Desayuno Bice Corredora de Bolsa - Mejor Energía · LTM. SIC COLBUN PROJECTS AGENDA 21 . RM VI VII...

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1 COLBÚN’S PRESENTATION BICE INVERSIONES CORREDORA DE BOLSA S.A. SEPTEMBER 2015

Transcript of Desayuno Bice Corredora de Bolsa - Mejor Energía · LTM. SIC COLBUN PROJECTS AGENDA 21 . RM VI VII...

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COLBÚN’S PRESENTATION

BICE INVERSIONES CORREDORA DE BOLSA S.A.

SEPTEMBER 2015

SIC COLBUN PROJECTS

AGENDA

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250

300

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

USD

/MW

h

An

nu

al P

ow

er

Gen

erat

ion

– S

IC

TWh

Others Diesel-Fuel LNG Coal Gas Hydro Average Spot Market Price

• Development based on hydro + competitive natural gas

• Power purchase agreements signed under fixed prices (set by

regulator for distribution clients)

• LNG re-gasification terminal since 2009

• Coal- fired power plants

• PPA tenders with price indexation

2014

2013

2015

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Spo

t M

arke

t P

rice

U

SD/M

Wh

GENERATION AND PRICE EVOLUTION IN CHILE’S CENTRAL GRID

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Graphs Sources: 1), 2), 3), 4) CNE and CDEC-SIC.

1 2

3 4

SIC OVERVIEW

4

50

100

150

200

250

300

jan-

14

feb-

14

mar

-14

apr-

14

may

-14

jun-

14

jul-1

4

aug-

14

sep-

14

oct-

14

nov-

14

dec-

14

jan-

15

feb-

15

mar

-15

apr-

15

may

-15

jun-

15

jul-1

5

aug-

15

Marginal Cost – Monthly Average (USD/MWh)

0%

20%

40%

SIC Reservoir water level as % of total capacity

aug14-aug15 aug13-aug14

Acc Aug14 155.5

Acc Aug15 117.0 Hydro 38%

Coal 27%

Natural Gas 22%

Diesel 4%

Others 9%

Generation Matrix

Hydro 37%

Coal 29%

Natural Gas 20%

Diesel 7%

Others 7%

Aug14 Aug15

2.3%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7% Electricity Demand Growth (YoY)

2013 2014 2015

0

100

200

300

400

Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar

Melting Forecast at Maule (m3/s)

2015

2014

Source: Colbún.

2

1

0

1.000

2.000

3.000

4.000

5.000

6.000

7.000

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Aug15LTM

Colbún Hydro Generation (GWh)

Acc. Aug14: 3,915

Acc. Aug15: 3,556

HYDROLOGICAL CONDITIONS

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Los Quilos (mm) 2014 2015 144 209

Armerillo (mm) 2014 2015

1,647 1,497

Abanico (mm) 2014 2015 1,665 1,487

Canutillar (mm) 2014 2015

2,599 2,478

Acc. Rainfalls Aug14/Aug15

END OF HIGH COMMODITY PRICES

WTI (US$/Barrel) 1

6

2

HENRY HUB (US$/MMBTU)

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

1,5

2,0

2,5

3,0

3,5

4,0

4,5

5,0

5,5

6,0

68 71

75 78

82 86

90 94

98 102

106 110

115 119

124 128

80 85

90 95

100

107

113

120

127

135

143

152

161

170

181

191

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030

CNE Apr 15 CNE Apr 14 CNE Oct 13 IEA 2012 IEA 2009

6.0%

5.9%

4.9%

4.6%

-28%

4.3%

POWER DEMAND FORECAST FOR CHILE IS DECREASING

1

7

8

0.9 1.2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

MWh/ person

Annual Electricity per Capita Consumption

3.3

8.3

Graphs Sources:)Wolrd Bank.

