Desayuno Bice Corredora de Bolsa - Mejor Energía · LTM. SIC COLBUN PROJECTS AGENDA 21 . RM VI VII...
Transcript of Desayuno Bice Corredora de Bolsa - Mejor Energía · LTM. SIC COLBUN PROJECTS AGENDA 21 . RM VI VII...
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1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
USD
/MW
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An
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al P
ow
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Gen
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– S
IC
TWh
Others Diesel-Fuel LNG Coal Gas Hydro Average Spot Market Price
• Development based on hydro + competitive natural gas
• Power purchase agreements signed under fixed prices (set by
regulator for distribution clients)
• LNG re-gasification terminal since 2009
• Coal- fired power plants
• PPA tenders with price indexation
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2013
2015
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GENERATION AND PRICE EVOLUTION IN CHILE’S CENTRAL GRID
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Graphs Sources: 1), 2), 3), 4) CNE and CDEC-SIC.
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SIC OVERVIEW
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jan-
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feb-
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mar
-14
apr-
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may
-14
jun-
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jul-1
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aug-
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sep-
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oct-
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nov-
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dec-
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jan-
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feb-
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mar
-15
apr-
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may
-15
jun-
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jul-1
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aug-
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Marginal Cost – Monthly Average (USD/MWh)
0%
20%
40%
SIC Reservoir water level as % of total capacity
aug14-aug15 aug13-aug14
Acc Aug14 155.5
Acc Aug15 117.0 Hydro 38%
Coal 27%
Natural Gas 22%
Diesel 4%
Others 9%
Generation Matrix
Hydro 37%
Coal 29%
Natural Gas 20%
Diesel 7%
Others 7%
Aug14 Aug15
2.3%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7% Electricity Demand Growth (YoY)
2013 2014 2015
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Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar
Melting Forecast at Maule (m3/s)
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2014
Source: Colbún.
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2.000
3.000
4.000
5.000
6.000
7.000
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Aug15LTM
Colbún Hydro Generation (GWh)
Acc. Aug14: 3,915
Acc. Aug15: 3,556
HYDROLOGICAL CONDITIONS
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Los Quilos (mm) 2014 2015 144 209
Armerillo (mm) 2014 2015
1,647 1,497
Abanico (mm) 2014 2015 1,665 1,487
Canutillar (mm) 2014 2015
2,599 2,478
Acc. Rainfalls Aug14/Aug15
END OF HIGH COMMODITY PRICES
WTI (US$/Barrel) 1
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HENRY HUB (US$/MMBTU)
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2,0
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6,0
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75 78
82 86
90 94
98 102
106 110
115 119
124 128
80 85
90 95
100
107
113
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135
143
152
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181
191
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2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
CNE Apr 15 CNE Apr 14 CNE Oct 13 IEA 2012 IEA 2009
6.0%
5.9%
4.9%
4.6%
-28%
4.3%
POWER DEMAND FORECAST FOR CHILE IS DECREASING
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MWh/ person
Annual Electricity per Capita Consumption
3.3
8.3
Graphs Sources:)Wolrd Bank.
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ELECTRIC POWER GROWTH POTENTIAL
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49%
10%
17%
24%
Ownership
Matte Group Angelini Group
Pension Funds Others
Main Figures
• Assets: 6,400
• Equity: 3,400
• Mkt Cap: 4,900
• EBITDA LTM: 505
• Net Debt: 965
Intern. Ratings
• Fitch: BBB
• S&P: BBB-
OVERVIEW
As of Jun15 (US$ million)
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Installed capacity of 3,278 MW ~ 21% Market Share / 25% by Generation Dec2014
Local Ratings
• Fitch: A+
• Humphreys: AA-
Gx. Asset Diversification (MW)
• Committed Controlling Group
• High Standards of Corporate Governance
• 2 out of 9 female directors
Tx. Assets
• ~900 Km
• 27 Substations
Reservoir: 1,057
Run-of-the-river: 532
CCGT/Peaking: 1,347
Coal: 342
Wind Farm: 46*
Biomass: 26* *Through PPAs
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COLBUN IS THE SECOND LARGEST GENERATOR IN THE SIC
With over 3.2 TW of World Class Facilities
766 MW CCGT – 45%
48% Hydro
1,589 MW
52% Thermal
1,689 MW
581 MW Diesel – 35% 342 MW Coal – 20%
1,057 MW Reservoir – 67% 532 MW Run-of-the-river – 33%
3,278 MW
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This graph is shown for illustrative purposes and represents estimated and potential output of our power plants and approximate level of contractual
commitments. Real output from our power plants and variable production costs are dependent on many factors, such as hydrology, plant availability, access
to fuels (coal and LNG) and commodity prices, among others.
(*) Under medium hydrological conditions.
