intensidad (mm/hr)Regresin T= 2 aosy = 27,4095x-0,6164

R = 0,999

Cte. Regresin Cuenca

I vs TDuracin (min)Intensidad (mm/hr)Regresin T= 5 aos

Curvas IDF Cuenca

I vs TDuracin (min)Intensidad (mm/hr)Regresin T= 10 aos

I vs TDuracin (min)Intensidad (mm/hr)Regresin T= 25 aos

I vs TDuracin (min)Intensidad (mm/hr)Regresin T= 50 aos

I vs TDuracin (min)Intensidad (mm/hr)Regresin T= 100 aos

Duracin (min)Intensidad (mm/hr)Regresin T= 500 aos

Resumen de aplicacin de regresin potencialPeriodo deTrmino ctte. deCoef. deRetorno (aos)regresin (d)regresin [n]2183.41890738319-0.616386088095235.40936255578-0.6163860880910269.83156771881-0.6163860880925341.93087946892-0.6336250046350345.58937145529-0.61638608809100377.61638612925-0.61638608809500451.62592786760-0.61638608809Promedio =315.06034322555-0.61884879045En funcin del cambio de variable realizado, se realiza otra regresin de potencia entre las columnas del periodo de retorno (T) y el trmino constante de regresin (d), para obtener valores de la ecuacin:Regresin potencialNxyln xln yln x*ln y(lnx)^2xy12183.41890.69315.21183.61250.48052183.418925235.40941.60945.46138.78972.59035235.4094310269.83162.30265.597812.88945.301910269.8316425341.93093.21895.834618.780910.361225341.9309550345.58943.91205.845322.866815.303950345.58946100377.61644.60525.933927.326521.2076100377.61647500451.62596.21466.112937.989038.6214500451.625976922205.422422.555839.9975132.254893.8667Ln (K) =5.2010K =181.4568m =0.1592Termino constante de regresin (K) =181.4568Coef. de regresin (m) =0.159177

d Vs. TPerodo de Retorno (aos)Constante de Regresin d

La ecuacin de intensidad vlida para la cuenca resulta:0.159177Donde:I =181.4568* TI = intensidad de precipitacin (mm/hr)0.61885T = Periodo de Retorno (aos)tt = Tiempo de duracin de precipitacin (min)Tabla de intensidades - Tiempo de duracinFrecuenciaDuracin en minutosaos51015202530354045505560274.8448.7437.9231.7427.6424.6922.4520.6719.2118.0016.9716.08586.5956.3943.8736.7231.9828.5725.9723.9122.2320.8319.6318.601096.6962.9748.9941.0035.7131.9029.0026.7024.8223.2621.9220.7825111.8872.8556.6947.4441.3236.9133.5530.8928.7226.9125.3724.0450124.9381.3563.3052.9746.1441.2237.4734.5032.0730.0528.3326.84100139.5090.8470.6859.1551.5246.0341.8438.5235.8133.5531.6329.97500180.23117.3691.3276.4366.5759.4754.0649.7746.2743.3540.8738.72

T2T5T10T25T50T100T500TIEMPO DE DURACION (min)INTENSIDAD (mm/h)Curvas IDF de la cuenca

MBD000D51C0.unknown

MBD0015C87E.unknown

MBD00167B9A.unknown

MBD0015C87C.unknown

MBD0015C87D.unknown

MBD000D51C1.unknown

MBD00158F3D.unknown

MBD000C83C5.unknown

MBD000D51BF.unknown

MBD000C83C3.unknown

MBD000C83C4.unknown