Overvie Pemex... · 2014. 5. 22. · For more information regarding the adoption of IFRS, see Note...
Transcript of Overvie Pemex... · 2014. 5. 22. · For more information regarding the adoption of IFRS, see Note...
Overview
Rolando Galindo
Head of Investor Relations Office
May 20th, 2014
Forward-Looking Statement and
Cautionary Note
1
Variations
If no further specification is included, changes are made against the same period of the last year.
Rounding
Numbers may not total due to rounding.
Financial information
Excluding budgetary and volumetric information, the financial information included in this report and the annexes hereto is based on unaudited consolidated financial statements prepared in accordance with International Financial
Reporting Standards as issued by the International Accounting Standards Board (“IFRS”), which PEMEX has adopted effective January 1, 2012. Information from prior periods has been retrospectively adjusted in certain accounts to
make it comparable with the unaudited consolidated financial information under IFRS. For more information regarding the adoption of IFRS, see Note 20 to the consolidated financial statements included in Petróleos Mexicanos’ 2011
Form 20-F filed with the SEC on April 30, 2012. Adjusted EBITDA is a non-IFRS measure. We show a reconciliation of Adjusted EBITDA to net income in Table [35] of the annexes to this report. EBITDA is a non-U.S. GAAP and non-FRS
measure issued by the CINIF.
Budgetary information is based on standards from Mexican governmental accounting; therefore, it does not include information from the subsidiary companies of Petróleos Mexicanos.
Foreign exchange conversions
Convenience translations into U.S. dollars of amounts in Mexican pesos have been made at the established exchange rate, as of December 31, 2013, of Ps. 13.0765 = U.S.$1.00. Such translations should not be construed as a
representation that the peso amounts have been or could be converted into U.S. dollars at the foregoing or any other rate.
Fiscal regime
Since January 1, 2006, PEMEX has been subject to a new fiscal regime. Pemex-Exploration and Production’s (PEP) tax regime is governed by the Federal Duties Law, while the tax regimes of the other Subsidiary Entities continue to be
governed by Mexico’s Income Tax Law. The most important duty paid by PEP is the Ordinary Hydrocarbons Duty (OHD), the tax base of which is a quasi operating profit. In addition to the payment of the OHD, PEP is required to pay
other duties.
Under PEMEX’s current fiscal regime, the Special Tax on Production and Services (IEPS) applicable to gasoline and diesel is regulated under the Federal Income Law. PEMEX is an intermediary between the Secretary of Finance and
Public Credit (SHCP) and the final consumer; PEMEX retains the amount of IEPS and transfers it to the Federal Government. The IEPS rate is calculated as the difference between the retail or “final price”, and the “producer price”.
The final prices of gasoline and diesel are established by the SHCP. PEMEX’s producer price is calculated in reference to that of an efficient refinery operating in the Gulf of Mexico. Since 2006, if the final price is lower than the
producer price, the SHCP credits to PEMEX the difference among them. The IEPS credit amount is accrued, whereas the information generally presented by the SHCP is cash-flow.
Hydrocarbon reserves
Pursuant to Article 10 of the Regulatory Law to Article 27 of the Political Constitution of the United Mexican States Concerning Petroleum Affairs, (i) PEMEX's reports evaluating hydrocarbon reserves shall be approved by the National
Hydrocarbons Commission (NHC); and (ii) the Secretary of Energy will register and disclose Mexico's hydrocarbon reserves based on information provided by the NHC. As of the date of this report, this process is ongoing.
As of January 1, 2010, the SEC changed its rules to permit oil and gas companies, in their filings with the SEC, to disclose not only proved reserves, but also probable reserves and possible reserves. In addition, we do not necessarily
mean that the probable or possible reserves described herein meet the recoverability thresholds established by the SEC in its new definitions. Investors are urged to consider closely the disclosure in our Form 20-F and our annual
report to the Mexican Banking and Securities Commission, available at http://www.pemex.com/.
Forward-looking statements
This report contains forward-looking statements. We may also make written or oral forward-looking statements in our periodic reports to the CNBV and the SEC, in our annual reports, in our offering circulars and prospectuses, in press
releases and other written materials and in oral statements made by our officers, directors or employees to third parties. We may include forward-looking statements that address, among other things, our:
– Drilling and other exploration activities;
– Import and export activities;
– Projected and targeted capital expenditures; costs; commitments; revenues; liquidity, etc.
