Promedio MvilEjemplo1PronsticoPromedio mvil = 3 PerodosDatosAnlisis de ErrorPeriodoDemandaPronstico Promedio MvilErrorAbsoluteSquaredEnero20Febrero22Marzo2321.00Abril2622.503.503.5012.25Mayo2924.504.504.5020.25Junio3327.505.505.5030.25Julio3631.005.005.0025.00Agosto4034.505.505.5030.25Septiembre3838.000.000.000.00Octubre2839.00-11.0011.00121.00Noviembre2633.00-7.007.0049.00Diciembre2427.00-3.003.009.00Prximo perodo2625.00Total3.0045.00297.00Promedio0.335.0033.00BiasMADMSESE6.51

Promedio Mvil

DemandaPronstico Promedio MvilTiempoDemandaPronstico

Promedio Mvil PonderadoEjemplo 2PronsticoPromedio mvil = 3 PerodosDataAnlisis de ErrorPeriodoDemandaPesoPronstico Promedio Mvil PonderadoErrorAbsoluteSquaredJan201Feb222Mar233Apr2622.23.83.814.7May2924.34.74.721.8Jun3327.06.06.036.0Jul3630.55.55.530.3Aug4033.86.26.238.0Sep3837.50.50.50.3Oct2838.3-10.310.3106.8Nov2633.3-7.37.353.8Dec2428.7-4.74.721.8Prximo perodo25.325.3Total4.349.0323.3Average0.55.435.9BiasMADMSESE6.8

Promedio Mvil Ponderado

DemandaPronstico Promedio Mvil PonderadoTiempoDemandaPronstico

Comparacin 202223212622.166666666722.52924.333333333324.5332727.53630.5314033.833333333334.53837.5382838.3333333333392633.3333333333332428.66666666672725.333333333325

DemandaPronstico Promedio Mvil PonderadoPronstico Promedio MvilTiempoDemandaComparacin Promedios Mviles

Suavizacin ExponencialEjemplo 3PronsticoSuavizacin ExponencialAlpha0.1DatosAnlisis de ErrorMesesDemandaPronsticoErrorAbsoluteSquaredEnero450500.0Febrero505495.010.0010.00100.00Marzo516496.020.0020.00400.00Abril488498.0-10.0010.00100.00Mayo467497.0-30.0030.00900.00Junio554494.060.0060.003600.00Julio510500.010.0010.00100.00Agosto501.0-501.00501.00251001.00Total-441.00641.00256201.00Average-63.0091.5736600.14BiasMADMSESENext period450.900

Suavizacin Exponencial

DemandaPronsticoTiempoDatosPronstico

Sua. Expo. con TendenciaEjemplo 3PronsticoSuavizacin Exponencial Doble o con TendenciaUbicacin del Promedio de los datos (6.5)Beta0.4Alpha0.40123456789101112Anlisis de ErrorMesesVentasPromedio de cada grupoMesesPronstico Suavizado FtTendencia Suavizada TtPronstico con TendenciaErrorAbsolutoSquared112112.02.714.8-2.752.757.56217213.72.315.91.071.071.14320316.42.518.81.191.191.4141918.8419.32.621.9-2.932.938.59524520.82.222.91.071.071.14621623.42.325.7-4.704.7022.13731723.81.625.45.595.5931.19828827.62.530.1-2.132.134.56936929.32.131.44.574.5720.93103735.21033.32.936.10.870.870.7511391136.53.039.5-0.490.490.2412401239.32.942.2-2.232.234.981341.32.643.91754.0Total-0.9029.60104.630Estimacin de Tt-1Average-0.072.478.72Diferencia de Promedios16BiasMADMSEClculo del Promedio2.7Estimacin del Ft-1Promedio global27.0Ajuste de los Datos6.5Clculo del Pronstico12.0

Sua. Expo. con Tendencia

VentasPronstico con Tendencia

Datos WintersCJV1499.21316.51155.5926630.5520.3531.6586.2518.8704.2878.41276.21633.21462.61178.1830606.5513.7543.4604.8528671.3889.7124413611416.31265.7851.3604.8474.6507.3519.8471.4694.9901.31482.71437.51167.71055.7824.7598.9483.2478.1523.3498.1635.5834.61304.5

