Persisten CIA

CÁLCULO DE LA PROBABILIDAD EMPIRICA

m ENE FEB MAR. ABR. MAY. JUN. JUL. AGO. SET. OCT. NOV. DIC. TOTAL

1 3.23 137.6 233.6 357.3 120.2 69.5 28.7 28.4 32.6 87.2 130.4 111 172.1 1508.62 6.45 130.4 186.5 275.7 105.7 66.8 25.1 23.4 28 53.5 124.8 106.4 162 1288.33 9.68 129.9 181.8 238.5 98.4 65.6 23 17.6 26.4 50 111.9 97.6 146.3 11874 12.90 121.1 158.8 159.7 95.6 61.1 19.9 10.8 23.8 45.1 106.6 74.3 118.4 995.25 16.13 120.9 146.4 152.8 93.8 53 19.6 10.2 20.6 43.9 103 71.6 115.2 9516 19.35 116.6 139.5 141.9 88.7 44.1 17.3 9.6 19.3 42.9 101 68.2 111.3 900.47 22.58 109.7 128.2 133.7 85.7 44 16.7 8.4 19.3 39.7 98 67.3 106.7 857.48 25.81 101 105.5 123.8 85.4 43 15.1 7.5 18.7 39.5 89.8 66.5 104.1 799.99 29.03 98 102.9 121.1 80 38.2 12.2 7.5 18.3 37.3 86.9 66.2 87.4 756

10 32.26 95.3 97.8 113.5 76.2 33.8 11.1 7.5 17.2 36.7 80.2 65.2 84.6 719.111 35.48 87 95.3 109.1 70.7 31.1 10.7 7.2 16.2 33.6 79.7 65.1 72.3 67812 38.71 84.4 95.2 105.7 62 28 10.1 7.2 15.7 32.9 76.8 62.7 71.9 652.613 41.94 84.1 90 101.8 58.5 27.9 10 6.8 15.1 31.9 73.8 61.2 70.8 631.914 45.16 78.2 90 96.8 56.2 25.5 8 6.5 14.6 28.7 73.3 58.8 68.2 604.815 48.39 76.8 85.1 96 55.2 18.8 7.8 4.8 12.7 28.1 71 55.1 66.5 577.916 51.61 71.8 81.6 95.2 55.2 18.1 6.6 4.4 12.3 27 69.4 55.1 64.2 560.917 54.84 71 81.4 91.6 54.7 17.9 6.6 3.9 10.3 25 68.6 54.8 63.4 549.218 58.06 62.7 81 83.5 54.5 16.3 5.4 3.4 7.8 24.9 66.4 54.6 61.5 52219 61.29 58.4 75.7 81.3 52.2 16 4.4 3.2 6.7 22 53.4 54 54.1 481.420 64.52 58 73.7 79.9 52.1 14.9 4 3.2 6.6 19.2 52.6 51.5 51.8 467.521 67.74 55.5 70.7 75.7 42.6 14.7 3.9 3.2 5.9 18.4 50 48.3 50.2 439.122 70.97 43.8 67.6 70.3 41.9 13.3 3.9 2.9 5.8 18.2 43.6 47.1 46.6 40523 74.19 42 62.9 67.7 41.9 12.3 3.9 2.1 4.4 16.1 37.2 47 44.8 382.324 77.42 36.5 50.4 65 41.7 12.1 3.3 1.6 3.8 13.4 32.2 45.8 44.4 350.225 80.65 35.8 47.7 54.5 37.1 11.2 1.8 1.6 2.7 13.1 31.4 45.6 40.3 322.826 83.87 34.9 45.9 48.8 37 10.6 1.6 1.2 2.5 12.6 28.2 40.7 36.7 300.727 87.10 30.3 42.4 44.8 33.7 8 0.7 0.4 0.7 12.3 24.4 28.1 34.4 260.228 90.32 24.7 42.4 39.2 32.3 6.9 0.6 0.3 0.4 10.2 24.4 26.3 18.7 226.429 93.55 24.6 41.8 37.2 29.3 4.6 0.4 0.1 0.3 2.3 20.7 23.9 2.7 187.930 96.77 12.7 34.4 11.8 26.2 1.5 0 0 0.1 1.3 5.5 17.8 0.9 112.2n 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30X 74.5 94.5 109.1 62.2 27.6 9.4 6.5 12.3 28.9 67.2 57.9 72.4 622.5S 36.1 48.3 72.5 25.3 20.0 8.0 6.6 9.0 17.6 32.9 21.5 42.3 332.1R 0.984 0.982 0.993 0.981 0.94 0.98 0.99 0.984 0.988 0.990 0.960 0.959 0.987Tc 29.70 28.02 44.80 27.27 15.90 28.02 37.51 29.70 34.26 37.51 18.90 18.67 32.92Tt 2.048 2.048 2.048 2.048 2.048 2.05 2.05 2.048 2.048 2.048 2.048 2.048 2.048HA si / no SI SI SI SI SI SI SI SI SI SI SI SI SI

Seguidamente se presentan las curvas de persistencia correspondiente al acumulado y a cada mes de la estación Weberbauer.