Actual results could differ materially from those projected in such forward-looking statements as a result of various factors that may be beyond our control. These factors include, but are not limited to:
– Changes in international crude oil and natural gas prices;
– Effects on us from competition;
– Limitations on our access to sources of financing on competitive terms;
– Significant economic or political developments in Mexico;
– Developments affecting the energy sector; and
– Changes in our regulatory environment.
Accordingly, you should not place undue reliance on these forward-looking statements. In any event, these statements speak only as of their dates, and we undertake no obligation to update or revise any of them, whether as a result
of new information, future events or otherwise. These risks and uncertainties are more fully detailed in PEMEX’s most recent Form 20-F filing with the SEC (www.sec.gov), and the PEMEX prospectus filed with the CNBV and available
through the Mexican Stock Exchange (www.bmv.com.mx). These factors could cause actual results to differ materially from those contained in any forward-looking statement.
PEMEX
PEMEX is Mexico’s national oil and gas company. Created in 1938, it is the exclusive producer of Mexico’s oil and gas resources. The operating subsidiary entities are Pemex-Exploration and Production, Pemex-Refining, Pemex-Gas and
Basic Petrochemicals and Pemex-Petrochemicals. The principal subsidiary company is PMI.
2
Content
Mexico:
An Economic
Perspective
PEMEX in Context
PEMEX Financials Potential
Mexico Snapshot
(1) Source: Consejo Nacional de Población (CONAPO)
(2) Source: Secretaría de Economía
(3) Source: International Monetary Found
President Enrique Peña Nieto
Total area 1,972,550 km2
2013 population1 118,395,054
Population Density 60/km2
Foreign Direct Investment
3Q 20132 USD 28.2 billion
GDP (PPP)3 2013 estimated
• Total $1.845 trillion
• Per capita $15,608
GDP (nominal)3 2013 estimated
• Total $1.327 trillion
• Per capita $11,224
The Mexican Economy: Diversity and Strength
10.8%
79.7%
4.5% 4.4%
0.2% 0.3% 0.0%
Non-Petroleum Exports 20132
America ex US
US
Europe
Asia
Africa
Australia
Other
11% 2% 3%
1%
83%
Exports by Type 20132
Crude Oil
Petroleum-Other
Agro
Extractive
Manufacturing
(1) Source: The World Bank
(2) Source: Banxico
16.24
8.23
5.96
3.43
2.61
2.47
2.25
2.01
2.01
1.84
1.82
1.53
1.32
1.18
1.13
0.88
0.79
0.77
0.71
0.63
United States
China
Japan
Germany
France
United Kingdom
Brazil
Russian Federation
Italy
India
Canada
Australia
Spain
Mexico
Korea, Rep.
Indonesia
Turkey
Netherlands
Saudi Arabia
Switzerland
Top 20 Economies by GDP 20121
Trillion USD
4
The Mexican Economy: Sound Debt Policies
242.3
133.1 125.3 121
109.2 107.3 99.1 95.3
78.1
45.8 44.7
Japan
Italy
Port
ugal
Irela
nd
Avera
ge
Unit
ed S
tate
s
Spain
Unit
ed K
ingdom
Germ
any
Mexic
o
South
Afr
ica
Expected General Government Gross Debt 20141 (% of GDP)
(1) Source: IMF Fiscal Monitor. Gross Debt for every country; in Mexico it includes debt from central government, social
security, public enterprises, development banks, the national insurance corporation, and the National Infrastructure
Fund, but excludes subnational governments.
(2) Source: Banxico
(3) The Flexible Credit Line (FCL) was designed to meet the increased demand for crisis-prevention and crisis-mitigation
lending for countries with very strong policy frameworks and track records in economic performance. Mexico, Poland
and Colombia are the only countries to have accessed the FCL. None have drawn down on FCL resources.
