Plantilla Dist. Normal

7/26/2019 Plantilla Dist. Normal

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PROB

SABEMOS LO SIGUIENTE:

p =

q =

Tr =

AO Q m Qmax

1983 47.7 1 139.2

1982 66.8 2 131.1

1981 102.1 3 127.4

1980 53.2 4 127.1

1979 70.2 5 122.7

1977 77.3 6 117.7

1978 75.9 7 115.9

1976 99.6 8 111.7

1975 110.6 9 110.7

1973 139.2 10 110.6

1974 122.7 11 107.3

1972 105.6 12 106.7

1971 66.7 13 105.6

1970 74.5 14 105.61969 57.6 15 103.7

1968 74.4 16 102.1

1967 61.9 17 102.1

1966 33.7 18 101.4

1965 56.7 19 99.6

1964 66.1 20 98.7

1963 115.9 21 93.9

1962 93.9 22 91.9

1961 88.1 23 88.1

1960 82.6 24 83.0

1959 77.4 25 82.6


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1958 102.1 26 82.3

1957 59.6 27 77.7

1956 58.9 28 77.4

1955 131.1 29 77.4

1954 103.7 30 77.3

1953 91.9 31 75.9

1952 83.0 32 74.5

1951 106.7 33 74.4

1984 110.7 34 70.8

1985 111.7 35 70.2

1986 101.4 36 67.4

1987 70.8 37 66.8

1988 77.4 38 66.7

1989 127.1 39 66.1

1990 41.5 40 62.5

1991 62.5 41 61.91992 57.3 42 59.6

1993 67.4 43 58.9

1994 117.7 44 57.6

1995 77.7 45 57.3

1996 98.7 46 56.7

1997 107.3 47 53.2

1998 82.3 48 47.7

1999 127.4 49 41.5

2000 105.6

50 33.7

n 50

X 86 50

S 25!36

S2 643!31

111!40 85

60!67 15

A" E#UA#ION $E %EG%ESION:

B = S

A

B

y = 86.034

$ES#A%GAS ME$IAS MENSUALES:

X & S

X ' S

A = X


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LUEGO:

95!000 (

Z =

USAN$O LA #AM)ANA $E GAUSS:

) (

P =

B"

Q1 =

Q =

*)A%A Q ( 120!00

+ ( 1!339

) ( '0!4097

) , Q - 229!25 . Q / 42!71" :) (

) ( 0!8320P = 83.0

AOS $E SEQUIA:

AOS SEQ! ( 25

AOS SEQ! ( 25

E#UA#ION $E %EG%ESION: T (

p =

(

USAN$O LA #AM)ANA $

+ (

A$EMAS:

Q1 ( X & S

Q2 ( X ' S


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Q =

$ES#A%GAS ME$IAS MENSUALES:

(

$"

USAN$O LA #AM)ANA $

+ (

A$EMAS:

Q (

Q


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ABILIDAD EMPIRICA

! " 100%

# $ 1

100% - p%

1 " 100%

p

O#U%%EN#IA NO O#U%%EN#IA

)!E! ," ," T,A" + ,Q"

1!961 98!039 0!5099 2!095 2!144

3!922 96!078 0!255 1!776 2!118

5!882 94!118 0!17 1!631 2!105

7!843 92!157 0!1275 1!618 2!104

9!804 90!196 0!102 1!446 2!089

11!765 88!235 0!085 1!250 2!071

13!725 86!275 0!0729 1!179 2!064

15!686 84!314 0!0638 1!013 2!048

17!647 82!353 0!0567 0!973 2!044

19!608 80!392 0!051 0!968 2!044

21!569 78!431 0!0464 0!839 2!031

23!529 76!471 0!0425 0!813 2!028

25!49 74!51 0!0392 0!771 2!024

27!451 72!549 0!0364 0!769 2!02329!412 70!588 0!034 0!697 2!016

31!373 68!627 0!0319 0!635 2!009

33!333 66!667 0!03 0!632 2!009

35!294 64!706 0!0283 0!604 2!006

37!255 62!745 0!0268 0!536 1!998

39!216 60!784 0!0255 0!498 1!994

41!176 58!824 0!0243 0!311 1!973

43!137 56!863 0!0232 0!231 1!963

45!098 54!902 0!0222 0!081 1!945

47!059 52!941 0!0212 '0!120 1!919

49 02 50 98 0 0204 '0 136 1 917


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50!98 49!02 0!0196 '0!148 1!915

