Decisiones de retiro, sostenibilidad del sistema de pensiones y viabilidad financiera de la ley de...

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Decisiones de retiro, sostenibilidad del sistema de pensiones y viabilidad financiera de la ley de dependencia José M. Labeaga 23 de marzo de 2009

Transcript of Decisiones de retiro, sostenibilidad del sistema de pensiones y viabilidad financiera de la ley de...

  • Decisiones de retiro, sostenibilidad del sistema de pensiones y viabilidad financiera de la ley de dependenciaJos M. Labeaga

    23 de marzo de 2009

  • ObjetivosAnlisis de la sostenibilidad del sistema de bienestar (en especial del sistema de pensiones) bajo las restricciones financieras del la nueva ley que cubre la dependenciaRealizar propuestas de co-pago para asegurar la sostenibilidadAnalizar las decisions de retiro con el fin de predecir situaciones a nivel agregado (por simulacin) que hagan compatible la adecuacin de las pensiones a nivel individual con la sostenibilidad del sistema a nivel macroeconmicoAnalizamos el consumo por edades (para ver si es posible realizar reformas en el sistema sanitario que permitan eliminar la cobertura universal para determinados pensionistas)Analizamos las decisiones de jubilacin, individual y conjuntamente (para chequear si el sistema es sostenible con los actuales patrones de retiro)Qu cambios se han de introducir para que el nuevo sistema de bienestar, que incluye la cobertura de la dependencia, sea sostenible a largo plazo?

  • individuomercadobienessector pblicoimpuestos S. S.saluddepend.pension.Bienestar individual (adecuacin)Bienestar social (sostenibilidad)oferta

  • Descripcin de los datos

  • Consumo

  • Descripcin de los datos

  • Descripcin de los datos

  • Descripcin de los datos

  • Descripcin de los datos

  • Descripcin de los datos

  • Descripcin de los datos

  • Descripcin de los datos

  • Cuestiones (y preguntas?)

  • Cuestiones (y preguntas?)Se ve el consumo afectado al jubilarse? (i.e., consumption-retirement puzzle?) Solo en los bienes subsidiados se reducePero existe un ajuste que afecta a casi todos los bienes (y a niveles de renta bajos el efecto es mayor)Qu debe subsidiar el gobierno (con el fin de mantener la utilidad marginal del consumo constante a lo largo del ciclo vital)? Los sistemas de pensiones deben cubrir este requisito de la adecuacinPor tanto, se debe subsidiar con medidas micro (sin que haya necesidad de cobertura universal a diferentes niveles de renta)

  • Jubilacin

  • Transiciones en el mercado de trabajo (EU-12 hombres)

  • Transiciones en el mercado de trabajo (EU-12 mujeres)

  • Transiciones en el mercado de trabajo (EU-12 parejas)

  • Cuestiones (y preguntas?)Por qu se retiran anticipadamente los individuos? Por cuestiones legales, econmicas, sociales y de saludEn el futuro seguramente veremos en Espaa lo que ya sucede en numerosos pases europeos que es retiro conjunto, por el gran incremento en la participacin laboral femenina en los ltimos aos. Estas decisiones se producen por numerosas razones, siendo una importante la posibilidad de compartir el ocio. Posibles polticas: cambiar la edad de jubilacin, introducir incentivos econmicos, cambios en el mercado de trabajo, incentivos para conseguir trabajos de mejor calidad (i.e. polticas de educacin y formacin en el puesto de trabajo)Los problemas de salud constituyen otra razn de retiro conjunto (con asimetras entre hombres y mujeres a causa de las diferencias salariales). Posibles polticas: desincentivos a la discriminacin salarial o discriminacin positiva para compensar perodos de fecundidad)

  • Perfiles de productividad edad por nivel educativoHombresMujeres

  • Participacin laboral de trabajadores de ms edad (hombres, PHOGUE)

    Grfico1

    94.9796.7595.9494.9295.2294.1796.1395.5796.3793.9492.695.2394.3492.9289.28

    90.890.0388.9991.7493.7591.2994.0193.5991.8990.5791.3986.5386.988.8385.54

    75.7767.8971.0374.888.8777.7279.0771.3881.0976.8981.9167.2261.8479.0873.08

    58.9743.8950.8353.681.2261.9952.4443.9967.8452.0670.6153.4941.369.6563.5

    49.622.9237.5645.967.4252.1442.7929.1657.0341.0667.9948.6729.269.1157.5

    41.2712.8526.5638.257.444.3337.3916.6349.0625.3264.1240.9822.464.8146.7

    37.410.6725.532.449.0942.1234.239.1346.8916.0759.0936.6314.261.3242.7

    33.02920.120.140.3636.6228.057.2942.938.7259.1431.08960.1636.5

    29.187.8719.6115.434.529.5524.076.2538.139.7252.3826.46.456.6432.3

    15.755.6311.618.0525.885.3612.713.1518.356.1933.5214.44.7840.2815.8

    9.812.356.032.0417.922.167.931.5911.784.4722.897.411.3628.697.08

    4.592.422.211.523.910.432.061.114.61.8714.012.75013.192.55

    Pool

    AU

    BE

    DE

    DK

    SP

    FI

    FR

    GR

    NL

    IR

    IT

    LU

    PO

    UK

    Labour force participation rates (Males)

