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Las reformas del futuro: un nuevo modelo productivo para España

Ramon XifréESCI–Universitat Pompeu Fabra

Public-Private Sector Research Center, IESE Business Schoolramon.xifre@esci.upf.edu

Jordi SalvadorPublic-Private Sector Research Center, IESE Business School

jsalvadors@gmail.com

Madrid. 12 de mayo 2016. Fundación Alternativas.

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Guión

1. La recuperación: ¿cómo se está recuperando España de la crisis?

2. Las reformas adoptadas en el pasado: ¿cómo han determinado la recuperación?

3. Las reformas del futuro: • Revisión de propuestas recientes para España y

de contribuciones de fondo• Alternativas para un modelo de crecimiento más

sostenible e inclusivo

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1. La recuperación

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1. La recuperación

i. Modelo de crecimientoii. Mercado laboraliii. Dinámica empresarialiv. Devaluación interna

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1. Recuperación. Modelo de crecimiento - I

Crecimiento del PIB, QoQ Saldo Balanza Cuenta Corriente %PIB

• Estabilización de finanzas públicas• Recapitalización y reforma del sistema financiero

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1. Recuperación. Modelo de crecimiento - II

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.0

2.2

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

EU28 EU15 Spain

Contribución Dda. Doméstica y Exterior al PIB

Saldo comercial Energético / No energ. % PIB

Saldo comercial como % PIB

Gasto total en I+D como % PIB

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1. Recuperación. Mercado Laboral

Table 2. Unemployment variation in Spain. Thousands.

2008-Q2 2010-Q3 2012-Q3 2008-Q2 2010-Q3 2012-Q3 2015-Q3 2015-Q3 Total -1801.0 -1083.4 290.2 -2,571.3 Employers and self-employed -496.0 -24.4 61.7 -510.1 Employees w. permanent c. -182.6 -672.9 -232.6 -867.5 Employees w. temporary c. -1122.3 -386.1 461.2 -1,193.7

Source. INE.

Tasa de paro (%) y Población activa (M) Parados según duración de desempleo (M y %)

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1. Recuperación. Dinámica empresarial.

Altas y Bajas de empresas Altas netas de empresas por person. jurídica

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1. Recuperación. Devaluación interna (REER Ecfin)

80

85

90

95

100

105

110

115

120

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

France Germany Italy Netherlands Spain

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

France Germany Italy Netherlands Spain

80

85

90

95

100

105

110

115

120

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

France Germany Italy Netherlands Spain

80

85

90

95

100

105

110

115

120

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

France Germany Italy Netherlands Spain

TCER según CLU, total economía

TCER según deflactor exportaciones

TCER según CLU, manufacturas

TCER según deflactor del PIB

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2. Las reformas del pasado

Proyecto www.SpanishReforms.com

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EC OECD IMF L14/2011 RD4/2013 L14/2013 OL8/2013 L22/2014 L5/2015 RD1067/2015 L25/2015 L30/2015

1.1 R+D and the knowledge society x1.1.1 Tax incentives Incentives R&D x x

1.1.2 Public R + D State Resea rch Agency, incentives , mobi l i ty

x x x x

1.1.3 Public – private cooperation

Knowledge transfer x x

1.2 Internationalization

1.2.1 FinancingAccess to finance SME, enhance non-bank financing, concentrate support schemes

x x x x

1.2.2 Barriers to growth

Eliminating possible policies and regulations barriers, labour regulations, addressing thresholds on firm size in the tax code

x x x x

1.2.3 Linkages Networks SME & MNF x x x1.3 Enterpreneurship

1.3.1 Ease of firms creations One-stop-shop, Ease business start-ups, one-in one-out principle x x x x

1.3.2 FinancingInsolvency regime, limiting personal liability, fresh start x x x x

1.4 Education

1.4.1 Primary & secondary education

Earl y school lea ving, tea chers need speci fi c training, increase qua l i ty

x x

1.4.2 Vocational & Education training

Cooperation wi th employers , reduce ski l l s mis matches

x x x

1.4.3 Tertiary Education

Stronger cooperation between univers ities and the bus iness sector , improve access to grants , specia l i zati on.

x x

1. GROWTH AND COMPETITIVENESS

Recommendations Reforms

1. Modelo de crecimiento y competitividad

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1. Legislación

Law 14/2011 New Law of Science, Technology and Innovation. New Agency.

