Crecimiento, restriccin externa y distribucin del ingreso
Qu determina la magnitud del crecimiento?
=
Por qu hay cierto volumen de transacciones?
La magnitud del crecimiento depende de la demanda solvente, del gasto que se realiza en adquirir mercancas.
Quines gastan? El sector publico (G), el sector privado (consumidores y empresarios) y el resto del mundo (exportaciones)
En qu se gasta? En dos clases de bienes: los que se consumen sin modificar la capacidad productiva y los que s modifican la capacidad productiva
Cuando aumenta la actividad tambin aumenta la inversin y la capacidad instalada
Grfico3
216370.1113087713179.7340527462
241871.85842410916698.5836702705
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479965.81486853945017.8108762584
PIB
Equipo Durable de Produccion (eje derecho)
Hoja1
Oferta Global
PIBImportacinEquipo Durable de produccin
I 93216,37020,08913,180
II 93241,87219,95816,699
III 93242,64623,11618,923
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14,15116,229
10,36716,946
12,95718,854
13,29423,456
16,24321,036
12,00124,803
14,29924,992
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16,51226,845
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20,47940,775
21,22243,137
18,68835,281
16,39529,061
21,30423,714
Hoja1
PIB
Importacin
Hoja2
PIB
Equipo Durable de Produccion (eje derecho)
Hoja3
Nacional
Importado
Inversin en Equipo Durable de Produccin por origen
Por qu hay desempleo en la Argentina?
Qu determina el nivel de empleo?
Cuanto ms crece la economa ms trabajadores se necesitan Pero el crecimiento puede ser inferior al necesario para emplear a todos los trabajadoresAunque se alcance el pleno empleo, cuando crece la poblacin tambin aumenta la cantidad de trabajadores la economa tiene que crecer lo suficiente para emplear a los nuevos trabajadores
por qu no se incrementa el Gasto Pblico hasta alcanzar el pleno empleo???
porque hay un lmite mximo al crecimiento impuesto por la restriccin externaLa restriccin externa es la causa del desempleo en la Argentina
El lmite al crecimiento de la economa es la restriccin externa
Qu es la restriccin externa?
La restriccin externa es la incapacidad que enfrenta un pas para disponer de todas las divisas que necesita para:
i) importar los bienes que no produceii) controlar el tipo de cambioiii) controlar la tasa de inters
El ingreso y egreso de divisas de un pas queda registrado por su Balance de Pagos
Cuando el BP es positivo (negativo), ingresan (egresan) ms divisas de las que salen (entran)
Balance de Pagos
Cuenta Corriente + Cuenta Capital
Balance Comercial
Intereses Utilidades y Dividendos
Inversin directa
Inversin de portafolio
Prstamos y crditos
Operaciones con el FMI
Compra-venta de ttulos valores
Formacin de activos externos del sector privado no financiero (ahorro)
En la Argentina la Cuenta Capital es estructuralmente deficitaria
Todos los componentes de la Cuenta Corriente tambin son deficitarios, excepto por la balanza comercial:el crecimiento es posible gracias al supervit comercial
Cuando aumenta la actividad y la inversin tambin aumentan las importaciones
Grfico1
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PIB
Importacin
Hoja1
Oferta Global
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Hoja1
PIB
Importacin
Hoja2
Hoja3
La inversin en bienes importados crece ms rpido que la inversin en bienes nacionales: el supervit comercial tiende a agotarse
Grfico4
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21303.573682172623714.2371940857479965.814868539
Nacional
Importado
PIB
Inversin en Equipo Durable de Produccin por origen
Hoja1
Oferta Global
PIBImportacinEquipo Durable de produccin
I 93216,37020,08913,180
II 93241,87219,95816,699