    lfpr

    MALE

    PoolAUBEDEDKSPFIFRGRNLIRITLUPOUK

    45-4994.9796.7595.9494.9295.2294.1796.1395.5796.3793.9492.695.2394.3492.9289.28

    50-5490.890.0388.9991.7493.7591.2994.0193.5991.8990.5791.3986.5386.988.8385.54

    55-5975.7767.8971.0374.888.8777.7279.0771.3881.0976.8981.9167.2261.8479.0873.08

    6058.9743.8950.8353.681.2261.9952.4443.9967.8452.0670.6153.4941.369.6563.5

    6149.622.9237.5645.967.4252.1442.7929.1657.0341.0667.9948.6729.269.1157.5

    6241.2712.8526.5638.257.444.3337.3916.6349.0625.3264.1240.9822.464.8146.7

    6337.410.6725.532.449.0942.1234.239.1346.8916.0759.0936.6314.261.3242.7

    6433.02920.120.140.3636.6228.057.2942.938.7259.1431.08960.1636.5

    6529.187.8719.6115.434.529.5524.076.2538.139.7252.3826.46.456.6432.3

    66-6915.755.6311.618.0525.885.3612.713.1518.356.1933.5214.44.7840.2815.8

    70-749.812.356.032.0417.922.167.931.5911.784.4722.897.411.3628.697.08

    >= 754.592.422.211.523.910.432.061.114.61.8714.012.75013.192.55

    FEMALE

    PoolAUBEDEDKSPFIFRGRNLIRITLUPOUK

    45-4967.272.037372.2490.9152.1993.3275.8155.8170.3751.3158.3141.4868.0369.34

    50-5458.0765.6356.4765.984.441.6590.0268.4845.7161.3444.6745.1531.459.1366.5

    55-5941.9433.7838.3149.8273.3228.4978.249.9933.9543.8530.8930.4419.9248.4350.04

    6029.2817.0920.5531.157.7523.1452.3829.6824.1329.0324.1920.3612.143.4136.2

    6123.411.0713.9222.845.2519.4141.8319.5921.0423.0120.9915.210.942.8326.8

    6219.1210.959.6215.631.5818.1334.1311.3918.9114.0418.812.381038.0322.5

    6316.129.767.6912.124.7414.2431.127.5614.7911.9717.288.647.436.0519.9

    6413.724.985.957.626.4412.39256.0215.369.2715.046.647.329.8316.5

    6511.623.517.283.119.2811.3912.974.8215.256.710.924.675.226.410.3

    66-696.161.764.382.511.13.115.632.157.213.216.154.091.717.776.93

    70-742.921.541.360.92.961.292.470.92.990.714.362.030.59.772.1

    >= 751.391.170.360.232.140.390.20.231.310.191.450.60.065.220.21

    lfpr

    Pool

    AU

    BE

    DE

    DK

    SP

    FI

    FR

    GR

    NL

    IR

    IT

    LU

    PO

    UK

    Labour force participation rates (Males)

    employmentrates

    Pool

    AU

    BE

    DE

    DK

    SP

    FI

    FR

    GR

    NL

    IR

    IT

    LU

    PO

    UK

    Labour force participation rates (Females)

    unemploymentrates

    inactivityrates

    retirementtransitions

    transitions

    MALE

    PoolAUBEDEDKSPFIFRGRNLIRITLUPOUK

    45-490.310.560.240.740.540.060.640.160.8800.120.880.720.80.48

    50-541.552.661.582.180.560.640.8212.501.33.982.443.182.3

    55-595.5312.326.827.942.543.166.128.146.60.643.5610.1818.84.986.26

    6017.1453.919.623.719.320.228.636.611.32.54.714.141.47.612.7

    6119.0262.535.436.227.521.836.144.414.53.18.518.144.18.912.8

    6214.541.716.738.515.920.324.745.912.4210.418.845.81014.8

    6313.2623.521.839.934.619.42523.512.33.28.915.933.39.315.7

    6414.5723.116.757.833.326.823.624.314.94.36.515558.621.3

    6533.157.131.655.417.863.629.83733.262834.846.725.756.9

    66-6925.4746.4546.8559.0340.3357.2833.6531.63395.5817.8832.5548.8822.1343.9

    70-7425.329032.1242.6837.0861.5232.226.8639.367.8815.9837.4836.6624.8237.84

    >=7528.3624.2440.9161.4439.5172.6327.2719.6941.412.4719.0542.9718.1840.5340.84

    FEMALE

    PoolAUBEDEDKSPFIFRGRNLIRITLUPOUK

    45-490.40.70.91.520.5400.240.120.8600.120.422.11.040.9

    50-541.151.661.822.182.320.241.260.542.140.120.221.942.882.262.62

    55-593.6110.66.765.824.580.55.464.683.740.241.084.24.24.128.18

    6011.517.816.217.321.72.430.126.96.30.30.812.55.9736.1

    6110.8714.141.744.635.73.22626.44.20.31.21010.98.933

    626.966.229.14123.2325.311.96.50.62.38.38.18.139.5

    637.036.921.336.323.7331.3106.60.327.17.311.337.2

    648.4810.723.232.228.35.138.96.76.902.669.718.234.7

    6513.226.915.623.51814.753.324.9191.27.76.66.615.741.1

    66-6912.747.628.3352.1546.489.9355.3313.823.381.7346.67.6320.3338.23

    70-7410.558.523.6638.82708.56407.2221.941.422.245.949.619.4849.22

    >=7512.038.8839.3349.5227.2711.3827.278.2525.881.914.336.5815.5721.3550.11

    MalesFemales

    45-490.310.4

    50-541.551.15

    55-595.533.61

    6017.1411.5

    6119.0210.87

    6214.56.96

    6313.267.03

    6414.578.48

    6533.113.22

    66-6925.4712.74

    70-7425.3210.55

    >=7528.3612.03

    transitions

    Males

    Females

    Transitions out of the labour force to retirement

    retirement age

    MALE

    E-RE-UE-CRemain EU-RC-RRemain RRemain U C

    45-490.451.990.1792.590.040.021.433.31

    50-541.652.210.1787.440.140.034.43.96

    55-594.862.770.3369.940.560.1315.85.63

    609.872.060.5549.713.220.4829.284.82

    6110.131.250.4241.782.850.2940.093.19

    627.590.960.6536.882.070.1748.972.72

    636.490.830.5933.771.440.1854.052.64

    646.770.680.5629.231.160.32592.29

    6512.450.280.5120.551.30.2862.951.68

    66-695.390.040.5211.50.390.1680.891.11

    70-742.80.010.477.310.070.1888.121.04

    >=751.860.010.564.450.040.3891.351.35

    FEMALE

    E-RE-UE-CRemain EU-RC-RRemain RRemain U C

    45-490.371.762.4160.910.060.231.8132.46

    50-540.961.572.6652.60.130.453.837.83

    55-592.31.442.7735.980.471.1111.4844.45

    605.270.912.6321.751.493.5920.3644

    615.180.252.8216.232.193.7828.7440.81

    624.240.142.2614.260.872.5435.1840.51

    633.240.232.1612.920.722.7637.4140.55

    643.110.152.1910.380.293.1141.6139.17

    653.590.052.177.430.264.8944.0537.55

    66-692.280.021.574.640.134.4554.8432.08

    70-741.250.021.4630.023.3863.1227.76

    >=751.2301.963.460.053.6165.6224.06

    retirement age

    E-R

    E-U

    E-C

    Remain E

    U-R

    C-R

    Remain R

    Remain U C

    Transitions by type (Females)

    Hoja2

    E-R

    E-U

    E-C

    Remain E

    U-R

    C-R

    Remain R

    Remain U C

    Transitions by type (Males)

