ejercicios practicas mercado.xls

8/18/2019 ejercicios practicas mercado.xls

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ANALISIS DE LA DEMANDA ACTUAL

CONS CARNE INGRESO

AÑO P/HABIT P/HABIT

1987 25 3001988 26 3201989 27 3201990 26 3301991 29 3401992 31 3601993 30 3701994 34 3801995 35 4001996 34 420

CONS CARNE Y INGRESO X

AÑO P/HABIT LOG C P/HABIT LOG Y1987 25 1.39794001 300 2.47712125 6.13612971

1988 26 1.41497335 320 2.50514998 6.275776411989 27 1.43136376 320 2.50514998 6.275776411990 26 1.41497335 330 2.51851394 6.342912471991 29 1.46239800 340 2.53147892 6.408385511992 31 1.49136169 360 2.55630250 6.534682481993 30 1.47712125 370 2.56820172 6.59566010

1994 34 1.53147892 380 2.57978360 6.65528341

1995 35 1.54406804 400 2.60205999 6.770716201996 34 1.53147892 420 2.62324929 6.88143684

14.69715729 25.46701117 64.87675953

y PROE!IO 1.46971573 2.54670112

"# $1.31730529 %# 1.0943652

&'() &'(y

1.39794001 2.477121255

1.41497335 2.505149978 "*+,&'( " # 0.00481609121.43136376 2.505149978

1.41497335 2.518513941.46239800 2.5314789171.49136169 2.5563025011.47712125 2.568201724

i y=

9√420300−1=0.038093444

X 2

a=(∑

Y ) (∑

X 2 )− (∑

X ) (∑

XY ) N (∑ X 2 )−(∑ X )

2

b= N (∑ XY )− (∑ X ) (∑ Y )

N (∑ X 2)−(∑ X )2

a=YPROM −bXPROM


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1.53147892 2.5797835971.54406804 2.6020599911.53147892 2.62324929

1997 35.4199153893 435.99924481998 36.8991295681 452.6079559

1999 38.4401190158 469.84934992000 40.0454635982 0

i y=

9√420300−1=0.038093444Y

97=420 [1+0.038093444 ]1


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XY

3.46286691 1.95423627 !--*-*+ ","%&- CONS

3.54472045 2.00214958 -+' L-"+ S"-3.58578090 2.04880223 !"+- 05/16/06 T,- 16413.56363010 2.00214958 S"&- 1987 19963.70202970 2.13860790 I*)&- '%-"+,'* 103.81237163 2.224159703.79354535 2.18188720 ","%&- C'-,),-*+ S+. E' +$S+"+,+,)

3.95088419 2.34542767

4.01775768 2.38414613 C $1.317305 0.320844 $4.1057534.01745098 2.34542767 INGPER 1.094365 0.125965 8.687869

37.45103790 21.62699392

R$"- 0.904168 -"* --*-*+ "

"# $1.317305287 & &'() ) &'(y A:+- R$ 0.892189 S.!. --*-*+ "

S.E. ' -(- 0.017767 A;",;- ,*' ),+-,'*

S "- 0.002525 S)


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*),* E,-


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y CONS PESCA!OCARNE INGRESO

AÑO P/HABIT &'(y P/HABIT &'(

1997 50 1.69897000 600 2.778151251998 52 1.71600334 640 2.806179971999 57 1.75587486 645 2.809559712000 50 1.69897000 660 2.819543942001 63 1.79934055 680 2.832508912002 48 1.68124124 690 2.838849092003 46 1.66275783 700 2.845098042004 76 1.88081359 780 2.892094602005 82 1.91381385 790 2.897627092006 85 1.92941893 795 2.90036713

!--*-*+ ","%&- LOGC

-+' L-"+ S"-!"+- 10/03/15 T,- 1235S"&- 1 10I*)&- '%-"+,'* 10 ^^

P'%. ","%&- C'-,),-*+ S+. E' +$S+"+,+,) P'%.

0.0034 C $1.317305 0.320844 $4.105753 0.0034 0.048160950 LOGY 1.094365 0.125965 8.687869 0

1.469716 R$"- 0.904168 -"* --*-*+ " 1.469716

0.05411 A:+- R$ 0.892189 S.!. --*-*+ " 0.05411

$5.046124 S.E. ' -(- 0.017767 A;",;- ,*' ),+-,'* $5.046124

$4.985607 S "- 0.002525 S)


6/109


7/109

CONSO INGRESO !--*-*+ ","%&- LOGC

&'(C &'(Y -+' L-"+ S"-

1.69897 2.77815125 !"+- 03/22/08 T,- 10081.71600334 2.80617997 S"&- 1997 20061.75587486 2.80955971 I*)&- '%-"+,'* 10

1.69897 2.819543941.79934055 2.83250891 ","%&- C'-,),-*+ S+. E' 1.68124124 2.838849091.66275783 2.84509804 C $3.72853 1F410F0371.88081359 2.8920946 LOGY 0.93605 0.4960941.91381385 2.897627091.92941893 2.90036713 R$"- 0.655621 -"* --

A:+- R$ 0.612574 S.!. --*S.E. ' -(- 0.062823 A;",;- ,*'S "- 0.031574 S)$+"

A:+- R$"-

S.E. '-(-,'*

S"--,

L'(&,;-&,''

!%,*$?"+'* +"+


8/109


9/109

!EAN 95 76.107!EAN 96 77.042

0.00018684+$S+"+,+,) P'%.

$2F644F279 0.02953F902F591 0.0045

*-*+ " 1F773F720-*+ " 0.100931),+-,'* $2F520F132,+-,'* $2F459F615

1F523F021

,+,) 0.004528

+$S+"+,+,) P'%.

