CMO 2014 Presentation
Transcript of CMO 2014 Presentation
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Copyright © 2014 Boeing. All rights reserved.
The statements contained herein are based on good faith assumptions and are to be used for general i nformation purposes only. These statements do not constitute an offer, promise, warranty orguarantee of performance.
Boeing Commercial AirplanesJuly 2014
July 2014
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Copyright © 2014 Boeing. All rights reserved.
Twenty-year traffic andproduct forecast
All regions of the world
• 169 airlines / groups
• 63 traffic flows
All jets 30 seats and above
• No turbo props
• No business jets
Freighters
Scheduled andnonscheduled flying
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Productstrategy
Long-rangebusiness plan
Suppliers andairline customers
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Accurate
Conservative
Under-forecastedsingle-aisles
Over-forecasted largeand regional jets
Fleet consists of all jet aircraft with at least 90 seats
SOURCES: CMO 1994, CMO 2004, ASCEND
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
2004-2013
0
4,000
8,000
12,000
16,000
20,000
1994-2013
Medium-term
Long-term
2004 CMOForecast
1994 CMOForecast
Actual
Actual
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What’s trending in aviation? 20-year traffic and airplane forecastProduct strategy & development
Agenda
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Strong, resilient,growing marketexpected to continue
What’s trending in aviation?
Passengers flyingwhere they wantwhen they want
Single-aisle is fastestgrowing, mostdynamic segment
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4,000 new markets Low cost carrier willcontinue fast growth
Versatility drivesgrowth
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>75% of recent deliveriesand orders in medium-sizespace
• Versatile and flexible for
expansion and frequency
• Efficient across marketspectrum with lower risk
Market focus will remain inthis size space (737 MAX 8)
Single-aisle backlog and forecast
79%76% 70-75%
2010-2013deliveries
Order backlogsince 2010
Futuredemand
Small S-A
Large S-A
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160
150
170
seats
Average number of seats last 15 years
SOURCE: Ascend, single-aisle airplanes excluding regional jets and prop aircraft, all stage lengths
737 MAX 8
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
2,000-3,000 nmi
FlexibilityMore markets
More frequencyPassengerpreference
EfficiencyUnit cost
Fuel per seatLCC growth
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20-year traffic and airplane forecast
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reca
Fuelprice
Airlinestrategies &
businessmodels
InfrastructureEconomic
growth
Highspeed
railEnvironmentAirplanecapabilities
Marketliberalization
Emergingmarkets
CurrentMarketOutlook
2014-2033
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0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
1 9 8 0
1 9 8 1
1 9 8 2
1 9 8 3
1 9 8 4
1 9 8 5
1 9 8 6
1 9 8 7
1 9 8 8
1 9 8 9
1 9 9 0
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1 9 9 9
2 0 0 0
2 0 0 1
2 0 0 2
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2 0 0 5
2 0 0 6
2 0 0 7
2 0 0 8
2 0 0 9
2 0 1 0
2 0 1 1
2 0 1 2
2 0 1 3
Resilient, growing market expected to continueRPKs (trillions)
RPKs = Revenue Passenger KilometersSOURCE: ICAO scheduled traffic
4 recessions
2 financial crises
2 Gulf wars
1 oil shock
1 near pandemic (SARS)
9/11
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TradeGDP level
GDP per capitaLabor force
Network structure
InfrastructureBusiness modelType of service
Regulatory environmentDemand
Macroeconomics
Value of service
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2013 to 2033
3.2%World
economy(GDP)
5.0% Airline
traffic(RPK)
4.7%Cargotraffic(RTK)
Numberof airline
passengers4.2%
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0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
World
SOURCE: August OAG
Index 1993=1.00
FrequencyGrowth
NonstopMarkets
AverageAirplaneSize
Air TravelGrowth
8 D li i k d
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787 Dreamliner opening new markets aroundthe world As of June 30, 2014
Delhi
Birmingham
Melbourne
Sydney
Tokyo
San Jose
San Diego
Boston
Addis Ababa
Washington
Houston
Lagos
Denver
Stockholm
New York
Bangkok
Oslo Helsinki
San Francisco
Chengdu
London
Austin
Copenhagen
Los AngelesOakland
Orlando
Current new nonstop routes flown with the 787:
Fort Lauderdale
Announced
In operation
Delhi-Birmingham (AI) Houston-Lagos (UA) Tokyo-San Jose (NH) Stockholm-Fort Lauderdale (DY)
Delhi-Melbourne (AI) Tokyo-San Diego (JL) Addis Ababa-Dulles (ET) Stockholm-Bangkok (DY)
Delhi-Sydney (AI) Tokyo-Boston (JL) Oslo-Bangkok (DY) Oslo-New York (DY)
Denver-Tokyo (UA) Tokyo-Helsinki (JL) Stockholm-New York (DY) Oslo-Fort Lauderdale (DY)
London-Austin (BA)
787Operators:
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They’ve been telling it for 15 years and still… nothing