COMMERCIAL STRATEGY
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1,589
342
766
581
8.0
2.5
3.5
4.0
12.0
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1.000
1.500
2.000
2.500
3.000
3.500
Capacity (MW) Generation (TWh/year) Contracted Sales
MW Capacity (MW) & *Estimated Generation (TWh/year) Breakdown
Hydro
Coal
CCGT Diesel/Gas
Peaking Diesel/Gas
3,278 MW 19.5 TWh 12.0 TWh
1.5
1
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COMMERCIAL POSITION
5,233 4,857
6,655 6,380
1,853 2,616
2,623 2,690 2,242
3,234
3,011 3,074 2,240 546
546 462
6,912 7,224 7,204 7,047
2,893
4,431 3,794 4,047
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
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35%
40%
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2.000
4.000
6.000
8.000
10.000
12.000
2012 2013 2014 2Q15LTM
GWh
Hydro Coal LNG Diesel
Regulated Sales Unregulated Sales EBITDA Mg
Contractual Sales vs. Generation (GWh)
11,094 11,655 10,998
9,805
Graph Source: Colbun. Unregulated Sales 2013 & 2014 excludes sales to Codelco at Marginal Cost
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Long- term flexible gas price, providing flexibility to our LNG production
Good complement to hydro and coal
LEVERAGING OUR COMBINED CYCLES
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3,000
2,500 2,500
2,000 2,000
2,500
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1.000
1.500
2.000
2.500
3.000
3.500
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020-2040
Contracted Gas Generation: Metrogas and ENAP (GWh)
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Regasification
Capacity (GWh)
Optional
39%
61%
Sales by Type of Costumer (%)
Unregulated
Regulated
Codelco (A/A+) 29%
Chilectra (BBB+/BBB+
)* 21% CGED (Local
A+) 19%
Saesa (Local AA) 17%
AngloAmerican
(BBB/BBB+) 9%
Others 5%
Sales Volume by Customer (%)
Graphs Sources: 1), 2), 3), 4) Colbun as of June15 LTM. 4) Average monomic prices are calculated by dividing the total amount of sales in US$, by physical energy sales in MWh.
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Regulated Costumers
Unregulated Costumers
Average Monomic Price (US$/MWh)
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8.000
10.000
12.000
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2012 2013 2014 2Q15 LTM
Regulated customers Unregulated customers
Historic Sales by Type of Costumer (GWh)
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HIGH QUALITY CLIENTS
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Source: Colbún’s Financial Statements
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1 2
287 352
537 505
20% 21%
36% 37%
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2012 2013 2014 2Q15 LTM
EBITDA (US$ million) & EBITDA Mg (%)
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63 80
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2012 2013 2014 2Q15 LTM
Net Income (US$ million)
MAIN FIGURES AND METRICS
1,409
1,696 1,503
1,357
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2012 2013 2014 2Q15 LTM
Operating Revenues (US$ million)
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106
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27 25
116 115
89
130
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110 120
141
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159
93
136
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1Q11
2Q11
3Q11
4Q11
1Q12
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3Q12
4Q12
1Q13
2Q13
3Q13
4Q13
1Q14
2Q14
3Q14
4Q14
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2Q15
Quarterly EBITDA (US$ million)
HidroA
ysén
116 125 Tax R
eform
HidroA
ysén
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Source: Colbún’s Financial Statements. (*) Calculated as Liabilities/Equity
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MAIN FIGURES AND METRICS
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2.000
2012 2013 2014 2Q15
Debt & Net Debt (US$ million)
Debt Net Debt 5.2
4.1
2.0 1.9
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2012 2013 2014 2Q15 LTM
Net Debt / EBITDA
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71 70
90 87
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100
2012 2013 2014 2Q15
Leverage Ratio* (%)
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600
2012 2013 2014 2Q15 LTM
Cash Flow (US$ million) Capex
EBITDA
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800
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Banks Bonds
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Amortization Structure (US$ million)
Debt Profile 1
BONDS 78%
BANKS 22%
USD 91%
UF 9%
FIXED 100%
Total Debt: MMUS$ 1,877
Avrg. Maturity: 6.0 years
Avrg. USD Interest Rate: 4.9%
Cash: MMUS$ 913
Net Debt: MMUS$ 965
Dividend Policy 30% (As of Jun15)
Avg. MMUS$ 50 for
the next 3 years
Source: Colbún’s Financial Statements
Type Currency Interest Rate
DEBT AND LIQUIDITY
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Avg. Maturity:
6.0 years
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~900 MW OF NEW CAPACITY WITH OVER 2 BILLION INVESTED
2,370
3,278
2.000
2.500
3.000
3.500
Total aDic. 2006