$2F644F279 0.02953F902F591 0.0045

*-*+ " 1F773F720-*+ " 0.100931

),+-,'* $2F520F132

,+-,'* $2F459F615

1F523F021

,+,) 0.004528

0,00018684 Y 1,9360514


10/109


11/109

"' -"*""' Y Y )""' y

1987 $5 10 & y ) % 100.00 $501988 $4 20 400 $80 'y-)),*

1989 $3 30 900 $90 1998

1990 $2 45 2025 $90 19991991 $1 70 4900 $70 2000

1992 0 90 8100 0 20011993 1 125 15625 125 2002

1994 2 150 22500 300 2003

1995 3 180 32400 540 2004

1996 4 220 48400 880 2005

1997 5 270 72900 1350

1210 208250 2815METODOS DE PROYECCION DE MERCADO

1. EXTRAPOLACION DE LA TENDENCIA HISTORICA DEL CONSUMO TOTAL

AÑO AÑO CONSO

1990 0 66.61991 1 84.9 !--*-*+1992 2 88.6 -+' L-1993 3 78 !"+- 04/251994 4 96.8 S"&- 191995 5 105.2 I*)&- '%1996 6 93.21997 7 111.6 ","%&-

1998 8 88.31999 9 117 C2000 10 115.2 X

'y-)),'*R$"-

2001 11 118.714554 A:+- R$2002 12 122.660918 S.E. ' -( 2003 13 126.607282 S "-2004 14 130.553646 L'( &,;-&,'

2005 15 134.50001 !%,*$?"+2010 20 154.23183

Y )""' XY AÑO AÑO CONSO !--*-*+4435.56 $333 1990 $5 66.6 -+' L-7208.01 $339.6 1991 $4 84.9 !"+- 04/257849.96 $265.8 1992 $3 88.6 S"&- 19

6084 $156 1993 $2 78 I*)&- '%9370.24 $96.8 1994 $1 96.8

11067.04 0 1995 0 105.2 ","%&-

8686.24 93.2 1996 1 93.2


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12454.56 223.2 1997 2 111.6 C

7796.89 264.9 1998 3 88.3 X13689 468 1999 4 117

13271.04 576 2000 5 115.2 R$"-101912.54 434.1 'y-)),'* 1045.4 A:+- R$

S.E. ' -(

2001 6 118.714544 S "-2002 7 122.660908 L'( &,;-&,'2003 8 126.607272 !%,*$?"+2004 9 130.5536362005 10 134.5

S-# 94.26807151 2010 15 154.23182

AÑO CONSO !--*-*+1990 66.6 -+' L-1991 84.9 !"+- 04/251992 88.6 S"&- 19

1993 78 I*)&- '%1994 96.81995 105.2 ","%&-1996 93.21997 111.6 C1998 88.3 X1999 1172000 115.2 R$"-

'y-)),'* A:+- R$S.E. ' -(

2001 118.715364 S "-2002 122.661728 L'( &,;-&,'

2003 126.608092 !%,*$?"+2004 130.5544562005 134.500822010 154.23264

EJERCICIO 1 7 7X Y X CA!R XYAÑO CONSUMO AÑO

1 4.8 1 1.00 4.802 5.6 2 4.00 11.20

3 6.5 3 9.00 19.50

4 7.3 4 16.00 29.205 8.1 5 25.00 40.506 8.5 6 36.00 51.007 9.1 7 49.00 63.708 9.8 8 64.00 78.409 10.4 9 81.00 93.60

10 11.9 10 100.00 119.0082.00000000 55.00000000 385.00 510.90

y PROE!IO 8.20000000 5.50000000


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"# 4.20666667 %# 0.7260606 "#

X Y AÑO CONSO

1 4.8

2 5.63 6.54 7.35 8.16 8.57 9.18 9.89 10.4

10 11.9

EXTRAPOLACION EXPONENCIAL

"" -& -:-&' "*+-,'

3. PRACTICA '%&"),* CONSO

CONSO TOTAL EN EL AÑO 2000 170POBLACION 2000 38.500TASA HISTORICA !E CRECIIENTO !E LA POBLA 2.2TASA !E CREC EN EL PERIO!O !E PROY. 2.6TSA !E CREC !EL CONSO GLOBAL 5.8RESOLCION!EAN!A POR HABIT 2000 4.42TASA HIST !E CREC !EL CONS POR HABIT , 360.00

Qn=Q0 (1+ i)n

Q2010=115 ,2(1+0,056)10=198 ,60

i=n−1√C nC 0−1

i=n−1

√115,2

66 ,6−1=0,056


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)"&)&' -& )'*' ' "%,+"*+- 2001 4.5745454545 39.501 180.70)"&)&' -& )'*' ' "%,+"*+- 2002 4.7392290909 40.528 192.07)"&)&' -& )'*' ' "%,+"*+- 2003 4.9098413382 41.582 204.16


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AÑO CONS

S-# 18.593871003-"*" I*+-"&'

6 263.54546 226.34546 300.74546

7 289.13637 252.34546 326.745468

910

2

153F147F891F704F226 JJJ

A:+- R$ 0.892189 S.!. --*-

S.E. ' -(- 0.017767 A;",;- ,*' ),S "- 0.002525 S)


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95.03636 2.92742 32.46421 0

3.946364 0.925731 4.262968 0.0021

0.668788 -"* --*-*+ " 95.036360.631986 S.!. --*-*+ " 16.004779.709154 A;",;- ,*' ),+-,'* 7.546981

848.409 S)$+"+,+,) 0.002102

Y CA!RA!O AÑO CONSS-# 0.2571

23.04 'y-)),* -"*" I*+-"&'31.36 11 12.193333333

42.25 12 12.919393939 12.4154779394 12.919393939

53.2965.6172.2582.8196.04

108.16 2141.61716.42


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4.2066666667

!--*-*+ ","%&- CONS-+' L-"+ S"-!"+- 05/16/14 T,- 1742S"&- 2001 2010

I*)&- '%-"+,'* 10

","%&- C'-,),-*+ S+. E' +$S+"+,+,) P'%.

