mCAUDALES Y PROBABILIDAD OBSERVDA Y SIMULADA

J (%) TrPP (mm/d) P(x>X) F(x<X) IF(x<X)-P(x>X)I1 164.5 0.02 0.99 0.0168

1

5 20 106.5012 114.4 0.05 0.96 0.0170 15 7 76.4383 87.9 0.09 0.90 0.0134 30 3 55.9474 78.5 0.12 0.86 0.0216 50 2 38.6275 72 0.15 0.82 0.0256 75 1 20.5586 66.7 0.18 0.79 0.0288 90 1 7.3307 65.8 0.21 0.78 0.0035

2

5 39 124.5708 57.3 0.25 0.71 0.0420 15 13 94.5079 53.7 0.28 0.68 0.0450 30 6 74.01610 53 0.31 0.67 0.0203 50 3 56.69611 46.4 0.34 0.60 0.0614 75 2 38.62712 45.2 0.37 0.58 0.0439 90 1 25.40013 42 0.40 0.54 0.0517

5

5 98 148.45614 38.2 0.44 0.49 0.0694 15 31 118.39315 37.5 0.47 0.48 0.0469 30 15 97.90316 31.7 0.50 0.40 0.0951 50 8 80.58217 31.5 0.53 0.40 0.0661 75 4 62.51318 28.2 0.56 0.36 0.0807 90 3 49.28619 27.7 0.60 0.35 0.0559

20

5 390 184.59520 26 0.63 0.32 0.0480 15 124 154.53221 25.9 0.66 0.32 0.0175 30 57 134.04122 22.4 0.69 0.27 0.0341 50 29 116.72123 21.6 0.72 0.26 0.0131 75 15 98.65224 19.9 0.75 0.24 0.0039 90 9 85.42425 19.3 0.79 0.23 0.0201

50

5 975 208.48126 17.7 0.82 0.21 0.0314 15 308 178.41827 17.4 0.85 0.21 0.0594 30 141 157.92728 17 0.88 0.20 0.0863 50 73 140.60729 16.8 0.91 0.20 0.1157 75 37 122.53830 13.5 0.95 0.16 0.1083 90 22 109.31131 8 0.98 0.11 0.0837

100

5 1950 226.550Promedio 44.1193548387 15 616 196.487

Des. Est. 33.4340487064 0.1157 30 281 175.997α = 0.03836059495 50 145 158.676β = 29.0723612184 75 73 140.607

90 44 127.380

(tabla al 5% de nivel de significación)

*Prueba altamente no significativa

ORDENAMIENTO DESCENTE ESTIMACION E LOS PARAMETROS DEL MODELO Y PRUEBA DE CHEGODAYEV

Periodo de Años "n"

PRECIPITACIONES MÁXIMAS (mm/d)

∆MAX

∆t=?

∆máx (0..1157)<∆p . Por lo tanto el ajuste al Modelo Gumbel es bueno*

0.00 0.20 0.40 0.60 0.80 1.00 1.200

20406080

100120140160180

f(x) = − 36.3685413693541 ln(x) + 8.86150376549793R² = 0.981794651587258

GRAFICA DE PROBABILIDAD

PROBABILIDAD DE CHEGODAYEV

PP

MÁ

XIM

AS

(m

m/d

)