WintersCJVFuente:VIDAL. H, Carlos Julio (2005). Fundamentos de Gestin de Inventarios. Facultad de Ingeniera - Escuela de Ingeniera Industrial y Estadstica. Universidad del Valle. Santiago de Cali. Colombia p. 80m=4Promedio ao 1878.6167L=12Promedio ao 2892.1083alfa=0.0245164777Promedio ao 3879.2583beta=0.045Promedio ao 4820.1500gama=0.010Valores Iniciales Factor Tendencia (Bo)-1.6241Valor Inicial Factor Promedio (So)888.3611MesDemandaEstimacin Indice EstacionalEstimacin Factor Estacional PromedioEstimacin Factor Estacional NormalizadoFactor PromedioFactor TendenciaFactor EstacionalPronsticoErrorECM1.69361.53171.33310.98580.70260.57420.59460.64600.58470.78571.0195888.3611-1.62411.548411,4991.68911.69201.6936886.7000-1.62571.6935F(0+1)=1501.7584-2.55846.545354692121,3171.48601.53021.5317884.4477-1.65381.5312F(1+1)=1355.6441-39.14411532.262367594431,1561.30671.33191.3331882.4006-1.67141.3329F(2+1)=1176.8883-21.3883457.458469005449261.04910.98490.9858882.1653-1.60710.9865F(3+1)=868.251757.74833334.863086712556310.71560.70190.7026880.9714-1.58860.7027.618.659411.8406140.198678012465200.59160.57370.5742880.0369-1.55920.5744504.978515.3215234.748321206875320.60560.59410.5946878.8580-1.54220.5947522.37529.224885.097274880985860.66900.64540.6460878.0535-1.50910.6462..566.761019.4390377.874002398195190.59320.58420.5847876.8063-1.49740.5848..512.55176.248339.0413141756107040.80670.78490.7857875.8233-1.47440.7859.687.715416.4846271.7432470112118781.00811.01851.0195874.0365-1.48841.0193.891.3926-12.9926168.8074297752121,2761.46741.54691.5484871.3632-1.54151.5475.1351.0416-74.84165601.2692842516131,6331.812611.988623872.1396-1.43761.6953.1473.0865160.113525636.3388751691141,4631.6262Coeficiente872.7729-1.34481.5327.1333.2546129.345416730.2361513649151,1781.31221.000948966871.7329-1.33111.33311161.530116.5699274.5622384828168300.9262869.6904-1.36300.9862858.6265-28.6265819.4773420403176070.678012.000000868.1990-1.36880.7027610.1802-3.680213.5438530653185140.5753867.5038-1.33860.5746497.917515.7825249.0877085323195430.6097867.3301-1.28640.5951515.142428.2576798.4897085269206050.6798867.7560-1.20960.6467559.666145.13392037.0704140041215280.5946867.4365-1.16970.5850506.765721.2343450.8966080881226710.7573865.9714-1.18300.7858680.7702-9.470289.6837603551238901.0055864.9851-1.17421.0194881.52028.179866.9086930358241,2441.4086862.3410-1.24001.54651336.7893-92.78938609.849135635251,3611.5323859.6713-1.30411.69421459.8595-98.85959773.2022386779261,4161.5975859.9778-1.23191.53381315.6080100.692010138.884966734271,2661.4303860.9696-1.13231.33451144.7851120.914914620.4074482069288510.9638859.9212-1.12850.9862847.92893.371111.3642193219296050.6860858.8399-1.12640.7027603.44461.35541.8371584602304750.5393856.9356-1.16130.5744492.8330-18.2330332.4420677919315070.5775855.6946-1.16480.5950509.2345-1.93453.7423994677325200.5928853.2842-1.22070.6464552.6590-32.85901079.7116866505334710.5386850.9279-1.27150.5847498.4994-27.0994734.3789219278346950.7955850.5074-1.23340.7861667.625927.2741743.874491608359011.0337850.1281-1.19511.0198865.784035.51601261.3888720659361,4831.7036851.6252-1.07451.54841312.8738169.826228840.952920273371,4381.7338850.4998-1.07681.69421441.0191-3.519112.3843020746381,1681.4112847.2625-1.17361.53231302.8695-135.169518270.7911997704391,0561.2783844.7409-1.23401.33361129.0713-73.37135383.3453342745408251.0006843.3290-1.24200.9861831.8569-7.156951.2213378597415990.7281842.3376-1.23070.7028591.71917.180951.5656629593424830.5886841.1104-1.23060.5744483.11640.08360.0069914814434780.5835838.9875-1.27060.5948499.7579-21.6579469.0636000438445230.6400837.0277-1.30150.6462541.4707-18.1707330.1749970623454980.6103836.1211-1.28380.5848488.68179.418388.7046901976466360.7803834.1904-1.31280.7858656.2429-20.7429430.2683094979478351.0268832.5217-1.32871.0197849.4084-14.8084219.2879455883481,3051.6081831.4692-1.31631.54861287.055817.4442304.2990186335491,513831.6936-1.24731.69541406.4272106.472811336.4525173135501,192829.1588-1.30501.53131272.4702-80.47026475.4457435903511,076827.3311-1.32841.33331104.0359-28.4359808.601878017652763824.7216-1.38580.9855814.5260-51.52602654.932069031153552822.4040-1.42760.7024578.6114-26.7114713.499390867654434819.3734-1.49940.5739471.5546-37.55461410.349732497655472817.2905-1.52560.5946486.4577-14.1577200.44068214256439812.4143-1.67570.6451527.1090-88.30907798.472467241857448809.6503-1.72450.5845474.1595-25.9595673.89487753758618807.3957-1.74820.7856634.8925-16.9925288.7459134359901807.5518-1.66291.0206821.497979.20216272.9693676958601,194805.0381-1.70101.54801248.0387-53.73872887.8509196238611,395803.8186-1.67951.69581361.999733.30031108.906816801621,194801.5910-1.70401.53091228.3365-34.23651172.1355939329631,071799.9666-1.70041.33331066.47094.329118.741302741664834799.4531-1.64730.9861786.688447.71162276.394751869965576798.3462-1.62300.7026560.417115.4829239.720630367166458796.7673-1.62110.5739457.26781.03221.06544218267431793.4226-1.69830.5941472.8052-41.80521747.67721002968442789.1044-1.81570.6442510.7355-68.93554752.106470394269463787.3894-1.81120.5846460.19862.40145.766623791570701788.1911-1.69410.7867617.169883.73027010.750039563871997791.1541-1.48541.0230802.7231193.876937588.2374781743721,345791.6071-1.39851.54951222.4052122.394814980.4886116885F(72+1)=1340.06073357.9032103884F(72+2)=1207.5966F(72+3)=1049.8791F(72+4)=775.0705F(72+5)=551.2993F(72+6)=449.5254F(72+7)=464.4779F(72+8)=502.7775F(72+9)=455.3887F(72+10)=611.7249F(72+11)=794.0930F(72+12)=1200.5954