III 93242,64623,11618,923
IV 93245,13224,94720,330
I 94232,94527,12518,355
II 94257,47725,61420,542
III 94253,46826,86921,886
IV 94257,34227,12122,024
I 95237,96826,84117,978
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III 95242,21522,90616,670
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II 98301,20839,12627,325
III 98293,31541,37926,082
IV 98286,26836,90424,1968,7454,435
I 99265,02533,82119,04611,2875,412
II 99286,41232,08621,19112,1246,799
III 99278,47336,49923,49412,3198,011
IV 99283,56635,67622,9579,9008,455
I 00264,55634,19117,89812,1578,385
II 00285,27533,27219,66212,8009,086
III 00276,76835,68120,79512,5359,489
IV 00278,09234,72020,56310,0817,897
I 01259,20034,45515,43610,0616,176
II 01284,79631,88516,88010,1626,508
III 01263,12729,29214,6679,8027,382
IV 01248,86523,00612,1688,5916,895
I 02216,84914,6777,06110,8768,550
II 02246,31514,0288,23511,3929,341
III 02237,41714,7838,02811,17610,225
IV 02240,36115,7609,6759,20410,126
I 03228,59616,8758,65111,65012,024
II 03265,40219,11011,24012,08913,385
III 03261,53521,60912,44412,56713,792
IV 03268,56123,91115,60410,82813,611
I 04254,33026,29215,41912,57614,749
II 04284,37627,23017,35411,96514,117
III 04284,39229,85819,44111,16213,034
IV 04293,46730,82620,7559,02210,025
I 05274,59530,41017,96710,00311,189
II 05313,92735,33023,36810,96912,525
III 05310,59335,18324,17611,27211,685
IV 05319,93936,28326,7818,5659,333
I 06298,69635,82422,3339,50710,155
II 06338,24437,72226,0779,19711,598
III 06337,74242,28229,8089,64310,920
IV 06347,57942,47430,3807,0278,410
I 07322,44943,22027,3137,7099,171
II 07367,49244,85231,8127,2067,461
III 07367,53950,29336,7506,7985,370
IV 07379,20052,37737,2804,7602,301
I 08349,94552,78236,8046,0852,150
II 08396,22755,88839,2915,8532,175
III 08393,03957,04942,7096,9932,682
IV 08394,56551,90735,9955,7422,909
I 09357,09640,02226,5507,1524,088
II 09393,18141,17532,0017,2185,226
III 09391,67945,23533,6218,9726,632
IV 09404,86149,78833,6147,4637,956
I 10381,22252,05633,3259,0058,349
II 10439,76755,81643,3589,19910,242
III 10425,32362,15152,25510,02810,728
IV 10442,20966,07148,5828,2029,765
I 11419,02362,68144,45010,29513,072
II 11479,96469,74061,25310,66113,515
III 11464,88373,12764,35912,62714,154
IV 11474,41572,56053,9709,38412,949
I 12440,88463,59045,45611,44014,636
II 12479,96659,99645,01811,87417,934
14,15116,229
10,36716,946
12,95718,854
13,29423,456
16,24321,036
12,00124,803
14,29924,992
14,75027,959
14,73821,257
11,13015,420
13,68818,313
13,40220,219
13,80219,812
11,49821,828
16,51226,845
17,50334,752
17,13331,449
14,21730,234
20,47940,775
21,22243,137
18,68835,281
16,39529,061
21,30423,714
Hoja1
PIB
Importacin
Hoja2
PIB
Equipo Durable de Produccion (eje derecho)
Hoja3
Nacional
Importado
PIB
Inversin en Equipo Durable de Produccin por origen
Cul es la relacin entre crecimiento, distribucin del ingreso y restriccin externa?
El ingreso nacional se distribuye en el salario de los trabajadores y la ganancia de los capitalistas
Mientras aumente el nivel de actividad real (q) podrn incrementarse simultneamente el salario real y la tasa de ganancia, sin que uno gane a costa del otro
En cambio, si el nivel de actividad alcanza su lmite mximo dado por el equilibrio externo, la mejora de una clase ser a costa de la otra. Se vuelve un juego de suma cero
Sin embargo, la puja precio-salario hace que el nivel de precios aumente.
Cuando hay mucha inflacin, los productos nacionales tienen dificultades para competir con los importados: aumentan las importaciones, se achica el supervit comercial y se acerca la restriccin externa
Antes de llegar al lmite externo todo aumento de salarios es trasladado a precios por los capitalistas
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