Royal Decree 4/2013 on Entrepreneurship and Job Creation. Drastic reduction in the amount of social contributions (50€/m).Law 14/2013 on Entrepreneurship and Internationalization. Special VAT regime, R&D tax subsidies, ICEX, new legal statue for entrepreneurs, tax exemption.Organic Law 8-2013 on Education (LOMCE). Early tests on school performance, increases the flexibility of the system , external evaluation, centralization. Law 22/2014 on Venture Capital Entities; other closed-ended collective investment schemes and their management companies.Law 5/2015 to support firm’s financing. Enhance alternative channels for financing companies (crowdfounding), other than the traditional banking system.

Royal Decree 1067/2015 establishing the State Agency research and approving its Statute.

Law 25/2015, of July 28, 2015, on the second chance mechanism, reducing the financial burden and other measures of a social naturen (RDL1/2015)

Law 30/2015, regulation of the System of Vocational Education.

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EC OECD IMF L4/2013 L3/2013 L20/2013 L24/2013 RDL4/2014 RDL8/2014 L11/2014 L17/2014 RDL1/2015 L9/2015

2.1 Competition enforcement

2.1.1 Regulation Agency Autonomy & independence CNMC x x2.2 Regulation of product and service markets

2.2.1 Services markets Renta l ma rket reba la ncing ta x incentives , a rbi tration bodies

x x x

2.2.2 Utilities (electricity, gas, oil & water)

Competition, interconnection, tariff deficit, transparency, oil distribution

x x x x

2.2.3 Train, airport and ports

Increa se competiti on in ports , fre ight and pa ss enger ra i l , mariti me, stevedore activities ,

x x

2.3 Red tape and business environment regulation

2.3.1 Retail regulationLarge-surface outlets, shop opening hours liberalized, surpressing excessive regulation

x x x x

2.3.2 Ease businessTime and cost to obta in a bus ines s l icense, one-s top s hops , "express l i cence", trans action cost

x x

2.3.3 Insolvency / Restructuring

Strengthening commercial courts' capacity, incentives for early rescue of viable firms, to support out-of-court workouts for SMEs, personal insolvency, review bankruptcy , proceedings, expertise administrators

x x x x x x x x

2.3.4 Market UnityReduce segmentation, remove some of the 2,700 regulatory barriers identified

x x x x

2.4 Professional services2.4.1 Reforming professional services

Liberalize some highly regulated professions

x x x

Recommendat. Reforms

2. COMPETITION AND REGULATION

2. Competencia y regulación

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2. LegislaciónLaw 4/2013, on Measures to increase the flexibility of and promote the housing rental market.

Law 3/2013 on Creation of the National Markets and Competition Comission (CNMC). Integrates the function all the regulatory authorities except financial sector.

Draft law on Professional Services. Reduce the restrictions imposed on the providers of professional services.

Law 20/2013 on Single Market. Reduce market segmentation and allow economies of scale.

Law 24/2013, on the Electric Sector. Improving the cost efficiency of the electricity tariff system and addressing its mounting deficit.Royal Decree Law 4/2014 on Refinancing and Restructuring of Corporate Debt . Strengthen corporate insolvency regime to support early restructuring & debt refinancingRoyal Decree Law 8/2014 on Growth, Competitiveness and Efficency. "Tourist areas", in which there will be no restrictions on the shops' opening hours.

Law 11/2014 on Urgent solvency measures. Facilitate "hair-cuts" in insolvency procedures.

Law 17/2014 on Urgent measures in refinancing and restructuring of corporate debt . Improve the coordination between notaries, real-estate registrars and the insolvency Registry.Royal Decree Law 1/2015 of Second chance mechanism, reduction of financial burden and other social order measures. Facilitating the adoption of the Fresh Start mechanism.Law 9/2015 on Urgent measures on the insolvency law. Refinancing agreements, the liquidation procedure and the insolvency agreement.

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EC OECD IMF ILO L35/2010 L3/2012 RDL3/2014 RDL8/2014

3.1 Labour market Regulations

3.1.1 DualityReduce number of contracts types, increase severance payments with tenure, reduce dismissal cost gap, improve protection temporary workers

x x x x x x

3.1.2 Boost time part work Perma nent pa rt-ti me contract, invol untary part-ti me x x x

3.1.3 Make wages moreresponsive to specific economicconditions

Reducing automatic wage indexation, align wages & productivity, eliminating "ultra-activity" , improve data availability (fact)

x x x x x

3.1.4 Decentralize collectivebargaining

Abolish extension system, increase representation requirements, opt-in sectorial agreement, internal flexibility (wage & hours), increase coverage of workers, mitigate risk of descentralization, Collective bargaining is a key instrument for addressing inequality

x x x x x

3.1.5 Labour market laws andjudiciary interpretation

Si mpl ifying, reduce discretionary role of courts , s ame col lective dis miss als & individua l ones , fa i r dismiss al

x x x x x

3.1.6 Improve labour incomes Ri sk of poverty, improve l abour incomes, minimum wage pol i cies & col lective barga i ing, reduce pay gap.