MANUEL:

PronsWinterCJV1499.21501.75838908151316.51355.64412302751155.51176.8882787761926868.2517265478630.5618.659447732520.3504.9785013394531.6522.3751815801586.2566.7610184835518.8512.5516950958704.2687.7153633036878.4891.39259134181276.21351.04162801711633.21473.08648128541462.61333.25458588971178.11161.5300803115830858.6265146681606.5610.1801974221513.7497.9174872554543.4515.1424397988604.8559.6660835512528506.7656738254671.3680.7701510207889.7881.520226590212441336.789272740113611459.85950757861416.31315.6079696961265.71144.7851231312851.3847.9289142221604.8603.4445818135474.6492.8329939339507.3509.2345282287519.8552.6589666096471.4498.4994265978694.9667.6259373835901.3865.78396317061482.71312.87375667971437.51441.01913371081167.71302.86949063961055.71129.0712841258824.7831.856908401598.9591.719076455483.2483.1163849213478.1499.7578761665523.3541.4707181218498.1488.6816832609635.5656.2429098609834.6849.4083741711304.51287.0558313861512.91406.427221707611921272.47015436541075.61104.0359258337763814.5260329254551.9578.6114093763434471.5546233172472.3486.4577075172438.8527.1089602885448.2474.1594853096617.9634.8925252223900.7821.49792068581194.31248.0387283031395.31361.99974749641194.11228.33646585051070.81066.4708773705834.4786.6884211971575.9560.4170858568458.3457.2677974123431472.8052294579441.8510.735524009462.6460.1986204399700.9617.1697782186996.6802.72313836311344.81222.40519368991340.06067389781207.59661047681049.8791488673775.0705434074551.2992512417449.5253943912464.4778821007502.7774521152455.3886593711611.7248727549794.09301250821200.5954361434

DemandaPronstico

WintersSipperFuente:SIPPER, Daniel (1998). Planeacin y Control de la Produccin. Editorial. McGraw-Hill. Mxico. Pag 135 -141m=3Promedio ao 1126.75L=4Promedio ao 2145.50alfa=0.2035134049Promedio ao 3167.50beta=0.001gama=0.585Valores Iniciales Factor Tendencia (Bo)=5.0938Valor Inicial Factor Promedio (So)116.5625MesDemandaEstimacin Indice EstacionalEstimacin Factor Estacional PromedioFactor Estacional NormalizadoFactor PromedioFactor TendenciaFactor Estacional0.5091.8701.226116.56255.09380.395PronsticoErrorECM1600.5040.5100.509120.90115.09300.501F(0+1)=61.8876-1.88763.562915881322341.8841.8751.870125.81495.09281.864F(1+1)=235.6468-1.64682.712082577631631.1691.2281.226131.33475.09321.235F(2+1)=160.42902.57106.61006426464500.4390.3960.395134.39305.09120.382F(3+1)=53.9544-3.954415.63700843375690.501139.10205.09080.498.69.9416-0.94160.886680510762661.8614.0094.000143.88675.09051.855268.8041-2.80417.863170658971881.270Coeficiente149.64775.09121.247183.93294.067116.54105824738590.3850.9976563933154.69975.09120.382..59.0735-0.07350.00540115279840.525161.57995.09290.511..79.61974.380319.186646232103101.879166.76095.09301.857.309.19700.80300.6447530148112121.247171.46975.09261.241F(10+1)214.3546-2.35465.544127821912640.365174.76715.09080.373F(11+1)67.3658-3.365811.3286309744F(12+1)=91.89167.5435449808F(12+2)=343.5162F(12+3)=235.8212F(12+4)=72.6985F(12+5)=102.2955F(12+6)=381.3383F(12+7)=261.0903F(12+8)=82.18180.0000

MANUEL:MANUEL:

Datos WintersDS602341635069266188598431021264

Demanda

Pronos WDS6061.8875687752234235.6468401797163160.42899547565053.95436574356969.9416371439266268.8041345651188183.93293001695959.07349253478479.6197435883310309.1970348608212214.35459716766467.365803169391.8915837714343.5161619259235.821236671372.6984508974102.295487176381.3382823221261.090286305982.1817671145

DemandaPronstico

Hoja1