PPT2_Crecimiento y Restriccion Externa (Sin Formulas)

Crecimiento, restriccin externa y distribucin del ingreso

Qu determina la magnitud del crecimiento?

=

Por qu hay cierto volumen de transacciones?

La magnitud del crecimiento depende de la demanda solvente, del gasto que se realiza en adquirir mercancas.

Quines gastan? El sector publico (G), el sector privado (consumidores y empresarios) y el resto del mundo (exportaciones)

En qu se gasta? En dos clases de bienes: los que se consumen sin modificar la capacidad productiva y los que s modifican la capacidad productiva

Cuando aumenta la actividad tambin aumenta la inversin y la capacidad instalada

Grfico3

216370.1113087713179.7340527462

241871.85842410916698.5836702705

242645.52236804418923.3488104637

245132.42882536820330.1843855245

232945.32572962918355.3452759914

257476.89464291520542.3181281119

253467.77805494421886.0645996472

257341.54371777222023.6950072009

237968.10310287817977.6005664993

248093.6392800816237.565925942

242214.69911402516670.3526582549

244467.96458085717183.8687191611

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260751.9251589619426.0837429739

262166.96378531120733.4511114369

267020.04669523421400.1755754079

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281769.80075624123673.2089483657

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301207.59782335527324.8916744569

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286267.84928493724195.8426431922

265024.63589177219046.3723147504

286412.32691149521191.1806112326

278472.69348023323493.934808579

283566.39920337222956.8370603547

264555.91806894217897.8032772163

285275.17590344819662.1911493555

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278091.6763933220563.1923559982

259199.87389432215436.2013031206

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216849.4949689427061.077433609

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425323.17240014352254.7237804102

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419023.16655501444450.2304950586

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474414.82102834953969.5368775417

440884.28062227845456.0569435559

479965.81486853945017.8108762584

PIB

Equipo Durable de Produccion (eje derecho)