C 4.206667 0.17566 23.94773 0X 0.726061 0.02831 25.64658 0

R$"- 0.987983 -"* --*-*+ " 8.2 A:+- R$" 0.986481 S.!. --*-*+ " 2.211586S.E. ' -(-,'* 0.25714 A;",;- ,*' ),+-,'* 0.298468S "- -, 0.52897 S)


18/109


19/109

!--*-*+ ","%&- Y-+' L-"+ S"-

!"+- 04/19/06 T,- 1539

S"&- 1987 1997I*)&- '%-"+,'* 11

","%&- C'-,),-*+ S+. E' +$S+"+,+,) P'%.

C 110 5.606265 19.62091 0

X 25.59091 1.772857 14.43484 0

R$"- 0.958595 -"* --*-*+ " 110*+ " 0.05411

,+-,'* $5.046124 ,'* $4.985607

75.47907,) 0.000024

a=(∑Y ) (∑ N (∑

b= N (∑ XY )

N (∑

a=YPR

r2=

[ N (∑ X

[ N ∑ X 2−(∑


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1 4.9327272727 4.9327272727 4.932727272 5.6587878788 5.6587878788 5.658787883 6.3848484849 6.3848484849 6.38484848

4 7.1109090909 7.1109090909 7.11090909

5 7.836969697 7.836969697 7.83696976 8.563030303 8.563030303 8.56303037 9.2890909091 9.2890909091 9.289090918 10.0151515152 10.0151515152 10.01515159 10.7412121212 10.7412121212 10.7412121

10 11.4672727273 11.4672727273 11.467272711 12.1933333333 12.1933333333 12.193333312 12.9193939394 12.9193939394 12.919393913 13.6454545455 13.6454545455 13.6454545


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14 14.3715151515 14.3715151515

15 15.0975757576 15.0975757576


22/109


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EKERC HECTOR

"' -"*""' Y

1987 0 10 & y ) !--*-*+ ","%&- Y

1988 1 20 -+' L-"+ S"-1989 2 30 !"+- 04/19/06 T,- 155

1990 3 45 S"&- 1987 19971991 4 70 I*)&- '%-"+,'* 11

1992 5 90

1993 6 125 ","%&- C'-,),-*+

1994 7 150

1995 8 180 C $17.95455

1996 9 220 X 25.59091

a= (∑Y ) (∑ X 2

)−(∑ X ) (∑ XY ) N (∑ X 2 )−(∑ X )

2

b= N (∑ XY )− (∑ X ) (∑ Y )

N (∑ X 2)−(∑ X )2

a=YPROM −bXPROM

r2=

[ N (∑ XY )−(∑ X ) (∑ Y ) ]2

[ N ∑ X 2−(∑ X )2 ][ N ∑Y 2−(∑ Y )2 ]


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27/109

2.$ PRACTICA !IRIGI!A

-"*"

"' Y

1987 150 1988 26

1989 341990 42

1991 65

S+. E' +$S+"+,+,) P'%. 1992 86

1993 98

10.48836 $1.711854 0.1211 1994 105

1.772857 14.43484 0 1995 120

AÑO19901991199219931994

19951996199719981999

2000


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AÑO CONS

!--*-*+ ","%&- CONS 1987 654F545F454F268

-+' L-"+ S"- 1988 217F090F909F069

!"+- 03/22/08 T,- 1037 1989 368F727F272F711

S"&- 1987 1997 1990 520F363F636F353

I*)&- '%-"+,'* 11 1991 671F999F999F994

","%&- C'-,),-*+ S+. E' +$S+"+,+,) P'%. 1992 823F636F363F636

C $30123.60 1F389F362 $2F168F160 0.0000 1993 975F272F727F278

X 15.16364 0.697470 2F174F091 0.0000 1994 112F690F909F092

R$"- 0.981315 -"* --*-*+ " 8F236F364 1995 127F854F545F456

0.979239 S.!. --*-*+ " 5F076F864 1996 14F301F818F182

7.315129 A;",;- ,*' ),+-,'* 6F980F732 1997 158F181F818F185

4F816F000 S)


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33/109


34/109


35/109

CONS CONS> CONS>S RESI! X XS

15 654F545F454F268 654F545F454F268 845F454F545F732 1987 198726 217F090F909F069 217F090F909F069 429F090F909F313 1988 1988

34 368F727F272F711 368F727F272F711 $287F272F727F106 1989 1989

42 520F363F636F353 520F363F636F353 $100F363F636F353 1990 199065 671F999F999F994 671F999F999F994 $219F999F999F944 1991 1991

86 823F636F363F636 823F636F363F636 363F636F363F636 1992 199298 975F272F727F278 975F272F727F278 0.472727272176 1993 1993

105 112F690F909F092 112F690F909F092 $769F090F909F202 1994 1994

120 127F854F545F456 127F854F545F456 $785F454F545F621 1995 1995

145 14F301F818F182 14F301F818F182 19F818F181F796 1996 1996

170 158F181F818F185 158F181F818F185 118F181F818F154 1997 1997

173.345 1998


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Y )""' XY AÑO AÑO CONSO4435.56 $333 1990 $5 66.67208.01 $339.6 1991 $4 84.97849.96 $265.8 1992 $3 88.6