    Hoja3

    Effective average ageMaleFemale

    199562.1665.29

    199662.1664.32

    199761.7364.5

    199863.1165.14

    199961.8163.95

    200061.6964.15

    200161.9865.29

    1994-200162.1164.64

    Productivity thresholds

    Pool48.6346.68

    Pool countries average49.6747.09

    RE4946.53

    RE countries average49.4946.97

    FE65.4669.4

    We calculate age average for each of the years in order to account for cohort effects; whether a populated generation is being retired because of a change in the age structure of the working age population, for instance. We have to note that perhaps 8 wav

    MaleFemaleMaleFemale

    1995200119952001

    Statutory age

    59.956.764.963.56560

    Belgium63.4636566.96564

    Germany58.161.261.161.365

    Denmark585663.165.365

    Spain64.363.371.270.365

    58.159.159.560.263 to 68

    France59.85962.460.160

    Greece64.359.366.470.56560

    The Netherlands63.271.56672.165

    Ireland64.36468.370.165

    Italy58.862.260.464.76560

    Luxembourg60.757.96364.165

    Portugal63.464.466.164.965

    UK62.463.566.665.96065

    1. Effective 1995 ages are 1996 for Austria and 1997 for Finland as there lack the first wave and two first waves in the respective countries. Some strange figures correspond to small sample sizes.

    unemployment

    MalesFemalesMalesFemales

    199519952005Male 1995Male 2005Female 1995Female 2005

    EU-158.41186.1EU-158.46.786.1

    BE3.8114.44.2BE3.84.44.44.2

    DK6.9119.85.1DK6.94.89.85.1

    DE10.41113.712.9DE10.413.113.712.9

    GR3.6112.94GR3.63.12.94

    SP12.811117.8SP12.86.1117.8

    IT4114.93.1IT43.74.93.1

    FI16.3119.95.8FI16.36.79.95.8

    SE7.5117.92.9SE7.55.37.92.9

    UK10.2113.91.8UK10.23.43.91.8

    EU-15821

    BE4.421

    DK9.821

    DE13.721

    GR2.921EU-158.46.716.1

    SP1121BE3.84.414.2

    IT4.921DK6.94.815.1

    FI9.921DE10.413.1112.9

    SE7.921GR3.63.114

    UK3.921SP12.86.117.8

    EU-156.712IT43.713.1

    BE4.412FI16.36.715.8

    DK4.812SE7.55.312.9

    DE13.112UK10.23.411.8

    GR3.112EU-1586.12

    SP6.112BE4.44.22

    IT3.712DK9.85.12

    FI6.712DE13.712.92

    SE5.312GR2.942

    UK3.412SP117.82

    EU-156.122IT4.93.12

    BE4.222FI9.95.82

    DK5.122SE7.92.92

    DE12.922UK3.91.82

    GR422

    SP7.822

    IT3.122

    FI5.822

    SE2.922

    UK1.822

    Male 1995

    Male 2005

    Female 1995

    Female 2005

    Unemployment rates

    employment19952005employment19952005

    employment rateMales 1995Females 1995Males 2005Females 2005Males 1995Females 1995Males 2005Females 2005

    inactive1995a002005a00EU-1547.225.353.135.4EU-1547.225.353.135.4

    AU42.218.241.322.9AU42.218.241.322.9

    BE33.512.941.722.1BE33.512.941.722.1

    55-64geoDK64.735.965.653.5DK64.735.965.653.5

    MaleFemale:::42.551.833.7EU-15DE48.527.153.537.5DE48.527.153.537.5

    FI35.633.452.852.7FI35.633.452.852.7

    FR33.825.640.735.2FR33.825.640.735.2

    GR59.624.158.825.8GR59.624.158.825.8

    IR59.818.665.737.3IR59.818.665.737.3

    TotalMalesFemalesTotalMalesFemalesIT44.613.542.720.8IT44.613.542.720.8

    DK29.844.3DKDE37.748.527.145.453.537.5DELU35.112.638.324.9LU35.112.638.324.9

    DE39.257.2DEIR39.259.818.651.665.737.3IRNL39.718.356.935.2NL39.718.356.935.2

    GR39.373.1GRSP32.348.417.543.159.727.4SPPO61.432.658.143.7PO61.432.658.143.7

    FR56.761.8FRIT28.444.613.531.442.720.8ITSE65.259.272.066.7SE65.259.27266.7

    SP48.417.559.727.4SP48.417.559.727.4

    IT5678.8ITLU23.735.112.631.738.324.9LUUK56.239.066.048.1UK56.2396648.1

    LU60.674.9LUNL28.939.718.346.156.935.2NL

    NL40.363.7NLAU29.742.218.231.841.322.9AU

    AU57.276.7AUPO46.061.432.650.558.143.7PO

    PO37.553.3POFI34.435.633.452.752.852.7FI

    FI43.643.9FISE62.065.259.269.472.066.7SE

    SE24.232SEUK47.556.239.056.966.048.1UK

    UK3250.9UK

    time1995a002005a00

    sex

    geo

    :::42.551.833.7

    36.047.225.344.153.135.4

    22.933.512.931.841.722.1

    49.864.735.959.565.653.5

    37.748.527.145.4b53.5b37.5b

    39.259.818.651.665.737.3

    41.059.624.141.658.825.8

    32.348.417.543.1b59.7b27.4b

    29.633.825.637.940.735.2

    28.444.613.531.442.720.8

    23.735.112.631.738.324.9

    28.939.718.346.156.935.2

    29.742.218.231.841.322.9

    46.061.432.650.558.143.7

    34.435.633.452.752.852.7

    62.065.259.269.4b72.0b66.7b

    47.556.239.056.966.048.1

    44.764.2

    43.362.4

    56.876

    29.844.3

    39.257.2

    32.261.6

    39.373.1

    36.770.1

    56.761.8

    5678.8

    60.674.9

    40.363.7

    57.276.7

    37.553.3

    43.643.9

    24.232

    3250.9

    Male

    Female

    Inactivity rates in 2005

    Males 1995

    Females 1995

    Males 2005

    Females 2005

    Employment rates of older workers (55 to 64 years old)

  • Participacin laboral de trabajadores de ms edad (mujeres, PHOGUE)