5
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Jan
-08
Jun
-08
No
v-0
8
Ap
r-0
9
Sep
-09
Feb
-10
Jul-
10
Dec
-10
May
-11
Oct
-11
Mar
-12
Au
g-1
2
Jan
-13
Jun
-13
No
v-1
3
Foreign Exchange Reserves2
(billion USD as of Dec 28, 2014)
International Reserves Flexibe Credit Line3
Source: Bloomberg
-0.7
-0.2
0.3
0.8
1.3
1.8
2.3
2.8
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
Jan-1
3
Feb-1
3
Mar-
13
Apr-
13
May-1
3
Jun-1
3
Jul-
13
Aug-1
3
Sep-1
3
Oct-
13
Nov-1
3
Dec-1
3
Jan-1
4
Feb-1
4
Mar-
14
Cumulative Change (bp) Yield (%)
USD 10 Year Yield
UST (L) Brazil (R) Mexico (R)
Colombia (R) Turkey (R)
Bernanke's
Press
Conference
6
The Mexican Economy: Market Stability
70
120
170
220
270
320
Jan-1
3
Feb-1
3
Mar-
13
Apr-
13
May-1
3
Jun-1
3
Jul-
13
Aug-1
3
Sep-1
3
Oct-
13
Nov-1
3
Dec-1
3
Jan-1
4
Feb-1
4
Mar-
14
5 yr Credit Default Swaps bsp
Mexico Brazil Colombia Turkey
Bernanke's Press Conference
The Mexican Economy: Credit Rating
Country Credit Rating4
7.7
4.4 4.7
1.2 1.9 1.8 1.7 2.3 1.3 1.5 1.7
0.5
-0.4
0.2
-1.8 -1.2
7.5
5.4 5.1 3.9
2.8 2.8 2.4 2.3 2.2 2.0 1.7 1.6 1.0 0.9 0.6 0.6
China India Emerging&
DevelopingEconomies
Mexico UnitedStates
SouthAfrica
UnitedKingdom
Brazil AdvancedEconomies
Russia Japan Germany EuroArea
France Italy Spain
Overview of the World Economic Growth Projections1
(Annual change %) 2013
2014
(1) Source: IMF World Economic Outlook. January 2014.
(2) Mexican Ministry of Finance Forecast
(3) Source: Banxico
(4) Source: Moody´s
2
7
54% 39%
7%
Federal Government Gross External Debt3
(as of Dec 31, 2013)
Capital Markets
International FinancialOrganizations (OFIS)
Foreign Trade
The Mexican Economy: Prominent
International Player
Source: OECD & WTO
8
247.80
155.65
62.91
61.46
61.38
52.62
49.61
42.54
33.98
29.46
25.50
24.97
20.85
19.89
16.47
China
United States
Russia
Brazil
Canada
Australia
United Kingdom
Spain
Ireland
Mexico
India
Chile
Netherlands
Indonesia
Norway
Foreign Direct Investment Inflows (Billion USD Rolling 4 Quarters as of 3Q13)
161.82%
85.40%
63.77%
58.45%
51.04%
49.70%
47.52%
47.11%
47.00%
43.15%
42.92%
42.56%
33.78%
23.89%
21.13%
Netherlands
Ireland
Mexico
Chile
Canada
Norway
Spain
United Kingdom
China
Indonesia
Russia
India
Australia
United States
Brazil
Merchandise Foreign Trade (% of GDP 2012)
9
Content
Mexico:
An Economic
Perspective
PEMEX in Context
PEMEX Financials Potential
469.2 449.9
233.9
169.6 162.5 156.5 152.3 146.9 144.6 138.3 134.3 127.4 127.2 126.6 123.1
America’s Top 15 Corporations based on Revenues (US$MMM)
Source: Fortune 500 ranking 2013.
In terms of revenue PEMEX is one of the leading companies in America and the World.
World Ranking
A Company Of Global Scale
2010 2011 2012
64 49 34
2013
36
14
10
Essential Corporate to Mexico
US$MM
Source: Bloomberg and PEMEX 2012 Financial Information.
*) Includes negative IEPS credit.
PEMEX's revenues are higher than the
total of the top 5 companies in the
Mexican Stock Exchange (BMV)
PEMEX’s EBITDA is 63% higher than the
sum of all the listed companies.
139,122 58,967
31,805
18,130
15,229 14,990
130,208
Top 5 IPC AméricaMóvil
WalmartMéxico
FEMSA Alfa CEMEX PEMEX
REVENUE 2013
59,846
75,931
19,849
4,709 3,508
3,394 3,103 2,824
2,183 2,049 2,025 1,944 1,846 12,413
IPC AméricaMóvil
GrupoMéxico
Banorte Santander WalmartMéxico
FEMSA CEMEX Coca ColaFEMSA
Televisa Peñoles Alfa Otros PEMEX
EBITDA
11
Other
PEMEX invests more than double the amount of what the largest company in the Mexican
Stock Exchange invests.
Pemex invests an amount higher to the sum of the total investment made by all the
companies listed in the Mexican Stock Exchange.
US$MM
An Engine of Growth in Mexico
Source: Bloomberg and PEMEX 2013 Audited Financial Information.
20,462
26,126
9,278
2,120
1,129 1,115 869 868 741 557 449 426 2,908
IPC AméricaMóvil
GrupoMéxico
FEMSA WalmartMéxico
Televisa Peñoles Coca ColaFEMSA
Alfa Mexichem CEMEX Otros PEMEX
CAPEX 2013
12
Other
Key Contributor to the Mexican Government Taxes and Duties
(US$MMM)
Revenues from the oil and gas industry as % of GDP
7.2% 7.6% 7.6% 7.7% 7.3% 8.6% 7.8%
2009 2011 2012 2007 2010 2008 2013
Source: SHCP and PEMEX 2012 Audited Financial Information.