CUADRO: ORDENAMIENTO DE LOS DATOS DE LA ESTACIÓN WEBERBAUER.

P( x>X )=m1+N

HP: R = 0 HP: R = 0HA: R ≠ 0 HA: R ≠ 0α = 0.05 α = 0.05R = 0.959791644 R = 0.99161484458

Tc = 18.09 Tc = 40.60Tt = 2.042 Tt = 2.042

Tc > Tt Aceptar HA Tc > Tt Aceptar HA (Prueba significativa puede utilizarse la ecuación) Prueba significativa puede utilizarse la ecuación)


Tc = 22.15 Tc = 21.44Tt = 2.042 Tt = 2.042


0 20 40 60 80 100 1200

20406080

100120140160

f(x) = 176.335365511172 exp( − 0.0201628911802717 x )R² = 0.921190575130477

CURVA DE PERSISTENCIA - ENERO

P(x>X) (%)

PREC

IPIT

AC

IÓN

(mm

)

0 20 40 60 80 100 1200

50

100

150

200

250

f(x) = − 56.3224365159458 ln(x) + 300.668338362571R² = 0.983281086717191

CURVA DE PERSISTENCIA - FEBRERO

P(x>X) (%)

PREC

IPIT

AC

IÓN

(mm

)

0 20 40 60 80 100 1200

50100150200250300350400

f(x) = − 82.8956634082489 ln(x) + 412.510791258341R² = 0.945986760830819

CURVA DE PERSISTENCIA - MARZO

P(x>X) (%)

PREC

IPIT

AC

IÓN

(mm

)

0 20 40 60 80 100 1200

20406080

100120140

f(x) = − 28.8358536485918 ln(x) + 167.689860284235R² = 0.942592898236754

CURVA DE PERSISTENCIA - ABRIL

P(x>X) (%)

PREC

IPIT

AC

IÓN

(mm

)


Tc = 24.43 Tc = 35.36Tt = 2.042 Tt = 2.042



Tc = 22.30 Tc = 18.54Tt = 2.042 Tt = 2.042


0 20 40 60 80 100 1200

1020304050607080

f(x) = − 22.945844622614 ln(x) + 111.603659086838R² = 0.955191128673918

CURVA DE PERSISTENCIA - MAYO

P(x>X) (%)

PREC

IPIT

AC

IÓN

(mm

)

0 20 40 60 80 100 12005

101520253035

f(x) = − 9.26082229614962 ln(x) + 43.3060061269886R² = 0.978084344462523

CURVA DE PERSISTENCIA - JUNIO

P(x>X) (%)

PREC

IPIT

AC

IÓN

(mm

)

0 20 40 60 80 100 1200

5

10

15

20

25

30

f(x) = − 7.54599217653337 ln(x) + 34.1134198624453R² = 0.946709040142784

CURVA DE PERSISTENCIA - JULIO

P(x>X) (%)

PREC

IPIT

AC

IÓN

(mm

)

0 20 40 60 80 100 12005

1015

20253035

f(x) = − 10.2017286046583 ln(x) + 49.6295264347941R² = 0.924657527109799

CURVA DE PERSISTENCIA - AGOSTO

P(x>X) (%)

PREC

IPIT

AC

IÓN

(mm

)


Tc = 19.67 Tc = 13.79Tt = 2.042 Tt = 2.042



Tc = 15.25 Tc = 22.28Tt = 2.042 Tt = 2.042


Precipitaciones mensuales al 75% y 95% en mm

MES ENE FEB MAR ABR MAY JUN JUL AGO SET OCT NOV DIC75% 38.76 57.50 54.61 43.19 12.53 3.32 1.53 5.58 15.78 43.39 42.26 40.6195% 25.88 44.19 35.01 36.37 7.11 1.13 0.00 3.17 11.06 34.84 36.62 29.18

0 20 40 60 80 100 1200

20

40

60

80

100

f(x) = − 19.9542284442507 ln(x) + 101.928302874576R² = 0.932462267516984

CURVA DE PERSISTENCIA - SEPTIEMBRE

P(x>X) (%)

PREC

IPIT

AC

IÓN

(mm

)

0 20 40 60 80 100 1200

20406080

100120140

f(x) = − 36.165004624275 ln(x) + 199.529686701781R² = 0.871663619749466

CURVA DE PERSISTENCIA - OCTUBRE

P(x>X) (%)

PREC

IPIT

AC

IÓN

(mm

)

0 20 40 60 80 100 1200

20

40

60

80

100

120f(x) = − 23.8319960141831 ln(x) + 145.146787850099R² = 0.892597374067701

CURVA DE PERSISTENCIA - NOVIEMBRE

P(x>X) (%)

PREC

IPIT

AC

IÓN

(mm

)

0 20 40 60 80 100 1200

50

100

150

200f(x) = − 48.3664007562106 ln(x) + 249.427578075539R² = 0.946564556728532

CURVA DE PERSISTENCIA - DICIEMBRE

P(x>X) (%)

PREC

IPIT

AC

IÓN

(mm

)

Persisten CIA

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