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ELECTRIC POWER GROWTH POTENTIAL

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SIC COLBUN PROJECTS

AGENDA

9

10

49%

10%

17%

24%

Ownership

Matte Group Angelini Group

Pension Funds Others

Main Figures

• Assets: 6,400

• Equity: 3,400

• Mkt Cap: 4,900

• EBITDA LTM: 505

• Net Debt: 965

Intern. Ratings

• Fitch: BBB

• S&P: BBB-

OVERVIEW

As of Jun15 (US$ million)

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Installed capacity of 3,278 MW ~ 21% Market Share / 25% by Generation Dec2014

Local Ratings

• Fitch: A+

• Humphreys: AA-

Gx. Asset Diversification (MW)

• Committed Controlling Group

• High Standards of Corporate Governance

• 2 out of 9 female directors

Tx. Assets

• ~900 Km

• 27 Substations

Reservoir: 1,057

Run-of-the-river: 532

CCGT/Peaking: 1,347

Coal: 342

Wind Farm: 46*

Biomass: 26* *Through PPAs

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COLBUN IS THE SECOND LARGEST GENERATOR IN THE SIC

With over 3.2 TW of World Class Facilities

766 MW CCGT – 45%

48% Hydro

1,589 MW

52% Thermal

1,689 MW

581 MW Diesel – 35% 342 MW Coal – 20%

1,057 MW Reservoir – 67% 532 MW Run-of-the-river – 33%

3,278 MW

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This graph is shown for illustrative purposes and represents estimated and potential output of our power plants and approximate level of contractual

commitments. Real output from our power plants and variable production costs are dependent on many factors, such as hydrology, plant availability, access

to fuels (coal and LNG) and commodity prices, among others.

(*) Under medium hydrological conditions.

COMMERCIAL STRATEGY

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1,589

342

766

581

8.0

2.5

3.5

4.0

12.0

0

5

10

15

20

0

500

1.000

1.500

2.000

2.500

3.000

3.500

Capacity (MW) Generation (TWh/year) Contracted Sales

MW Capacity (MW) & *Estimated Generation (TWh/year) Breakdown

Hydro

Coal

CCGT Diesel/Gas

Peaking Diesel/Gas

3,278 MW 19.5 TWh 12.0 TWh

1.5

1

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COMMERCIAL POSITION

5,233 4,857

6,655 6,380

1,853 2,616

2,623 2,690 2,242

3,234

3,011 3,074 2,240 546

546 462

6,912 7,224 7,204 7,047

2,893

4,431 3,794 4,047

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

0

2.000

4.000

6.000

8.000

10.000

12.000

2012 2013 2014 2Q15LTM

GWh

Hydro Coal LNG Diesel

Regulated Sales Unregulated Sales EBITDA Mg

Contractual Sales vs. Generation (GWh)

11,094 11,655 10,998

9,805

Graph Source: Colbun. Unregulated Sales 2013 & 2014 excludes sales to Codelco at Marginal Cost

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Long- term flexible gas price, providing flexibility to our LNG production

Good complement to hydro and coal

LEVERAGING OUR COMBINED CYCLES

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2

3,000

2,500 2,500

2,000 2,000

2,500

-

500

1.000

1.500

2.000

2.500

3.000

3.500

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020-2040

Contracted Gas Generation: Metrogas and ENAP (GWh)

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Regasification

Capacity (GWh)

Optional

39%

61%

Sales by Type of Costumer (%)

Unregulated

Regulated

Codelco (A/A+) 29%

Chilectra (BBB+/BBB+

)* 21% CGED (Local

A+) 19%

Saesa (Local AA) 17%

AngloAmerican

(BBB/BBB+) 9%

Others 5%

Sales Volume by Customer (%)

Graphs Sources: 1), 2), 3), 4) Colbun as of June15 LTM. 4) Average monomic prices are calculated by dividing the total amount of sales in US$, by physical energy sales in MWh.