6084 $156 1993 $2 789370.24 $96.8 1994 $1 96.8

11067.04 0 1995 0 105.28686.24 93.2 1996 1 93.2

12454.56 223.2 1997 2 111.67796.89 264.9 1998 3 88.3

13689 468 1999 4 117

13271.04 576 2000 5 115.2101912.54 434.1 'y-)),'* 1045.4

2001 6 118.7145442002 7 122.660908

2003 8 126.6072722004 9 130.5536362005 10 134.5

S-# 94.2680715111

AÑO CONSO1990 66.61991 84.91992 88.61993 781994 96.8

1995 105.21996 93.21997 111.61998 88.31999 1172000 115.2

'y-)),'*

2001 118.7153642002 122.661728

2003 126.608092

2004 130.5544562005 134.50082


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)""' y AÑO CONS

% 25.00 $50 S-# 18.593871

% 16.00 $80 'y-)),* -"*" I*+-"&'1.4149733 2.50515 !"+- 10/19/07 T,- 154

1.4313638 2.50515 S"&- 1990 19991.4149733 2.51851 I*)&- '%-"+,'* 10

1.4623980 2.531481.4913617 2.55630 ","%&- C'-,),-*+

1.4771213 2.568201.5314789 2.57978 C $1.3173051.5440680 2.60206 Y 1.0943651.5314789 2.62325

R$"- 0.904168 A:+- R$ 0.892189S.E. ' -(- 0.017767S "- 0.002525

L'( &,;-&,'' 27.23062!%,*$?"+ 2.544027

!--*-*+ ","%&- CONS-+' L-"+ S"-

!"+- 04/25/06 T,- 2226S"&- 1990 2000I*)&- '%-"+,'* 11

","%&- C'-,),-*+ S+. E' +$S+"+,+,) P'%.

C JJJ 5.476701 13.74998 0X JJJ 0.925731 4.262968 0.0021

R$"- 0.668788 -"* --*-*+ " 95.03636 A:+- R$ 0.631986 S.!. --*-*+ " 16.00477S.E. ' -(- 9.709154 A;",;- ,*' ),+-,'* 7.546981S "- 848.409 S)


44/109

!--*-*+ ","%&- CONS-+' L-"+ S"-!"+- 04/25/06 T,- 2228S"&- 1990 2000

I*)&- '%-"+,'* 11

","%&- C'-,),-*+ S+. E' +$S+"+,+,) P'%.

C 95.036360 2.92742 32.46421 0X 3.946364 0.925731 4.262968 0.0021

R$"- 0.668788 -"* --*-*+ " 95.03636 A:+- R$ 0.631986 S.!. --*-*+ " 16.00477S.E. ' -(- 9.709154 A;",;- ,*' ),+-,'* 7.546981S "- 848.409 S)


45/109


46/109


47/109

!--*-*+ ","%&- Y

-+' L-"+ S"-5 !"+- 04/29/07 T,- 1131

S"&- 1990 1999I*)&- '%-"+,'* 10

S+. E' +$S+"+,+,) P'%. ","%&- C'-,),-*+ S+. E' +$S+"+,+,) P'%.

0.320844 $4.105753 0.0034 C $1F330F041 0.324328 $4F100F915 0.00340.125965 8.687869 0 LOGY 1F099F293 0.127348 8F632F223 0.0000

-"* --*-*+ " 1.469716 R$"- 0.903048 -"* --*-*+ " 1F469F200 S.!. --*-*+ " 0.05411 A:+- R$ 0.890929 S.!. --*-*+ " 0.054352 A;",;- ,*' ),+-,'* $5.046124 S.E. ' -(- 0.017950 A;",;- ,*' ),+-,'* $5F025F560 S)$+"+,+,) 0.000024 !%,*$?"+ 2F539F184 P'%@>$+"+,+,) 0.000025

YPRO M −bXPROM


48/109


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56/109

Metodo Serie de Tie!"o AÑO I*,-*' P,"-" -"*'