    Grfico2

    67.272.037372.2490.9152.1993.3275.8155.8170.3751.3158.3141.4868.0369.34

    58.0765.6356.4765.984.441.6590.0268.4845.7161.3444.6745.1531.459.1366.5

    41.9433.7838.3149.8273.3228.4978.249.9933.9543.8530.8930.4419.9248.4350.04

    29.2817.0920.5531.157.7523.1452.3829.6824.1329.0324.1920.3612.143.4136.2

    23.411.0713.9222.845.2519.4141.8319.5921.0423.0120.9915.210.942.8326.8

    19.1210.959.6215.631.5818.1334.1311.3918.9114.0418.812.381038.0322.5

    16.129.767.6912.124.7414.2431.127.5614.7911.9717.288.647.436.0519.9

    13.724.985.957.626.4412.39256.0215.369.2715.046.647.329.8316.5

    11.623.517.283.119.2811.3912.974.8215.256.710.924.675.226.410.3

    6.161.764.382.511.13.115.632.157.213.216.154.091.717.776.93

    2.921.541.360.92.961.292.470.92.990.714.362.030.59.772.1

    1.391.170.360.232.140.390.20.231.310.191.450.60.065.220.21

    Pool

    AU

    BE

    DE

    DK

    SP

    FI

    FR

    GR

    NL

    IR

    IT

    LU

    PO

    UK

    Labour force participation rates (Females)

    lfpr

    MALE

    PoolAUBEDEDKSPFIFRGRNLIRITLUPOUK

    45-4994.9796.7595.9494.9295.2294.1796.1395.5796.3793.9492.695.2394.3492.9289.28

    50-5490.890.0388.9991.7493.7591.2994.0193.5991.8990.5791.3986.5386.988.8385.54

    55-5975.7767.8971.0374.888.8777.7279.0771.3881.0976.8981.9167.2261.8479.0873.08

    6058.9743.8950.8353.681.2261.9952.4443.9967.8452.0670.6153.4941.369.6563.5

    6149.622.9237.5645.967.4252.1442.7929.1657.0341.0667.9948.6729.269.1157.5

    6241.2712.8526.5638.257.444.3337.3916.6349.0625.3264.1240.9822.464.8146.7

    6337.410.6725.532.449.0942.1234.239.1346.8916.0759.0936.6314.261.3242.7

    6433.02920.120.140.3636.6228.057.2942.938.7259.1431.08960.1636.5

    6529.187.8719.6115.434.529.5524.076.2538.139.7252.3826.46.456.6432.3

    66-6915.755.6311.618.0525.885.3612.713.1518.356.1933.5214.44.7840.2815.8

    70-749.812.356.032.0417.922.167.931.5911.784.4722.897.411.3628.697.08

    >= 754.592.422.211.523.910.432.061.114.61.8714.012.75013.192.55

    FEMALE

    PoolAUBEDEDKSPFIFRGRNLIRITLUPOUK

    45-4967.272.037372.2490.9152.1993.3275.8155.8170.3751.3158.3141.4868.0369.34

    50-5458.0765.6356.4765.984.441.6590.0268.4845.7161.3444.6745.1531.459.1366.5

    55-5941.9433.7838.3149.8273.3228.4978.249.9933.9543.8530.8930.4419.9248.4350.04

    6029.2817.0920.5531.157.7523.1452.3829.6824.1329.0324.1920.3612.143.4136.2

    6123.411.0713.9222.845.2519.4141.8319.5921.0423.0120.9915.210.942.8326.8

    6219.1210.959.6215.631.5818.1334.1311.3918.9114.0418.812.381038.0322.5

    6316.129.767.6912.124.7414.2431.127.5614.7911.9717.288.647.436.0519.9

    6413.724.985.957.626.4412.39256.0215.369.2715.046.647.329.8316.5

    6511.623.517.283.119.2811.3912.974.8215.256.710.924.675.226.410.3

    66-696.161.764.382.511.13.115.632.157.213.216.154.091.717.776.93

    70-742.921.541.360.92.961.292.470.92.990.714.362.030.59.772.1

    >= 751.391.170.360.232.140.390.20.231.310.191.450.60.065.220.21

    lfpr

    Pool

    AU

    BE

    DE

    DK

    SP

    FI

    FR

    GR

    NL

    IR

    IT

    LU

    PO

    UK

    Labour force participation rates (Males)

    employmentrates

    Pool

    AU

    BE

    DE

    DK

    SP

    FI

    FR

    GR

    NL

    IR

    IT

    LU

    PO

    UK

    Labour force participation rates (Females)