0

50

100

150

Regulated Costumers

Unregulated Costumers

Average Monomic Price (US$/MWh)

0

2.000

4.000

6.000

8.000

10.000

12.000

14.000

2012 2013 2014 2Q15 LTM

Regulated customers Unregulated customers

Historic Sales by Type of Costumer (GWh)

1 2

3 4

HIGH QUALITY CLIENTS

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Source: Colbún’s Financial Statements

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1 2

287 352

537 505

20% 21%

36% 37%

0%

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20%

30%

40%

50%

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2012 2013 2014 2Q15 LTM

EBITDA (US$ million) & EBITDA Mg (%)

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63 80

14

74

102

102

0

50

100

150

200

2012 2013 2014 2Q15 LTM

Net Income (US$ million)

MAIN FIGURES AND METRICS

1,409

1,696 1,503

1,357

0

500

1.000

1.500

2.000

2012 2013 2014 2Q15 LTM

Operating Revenues (US$ million)

16

17 8

106

74

27 25

116 115

89

130

26

110 120

141

117

159

93

136

0

50

100

150

200

1Q11

2Q11

3Q11

4Q11

1Q12

2Q12

3Q12

4Q12

1Q13

2Q13

3Q13

4Q13

1Q14

2Q14

3Q14

4Q14

1Q15

2Q15

Quarterly EBITDA (US$ million)

HidroA

ysén

116 125 Tax R

eform

HidroA

ysén

182

Source: Colbún’s Financial Statements. (*) Calculated as Liabilities/Equity

3 4

1 2

MAIN FIGURES AND METRICS

0

500

1.000

1.500

2.000

2012 2013 2014 2Q15

Debt & Net Debt (US$ million)

Debt Net Debt 5.2

4.1

2.0 1.9

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

2012 2013 2014 2Q15 LTM

Net Debt / EBITDA

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71 70

90 87

0

20

40

60

80

100

2012 2013 2014 2Q15

Leverage Ratio* (%)

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

2012 2013 2014 2Q15 LTM

Cash Flow (US$ million) Capex

EBITDA

3

0

200

400

600

800

15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29

Banks Bonds

2

Amortization Structure (US$ million)

Debt Profile 1

BONDS 78%

BANKS 22%

USD 91%

UF 9%

FIXED 100%

Total Debt: MMUS$ 1,877

Avrg. Maturity: 6.0 years

Avrg. USD Interest Rate: 4.9%

Cash: MMUS$ 913

Net Debt: MMUS$ 965

Dividend Policy 30% (As of Jun15)

Avg. MMUS$ 50 for

the next 3 years

Source: Colbún’s Financial Statements

Type Currency Interest Rate

DEBT AND LIQUIDITY

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Avg. Maturity:

6.0 years

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~900 MW OF NEW CAPACITY WITH OVER 2 BILLION INVESTED

2,370

3,278

2.000

2.500

3.000

3.500

Total aDic. 2006

2007 2007 2008 2009 2010 2012 2013 Total aDic. 2013

MW

Quilleco

71 MW

Chiburgo

19 MW

Hornitos

55 MW

Los Pinos

100 MW

San Clemente

5 MW

Santa María I

350 MW

Angostura

316 MW

2006 2015

48% Hydro

1,589 MW

52%

Thermo

1,689 MW

Colbún Installed Capacity

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Angostura Generation (GWh)

116

274

533

377

123

224

-

200

400

600

1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q

2014

2015

3

1 2

Angostura’s Figures

• Capacity : 316 MW

• Expected Annual Gx.: 1,500 GWh

• 2014 Availability: 97%

• CAPEX (Including Tx. Lines):~ MMUS$760

• Start up: Abr14

• 46 families reallocated

RELEVANT ASSETS FOR THE POWER SYSTEM

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3 4 Santa María I’s Figures

• Capacity: 342 MW

• Expected Annual Gx: 2,500 GWh

• CAPEX (Including the Tx line):~ MMUS$

750

• Start up: Aug12

Santa María I Generation (GWh)