62 57
42
53 63
69 66
35.4% 36.9%
31.0% 32.9% 33.7% 33.7% 33.2%
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Taxes and Duties % the Government Income
13
14
Content
Mexico:
An Economic
Perspective
PEMEX in Context
PEMEX Financials Potential
Exploration and
Production
• Crude oil production: 2,522
Mbd1
• Natural gas production: 5,679
MMcfd1,3
• 75% of crude oil output is
produced offshore
• 1P reserves-life2: 10.2 years
Downstream International
• Refining capacity: 1,690 Mbd
• Strategically positioned
infrastructure
• JVs and associations with key
operators in the Mexican
petrochemical and natural
gas transportation industry
• Crude oil exports: 1,189 Mbd1
• Gasoline traded: 390 Mbd
• Long-term relationship with
USGC refiners
• JV with Shell in Deer Park
Gas Proved Reserves
42%
58%
100% = 3.9 MMMboe
Offshore Onshore
(1) As of December 31, 2013.
(2) At current production levels of approximately 2.5 MMbd.
(3) Does not include nitrogen.
15
Oil Proved Reserves
68%
32%
100% = 10 MMMbd
Offshore Onshore
PEMEX Snapshot
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
Jan-00 Nov-02 Sep-05 Jul-08 May-11 Mar-14
Stable Crude Oil Production (Mbd)
Reserves Replacement Rate
Growing Natural Gas Production (Bcf)
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
Jan-00 Nov-02 Sep-05 Jul-08 May-11 Mar-14
Off-shore
Onshore
Associated
Non-associated
1.5 1.3 1.4 2.4 2.3 2.0 2.2 2.5 2.6
22.7% 26.4%
41.0% 50.3%
71.8%
77.1% 85.8%
101.1% 104.3%
56.9% 59.2% 59.7% 65.7%
102.1%
128.7%
103.9% 107.6% 128.0%
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Exploration CAPEX 1P 3P
(1) Data as of March 2014.
(2) RRR: Reserves Replacement Rate.
16
The Importance of Heavy Crude Oil Production
2,4691 5.91
54% 35%
11%
Heavy Light Extra light
Stable Production with Solid Reserve Base
API˚
Extra
light >38˚
Light >27˚
<38˚
Heavy <=27˚
Refinery
Petrochemical Center
Pipeline
Sales Point
Gas Processing Center
Producer Zone
Maritime Route
Cadereyta Monterrey
Madero
Tula
Pajaritos Morelos
Minatitlán Cactus
Salina Cruz
Cd. Pemex
Salamanca
Guadalajara Cd. México
Camargo
Reynosa
Poza Rica
Cangrejera
Cosoleacaque N. Pemex
San Martín La Venta
Matapionche
Arenque
Burgos
Production Capacity
• Refining
• Atmospheric distillation capacity
1,690 Mbd
• Gas Processing
• Sour Nat Gas 4.5 Bcf
• Cryogenic 5.9 Bcf
• Condensate Sweetening 144 Mbd
• Fractioning 568 Mbd
• Sulfur Recovery 3,256 t/d
• Petrochemical
• 13.55 MM t nominal per year
Infrastructure
• Refining
• 6 Refineries.
• Fleet: 21 tankers.
• Storage of 13.5 MMb of Refined Products.
• 14,176 kms. of pipelines.
• Gas
• 70 Plants in 11 Gas Processing Centers.
• 12,678 kms. of pipelines.
• Petrochemical.
• 8 Petrochemical Plants.
Downstream and Midstream
17
18
Content
Mexico:
An Economic
Perspective
PEMEX in Context
PEMEX Financials Potential
42.3 32.8 44.2
61.6 69.6 45.4
13.8
43% 39%
43%
55% 55%
45% 45%
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 1Q14
Operating Income USD billion
Operating Income Operating Margin
48.8 34.6
49.2 54.9 69.6
43.5
13.3
50%
41% 47% 49%
55%
43% 43%
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 1Q14
Income before Taxes and Duties USD billion
Income before Taxes and Duties Net Margin
71.6 49.7
67.2 76.6 88.2
61.1
19.1
73% 60% 65%
69% 70% 62% 61%
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 1Q14
EBITDA USD billion
EBITDA EBITDA Margin
19
Source: Audited and Unaudited Financial Results of PEMEX.