x x

3.1.7 Labour tax wedges La bour tax reducti ons , abol i s h subs i dies , lower SS contri buti ons (young & low ski l led), target subs idies

x x x x x

3.2 Active Labour Market Policies

3.2.1 Unemployment benefitsStrengthening the l ink between unemployment benefi ts a nd job search and tra ining acti vities , reducing duration, ma nadtory intervi ews

x x

3.2.2 Training and re-skillingprograms for older and youth

Focused training: least qualifies & long term, implementation of VET policies, expanding the application of dual vocational training to reduce early school leaving, increase spending, individualized activation , improve training services.plans.

x x x x

3.2.3 Employment services Improve functioning, coordination regional & national & private services, Single job portal, modernize, personalize, one-stop shop.

x x x x x x

Recommendations Reforms

3. LABOUR MARKET REGULATIONS

3. Mercado laboral

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3. Legislación

Law 35/2010, on Urgent measures to reform the labor market.

Law 3/2012, on Urgent measures to reform the labor market . Promote labor internal flexibility to limit job destruction and reduce volatility.

Royal Decree-Law 3/2014 on Urgent Measures to Foster Employment and Permanent Contracts.

Royal Decree Law, 8/2014 on Growth, competitiveness and efficiency.

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EC OECD IMF MoU SBSR L26/2013 RDL4/2014 RDL8/2014 RDL1/2015

4.1 Recapitalization and Restructuring

4.1.1 Weak banks & lossesResolving unviable banks, mergers of weak banks should be avoided, imposing losses on senior debt, depositor preference, support viable banks

x x x x

4.1.2 Distressed assets

Isolating doubtful assets into an asset management company and legacy assets should be transferred conservatively priced, transfer of assets from a bank to the asset management company, provision loans

x x x

4.1.3 Bad bank Sareb needs to conti nue to ada pt i ts strategies to dis inves t i ts portfol io, ti mely as set disposa l .

x x x

4.1.4 Transparency Independent va luati on, los ses recognized x x x

4.1.5 Stress test Shock res idl ence and solvency, AQR, res olution mechani sm

x x x

4.1.6 Bank capital & liquidity Strengthening capital buffers, backstops, issue equity, capital ratios, direct recapitalization x x x x x x

4.1.7 State- aided banks Return them to private ownership wi thout dela y opti mizi ng the taxpa yer's return

x x x

4.1.8 Savings banksSecondary legislation (circular BdE), management indepence

x x x

4.2 Other financial measures4.2.1 Financing sources of funding

Reduce bank dependency, improve SME access to finance, debt & equity markets, ICO

x x x x

4.2.2 Deleveraging measures (Household insolvency regime & firms)

Pers ona l ins olvency regime, support further out-of-court res tructuri ngs for a ddress i ng hous ehold debt dis tres s , fresh s tart

x x x x

4.2.3 Separation bank activitiesSepa rati on of high ri sk activi ties of univers a l banks

x

4.2.4 Tax Tax rel i ef for provis i oning loans x

4.2.5 Financial sector regulation & supervision

Single Supervisory Mechanism, establish macropru, smooth interaction with the ECB, comprehensive credit registry for SMEs, sanctioning powers of the banking and securities regulators

x x x x x x

Recommendations Reforms

4. FINANCIAL SYSTEM

4. Sistema financiero

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4. Legislación

Royal Decree-Law 11/2010 on Governing bodies and other aspects of the legal regime of savings banks.

Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) on Financial Sector Policy Conditionality.

The Spanish Banking Sector Reform in 2012.

Law 26/2013, on Savings banks and banking foundations.

Royal Decree Law 4/2014 on Refinancing and Restructuring of Corporate Debt.

Royal Decree Law 8/2014 on Growth, Competitiveness and efficiency.

Royal Decree Law 1/2015 of second chance mechanism, reduction of financial burden and other social order measures.