SOURCE: Airbus Annual Press Conference, 13 January 2014
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Capacity Frequency Cities served Seats per flight
2000 2014
Top 25 long-haul airports
SOURCE: Industry schedules
+58% +60%
-2%
+46%
304299
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Airplane deliveries: 36,7702014 - 2033
Market value: $5.2T2014 - 2033
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
Regional jets7%
Single-aisle70%
Smallwide-body
12%
Largewide-body
2%
Mediumwide-body
9%
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
Regional jets2%
Single-aisle49%
Smallwide-body
22%
Largewide-body
5%
Mediumwide-body
22%
2,490
25,680
4,520
6203,460
$100B
$2,560B
$1,140B
$240B
$1,160B
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Units
36,770
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
2013 2033
5,410Retained fleet
15,500Replacement
42%
21,270Growth
58%
42,180
20,910
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Africa
Annual GDP growth, 2013 – 2033
SOURCE: IHS Economics
1.9
4.4
4.7
1.5
2.5
2.7
3.2
3.3
3.8
3.9
4.7
Northeast Asia
Southeast Asia
AsiaPacific
Europe
North America
Oceania
World
CIS
Latin America
MiddleEast
South
AsiaChina 6.2
6.5
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0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000
Within Asia Pacific*
Within China
Within North America
Within Europe
Middle East - Asia Pacific
Europe - Asia Pacific
North Atlantic
Within Latin America
Trans-Pacific
Within/to CIS
North America - Latin America
Europe - Latin America
Africa - Europe
RPKs, billions
*Does NOT include travel within China
WorldAverageGrowth:5.0%
3.5%
7.4%
6.9%
4.3%
4.5%4.7%
4.9%
4.9%
5.3%
3.1%
2.3%
6.6%
6.3%2013 traffic
Added traffic2014-2033
Annualgrowth %
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39%
17%
12%
7%
3%
3%
20%
New airplane deliveries by region2014 –2033
Market value by region2014 –2033
37%
21%
8%
8%
3%
3%
20%
36,770 $5.2T
Region $B
Asia Pacific 2,020
Europe 1,040
North America 870
Middle East 640
Latin America 340
C.I.S. 150
Africa 140
World Total $5,200B
Region Airplanes
Asia Pacific 13,460
Europe 7,450
North America 7,550
Middle East 2,950
Latin America 2,950
C.I.S. 1,330
Africa 1,080
World Total 36,770
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RTKs = Revenue Tonne Kilometers
0
50
100
150
200
250
1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012
R T K s ( b i l l i o
n s )
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2014 to 2033Freighters
Delivery units
2013Freighters
1,690
2033Freighters
2,730
Share of fleet
2,170
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
960
590
370
250
Large production >80 tonnes
Wide-body conversions40-120 tonnes
Medium wide-body production 40-80 tonnes
Standard-body conversions
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0
100
200
300400
500
600
700
New freighter deliveries: 8402014 –2033
A i r p l a n e
u n i t s
Market value: $240 billion2014 –2033
M a r k e t v a l u e
Medium40-80 tonnes
30%
Medium 40-80 tonnes
21%
$50B
Standard80 tonnes
79%
$190B
Standard80 tonnes
70%
0
50
100
150
200
250
250
590
$0B0
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Product strategy & development
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More value to our customers in all markets Efficiency designed-in from the start
Environmental performance
Long-range, fast, reliable
Operational commonality
Passenger experience
Low operating cost
Standardization
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256
295
319
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
2010 2011 2012 2013 1Q14
Backlog ($B)
Model
Region
Single-Aisle
46%
Twin-Aisle
52%
747
737
767
787
777 Large2%
374
L.America& Africa
AsiaPacific
Leasing,Gov't &BBJ
NorthAmerica
ME,
Central&S. Asia
China,East &SE Asia
Europe&
Russia
374
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Superior value, efficient market coverage
737-900ER
200
150
100
500
450
400
350
300
250
S e a t s
200
150
100
500
450
400
350
300
250
S e a t s
737-700
737-800
747-8
787-9
777-200ER
777-300ER
787-8
767-300ER
737 MAX 9
737 MAX 8
737 MAX 7
787-9
747-8
787-8
787-10
Current Boeing Future Boeing
777-8X
777-9X
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Superior value, efficient market coverage
A321neo
A320neo
A319neo
A380
A330-300
A350-900
A350-1000
A330-200 A350-800
200
150
100
500
450
400
350
300
250
550
600
S e a t s
200
150
100
500
450
400
350
300
250
550
600
S e a t s
Airbus Future Boeing
747-8
777-9X
777-8X
787-10
787-9
787-8
737 MAX 9
737 MAX 8
737 MAX 7
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Strong, growing market being driven by customers flying where they want,
when they wantSingle-aisle -- fastest growing and most dynamic segment -- fueling forecast
With the most comprehensive widebody lineup in the industry, Boeing will beable to meet customers’ needs now and in the future
Things to remember
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For more information, please visit our CMO website:http://www.boeing.com/cmo
You can also visit my blog, Randy’s Journal:
http://boeingblogs.com/randy/