Presentacion.docx

UNIVERSIDAD NACIONAL PEDRO RUIZ GALLO

Ingenieria en Computacion e Informativa

CURSO: METODOS DE PREDICCIN

DOCENTE: EMMA NOBLECILLA MONTEALEGRETRABAJO ELABORADO POR: VASQUEZ TAFUR ANDY YORSI

CICLO:2015-I

FECHA:LAMBAYEQUE, 18 DE JUNIO DEL 2012.

JULIO DEL 2015

Regresin MltiplepasN turistas entradosPBIDistancia

YX1X2

A1.83.11500

B2.54.21200

C0.72.73100

D1.232500

E1.941800

8.11710100

X0111111

X13.14.22.73417

X21500120031002500180010100

X1X2

13.11500

14.21200

12.73100

132500

141800

11710100

Y

1.8

2.5

0.7

1.2

1.9

8.1

6342020016.2

34348.54204460166.87

2020020446012480000096100

Inversa

0.374541547-0.02500953-1.965E-05B01941225771

-0.0250095260.075346093-0.00011939B119648664712

-1.96498E-05-0.000119392.06793E-07B21.19933E+13

pasN turistas entradosPBIDistanciay^E

YX1X2

A1.83.115001.799E+16-1.799E+163.23641E+32

B2.54.212001.43921E+16-1.43921E+162.07131E+32

C0.72.731003.71793E+16-3.71793E+161.3823E+33

D1.2325002.99833E+16-2.99833E+168.99001E+32

E1.9418002.1588E+16-2.1588E+164.66044E+32

8.117101001.21133E+17-1.21133E+171.46732E+34

11111

YX1X2X1X2X13.14.22.734

1.83.1150013.11500X215001200310025001800

2.54.2120014.21200

0.72.7310012.73100MATRIZ

INVERSA MATRIZ

1.2325001325005171010034.21-6.82-0.00535763

1.9418001418001759.5432760-6.821.440.00095254

10100327602E+07-0.011E-03.049E-06

Y'1.82.50.71.21.9

SUMA Y8.1y'y15.03

B01.606B'1.610.37-0n5SSRes0.014

B10.373p3SSR1.894

B2-6E-04B'X'Y15k2SST1.908

MSRes6E-04

fo >F(k,n-k-1)

14019

se rechaza la hipotesis nula,significa que al menos un 0

B1 Es el mayor

El PBI es la variable ms explicativa

X'Y

8.1 Fo=139.8

29.17

14290

R54.38

R22957

Radj-5870

Coeficiente de determinacion 98% (1-=0.98)

H0:B0 =0T0>T(/2,n-p)

Ha:B0 0425.5336651>6.965

T(/2,n-p)6.965

T0=425.533665Se rechaza la hipotesisi nula

2- YX1X2

alicate278696

almeria72971

baleares2461120

malaga206777

soria84580

tarragona5989

tenerife1743107

toledo93781

zamora31765

zaragoza3571102

X1X2

18696

12971

161120

16777

14580

1989

143107

13781

11765

171102

1111111111

X18629616745943371771

X296711207780891078165102

10465888155

46527101431409334

888431408154614907

3.10.00343691-0.03535124B0-17.597887

00.00023755-0.00016309B10.3187255

-0-0.000163090.0004835B20.20582377

Y

27

7

24

20

8

5

17

9

3

35

YX1X2Y^E-e^2i

27869629.5715885-2.571588526.61306751

729716.258640520.741359480.54961388

246112026.5432216-2.543221556.46797586

20677719.60515230.394847740.15590474

8458013.2106625-5.2106625327.151004

59893.588958421.411041581.99103835

174310718.1304534-1.130453441.27792498

9378110.8666823-1.866682293.48450276

317651.198991851.801008153.24363037

357110226.02564868.9743513780.5389825

4yx1x2X

183644.1x1x2

171594.21644.1

114145 3.9 1594.2

1251663.31145 3.9

17453311663.3

200482.61533

134954.21482.6

163503.51954.2

1503.5

y183171114125174200134163

X'11111111

x1645914516653489550

x24.14.2 3.9 3.332.64.23.5

MATRIZMATRIZ INVERSAX'Y

868028.85.36-0.003-1.41264

680727962481.3-07E-05-098783

292481106.2-1.39-9E-040.414500.9

B0249.3B'249.3-0.55-12.38

B1-0.55

B2-12.4

B0249.3B'249.3-0.55-12.38

B1-0.55

B2-12.4

y'y206152R11.2546769

B'X'Y205084SSRes1067.68R2126.667753

SSR5372.32Radj-146.934854

SST6440

Suma Y1264p3MSRes50.8417Fo12.5794944

n8k2

fo >F(k,n-k-1)

12.585.79

se rechaza la hipotesis nula,significa que almenos un 0

H0:B1 =0T0>T(/2,n-p)