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EC OECD IMF OL2/2012 OL6/2013 TCR L15/2014 L2/2015

5.1 Economic Governance5.1.1 Independent authority AIREF, access to information x x x x5.1.2 Regional & local administrations

Control of regional government budget, inheritance tax, housing transactions, durable framework for funding regions

x x x

5.1.3 Public arrears Cl earing publ ic arrears x x

5.1.4 TransparencyTi mely and regular reporting, i nfrastr. projects , convergency budgetary codes

x x x

5.1.5 Tax system Informal economy, tax fraud & evas ion, imporve effi cency

x

5.1.6 Growth measuresDis -indexation law , review expenditure, procurement contracts (EU legis l ation), SOE, privati zation

x x x

5.2 Fiscal consolidation and fiscal reform

5.2.1 Fiscal enforcement Budgetary Stability Organic Law, deficit targets for regions x x x

5.2.2 Tax reform

Broadening tax base, limit tax expenditure, environmental taxes, standard VAT rates, from labour to indirect taxes, recurrent property taxes, lower tax burden on corporate income and capital gains, Eliminate reintroduced deduction for mortgage payments

x x x x

5.2.3 Expenditure Sys tematic expenditure reviews, co-pa yment x x x5.3 Reform of the Public Administration

5.3.1 Regional & local administrations

Coordination, dupl icated s tructures , mergers of munici pal i ties , e-procurement

x

5.3.2 National administration reform

Procurement centralisation, downsize the so-called institutional administration, law-making process, public sector's commercial debt, anti-corruption policies, digital approach, protecting whistle-blowers, lobbying

x

5.3.3 Judiciary systemEfficency, Oficina Judicial, accelerate judicial proceedings, IT, strengthening commercial courts, out-of-court workouts

x x x x

Recommendations Reforms

5. FISCAL POLICY AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION

5. Política fiscal y administración pública

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5. Legislación

Organic Law 2/2012 on Budget Stability and Financial Sustainability, a set of fiscal discipline principles at all levels of the public administration.

Organic Law 6/2013 on the Independent Fiscal Authority.

Law 27/2013 on the Rationalization of Local Authorities.

Tax Code Reform, refer mainly to personal income tax and company income tax and the reform also includes measures to enhance tax compliance.

Law 15/2014 on the Rationalization of Public Sector. Adopts a number of legal changes that arise from CORA.

Law 2/2015 on the Desindexation of the Spanish Economy.

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EC OECD IMF L23/2013 RDL3/2014 RDL8/2014

6.1 Social Security and Pensions

6.1.1 Social security Lowering employers ' socia l securi ty contributions , interna l deva lua tion

x x x x x

6.1.2 Pensions reformSustainability factor, adjust to life expectancy, consider earnings throughout active working life, working at older age, from 25 years to 30 or 35

x x x x

6.2 Health System

6.2.1 ExpenditureControl of pharmaceutical expenditure, transparency procurement, cost -effectiveness

x

6.2.2 Management coordination measures

Primary care provis ion,interregiona l mobi l i ty, consol idation, measureemnt of outcomes

x x

6.3 Other welfare State Reforms

6.3.1 Expenditure Targeting of family support schemes , Spending on the most vulnerable should be protected

x x

6.3.2 Social assistance coordination

Simplify procedures, address poverty and social inclusion, rising poverty and inequalities, high levels of non-coverage rate, family support schemes

x

6.3.3 Social assistance & labour market

Social assistance and activation measures, address in-work poverty, simplify access to accessing minimum income schemes

x

Recommendations Reforms

6. WELFARE STATE

6. Estado de bienestar

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6. Legislación

Law 23/2013 on the sustainability factor and the revaluation index in the social security pensions system.

Royal Decree-Law 3/2014 on Urgent Measures to Foster Employment and Permanent Contracts.

Royal Decree Law, 8/2014 on Growth, competitiveness and efficiency.

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2. Las reformas del pasado - Evaluación

Grado de acierto en objetivos y progreso de reformas (/10)

1. Recapitalización del sistema financiero (6.5; 6.1)2. Resto de reformas sistema financiero (5.1; 5.0)3. Seguridad social y pensiones (5.1; 4.6)4. Regulación del mercado laboral (4.9; 3.9)5. Sistema de salud (4.7; 4.1)

…

14. Educación (3.7; 2.9)15. Servicios profesionales (3.4; 2.7)16. Políticas activas de empleo (3.2; 2.4)17. Reforma de la admón. Pública (3.2; 2.4)18. I+D y sociedad del conocimiento (2.9; 2.4)

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Las reformas del pasado: líneas estratégicas

1. Reducir sector público y aumentar su eficiencia. Simplificación de trámites; limitar papel de la administración; mejorar coordinación intra- e inter-adminsitración.