1987 2 3 41988 5 6 71989 7 10 101990 10 17 161991 13 20 28

1992 19 34 341993 27 39 481994 26 44 581995 38 51 701996 44 67 811997 51 79 107

P'-,'& '-,' . I*,)-

A' E+"),* !-"*" ',& )-*+"' E+"),'*"&1987 I*,-*' 2

P,"-" 3-"*' 4 2.5 2.88 1.39O+'' 1 3.25 3.63 0.28

1988I*,-*' 5 4 4.38 1.14P,"-" 6 4.75 4.88 1.23-"*' 7 5 5.25 1.33O+'' 2 5.5 2.75 0.73

1989

CE1,1=11,85(1593 ,771554 ,62 )0,736

CE1,1=12 ,067


57/109

I*,-*' 7 3.63 1.93

P,"-" 10 7.25 7.38 1.36-"*' 10 7.5 7.88 1.27

O+'' 3 8.25 9.13 0.331990

I*,-*' 10 10 10.75 0.93

P,"-" 17 11.5 11.38 1.49-"*' 16 11.25 11.63 1.38O+'' 2 12 12.38 0.16

1991I*,-*' 13 12.75 14.25 0.91P,"-" 20 15.75 16.63 1.20-"*' 28 17.5 18.25 1.53

O+'' 9 19 20.75 0.431992

I*,-*' 19 22.5 23.25 0.82P,"-" 34 24 23.25 1.46-"*' 34 22.5 23.50 1.45O+'' 3 24.5 25.13 0.12

1993I*,-*' 27 25.75 27.50 0.98P,"-" 39 29.25 30.25 1.29-"*' 48 31.25 31.13 1.54O+'' 11 31 31.63 0.35

1994I*,-*' 26 32.25 33.50 0.78P,"-" 44 34.75 36.13 1.22-"*' 58 37.50 39.00 1.49O+'' 22 40.50 41.38 0.53

1995 I*,-*' 38 42.25 43.75 0.87P,"-" 51 45.25 45.13 1.13-"*' 70 45 45.75 1.53O+'' 21 46.5 48.50 0.43

1996I*,-*' 44 50.5 51.88 0.85P,"-" 67 53.25 54.13 1.24-"*' 81 55 55.88 1.45O+'' 28 56.75 58.25 0.48

1997I*,-*' 51 59.75 63.00 0.81

P,"-" 79 66.25 66.88 1.18-"*' 107 67.5O+'' 33


58/109

N Y LA INFLUENCIA

IMULTANEAMENTE.

"+' INGRESO1 572 59

3 494 62

5 51

+$S+"+,+,) P'%. 6 50

7 55

0.225832 0.8264 8 48

1F892F136 0.0910 9 52

1F065F098 0.3146 10 4211 61

-*+ " 6F275F000 12 57-*+ " 8F986F100

,+-,'* 6F409F322 ,'* 6F530F549

1F094F027+,) 0.003895

ESTRATOS

INGRESO ESTRATO 1PON!ERA!O ELASTICI!A! >RXELAST

252.10084034 0.500 0.1260504202

352.94117647 $0.300 $0.0705882353

428.57142857 0.427 0.1075268817 ESTRATOII521.00840336 2.200 0.57310924371554.6218487 0.7360983103

METODO P

ESTRATOSESTRATO 1

ESTRATOII


59/109

O+'' TOTAL1 102 203 302 459 70

3 9011 12522 15021 18028 22033 270

I*,-*' P,"-" -"*' O+''1987 1.39 0.281988 1.14 1.23 1.33 0.331989 1.02 1.36 1.27 0.331990 0.93 1.49 1.38 0.161991 0.91 1.20 1.53 0.431992 0.82 1.46 1.45 0.121993 0.98 1.29 1.54 0.351994 0.78 1.22 1.49 0.531995 0.87 1.13 1.53 0.43


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1996 0.85 1.24 1.45 0.48

1997 0.81 1.18 SA !ETOTAL 9.10498 12.80321 14.3609 3.4459 PROE!IOS

PROE!IO 0.91050 1.28032 1.43609 0.34459 3.97151

COO SA !EBE SER 4F ENTONCES LA SA 3F97151 !EBE AKSTARSE.

SA !E >RECENCIA NEOS

PROE!IOS RELATIA ALORES0.91050 0.2292575802 0.9170303209

1.2803206923 0.3223764968 1.28950598731.4360945359 0.3615993465 1.4463973859

0.3445941139 0.0867665765 0.3470663063.97151 1 4

P'y-)+"*' "" -& "' 1998L" -"*" (&'%"& 'y-)+"" - - 263F540 *,"- -*+'*)-263F540/4 # 65.885

E+"),* !-"*/-+"),* >R !-"* X >RI*,-*' 65.885 0.9170303209 60.419P,"-" 65.885 1.2895059873 84.959-"*' 65.885 1.4463973859 95.296O+'' 65.885 0.347066306 22.866

263.540


61/109

4. PRACTICA 5.$ PRACTICA !IRIGI!A.

INGRESOS CANTI!A! !EAN!A AÑOS POR PERSONA !EAN!A!A P'%&"),* 129

POR PERSONA 139

P-),' )+-. @ *,"- @y Nº Hab (z) 109

1995 110 220 4.009 1381996 118 240 4.113 114

1997 121 250 4.220 119

1998 127 255 4.330 146

1999 134 262 4.442 125

2000 140 265 4.558 119

2001 147 280 4.676 105

2002 154 285 4.798 147

2003 162 290 4.923 128

2004 169 300 5.051

PROYECCION EN BASE AL PRESPESTO !EL CONSI!OR

INGRESO CONSO NERO >R CONSO CONSO INGRESO

>AILIAR TOTAL >AILIAS >AILIAR PON!ERA! PON!ERA! ELASTICI!A

6 85 150 0.29069767 0.5666667 0.16472868 1.74418605 1.411764718 110 132 0.25581395 0.8333333 0.21317829 2.04651163 0.10322581

10 106 124 0.24031008 0.8548387 0.20542636 2.40310078 0.3173241912 100 110 0.21317829 0.9090909 0.19379845 2.55813953 2.25

401 516 1 0.77713178 8.75193798

14 115 92 1.25

ESUPUESTO DEL CONSUMIDOR

INGRESO CONSO NERO >R CONSO CONSO INGRESO>AILIAR TOTAL >AILIAS >AILIAR PON!ERA! PON!ERA!SEGENTO

1 20 37.5 75 0.2697842 0.5000 0.1349 5.39572 30 49.5 76 0.2733813 0.6513 0.1781 8.20143 40 49.6 72 0.2589928 0.6889 0.1784 10.35974 50 49.5 55 0.1978417 0.9000 0.1781 9.8921