Ha:B1 0-1.304688132T(/2,n-p)

Ha:B2 0-0.380759228F(k,n-k-1)MSRes123.565556

29.20231264.74


R5.40391642

R229.2023126

Radj-9.54583053

Fo1.36705211

-18.8463084

-12.8107865

3.89045661

Hipotesis (1-=0.95)

H0:B0 =0T0>T(/2,n-p)

Ha:B0 0-0.054266574T(/2,n-p)

Ha:B1 0-0.050913559T(/2,n-p)

Ha:B2 00.088047337F(k,n-k-1)

34.44893.07


X'.Y

515.52

130751.7

66459.91Hipotesis (1-=0.95)

1251.35H0:B1 =0T0>T(/2,n-p)

Ha:B1 0-4.85T(/2,n-p)

Ha:B0 019.66>3.47

T(/2,n-p)3.47

T0=19.66Se rechaza la hipotesisi nula

H0:B2 =0T0>T(/2,n-p)

Ha:B2 0-0.52T(/2,n-p)

Ha:B3 01.5554.53

Y'*Y-274.9184580.8405242171.955134

5960800

B'*X'*Y

5953484.35

Prubea de Hipotesis coeficientes individuales

HB = 0oo =0.05

HaB 0

T3.27483595

|T|>T(oo/2,n-p)

3.27483595>2.447

La hipotesis se rechaza

HB = 0oo =0.05

HaB 0

T1.73806204

|T|>T(oo/2,n-p)

1.73806204>2.447

La hipotesis no se rechaza

intervalo de confianza de los coeficientes de regresion

B

0.212473590.840524211.46857482

B

-29.349772671.955134173.260041

nyx1x2x3Normal X'

1128.42267128.4nx1x2x3

152.622203.37552.6212267128.4

1113.9217.46.375113.912203.37552.62

198.01220698.011217.46.375113.9

1139.9226.57.625139.91220698.01

1102.6224.16102.61226.57.625139.9

148.14220.53.37548.141224.16102.6

1109.6223.56.125109.61220.53.37548.14

182.68217.6582.681223.56.125109.6

1112.6228.56.625112.61217.6582.68

197.52230.25.7597.521228.56.625112.6

159.06226.53.7559.061230.25.7597.52

1111.8226.66.125111.81226.53.7559.06

189.09225.65.37589.091226.66.125111.8

1101229.75.8751011225.65.37589.09

1171.92348.875171.91229.75.875101

166.8230466.812348.875171.9

1157.1224.38157.11230466.8

1208.4240.510.87280.41224.38157.1

1133.4223.77.375133.41240.510.87280.4

2184.521223.77.375133.4

x' * yBrespuesta A

2184.52B0-22.55

495675.996B10.0059B'-230.0120.30.05

14904.0193B220.304

284336.409B30.045respuesta B

4444.74

MSR = 10151

MSRES = 17.044

y'128.452.6211498.01139.910348.1411082.711397.559.111289.110117266.8157208133

SST = 30725.227fuente de variacionsuma de cuadrados grados de libertadcuadrado medioF0

regresion30452.5310151596

SSR = 30452.518residuales272.711617.04

total30725.219

SSRes =272.70895

F0 = 1228.3341

F(k,n-k-1) = 3.24

9-Yx1x2x3x4x5x6Normal x

85.219.629.694.42.12.3nx2x3x4x5

8.35.219.832.489.72.11.8119.629.694.42.1

8.55.819.63196.222119.832.489.72.1

8.86.419.432.495.62.22.1119.63196.22

95.818.628.686.521.8119.432.495.62.2

9.35.218.830.684.52.12.1118.628.686.52

9.35.620.432.488.82.21.9118.830.684.52.1

9.561932.685.72.11.9120.432.488.82.2

9.85.220.832.293.62.32.111932.685.72.1

105.819.931.8862.11.8120.832.293.62.3

10.36.41832.68721.6119.931.8862.1

10.5620.633.493.12.12.111832.6872

10.86.220.231.883.42.22.1120.633.493.12.1

116.220.232.494.52.11.9120.231.883.42.2

11.36.219.231.483.41.91.8120.232.494.52.1

11.55.61733.285.22.12.1119.231.483.41.9

11.8619.835.484.121.811733.285.22.1

12.35.818.83486.22.11.8119.835.484.12

12.55.618.634.2831.92118.83486.22.1

192.5118.634.2831.9

Y

8

8.3

transpuesta x'8.5

11111111111111111118.8

19.619.819.619.418.618.820.41920.819.91820.620.220.219.21719.818.818.69

29.632.43132.428.630.632.432.632.231.832.633.431.832.431.433.235.43434.29.3

94.489.796.295.686.584.588.885.793.6868793.183.494.583.485.284.186.2839.3

2.12.122.222.12.22.12.32.122.12.22.11.92.122.11.99.5

9.8

10

10.3

10.5

10.8

x'*x

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