2. Fomento de la competencia, reducir la regulación y aumento de transparencia. Liberalización horarios comerciales, unidad de mercado, servicios profesionales, aeropuertos, energía,..

3. Adaptación de la regulación laboral a las necesidades empresariales. Reducción de la dualidad via reducción coste despido; flexibilización a la baja de salarios; descentralizar negociación.

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3. Las reformas del futuro

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Antecedentes I. Trabajos recientes sobre reformas y la post-crisis en España.

1. Decálogo de Reformas para España. Xavier Vives, 20102. Informe sobre España. Repensar el Estado o destruirlo. Santiago

Muñoz Machado, 2012.3. Qué hacer con España. César Molinas, 2013.4. El dilema de España. Luis Garicano, 2014.5. Crecimiento y competitividad. Ivie – F. BBVA. Francisco Pérez (Dir.),

2014.6. El bienestar desigual. Guillem López Casasnovas, 2015.7. En busca de la prosperidad. Javier Andrés y Rafael Doménech, 2015.8. Growing Like Spain: 1995 – 2007. M. García-Santana, E. Moral-Benito,

J. Pijoan-Mas, R. Ramos, 2016 (WP).9. Economistas, políticos y otros animales. Miguel Ángel Fernández

Ordóñez, 2016.10. España 2030: Gobernar el futuro. José Moisés Martín Carretero, 2016.

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Antecedentes II. Trabajos de fondo sobre la crisis y la recuperación

1. Political Credit Cylce: The Case of the Eurozone. J. Fernández-Villaverde, T. Santos, L. Garicano, JEP, 2013.

2. House of Debt. How They (and You) Caused the Great Recession, and How We Can prevent It from Happening Again. Atif Mian y Amir Sufi, 2014.

3. Fragile by Design. The Political Origins of Banking Crisis and Scarce Credit. Charles W. Calomiris, Stephen H .Haber, 2014.

4. Hall of Mirrors. The Great Depression, The Great Recession, and the Uses-and-Misuses of History. Barry Eichengreen, 2015.

5. Rewriting the Rules of the American Economy. An agenda for growth and shared prosperity. Joseph E. Stiglitz, 2016.

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3. Las reformas del futuro: principios y escenarioPrincipiosI. Mayor y mejor inversión en educación y en personasII. Ciudadanos mejor informados; mayor rendición de cuentasIII. Trabajadores con mayor poder de negociaciónIV. Mayor competencia en los mercados; independencia en regulaciónV. Utilizar la capacidad de transformación y arrastre del sector público

Escenario• Nuevas restricciones políticas, económicas y sociales• Negociación, transacción y pacto: imprescindibles• Stiglitz (2016) para US, ¿también para España?

– Los cambios en la regulación doméstica (particularmente en materia laboral) han tenido mucho más impacto sobre el funcionamiento de la economía y la desigualdad que la globalización;

– Hay que asegurar “control por arriba” (limitar rent-seeking) y “ensanchar por en medio”;– El esquema de dejar actuar al mercado y luego redistribuir con impuestos y

transferencias es insuficiente para reducir desigualdad y generar oportunidades.

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3. Las reformas del futuro: factibles y transformadoras

I. Mayor inversión en el largo plazo y en las personas1. Pacto para la educación; propuesta Garicano-Gabilondo + Marina2. Mejorar diseño Agencia Española Investigación; recursos: evitar zig-zag

II. Ciudadanos mejor informados; mayor rendición de cuentas3. Obligación de memoria económica para cada ley; validación AIReF4. Sistema de 5-6 indicadores por MIN; auditoría y control calidad serv. publ.

III. Trabajadores con mayor poder de negociación5. Nuevo modelo políticas activas de empleo6. Observatorio Mercado Laboral: independiente, revisión mercado laboral

IV. Mayor competencia en los mercados; independencia regulación7. CNMC: protec. consumidor y serv. inspección; mejorar gobernanza8. Proceso abierto en selección personal directivo reguladores/supervisores

V. Utilizar la capacidad de transformación y arrastre del sector público9. Compra pública condicionada a criterios laborales, fiscales, medioambient.10. Plan general de contratación de servicios financieros del sector público

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Antecedentes

Comisión Europea, Programa de Ajuste de Portugal, Junio 2011

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Muchas gracias