    unemploymentrates

    inactivityrates

    retirementtransitions

    transitions

    MALE

    PoolAUBEDEDKSPFIFRGRNLIRITLUPOUK

    45-490.310.560.240.740.540.060.640.160.8800.120.880.720.80.48

    50-541.552.661.582.180.560.640.8212.501.33.982.443.182.3

    55-595.5312.326.827.942.543.166.128.146.60.643.5610.1818.84.986.26

    6017.1453.919.623.719.320.228.636.611.32.54.714.141.47.612.7

    6119.0262.535.436.227.521.836.144.414.53.18.518.144.18.912.8

    6214.541.716.738.515.920.324.745.912.4210.418.845.81014.8

    6313.2623.521.839.934.619.42523.512.33.28.915.933.39.315.7

    6414.5723.116.757.833.326.823.624.314.94.36.515558.621.3

    6533.157.131.655.417.863.629.83733.262834.846.725.756.9

    66-6925.4746.4546.8559.0340.3357.2833.6531.63395.5817.8832.5548.8822.1343.9

    70-7425.329032.1242.6837.0861.5232.226.8639.367.8815.9837.4836.6624.8237.84

    >=7528.3624.2440.9161.4439.5172.6327.2719.6941.412.4719.0542.9718.1840.5340.84

    FEMALE

    PoolAUBEDEDKSPFIFRGRNLIRITLUPOUK

    45-490.40.70.91.520.5400.240.120.8600.120.422.11.040.9

    50-541.151.661.822.182.320.241.260.542.140.120.221.942.882.262.62

    55-593.6110.66.765.824.580.55.464.683.740.241.084.24.24.128.18

    6011.517.816.217.321.72.430.126.96.30.30.812.55.9736.1

    6110.8714.141.744.635.73.22626.44.20.31.21010.98.933

    626.966.229.14123.2325.311.96.50.62.38.38.18.139.5

    637.036.921.336.323.7331.3106.60.327.17.311.337.2

    648.4810.723.232.228.35.138.96.76.902.669.718.234.7

    6513.226.915.623.51814.753.324.9191.27.76.66.615.741.1

    66-6912.747.628.3352.1546.489.9355.3313.823.381.7346.67.6320.3338.23

    70-7410.558.523.6638.82708.56407.2221.941.422.245.949.619.4849.22

    >=7512.038.8839.3349.5227.2711.3827.278.2525.881.914.336.5815.5721.3550.11

    MalesFemales

    45-490.310.4

    50-541.551.15

    55-595.533.61

    6017.1411.5

    6119.0210.87

    6214.56.96

    6313.267.03

    6414.578.48

    6533.113.22

    66-6925.4712.74

    70-7425.3210.55

    >=7528.3612.03

    transitions

    Males

    Females

    Transitions out of the labour force to retirement

    retirement age

    MALE

    E-RE-UE-CRemain EU-RC-RRemain RRemain U C

    45-490.451.990.1792.590.040.021.433.31

    50-541.652.210.1787.440.140.034.43.96

    55-594.862.770.3369.940.560.1315.85.63

    609.872.060.5549.713.220.4829.284.82

    6110.131.250.4241.782.850.2940.093.19

    627.590.960.6536.882.070.1748.972.72

    636.490.830.5933.771.440.1854.052.64

    646.770.680.5629.231.160.32592.29

    6512.450.280.5120.551.30.2862.951.68

    66-695.390.040.5211.50.390.1680.891.11

    70-742.80.010.477.310.070.1888.121.04

    >=751.860.010.564.450.040.3891.351.35

    FEMALE

    E-RE-UE-CRemain EU-RC-RRemain RRemain U C

    45-490.371.762.4160.910.060.231.8132.46

    50-540.961.572.6652.60.130.453.837.83

    55-592.31.442.7735.980.471.1111.4844.45

    605.270.912.6321.751.493.5920.3644

    615.180.252.8216.232.193.7828.7440.81

    624.240.142.2614.260.872.5435.1840.51

    633.240.232.1612.920.722.7637.4140.55

    643.110.152.1910.380.293.1141.6139.17

    653.590.052.177.430.264.8944.0537.55

    66-692.280.021.574.640.134.4554.8432.08

    70-741.250.021.4630.023.3863.1227.76

    >=751.2301.963.460.053.6165.6224.06

    retirement age

    E-R

    E-U

    E-C

    Remain E

    U-R

    C-R

    Remain R

    Remain U C

    Transitions by type (Females)

    Hoja2

    E-R

    E-U

    E-C

    Remain E

    U-R

    C-R

    Remain R

    Remain U C

    Transitions by type (Males)

    Hoja3

    Effective average ageMaleFemale

    199562.1665.29

    199662.1664.32

    199761.7364.5

    199863.1165.14

    199961.8163.95

    200061.6964.15

    200161.9865.29

    1994-200162.1164.64

    Productivity thresholds

    Pool48.6346.68

    Pool countries average49.6747.09

    RE4946.53

    RE countries average49.4946.97

    FE65.4669.4

    We calculate age average for each of the years in order to account for cohort effects; whether a populated generation is being retired because of a change in the age structure of the working age population, for instance. We have to note that perhaps 8 wav

    MaleFemaleMaleFemale

    1995200119952001

    Statutory age

    59.956.764.963.56560

    Belgium63.4636566.96564

    Germany58.161.261.161.365

    Denmark585663.165.365

    Spain64.363.371.270.365

    58.159.159.560.263 to 68

    France59.85962.460.160

    Greece64.359.366.470.56560

    The Netherlands63.271.56672.165

    Ireland64.36468.370.165

    Italy58.862.260.464.76560

    Luxembourg60.757.96364.165

    Portugal63.464.466.164.965

    UK62.463.566.665.96065

    1. Effective 1995 ages are 1996 for Austria and 1997 for Finland as there lack the first wave and two first waves in the respective countries. Some strange figures correspond to small sample sizes.

    unemployment

    MalesFemalesMalesFemales

    199519952005Male 1995Male 2005Female 1995Female 2005

    EU-158.41186.1EU-158.46.786.1

    BE3.8114.44.2BE3.84.44.44.2

    DK6.9119.85.1DK6.94.89.85.1

    DE10.41113.712.9DE10.413.113.712.9

    GR3.6112.94GR3.63.12.94

    SP12.811117.8SP12.86.1117.8

    IT4114.93.1IT43.74.93.1

    FI16.3119.95.8FI16.36.79.95.8

    SE7.5117.92.9SE7.55.37.92.9

    UK10.2113.91.8UK10.23.43.91.8

    EU-15821

    BE4.421

    DK9.821

    DE13.721

    GR2.921EU-158.46.716.1

    SP1121BE3.84.414.2

    IT4.921DK6.94.815.1

    FI9.921DE10.413.1112.9

    SE7.921GR3.63.114

    UK3.921SP12.86.117.8

    EU-156.712IT43.713.1

    BE4.412FI16.36.715.8

    DK4.812SE7.55.312.9

    DE13.112UK10.23.411.8

    GR3.112EU-1586.12

    SP6.112BE4.44.22

    IT3.712DK9.85.12

    FI6.712DE13.712.92

    SE5.312GR2.942

    UK3.412SP117.82

    EU-156.122IT4.93.12

    BE4.222FI9.95.82

    DK5.122SE7.92.92

    DE12.922UK3.91.82

    GR422

    SP7.822

    IT3.122

    FI5.822

    SE2.922

    UK1.822

    Male 1995

    Male 2005

    Female 1995

    Female 2005

    Unemployment rates

    employment19952005employment19952005

    employment rateMales 1995Females 1995Males 2005Females 2005Males 1995Females 1995Males 2005Females 2005