96

1,853

2,616 2,623 2,696

-

500

1.000

1.500

2.000

2.500

3.000

2011 2012 2013 2014 2Q15LTM

SIC COLBUN PROJECTS

AGENDA

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RM

VI

VII

VIII

IX

XIV

X

IV

350 MW

Santa María II Coal

34 MW

La Mina Run-of-the-river / NCRE

~170 MW

San Pedro Reservoir

Coal

Hydro

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GROWTH OPPORTUNITIES IN CHILE

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NCRE under study

500 MW equivalent of water rights under study

• 34 MW of Installed Capacity and 190 GWh of expected annual generation

• Under construction since Dec14 and to date is on schedule

• Expected to be commissioned in early 2017

LA MINA CONSTRUCTION SITE

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24

25

Panguipulli Lake

San Pedro reservoir

Riñihue Lake

Project

SAN PEDRO HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT

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• ~170 MW of Installed Capacity and 950

GWh of expected annual generation

• The Company continues with the

socialization process of the project

Compensation Works: Los Lagos Bus Terminal, Panguipulli Information Center, Habilitation and beach equipment

in Panguipulli, Camping in Riñihue

1 2

3 4

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Santa María II

SANTA MARIA II COAL-FIRED PROJECT

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• 350 MW of Installed Capacity and 2,500 GWh of expected annual generation

• Environmentally Approved

• Social, economic and commercial dimensions of the project are being analyzed, in

order to timely define the beginning of its construction

SEARCHING FOR INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITIES IN THE REGION

Diversification:

Hydrological Conditions

Generation Technology

Fuel Access

Regulatory Risks

Special Focus on Colombia and Peru

Growing Electricity Consumption

Well established regulatory framework

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OUR STRATEGY

Excellence in Human Capital Management

Growth

Operational Excellence

Profitability

Excellence in Sustainability

Be a leading and growing company of

profitable and sustainable power

generation in selected countries of

Latin America

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This document provides information about Colbún S.A. In no case this document constitutes a comprehensive analysis of the financial, production and

sales situation of the company. To evaluate whether to purchase or sell securities of the company, the investor must conduct its own independent

analysis.

This presentation may contain forward-looking statements concerning Colbun's future performance and should be considered as good faith estimates

by Colbún S.A.

In compliance with the applicable rules, Colbún S.A. publishes on its Web Site (www.Colbún.cl) and sends the financial statements of the Company and

its corresponding notes to the Superintendencia de Valores y Seguros, those documents should be read as a complement to this presentation.

INVESTOR RELATIONS TEAM CONTACT Miguel Alarcón María Elena Palma

[email protected] [email protected]

+(562) 2 460 4394 +(562) 2 460 4450

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Regulated

sectors

(concessions)

3 SUB-SECTORS

GENERATION

RELEVANT INSTITUTIONS

Ministry of Energy

Regulator: CNE

Supervisor: SEC

Coordinator: CDEC

TRANSMISSION

DISTRIBUTION

4 SEPARATE GRIDS

Tal-Tal

Arica

Antofagasta

Santiago

Castro Chaitén

Cochrane

Pto. Natales

Pto. Williams

SING

SIC

SEA

SAM

4,340 MW - 25%

17,230 GWh - 25%

15,085 MW - 75%

52,207 GWh - 74%

50 MW - 0%

155 GWh - 0%

100 MW - 0%

291 GWh - 0%

Source: CNE, December 2014

SECTOR SEGMENTATION

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GENERATORS

REGULATED CUSTOMERS

DISTRIBUTION COMPANIES

Regulated Auction Tariffs

UNREGULATED CUSTOMERS

“FREE” CUSTOMERS

Unregulated Auction Tariffs

SPOT MARKET

CDEC

Marginal Cost /Spot Price

36%

21%

17%

26%

Endesa Colbún Gener Others

>15 players

Source: Colbún Dec14

MARKET STRUCTURE

Main Players in the Generation Sector-SIC

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