Hoja1

Oferta Global

PIBImportacinEquipo Durable de produccin

I 93216,37020,08913,180

II 93241,87219,95816,699

III 93242,64623,11618,923

IV 93245,13224,94720,330

I 94232,94527,12518,355

II 94257,47725,61420,542

III 94253,46826,86921,886

IV 94257,34227,12122,024

I 95237,96826,84117,978

II 95248,09422,17616,238

III 95242,21522,90616,670

IV 95244,46824,34017,184

I 96236,56625,58415,486

II 96260,75226,39919,426

III 96262,16730,59820,733

IV 96267,02030,55621,400

I 97256,38832,68019,330

II 97281,77034,17523,673

III 97284,09238,58925,474

IV 97287,51538,09326,360

I 98271,70238,20724,438

II 98301,20839,12627,325

III 98293,31541,37926,082

IV 98286,26836,90424,1968,7454,435

I 99265,02533,82119,04611,2875,412

II 99286,41232,08621,19112,1246,799

III 99278,47336,49923,49412,3198,011

IV 99283,56635,67622,9579,9008,455

I 00264,55634,19117,89812,1578,385

II 00285,27533,27219,66212,8009,086

III 00276,76835,68120,79512,5359,489

IV 00278,09234,72020,56310,0817,897

I 01259,20034,45515,43610,0616,176

II 01284,79631,88516,88010,1626,508

III 01263,12729,29214,6679,8027,382

IV 01248,86523,00612,1688,5916,895

I 02216,84914,6777,06110,8768,550

II 02246,31514,0288,23511,3929,341

III 02237,41714,7838,02811,17610,225

IV 02240,36115,7609,6759,20410,126

I 03228,59616,8758,65111,65012,024

II 03265,40219,11011,24012,08913,385

III 03261,53521,60912,44412,56713,792

IV 03268,56123,91115,60410,82813,611

I 04254,33026,29215,41912,57614,749

II 04284,37627,23017,35411,96514,117

III 04284,39229,85819,44111,16213,034

IV 04293,46730,82620,7559,02210,025

I 05274,59530,41017,96710,00311,189

II 05313,92735,33023,36810,96912,525

III 05310,59335,18324,17611,27211,685

IV 05319,93936,28326,7818,5659,333

I 06298,69635,82422,3339,50710,155

II 06338,24437,72226,0779,19711,598

III 06337,74242,28229,8089,64310,920

IV 06347,57942,47430,3807,0278,410

I 07322,44943,22027,3137,7099,171

II 07367,49244,85231,8127,2067,461

III 07367,53950,29336,7506,7985,370

IV 07379,20052,37737,2804,7602,301

I 08349,94552,78236,8046,0852,150

II 08396,22755,88839,2915,8532,175

III 08393,03957,04942,7096,9932,682

IV 08394,56551,90735,9955,7422,909

I 09357,09640,02226,5507,1524,088

II 09393,18141,17532,0017,2185,226

III 09391,67945,23533,6218,9726,632

IV 09404,86149,78833,6147,4637,956

I 10381,22252,05633,3259,0058,349

II 10439,76755,81643,3589,19910,242

III 10425,32362,15152,25510,02810,728

IV 10442,20966,07148,5828,2029,765

I 11419,02362,68144,45010,29513,072

II 11479,96469,74061,25310,66113,515

III 11464,88373,12764,35912,62714,154

IV 11474,41572,56053,9709,38412,949

I 12440,88463,59045,45611,44014,636

II 12479,96659,99645,01811,87417,934

14,15116,229

10,36716,946

12,95718,854

13,29423,456

16,24321,036

12,00124,803

14,29924,992

14,75027,959

14,73821,257

11,13015,420

13,68818,313

13,40220,219

13,80219,812

11,49821,828

16,51226,845

17,50334,752

17,13331,449

14,21730,234

20,47940,775

21,22243,137

18,68835,281

16,39529,061

21,30423,714

Hoja1

PIB

Importacin

Hoja2

PIB


Hoja3

Nacional

Importado

Inversin en Equipo Durable de Produccin por origen

Por qu hay desempleo en la Argentina?

Qu determina el nivel de empleo?

Cuanto ms crece la economa ms trabajadores se necesitan Pero el crecimiento puede ser inferior al necesario para emplear a todos los trabajadoresAunque se alcance el pleno empleo, cuando crece la poblacin tambin aumenta la cantidad de trabajadores la economa tiene que crecer lo suficiente para emplear a los nuevos trabajadores

por qu no se incrementa el Gasto Pblico hasta alcanzar el pleno empleo???

porque hay un lmite mximo al crecimiento impuesto por la restriccin externaLa restriccin externa es la causa del desempleo en la Argentina

El lmite al crecimiento de la economa es la restriccin externa

Qu es la restriccin externa?

La restriccin externa es la incapacidad que enfrenta un pas para disponer de todas las divisas que necesita para:

i) importar los bienes que no produceii) controlar el tipo de cambioiii) controlar la tasa de inters

El ingreso y egreso de divisas de un pas queda registrado por su Balance de Pagos

Cuando el BP es positivo (negativo), ingresan (egresan) ms divisas de las que salen (entran)

Balance de Pagos

Cuenta Corriente + Cuenta Capital

Balance Comercial

Intereses Utilidades y Dividendos

Inversin directa

Inversin de portafolio

Prstamos y crditos

Operaciones con el FMI

Compra-venta de ttulos valores

Formacin de activos externos del sector privado no financiero (ahorro)

En la Argentina la Cuenta Capital es estructuralmente deficitaria

Todos los componentes de la Cuenta Corriente tambin son deficitarios, excepto por la balanza comercial:el crecimiento es posible gracias al supervit comercial

Cuando aumenta la actividad y la inversin tambin aumentan las importaciones

Grfico1

216370.1113087720088.8409354697

241871.85842410919957.8744441826

242645.52236804423116.3637488122

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PIB

Importacin

Hoja1

Oferta Global

PIBImportacin

I 93216,37020,089

II 93241,87219,958

III 93242,64623,116

IV 93245,13224,947

I 94232,94527,125

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I 96236,56625,584

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IV 96267,02030,556

I 97256,38832,680

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III 97284,09238,589

IV 97287,51538,093

I 98271,70238,207

II 98301,20839,126

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IV 98286,26836,904

I 99265,02533,821

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III 99278,47336,499

IV 99283,56635,676

I 00264,55634,191

II 00285,27533,272

III 00276,76835,681

IV 00278,09234,720

I 01259,20034,455

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III 01263,12729,292

IV 01248,86523,006

I 02216,84914,677

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I 03228,59616,875

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I 04254,33026,292

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I 09357,09640,022

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I 10381,22252,056

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I 11419,02362,681

II 11479,96469,740

III 11464,88373,127

IV 11474,41572,560

I 12440,88463,590

II 12479,96659,996

Hoja1

PIB

Importacin

Hoja2

Hoja3

La inversin en bienes importados crece ms rpido que la inversin en bienes nacionales: el supervit comercial tiende a agotarse