2007 2007 2008 2009 2010 2012 2013 Total aDic. 2013
MW
Quilleco
71 MW
Chiburgo
19 MW
Hornitos
55 MW
Los Pinos
100 MW
San Clemente
5 MW
Santa María I
350 MW
Angostura
316 MW
2006 2015
48% Hydro
1,589 MW
52%
Thermo
1,689 MW
Colbún Installed Capacity
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Angostura Generation (GWh)
116
274
533
377
123
224
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400
600
1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q
2014
2015
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Angostura’s Figures
• Capacity : 316 MW
• Expected Annual Gx.: 1,500 GWh
• 2014 Availability: 97%
• CAPEX (Including Tx. Lines):~ MMUS$760
• Start up: Abr14
• 46 families reallocated
RELEVANT ASSETS FOR THE POWER SYSTEM
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3 4 Santa María I’s Figures
• Capacity: 342 MW
• Expected Annual Gx: 2,500 GWh
• CAPEX (Including the Tx line):~ MMUS$
750
• Start up: Aug12
Santa María I Generation (GWh)
96
1,853
2,616 2,623 2,696
-
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1.000
1.500
2.000
2.500
3.000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2Q15LTM
RM
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VII
VIII
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XIV
X
IV
350 MW
Santa María II Coal
34 MW
La Mina Run-of-the-river / NCRE
~170 MW
San Pedro Reservoir
Coal
Hydro
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GROWTH OPPORTUNITIES IN CHILE
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NCRE under study
500 MW equivalent of water rights under study
• 34 MW of Installed Capacity and 190 GWh of expected annual generation
• Under construction since Dec14 and to date is on schedule
• Expected to be commissioned in early 2017
LA MINA CONSTRUCTION SITE
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Panguipulli Lake
San Pedro reservoir
Riñihue Lake
Project
SAN PEDRO HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT
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• ~170 MW of Installed Capacity and 950
GWh of expected annual generation
• The Company continues with the
socialization process of the project
Compensation Works: Los Lagos Bus Terminal, Panguipulli Information Center, Habilitation and beach equipment
in Panguipulli, Camping in Riñihue
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Santa María II
SANTA MARIA II COAL-FIRED PROJECT
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• 350 MW of Installed Capacity and 2,500 GWh of expected annual generation
• Environmentally Approved
• Social, economic and commercial dimensions of the project are being analyzed, in
order to timely define the beginning of its construction
SEARCHING FOR INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITIES IN THE REGION
Diversification:
Hydrological Conditions
Generation Technology
Fuel Access
Regulatory Risks
Special Focus on Colombia and Peru
Growing Electricity Consumption
Well established regulatory framework
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OUR STRATEGY
Excellence in Human Capital Management
Growth
Operational Excellence
Profitability
Excellence in Sustainability
Be a leading and growing company of
profitable and sustainable power
generation in selected countries of
Latin America
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This document provides information about Colbún S.A. In no case this document constitutes a comprehensive analysis of the financial, production and
sales situation of the company. To evaluate whether to purchase or sell securities of the company, the investor must conduct its own independent
analysis.
This presentation may contain forward-looking statements concerning Colbun's future performance and should be considered as good faith estimates
by Colbún S.A.
In compliance with the applicable rules, Colbún S.A. publishes on its Web Site (www.Colbún.cl) and sends the financial statements of the Company and
its corresponding notes to the Superintendencia de Valores y Seguros, those documents should be read as a complement to this presentation.
INVESTOR RELATIONS TEAM CONTACT Miguel Alarcón María Elena Palma
[email protected] [email protected]
+(562) 2 460 4394 +(562) 2 460 4450
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Regulated
sectors
(concessions)
3 SUB-SECTORS
GENERATION
RELEVANT INSTITUTIONS
Ministry of Energy
Regulator: CNE
Supervisor: SEC
Coordinator: CDEC
TRANSMISSION
DISTRIBUTION
4 SEPARATE GRIDS
Tal-Tal
Arica
Antofagasta
Santiago
Castro Chaitén
Cochrane
Pto. Natales
Pto. Williams
SING
SIC
SEA
SAM
4,340 MW - 25%
17,230 GWh - 25%
15,085 MW - 75%
52,207 GWh - 74%
50 MW - 0%
155 GWh - 0%
100 MW - 0%
291 GWh - 0%
Source: CNE, December 2014
SECTOR SEGMENTATION
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GENERATORS
REGULATED CUSTOMERS
DISTRIBUTION COMPANIES
Regulated Auction Tariffs
UNREGULATED CUSTOMERS
“FREE” CUSTOMERS
Unregulated Auction Tariffs
SPOT MARKET
CDEC
Marginal Cost /Spot Price
36%
21%
17%
26%
Endesa Colbún Gener Others
>15 players
Source: Colbún Dec14
MARKET STRUCTURE
Main Players in the Generation Sector-SIC
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