186.1 278 1 0.6694 33.8489

55 46 46 1.0000


62/109

)'* -* -& "' 1

C 1,1=C 1,0 [Y 1,1Y 1,0 ]e


63/109


64/109

INGRESO PRECIO !--*-*+ ","%&- CONS117 20 -+' L-"+ S"-115 20 !"+- 03/22/08 T,- 122998 15 S"&- 1995 2004

146 22 I*)&- '%-"+,'* 10125 18 ","%&- C'-,),-*+ S+. E' 114 15 C 95.1954 1F214F332128 20 ING 1.22652 0.087076

98 19 R$"- 0.961241 -"* -118 23 0.956396 S.!. --

94 18 5.142370 A;",;- ,*'

126 24 2F115F517 S)


65/109


66/109


67/109

CONS CONS> AÑOS CONS>S220 230F112F226F173 1995 230240 239F924F360F592 1996 237

250 243F603F910F999 1997 247

255 250F963F011F813 1998 252

+$S+"+,+,) P'%. 262 25F954F862F943 1999 258

7F839F321 0.0001 265 266F907F730F244 2000 266

1F408F554 0.0000 280 275F493F347F861 2001 274

*-*+ " 2F647F000 285 284F078F965F478 2002 283

-*+ " 2F462F632 290 293F891F099F897 2003 292

),+-,'* 6F289F762 300 302F476F717F513 2004 302

,+-,'* 6F350F279 2005 311

1F984F025 2006 320

,+,) 0.000001 2007 329


68/109


69/109


70/109

--+" 4ING INGS )'+"'" &,*-"& -'*-*),"&

110 110.0000 1995 ,# 1F0488697 ,#1F026003955118 116.0000 1996121 123.9312 1997

127 127.6720 1998134 132.7571 1999140 139.4993 2000147 145.8798 2001154 153.0015 2002162 160.3257 2003

169 168.5876 2004 'y '%&"

176.1092 2005 167.385 177.259 5182 1F612F619

183.3504 2006 173.870 185.922 5317 1F701F853

190.5916 2007 180.355 195.008 5455 1F794F472

!--*-*+ ","%&- ING-+' L-"+ S"-!"+- 03/22/08 T,- 1252S"&- 1995 2004I*)&- '%-"+,'* 10

","%&- C'-,),-*+ S+. E' +$S+"+,+,) P'%.

C $12828.25000 3F320F916 $3F862F866 0.0000X 6.48485 0.166087 3F904F485 0.0000

R$"- 0.994780 -"* --*-*+ " 1F382F000 A:+- R$"- 0.994127 S.!. --*-*+ " 1F968F530S.E. ' -(-,'* 1F508F561 A;",;- ,*' ),+-,'* 3F837F047S "- -, 1F820F606 S)


71/109


72/109


73/109

--+" 5!EAN

!--*-*+ ","%&- !EAN 129-+' L-"+ S"- 139

!"+- 03/22/08 T,- 1352 109

S"&- 2001 2012 138I*)&- '%-"+,'* 12 114

119

","%&- C'-,),-*+ S+. E' +$S+"+,+,) P'%. 146125

C 39.72687000 2F671F200 1F487F229 0.1711 119

ING 0.390906 0.246639 1F584F932 0.1474 105

PREC 2F108F466 1F336F169 1F577F993 0.1490 147

128

R$"- 0.545200 -"* --*-*+ " 1F265F000

A:+- R$ 0.444133 S.!. --*-*+ " 1F393F818S.E. ' -(- 1F039F181 A;",;- ,*' ),+-,'* 7F732F232

S "- 9F719F083 S)


74/109


75/109


76/109

AÑOS

!EAN> !EAN>S ING INGS PREC127F632F211F815 1995 127F632F211F815 117 117 20126F850F399F342 1996 128F348F873F248 115 118F833F333F333 20

109F662F664F402 1997 128F975F678F694 98 120F151F485F068 15

14F318F542F424 1998 128F489F307F232 146 118F799F231F041 22126F542F530F139 1999 129F463F240F877 125 12F287F463F784 18115F917F164F186 2000 129F821F407F774 114 125F059F757F599 15

131F932F180F416 2001 129F433F376F914 128 12F558F848F068 20118F096F527F538 2002 12F961F207F079 98 12F732F602F569 19

134F348F515F403 2003 129F025F314F739 118 124F929F384F132 23

114F424F436F808 2004 129F103F029F191 94 123F947F402F034 18

139F584F231F079 128F140F938F987 126 11F949F494F894 24

129F823F714F632 128F305F146F689 128 118F312F385F909 19

128F217F316F813 117F911F420F149

128F083F956F473 1F167F354F937127F950F596F134 115F559F567F251


77/109


78/109


79/109

-'*-*),"&PRECS !EAN!A &'(-"* INGRESO &'(,*( PRECIO

20 129 2.11058971 117 2.06818586 2020 139 2.14301480 115 2.06069784 20

20 109 2.03742650 98 1.99122608 15

20 138 2.13987909 146 2.16435286 2220 114 2.05690485 125 2.09691001 1820 119 2.07554696 114 2.05690485 15

20 146 2.16435286 128 2.10720997 2020 125 2.09691001 98 1.99122608 19

20 119 2.07554696 118 2.07188201 23

20 105 2.02118930 94 1.97312785 18

20 147 2.16731733 126 2.10037055 24

20 128 2.10720997 128 2.10720997 19

20

2020


80/109


81/109


82/109

&'(-) &'(-"* &'(,*( &'(-) !--*-*+ 1.30103000 2.11058971 2.06818586 1.30103000 -+' L-"1.30103000 2.14301480 2.06069784 1.30103000 !"+- 03/22/0

1.17609126 2.03742650 1.99122608 1.17609126 S"&-@":

1.34242268 2.13987909 2.16435286 1.34242268 I*)&- '%1.25527251 2.05690485 2.09691001 1.255272511.17609126 2.07554696 2.05690485 1.17609126 ","%&-