    inactive1995a002005a00EU-1547.225.353.135.4EU-1547.225.353.135.4

    AU42.218.241.322.9AU42.218.241.322.9

    BE33.512.941.722.1BE33.512.941.722.1

    55-64geoDK64.735.965.653.5DK64.735.965.653.5

    MaleFemale:::42.551.833.7EU-15DE48.527.153.537.5DE48.527.153.537.5

    FI35.633.452.852.7FI35.633.452.852.7

    FR33.825.640.735.2FR33.825.640.735.2

    GR59.624.158.825.8GR59.624.158.825.8

    IR59.818.665.737.3IR59.818.665.737.3

    TotalMalesFemalesTotalMalesFemalesIT44.613.542.720.8IT44.613.542.720.8

    DK29.844.3DKDE37.748.527.145.453.537.5DELU35.112.638.324.9LU35.112.638.324.9

    DE39.257.2DEIR39.259.818.651.665.737.3IRNL39.718.356.935.2NL39.718.356.935.2

    GR39.373.1GRSP32.348.417.543.159.727.4SPPO61.432.658.143.7PO61.432.658.143.7

    FR56.761.8FRIT28.444.613.531.442.720.8ITSE65.259.272.066.7SE65.259.27266.7

    SP48.417.559.727.4SP48.417.559.727.4

    IT5678.8ITLU23.735.112.631.738.324.9LUUK56.239.066.048.1UK56.2396648.1

    LU60.674.9LUNL28.939.718.346.156.935.2NL

    NL40.363.7NLAU29.742.218.231.841.322.9AU

    AU57.276.7AUPO46.061.432.650.558.143.7PO

    PO37.553.3POFI34.435.633.452.752.852.7FI

    FI43.643.9FISE62.065.259.269.472.066.7SE

    SE24.232SEUK47.556.239.056.966.048.1UK

    UK3250.9UK

    time1995a002005a00

    sex

    geo

    :::42.551.833.7

    36.047.225.344.153.135.4

    22.933.512.931.841.722.1

    49.864.735.959.565.653.5

    37.748.527.145.4b53.5b37.5b

    39.259.818.651.665.737.3

    41.059.624.141.658.825.8

    32.348.417.543.1b59.7b27.4b

    29.633.825.637.940.735.2

    28.444.613.531.442.720.8

    23.735.112.631.738.324.9

    28.939.718.346.156.935.2

    29.742.218.231.841.322.9

    46.061.432.650.558.143.7

    34.435.633.452.752.852.7

    62.065.259.269.4b72.0b66.7b

    47.556.239.056.966.048.1

    44.764.2

    43.362.4

    56.876

    29.844.3

    39.257.2

    32.261.6

    39.373.1

    36.770.1

    56.761.8

    5678.8

    60.674.9

    40.363.7

    57.276.7

    37.553.3

    43.643.9

    24.232

    3250.9

    Male

    Female

    Inactivity rates in 2005

    Males 1995

    Females 1995

    Males 2005

    Females 2005

    Employment rates of older workers (55 to 64 years old)

  • Tasas de empleo de trabajadores de ms edad

    Grfico3

    47.225.353.135.4

    42.218.241.322.9

    33.512.941.722.1

    64.735.965.653.5

    48.527.153.537.5

    35.633.452.852.7

    33.825.640.735.2

    59.624.158.825.8

    59.818.665.737.3

    44.613.542.720.8

    35.112.638.324.9

    39.718.356.935.2

    61.432.658.143.7

    65.259.27266.7

    48.417.559.727.4

    56.2396648.1

    Males 1995

    Females 1995

    Males 2005

    Females 2005

    Employment rates of older workers (55 to 64 years old)

    lfpr

    MALE

    PoolAUBEDEDKSPFIFRGRNLIRITLUPOUK

    45-4994.9796.7595.9494.9295.2294.1796.1395.5796.3793.9492.695.2394.3492.9289.28

    50-5490.890.0388.9991.7493.7591.2994.0193.5991.8990.5791.3986.5386.988.8385.54

    55-5975.7767.8971.0374.888.8777.7279.0771.3881.0976.8981.9167.2261.8479.0873.08

    6058.9743.8950.8353.681.2261.9952.4443.9967.8452.0670.6153.4941.369.6563.5

    6149.622.9237.5645.967.4252.1442.7929.1657.0341.0667.9948.6729.269.1157.5

    6241.2712.8526.5638.257.444.3337.3916.6349.0625.3264.1240.9822.464.8146.7

    6337.410.6725.532.449.0942.1234.239.1346.8916.0759.0936.6314.261.3242.7

    6433.02920.120.140.3636.6228.057.2942.938.7259.1431.08960.1636.5

    6529.187.8719.6115.434.529.5524.076.2538.139.7252.3826.46.456.6432.3

    66-6915.755.6311.618.0525.885.3612.713.1518.356.1933.5214.44.7840.2815.8

    70-749.812.356.032.0417.922.167.931.5911.784.4722.897.411.3628.697.08

    >= 754.592.422.211.523.910.432.061.114.61.8714.012.75013.192.55

    FEMALE

    PoolAUBEDEDKSPFIFRGRNLIRITLUPOUK

    45-4967.272.037372.2490.9152.1993.3275.8155.8170.3751.3158.3141.4868.0369.34

    50-5458.0765.6356.4765.984.441.6590.0268.4845.7161.3444.6745.1531.459.1366.5

    55-5941.9433.7838.3149.8273.3228.4978.249.9933.9543.8530.8930.4419.9248.4350.04

    6029.2817.0920.5531.157.7523.1452.3829.6824.1329.0324.1920.3612.143.4136.2

    6123.411.0713.9222.845.2519.4141.8319.5921.0423.0120.9915.210.942.8326.8

    6219.1210.959.6215.631.5818.1334.1311.3918.9114.0418.812.381038.0322.5

    6316.129.767.6912.124.7414.2431.127.5614.7911.9717.288.647.436.0519.9

    6413.724.985.957.626.4412.39256.0215.369.2715.046.647.329.8316.5

    6511.623.517.283.119.2811.3912.974.8215.256.710.924.675.226.410.3

    66-696.161.764.382.511.13.115.632.157.213.216.154.091.717.776.93

    70-742.921.541.360.92.961.292.470.92.990.714.362.030.59.772.1

    >= 751.391.170.360.232.140.390.20.231.310.191.450.60.065.220.21

    lfpr

    Pool

    AU

    BE

    DE

    DK

    SP

    FI

    FR

    GR

    NL

    IR

    IT

    LU

    PO

    UK

    Labour force participation rates (Males)

    employmentrates

    Pool

    AU

    BE

    DE

    DK

    SP

    FI

    FR

    GR

    NL

    IR

    IT

    LU

    PO

    UK

    Labour force participation rates (Females)