52!941 47!059 0!0189 '0!329 1!890

54!902 45!098 0!0182 '0!339 1!889

56!863 43!137 0!0176 '0!341 1!889

58!824 41!176 0!017 '0!344 1!888

60!784 39!216 0!0165 '0!400 1!880

62!745 37!255 0!0159 '0!456 1!872

64!706 35!294 0!0155 '0!459 1!872

66!667 33!333 0!015 '0!599 1!850

68!627 31!373 0!0146 '0!624 1!846

70!588 29!412 0!0142 '0!735 1!829

72!549 27!451 0!0138 '0!758 1!825

74!51 25!49 0!0134 '0!763 1!824

76!471 23!529 0!0131 '0!786 1!820

78!431 21!569 0!0128 '0!927 1!796

80!392 19!608 0!0124 '0!950 1!79282!353 17!647 0!0121 '1!043 1!775

84!314 15!686 0!0119 '1!069 1!770

86!275 13!725 0!0116 '1!121 1!760

88!235 11!765 0!0113 '1!134 1!758

90!196 9!804 0!0111 '1!155 1!754

92!157 7!843 0!0109 '1!293 1!726

94!118 5!882 0!0106 '1!512 1!678

96!078 3!922 0!0104 '1!757 1!618

98!039 1!961 0!0102 '2!064 1!527n 50

X 1!9146

S 0!1372

Q = A $ B

86!034

25!364

$ &.364


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86!034 & 25!364 * +

0.3&3&

0!6381

63.81

10.00

&0.00

*)A%A Q ( 50!00

+ ( '1!421

) ( 0!4223

0!4097 ' 0!4223

5 a

0.0 %

0!30

GAUSS:

0!842

Q = A $ B


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86!034 & 25!364 * 0!842

Q = 10(.3' !3)*

( 1 ' ,1 ' ".n( 1 ' ,1 ' 0!04".20

0!558

+ = &&.8 %

( 1 ' ,1 ' ".n0!1 ( 1 ' ,1 ' ".20

( 0!00525 ( 0!5 '0!00525

( 0!4947

GAUSS:

2!56

Q = A $ B

86!0338 & 25!364 * 2!56

( 150!965

Q = 1&0.'6&


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+,"

1!668

1!479

1!389

1!381

1!270

1!139

1!090

0!973

0!944

0!941

0!846

0!826

0!794

0!7930!737

0!689

0!687

0!665

0!610

0!580

0!424

0!355

0!221

0!033

0 017


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0!005

'0!177

'0!187

'0!189

'0!192

'0!251

'0!311

'0!314

'0!469

'0!497

'0!627

'0!655

'0!660

'0!687

'0!865

'0!894'1!017

'1!052

'1!123

'1!142

'1!171

'1!373

'1!721

'2!164

'2!822


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4 0.00013383

3.9 0.00019866

3.8 0.00029195

3.7 0.00042478

3.6 0.0006119

3.5 0.00087268

3.4 0.00123222

3.3 0.00172257

3.2 0.00238409

3.1 0.00326682

3 0.00443185

2.9 0.00595253

2.8 0.00791545

2.7 0.01042093

-4

-3.9

-3.8

-3.7

-3.6

-3.5

-3.4

-3.3

-3.2

-3.1

-3

-2.9

-2.8

-2.7

-2.6

-2.5

-2.


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2.6 0.01358297

2.5 0.0175283

2.4 0.02239453

2.3 0.02832704

2.2 0.03547459

2.1 0.0439836

2 0.053990971.9 0.06561581

1.8 0.07895016

1.7 0.09404908

1.6 0.11092083

1.5 0.1295176

1.4 0.14972747

1.3 0.17136859

1.2 0.19418605

1.1 0.21785218

1 0.24197072

0.9 0.26608525

0.8 0.28969155

0.7 0.31225393

0.6 0.3332246

0.5 0.35206533

0.4 0.36827014

0.3 0.38138782

0.2 0.39104269

0.1 0.39695255

0 0.39894228

-0.1 0.39695255

-0.2 0.39104269

-0.3 0.38138782

-0.4 0.36827014

-0.5 0.35206533

-0.6 0.3332246

-0.7 0.31225393

-0.8 0.28969155

-0.9 0.26608525

-1 0.24197072

-1.1 0.21785218

-1.2 0.19418605

-1.3 0.17136859

-1.4 0.14972747

-1.5 0.1295176

-1.6 0.11092083

-1.7 0.09404908

-1.8 0.07895016


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-1.9 0.06561581

-2 0.05399097

-2.1 0.0439836

-2.2 0.03547459

-2.3 0.02832704

-2.4 0.02239453

-2.5 0.0175283-2.6 0.01358297

-2.7 0.01042093

-2.8 0.00791545

-2.9 0.00595253

-3 0.00443185

-3.1 0.00326682

-3.2 0.00238409

-3.3 0.00172257

-3.4 0.00123222

-3.5 0.00087268

-3.6 0.0006119

-3.7 0.00042478

-3.8 0.00029195

-3.9 0.00019866

-4 0.00013383


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#AM)ANA $E GAUSS

2.3

-2.2

-2.1

-2

-1.9

-1.8

-1.7

-1.6

-1.5

-1.4

-1.3

-1.2

-1.1

-1

-0.9

-0.8

-0.7

-0.6

-0.5

-0.4

-0.3

-0.2

-0.1

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

1.1

1.2

1.3


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Plantilla Dist. Normal

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Transcript of Plantilla Dist. Normal