43.3 48.4 53.8 56.0 60.5 64.3 69.4
0.6
1.0
0.8 0.7 0.7
0.9 0.9
0.4
0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 1Q14
Debt USD billion
Debt Debt/EBITDA Debt/Sales
Profitability, Cash Generation & Debt Ratios
2.0% Pemex-
Petrochemicals
11% Pemex-
Refining
2.0% Pemex-Gas & Basic
Petrochemicals
Pemex-
Exploration &
Production
85%
Figures are nominal and may not total due to rounding
Figures are based on PEMEX’s Business Plan and are subject to Congress and Ministry of Finance approval
Includes upstream maintenance expenditures
“E” means Estimated, and “P” means Preliminary. For reference purposes, U.S. dollar- Mexican peso exchange rate
conversions have been made at the following exchange rates, Ps.12.9/U.S.$1 for 2014 and beyond years
Includes complimentary non-programmed CAPEX
13.8
15.7 14.9
18.6
21.7
19.1
23.9
26.0
23.4
29.0 29.9
31.0 31.3
3.2
27.7
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013P 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E
USD billion
20
Investing To Meet Our Long-term Goals
PEMEX the Financial Community
PEMEX’s Credit rating
Fitch BBB+
Moody’s Baa1
S&P BBB+
PEMEX’s credit
ratings, yields and
CDS have had a
favorable trend
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
Dec-11 Jul-12 Jan-13 Aug-13 Mar-14
Pemex vs Petrobras 10 years (%)
Pemex 10años
Petrobras10 años
Diferencial
-100
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
Dec-11 Jul-12 Jan-13 Aug-13 Mar-14
Pemex vs Petrobras CDS 5 years (Basis points) Pemex CDS 5 años
Petrobras CDS 5años
Diferencial
21
PEMEX 10
years
Petrobras
5 years
Spread
PEMEX CDS
5 years
Petrobras
CDS 5 years
Spread
22
Content
Mexico:
An Economic
Perspective
PEMEX in Context
PEMEX Financials Potential
24.3
62.2
Baseline Full potential
Investment Annual average 2014-2025
(Billion USD)
2.8
4.1
Baseline Full potential
Oil Annual average
2014-2025 (MMbd)
6.1
9.1
Baseline Full potential
Gas Annual average
2014-2025 (Bcfd)
E & P opportunities more than double
Pemex’s present CAPEX
New Players
&
PEMEX
E&P
Midstream
Downstream Substantial
increase in
investment in the
oil and gas industry
23
Enhanced Oil Recovery (EOR):
Untapped potential
24
445
757
312
Mature Others Total
Oil and Gas fields Number
10
44.5 34.5
Mature Others Total
Total Reserves MMMboe
52%
5%
10%
33%
Total Mature Reserves by Region
Marine Northeast Marine Southwest
North South
Source: National Geographic
United
States
Mexico
Cuba
Gulf of
Mexico
PEMEX has taken important
steps in Mexico’s next
production frontiers
PEMEX has acquired significant
information from deep and
ultra-deep water oil fields in
the Gulf of Mexico:
• 3D seismic acquisition:
124,790 km2
• Wells Drilled: ~30.
Commercial success: above
50%
• Focus on Perdido (crude oil)
and Holok (non-associated
natural gas)
25
Mexico’s Next Production Frontiers –
Deep Water
NiobraraMarcellus
HeneysvilleBarnet
Antrim
Monterey
Woodford
Bakken
PEMEX has taken important
steps in Mexico’s next
production frontiers
• Eagle Ford and Woodford
have continuity across the
border
• Bakken and Haynesville are
analogues of plays in Mexico
• EIA estimates Mexico counts
with 6th largest reserve
worldwide
• Geological and geochemical
analyses have identified 6
potential shale oil/gas plays:
• Chihuahua
• Sabinas
• Burro-Picachos
• Burgos
• Tampico-Misantla
• Veracruz
NiobraraMarcellus
HeneysvilleBarnet
Antrim
Monterey
Woodford
Bakken
NiobraraMarcellus
HeneysvilleBarnet
Antrim
Monterey
Woodford
Bakken
Basins
Prospective Areas
Gulf of
Mexico
26
Source: CNH with information from North Dakota Department of Mineral Resources, Oklahoma Geological Survey, Texas Railroad
Commission, Bureau of Ocean Energy Management, Oil & Gas Journal Well Forecast for 2013.
Mexico’s Next Production Frontiers - Shale
Overview
Rolando Galindo
Head of Investor Relations Office
Q & A