    unemploymentrates

    inactivityrates

    retirementtransitions

    transitions

    MALE

    PoolAUBEDEDKSPFIFRGRNLIRITLUPOUK

    45-490.310.560.240.740.540.060.640.160.8800.120.880.720.80.48

    50-541.552.661.582.180.560.640.8212.501.33.982.443.182.3

    55-595.5312.326.827.942.543.166.128.146.60.643.5610.1818.84.986.26

    6017.1453.919.623.719.320.228.636.611.32.54.714.141.47.612.7

    6119.0262.535.436.227.521.836.144.414.53.18.518.144.18.912.8

    6214.541.716.738.515.920.324.745.912.4210.418.845.81014.8

    6313.2623.521.839.934.619.42523.512.33.28.915.933.39.315.7

    6414.5723.116.757.833.326.823.624.314.94.36.515558.621.3

    6533.157.131.655.417.863.629.83733.262834.846.725.756.9

    66-6925.4746.4546.8559.0340.3357.2833.6531.63395.5817.8832.5548.8822.1343.9

    70-7425.329032.1242.6837.0861.5232.226.8639.367.8815.9837.4836.6624.8237.84

    >=7528.3624.2440.9161.4439.5172.6327.2719.6941.412.4719.0542.9718.1840.5340.84

    FEMALE

    PoolAUBEDEDKSPFIFRGRNLIRITLUPOUK

    45-490.40.70.91.520.5400.240.120.8600.120.422.11.040.9

    50-541.151.661.822.182.320.241.260.542.140.120.221.942.882.262.62

    55-593.6110.66.765.824.580.55.464.683.740.241.084.24.24.128.18

    6011.517.816.217.321.72.430.126.96.30.30.812.55.9736.1

    6110.8714.141.744.635.73.22626.44.20.31.21010.98.933

    626.966.229.14123.2325.311.96.50.62.38.38.18.139.5

    637.036.921.336.323.7331.3106.60.327.17.311.337.2

    648.4810.723.232.228.35.138.96.76.902.669.718.234.7

    6513.226.915.623.51814.753.324.9191.27.76.66.615.741.1

    66-6912.747.628.3352.1546.489.9355.3313.823.381.7346.67.6320.3338.23

    70-7410.558.523.6638.82708.56407.2221.941.422.245.949.619.4849.22

    >=7512.038.8839.3349.5227.2711.3827.278.2525.881.914.336.5815.5721.3550.11

    MalesFemales

    45-490.310.4

    50-541.551.15

    55-595.533.61

    6017.1411.5

    6119.0210.87

    6214.56.96

    6313.267.03

    6414.578.48

    6533.113.22

    66-6925.4712.74

    70-7425.3210.55

    >=7528.3612.03

    transitions

    Males

    Females

    Transitions out of the labour force to retirement

    retirement age

    MALE

    E-RE-UE-CRemain EU-RC-RRemain RRemain U C

    45-490.451.990.1792.590.040.021.433.31

    50-541.652.210.1787.440.140.034.43.96

    55-594.862.770.3369.940.560.1315.85.63

    609.872.060.5549.713.220.4829.284.82

    6110.131.250.4241.782.850.2940.093.19

    627.590.960.6536.882.070.1748.972.72

    636.490.830.5933.771.440.1854.052.64

    646.770.680.5629.231.160.32592.29

    6512.450.280.5120.551.30.2862.951.68

    66-695.390.040.5211.50.390.1680.891.11

    70-742.80.010.477.310.070.1888.121.04

    >=751.860.010.564.450.040.3891.351.35

    FEMALE

    E-RE-UE-CRemain EU-RC-RRemain RRemain U C

    45-490.371.762.4160.910.060.231.8132.46

    50-540.961.572.6652.60.130.453.837.83

    55-592.31.442.7735.980.471.1111.4844.45

    605.270.912.6321.751.493.5920.3644

    615.180.252.8216.232.193.7828.7440.81

    624.240.142.2614.260.872.5435.1840.51

    633.240.232.1612.920.722.7637.4140.55

    643.110.152.1910.380.293.1141.6139.17

    653.590.052.177.430.264.8944.0537.55

    66-692.280.021.574.640.134.4554.8432.08

    70-741.250.021.4630.023.3863.1227.76

    >=751.2301.963.460.053.6165.6224.06

    retirement age

    E-R

    E-U

    E-C

    Remain E

    U-R

    C-R

    Remain R

    Remain U C

    Transitions by type (Females)

    Hoja2

    E-R

    E-U

    E-C

    Remain E

    U-R

    C-R

    Remain R

    Remain U C

    Transitions by type (Males)

    Hoja3

    Effective average ageMaleFemale

    199562.1665.29

    199662.1664.32

    199761.7364.5

    199863.1165.14

    199961.8163.95

    200061.6964.15

    200161.9865.29

    1994-200162.1164.64

    Productivity thresholds

    Pool48.6346.68

    Pool countries average49.6747.09

    RE4946.53

    RE countries average49.4946.97

    FE65.4669.4

    We calculate age average for each of the years in order to account for cohort effects; whether a populated generation is being retired because of a change in the age structure of the working age population, for instance. We have to note that perhaps 8 wav

    MaleFemaleMaleFemale

    1995200119952001

    Statutory age

    59.956.764.963.56560

    Belgium63.4636566.96564

    Germany58.161.261.161.365

    Denmark585663.165.365

    Spain64.363.371.270.365

    58.159.159.560.263 to 68

    France59.85962.460.160

    Greece64.359.366.470.56560

    The Netherlands63.271.56672.165

    Ireland64.36468.370.165

    Italy58.862.260.464.76560

    Luxembourg60.757.96364.165

    Portugal63.464.466.164.965

    UK62.463.566.665.96065

    1. Effective 1995 ages are 1996 for Austria and 1997 for Finland as there lack the first wave and two first waves in the respective countries. Some strange figures correspond to small sample sizes.

    unemployment

    MalesFemalesMalesFemales

    199519952005Male 1995Male 2005Female 1995Female 2005

    EU-158.41186.1EU-158.46.786.1

    BE3.8114.44.2BE3.84.44.44.2

    DK6.9119.85.1DK6.94.89.85.1

    DE10.41113.712.9DE10.413.113.712.9

    GR3.6112.94GR3.63.12.94

    SP12.811117.8SP12.86.1117.8

    IT4114.93.1IT43.74.93.1

    FI16.3119.95.8FI16.36.79.95.8

    SE7.5117.92.9SE7.55.37.92.9

    UK10.2113.91.8UK10.23.43.91.8

    EU-15821

    BE4.421

    DK9.821

    DE13.721

    GR2.921EU-158.46.716.1

    SP1121BE3.84.414.2

    IT4.921DK6.94.815.1

    FI9.921DE10.413.1112.9

    SE7.921GR3.63.114

    UK3.921SP12.86.117.8

    EU-156.712IT43.713.1

    BE4.412FI16.36.715.8

    DK4.812SE7.55.312.9

    DE13.112UK10.23.411.8

    GR3.112EU-1586.12

    SP6.112BE4.44.22

    IT3.712DK9.85.12

    FI6.712DE13.712.92

    SE5.312GR2.942

    UK3.412SP117.82

    EU-156.122IT4.93.12

    BE4.222FI9.95.82

    DK5.122SE7.92.92

    DE12.922UK3.91.82

    GR422

    SP7.822

    IT3.122

    FI5.822

    SE2.922

    UK1.822

    Male 1995

    Male 2005

    Female 1995

    Female 2005

    Unemployment rates

    employment19952005employment19952005

    employment rateMales 1995Females 1995Males 2005Females 2005Males 1995Females 1995Males 2005Females 2005