1.30103000 2.16435286 2.10720997 1.301030001.27875360 2.09691001 1.99122608 1.27875360 C

1.36172784 2.07554696 2.07188201 1.36172784 LOGING

1.25527251 2.02118930 1.97312785 1.25527251 LOGPREC

1.38021124 2.16731733 2.10037055 1.38021124

1.27875360 2.10720997 2.10720997 1.27875360 R$"-

A:+- R$

S.E. ' -(-S "-

L'( &,;-&,''!%,*$?"+


83/109


84/109


85/109

,"%&- LOG!E + S"-

8 T,- 1420

+- 1 12

"+,'* 12 "+- ":+,*( -*',*+ LOG!E LOG!E>211F058F971 210F581F671F934

C'-,),-*+ S+. E' +$S+"+,+,) P'%. 21F430F148 210F295F120F122

20F374F265 203F800F466F7460.914896 0.387791 2F359F247 0.0427 213F987F909 215F532F710F464

0.382680 0.222004 1F723F756 0.1188 205F690F485 210F275F955F672

0.307039 0.197178 1F557F165 0.1539 207F554F696 206F313F864F228

216F435F286 212F075F047F949

0.562546 -"* --*-*+ " 2F099F657 209F691F001 206F952F600F178

0.465334 S.!. --*-*+ " 0.048115 207F554F696 212F586F776F276

0.035182 A;",;- ,*' ),+-,'* $3F644F245 20F211F893 205F539F055F6170.011140 S)


86/109


87/109


88/109

LOG!ES LOGING LOGINGS LOGPREC LOGPRES210F581F671F934 206F818F586 206F818F586 130F103 130F103210F830F567F937 206F069F784 207F468F987F833 130F103 130F103

211F039F424F411 199F122F608 20F794F016F278 117F609F126 130F103210F728F378F539 216F435F286 207F379F812F839 134F242F268 130F103

21F106F603F903 209F691F001 208F596F559F716 125F527F251 130F103

211F152F517F734 205F690F485 209F319F680F615 117F609F126 130F103

210F908F764F794 210F720F997 209F501F327F728 130F103 130F103

210F945F697F324 199F122F608 210F093F221F252 12F787F536 130F103

210F637F401F611 207F188F201 20F919F449F874 136F172F784 130F103

210F634F539F539 197F312F785 208F806F646F087 125F527F251 130F103210F172F703F418 210F037F055 207F086F947F007 138F021F124 130F103

210F219F088F775 210F720F997 206F549F617F377 12F787F536 130F103210F190F302F213 206F340F122F878 130F103210F114F653F751 205F838F663F092 130F10321F003F900F529 205F337F203F305 130F103


89/109


90/109


91/109

LOG!ES2.10581671932.1083056794

2.11039424412.1072837854

2.1106603903

2.1115251773

2.1090876479

2.1094569732

2.1063740161

2.10634539542.1017270342

2.10219088782.1019030221 126.445402.1011465375 126.225342.1003900529 126.00566


92/109


93/109


94/109

A B

AÑOS

0 36,750 90,500 -53,7501 36,750 17,195 19,5552 36,750 17,195 19,5553 36,750 19,457 17,2934 36,750 19,457 17,2935 36,750 22,172 14,5786 36,750 22,172 14,578

AN (."* 11 192F222.27 172F002.62 20F219.65"* 25 145F214.83 146F269.95 @1F055.12

AN ( 11 20F219.65TIR ( 24.0893

S- +,-*-* ' 'y-)+' "&+-*"+,'*" --" ,,("),* y *" ("* ,,("),*)'* &' (+- &:' - '*'

A B

AÑOS

0 -10,500 -2,200 -8,3001 1,260 540 7202 1,680 720 9603 1,680 720 9604 2,310 990 1,320

5 2,310 990 1,3206 3,360 1,440 1,9207 3,360 1,440 1,9208 3,360 1,440 1,920

AN (."* 11 @2F084.00 1F406.86 @3F490.86"* 25 @4F972.72 168.83 @5F141.55

AN ( 11 @3F490.86TIR ( $3.4366

MOLIENDAA MANO

MOLIENDAGRANDE

DIFERENCIAL

MOLIENDA

A MANO

MOLIENDA

GRANDE

DIFERENC

IAL


95/109

1. Se tiene dos po!e"tos #$tenati%os, &na 'an epesa teti$ ! &na pe*&e+a epes

#/

0 -45000 -80001 6300 10852 8100 13953 8100 13954 11700 20155 11700 20156 15300 26357 15300 26358 15300 2635

Si e$ "osto de "apita$ es 12,5 se pide "a$"&$a e$ #N,, ',#N', '.e a"&edo a e$$o de"idi "&:$ de $os po!e"tos se debe;a

=S#=?@

>=AB=#=>=S#=?@


96/109


97/109

a teti$ "on $os s'tes $&os.

e"&ta.


98/109

CANTI!A! INGRESO AÑOS !EAN/PERS POR PERS. Y#97.53147M1.211

1990 220 110 PROYECCION1991 240 116 CONS POT 97 284.0818341992 250 1211993 255 127 CONS 2000 312.48836671994 262 134 CONS 2001 323.2362115351995 265 140 CONS 2002 334.52144861181996 280 147 CONS 2003 346.37094754231997 285 154 CONS TOT 2000 318738134.0341998 290 162 CONS TOT 2001 336294954.4811999 300 169 CONS TOT 2002 354996837.4384

CONS TOT 2003 374923052.9095!--*-*+ ","%&- !EAN-+' L-"+ S"-

!"+- 06/27/06 T,- 1250S"&- 1990 1999I*)&- '%-"+,'* 10

","%&- C'-,),-*+ S+. E' +$S+"+,+,) P'%.