Grfico4

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10875.89907963548550.1846633385260751.92515896

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11175.625815568310224.5497598396267020.046695234

9204.033192477810125.7951930433256387.856694618

11649.533321539512023.6756268262281769.800756241

12089.277074547513384.6992444914284092.267477787

12567.293240730313792.4289949332287515.345560875

10827.507029536113610.9508110976271702.367681833

12576.266042954314748.6256315026301207.597823355

11965.292164268314116.5999569387293315.40364077

11162.194615727113033.6480274651286267.849284937

9021.699944351210024.6723703992265024.635891772

10002.522190548311188.6584206843286412.326911495

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7026.66857095818409.5327321625259199.873894322

7709.16238345079170.9216885121284795.76294893

7206.32177435957460.8330907143263126.50540141

6797.79325564145370.3083625385248864.555222607

4759.59522726952301.4822063396216849.494968942

6085.38353678042149.7032361485246314.633190662

5852.70240724882175.2791651855237416.866754844

6993.28615630312682.1831623629240361.39209718

5741.70803730562909.3630577046228595.882419424

7151.575871874088.4399355733265402.477652413

7217.61184888275226.1152019969261534.522631368

8971.94313499666632.4732278362268560.966797359

7462.90255630827956.3031383141254330.423423323

9004.9588960928348.6276237284375.610568705

9199.272673965710241.6599519499284392.059937219

10027.51793129710727.9783832624293467.060597649

8201.79639267039764.7065536079274594.502568454

10295.142346199913072.4478759038313927.290339496

10661.028398943513515.3986979733310593.080480962

12626.66725861414153.8414660563319939.240812271

9384.270054111612949.1874992059298695.561741825

11440.171353993914636.4430286108338243.727514387

11874.382701319517933.6033491467337741.885212778

14150.811860033416229.3570481112347578.707419926

10366.937864477616945.6363761888322448.871168644

12957.456934012518854.103148462367492.351665298

13294.21837739523455.662935799367538.727615941

16243.456526105421036.486312059379199.6613356

12000.912002868724803.1041800994349945.322916485

14299.231637599524991.7233101649396227.240069836

14750.130715178527959.0821382955393039.229963784

14738.015562886921256.8094769239394564.940050567

11129.990695650615420.2383077537357096.415541093

13687.958608796318312.7638682707393181.278878916

13401.732456622620218.9160107084391678.888276034

13801.87826383719812.1213987235404860.956234104

11497.655756501321827.6105823392381221.6340666

16512.143623259726845.3718691135439766.593711355

17502.546320878534752.1774595317425323.172400143

17133.047525102331449.2318407056442208.808467283

14216.721218596930233.5092764617419023.166555014

20478.575363218240774.5599981081479963.678186779

21221.742631374243137.4166894302464882.753013838

18688.449266880435281.0876106614474414.821028349

16394.900542679429061.1564008765440884.280622278

21303.573682172623714.2371940857479965.814868539

Nacional

Importado

PIB


Hoja1

Oferta Global

PIBImportacinEquipo Durable de produccin

I 93216,37020,08913,180

II 93241,87219,95816,699

III 93242,64623,11618,923

IV 93245,13224,94720,330

I 94232,94527,12518,355

II 94257,47725,61420,542

III 94253,46826,86921,886

IV 94257,34227,12122,024

I 95237,96826,84117,978

II 95248,09422,17616,238

III 95242,21522,90616,670

IV 95244,46824,34017,184

I 96236,56625,58415,486

II 96260,75226,39919,426

III 96262,16730,59820,733

IV 96267,02030,55621,400

I 97256,38832,68019,330

II 97281,77034,17523,673