C 97.5314700 12.12442 8.044214 0INGRES 1.211366000 0.087046 13.91646 0

R$"- 0.960331 -"* --*-*+ " 264.7 A:+- R$ 0.955372 S.!. --*-*+ " 24.62632S.E. ' -(- 5.202386 A;",;- ,*' ),+-,'* 6.312968

S "- 216.5185 S)


99/109

1 4.8 !"+- 03/17/08 T,- 21552 5.6 S"&- 2001 20103 6.5 I*)&- '%-"+,'* 104 7.35 8.1 ","%&- C'-,),-*+6 8.57 9.1 C 4F206F6678 9.8 X 0.7260619 10.4

10 11.9 R$"- 0.987983 A:+- R$" 0.986481S.E. ' -(-,'*0.257140S "- -, 0.528970L'( &,;-&,'' 0.507661!%,*$?"+'* + 1F482F912

2. ANALISIS !E CORRELACION Y REGRESION LINEAL !E LA S

POBLACION CONSO !--*-*+ ","%&- CONSTOTAL TOTAL -+' L-"+ S"-

3.1 4.8 !"+- 03/17/08 T,- 22103.45 5.6 S"&- 2001 20103.84 6.5 I*)&- '%-"+,'* 104.28 7.34.75 8.1 ","%&- C'-,),-*+5.28 8.55.88 9.1 C 1F418F667

6.55 9.8 POB 1F289F7177.29 10.48.16 11.9 R$"- 0.973323

A:+- R$" 0.969989S.E. ' -(-,'*0.383129S "- -, 1F174F305L'( &,;-&,'' $3F479F841!%,*$?"+'* + 0.661466

3.$ ERI>ICACION !E LA CORRELACION !OBLE LOGARITICA CON LOS !

POBLACION LOG P CONSO LOG CTOTAL TOTAL

3.1 0.49136169 4.8 0.681241243.45 0.53781910 5.6 0.748188033.84 0.58433122 6.5 0.812913364.28 0.63144377 7.3 0.863322864.75 0.67669361 8.1 0.908485025.28 0.72263392 8.5 0.929418935.88 0.76937733 9.1 0.959041396.55 0.81624130 9.8 0.99122608

7.29 0.86272753 10.4 1.017033348.16 0.91169016 11.9 1.07554696


100/109

LOG P LOG C!--*-*+ ","%&

0.49136169 0.6812412374 -+' L-"+ S0.5378191 0.748188027 !"+- 03/17/08 T,

0.58433122 0.8129133566 S"&- 2001 2010.63144377 0.8633228601 I*)&- '%-"+,0.67669361 0.90848501890.72263392 0.9294189257 ","%&-0.76937733 0.9590413923

0.8162413 0.9912260757 C0.86272753 1.0170333393 LOGP0.91169016 1.0755469614

R$"- A:+- R$"-S.E. ' -(-,'*S "- -,

L'( &,;-&,''!%,*$?"+'* +"

4. PROYECCION Y EXTRAPOLACION !E LA TEN!ENCIA HISTORICA

# 0F1131PROYECION !E LA POBLACION TOTAL Y CON AÑO POBL TOT D#4F21M0.726+

11 9.06 12.1912 10.05 12.9213 11.16 13.65

0.11353318 14 12.39 14.3715 13.75 15.10

0.11111111 16 15.26 15.8217 16.94 16.5518 18.81 17.2819 20.87 18.0020 23.17 18.73

!--*-*+ ","%&- CONS-+' L-"+ S"-

!"+- 03/17/08 T,- 2258S"&- 2001 2010I*)&- '%-"+,'* 10

","%&- C'-,),-*+ S+. E' +$S+"+,+,) P'%.

C 4F206F667 0.175660 2F394F773 0.0000X 0.726061 0.028310 2F564F658 0.0000

R$"- 0.987983 -"* --*-*+ " 8F200F000 A:+- R$ 0.986481 S.!. --*-*+ " 2F211F586S.E. ' -(- 0.257140 A;",;- ,*' ),+-,'* 0.298468

S "- 0.528970 S)


101/109

!%,*$?"+ 1F482F912 P'%@>$+"+,+,) 0.000000


102/109

PROYECCION ING PROY POBLAC366X 2000 177.45 1020000

2001 186.32 10404002002 195.64 10612082003 205.42 1082432

INGRESO >AILIAR CONSO APARENTE A B C A B

30 14 3.534.5 15.7 3.939.7 17.6 4.2 0.95 4.4

45.6 19.7 4.752.5 22 5.160.3 24.7 5.669.4 27.6 6.279.9 30.9 6.891.3 34.7 7.5

105.5 38.8 8.3 1.15 9.2

N!ENCIA HISTORICA !EL CONSO APARENTE


103/109


104/109

&- LOGC"-

- 2222

0'* 10

C'-,),-*+ S+. E' +$S+"+,+,) P'%.

0.293726 0.037130 7F910F677 0.00000.863632 0.052071 1F658F554 0.0000

0.971739 -"* --*-*+ " 0.8986420.968207 S.!. --*-*+ " 0.1234110.022005 A;",;- ,*' ),+-,'* $4F618F2440.003874 S)


105/109


106/109

C TOTAL4.85.6

1.15 6.5

7.38.18.59.19.8

10.42.55 11.9


107/109


108/109


109/109

POBLAS3.1

3.5363.8

4.23

4.725.225.816.487.228.039.039.9

10.77

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