III 97284,09238,58925,474

IV 97287,51538,09326,360

I 98271,70238,20724,438

II 98301,20839,12627,325

III 98293,31541,37926,082

IV 98286,26836,90424,1968,7454,435

I 99265,02533,82119,04611,2875,412

II 99286,41232,08621,19112,1246,799

III 99278,47336,49923,49412,3198,011

IV 99283,56635,67622,9579,9008,455

I 00264,55634,19117,89812,1578,385

II 00285,27533,27219,66212,8009,086

III 00276,76835,68120,79512,5359,489

IV 00278,09234,72020,56310,0817,897

I 01259,20034,45515,43610,0616,176

II 01284,79631,88516,88010,1626,508

III 01263,12729,29214,6679,8027,382

IV 01248,86523,00612,1688,5916,895

I 02216,84914,6777,06110,8768,550

II 02246,31514,0288,23511,3929,341

III 02237,41714,7838,02811,17610,225

IV 02240,36115,7609,6759,20410,126

I 03228,59616,8758,65111,65012,024

II 03265,40219,11011,24012,08913,385

III 03261,53521,60912,44412,56713,792

IV 03268,56123,91115,60410,82813,611

I 04254,33026,29215,41912,57614,749

II 04284,37627,23017,35411,96514,117

III 04284,39229,85819,44111,16213,034

IV 04293,46730,82620,7559,02210,025

I 05274,59530,41017,96710,00311,189

II 05313,92735,33023,36810,96912,525

III 05310,59335,18324,17611,27211,685

IV 05319,93936,28326,7818,5659,333

I 06298,69635,82422,3339,50710,155

II 06338,24437,72226,0779,19711,598

III 06337,74242,28229,8089,64310,920

IV 06347,57942,47430,3807,0278,410

I 07322,44943,22027,3137,7099,171

II 07367,49244,85231,8127,2067,461

III 07367,53950,29336,7506,7985,370

IV 07379,20052,37737,2804,7602,301

I 08349,94552,78236,8046,0852,150

II 08396,22755,88839,2915,8532,175

III 08393,03957,04942,7096,9932,682

IV 08394,56551,90735,9955,7422,909

I 09357,09640,02226,5507,1524,088

II 09393,18141,17532,0017,2185,226

III 09391,67945,23533,6218,9726,632

IV 09404,86149,78833,6147,4637,956

I 10381,22252,05633,3259,0058,349

II 10439,76755,81643,3589,19910,242

III 10425,32362,15152,25510,02810,728

IV 10442,20966,07148,5828,2029,765

I 11419,02362,68144,45010,29513,072

II 11479,96469,74061,25310,66113,515

III 11464,88373,12764,35912,62714,154

IV 11474,41572,56053,9709,38412,949

I 12440,88463,59045,45611,44014,636

II 12479,96659,99645,01811,87417,934

14,15116,229

10,36716,946

12,95718,854

13,29423,456

16,24321,036

12,00124,803

14,29924,992

14,75027,959

14,73821,257

11,13015,420

13,68818,313

13,40220,219

13,80219,812

11,49821,828

16,51226,845

17,50334,752

17,13331,449

14,21730,234

20,47940,775

21,22243,137

18,68835,281

16,39529,061

21,30423,714

Hoja1

PIB

Importacin

Hoja2

PIB


Hoja3

Nacional

Importado

PIB


Cul es la relacin entre crecimiento, distribucin del ingreso y restriccin externa?

El ingreso nacional se distribuye en el salario de los trabajadores y la ganancia de los capitalistas

Mientras aumente el nivel de actividad real (q) podrn incrementarse simultneamente el salario real y la tasa de ganancia, sin que uno gane a costa del otro

En cambio, si el nivel de actividad alcanza su lmite mximo dado por el equilibrio externo, la mejora de una clase ser a costa de la otra. Se vuelve un juego de suma cero

Sin embargo, la puja precio-salario hace que el nivel de precios aumente.

Cuando hay mucha inflacin, los productos nacionales tienen dificultades para competir con los importados: aumentan las importaciones, se achica el supervit comercial y se acerca la restriccin externa

Antes de llegar al lmite externo todo aumento de salarios es trasladado a precios por los capitalistas

PPT2_Crecimiento y Restriccion Externa (Sin Formulas)

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