    inactive1995a002005a00EU-1547.225.353.135.4EU-1547.225.353.135.4

    AU42.218.241.322.9AU42.218.241.322.9

    BE33.512.941.722.1BE33.512.941.722.1

    55-64geoDK64.735.965.653.5DK64.735.965.653.5

    MaleFemale:::42.551.833.7EU-15DE48.527.153.537.5DE48.527.153.537.5

    FI35.633.452.852.7FI35.633.452.852.7

    FR33.825.640.735.2FR33.825.640.735.2

    GR59.624.158.825.8GR59.624.158.825.8

    IR59.818.665.737.3IR59.818.665.737.3

    TotalMalesFemalesTotalMalesFemalesIT44.613.542.720.8IT44.613.542.720.8

    DK29.844.3DKDE37.748.527.145.453.537.5DELU35.112.638.324.9LU35.112.638.324.9

    DE39.257.2DEIR39.259.818.651.665.737.3IRNL39.718.356.935.2NL39.718.356.935.2

    GR39.373.1GRSP32.348.417.543.159.727.4SPPO61.432.658.143.7PO61.432.658.143.7

    FR56.761.8FRIT28.444.613.531.442.720.8ITSE65.259.272.066.7SE65.259.27266.7

    SP48.417.559.727.4SP48.417.559.727.4

    IT5678.8ITLU23.735.112.631.738.324.9LUUK56.239.066.048.1UK56.2396648.1

    LU60.674.9LUNL28.939.718.346.156.935.2NL

    NL40.363.7NLAU29.742.218.231.841.322.9AU

    AU57.276.7AUPO46.061.432.650.558.143.7PO

    PO37.553.3POFI34.435.633.452.752.852.7FI

    FI43.643.9FISE62.065.259.269.472.066.7SE

    SE24.232SEUK47.556.239.056.966.048.1UK

    UK3250.9UK

    time1995a002005a00

    sex

    geo

    :::42.551.833.7

    36.047.225.344.153.135.4

    22.933.512.931.841.722.1

    49.864.735.959.565.653.5

    37.748.527.145.4b53.5b37.5b

    39.259.818.651.665.737.3

    41.059.624.141.658.825.8

    32.348.417.543.1b59.7b27.4b

    29.633.825.637.940.735.2

    28.444.613.531.442.720.8

    23.735.112.631.738.324.9

    28.939.718.346.156.935.2

    29.742.218.231.841.322.9

    46.061.432.650.558.143.7

    34.435.633.452.752.852.7

    62.065.259.269.4b72.0b66.7b

    47.556.239.056.966.048.1

    44.764.2

    43.362.4

    56.876

    29.844.3

    39.257.2

    32.261.6

    39.373.1

    36.770.1

    56.761.8

    5678.8

    60.674.9

    40.363.7

    57.276.7

    37.553.3

    43.643.9

    24.232

    3250.9

    Male

    Female

    Inactivity rates in 2005

    Males 1995

    Females 1995

    Males 2005

    Females 2005

    Employment rates of older workers (55 to 64 years old)

  • Tasas de desempleo de trabajadores de ms edad

    Grfico4

    8.46.786.1

    3.84.44.44.2

    6.94.89.85.1

    10.413.113.712.9

    3.63.12.94

    12.86.1117.8

    43.74.93.1

    16.36.79.95.8

    7.55.37.92.9

    10.23.43.91.8

    Male 1995

    Male 2005

    Female 1995

    Female 2005

    Unemployment rates

    lfpr

    MALE

    PoolAUBEDEDKSPFIFRGRNLIRITLUPOUK

    45-4994.9796.7595.9494.9295.2294.1796.1395.5796.3793.9492.695.2394.3492.9289.28

    50-5490.890.0388.9991.7493.7591.2994.0193.5991.8990.5791.3986.5386.988.8385.54

    55-5975.7767.8971.0374.888.8777.7279.0771.3881.0976.8981.9167.2261.8479.0873.08

    6058.9743.8950.8353.681.2261.9952.4443.9967.8452.0670.6153.4941.369.6563.5

    6149.622.9237.5645.967.4252.1442.7929.1657.0341.0667.9948.6729.269.1157.5

    6241.2712.8526.5638.257.444.3337.3916.6349.0625.3264.1240.9822.464.8146.7

    6337.410.6725.532.449.0942.1234.239.1346.8916.0759.0936.6314.261.3242.7

    6433.02920.120.140.3636.6228.057.2942.938.7259.1431.08960.1636.5

    6529.187.8719.6115.434.529.5524.076.2538.139.7252.3826.46.456.6432.3

    66-6915.755.6311.618.0525.885.3612.713.1518.356.1933.5214.44.7840.2815.8

    70-749.812.356.032.0417.922.167.931.5911.784.4722.897.411.3628.697.08

    >= 754.592.422.211.523.910.432.061.114.61.8714.012.75013.192.55

    FEMALE

    PoolAUBEDEDKSPFIFRGRNLIRITLUPOUK

    45-4967.272.037372.2490.9152.1993.3275.8155.8170.3751.3158.3141.4868.0369.34

    50-5458.0765.6356.4765.984.441.6590.0268.4845.7161.3444.6745.1531.459.1366.5

    55-5941.9433.7838.3149.8273.3228.4978.249.9933.9543.8530.8930.4419.9248.4350.04

    6029.2817.0920.5531.157.7523.1452.3829.6824.1329.0324.1920.3612.143.4136.2

    6123.411.0713.9222.845.2519.4141.8319.5921.0423.0120.9915.210.942.8326.8

    6219.1210.959.6215.631.5818.1334.1311.3918.9114.0418.812.381038.0322.5

    6316.129.767.6912.124.7414.2431.127.5614.7911.9717.288.647.436.0519.9

    6413.724.985.957.626.4412.39256.0215.369.2715.046.647.329.8316.5

    6511.623.517.283.119.2811.3912.974.8215.256.710.924.675.226.410.3

    66-696.161.764.382.511.13.115.632.157.213.216.154.091.717.776.93

    70-742.921.541.360.92.961.292.470.92.990.714.362.030.59.772.1

    >= 751.391.170.360.232.140.390.20.231.310.191.450.60.065.220.21

    lfpr

    Pool

    AU

    BE

    DE

    DK

    SP

    FI

    FR

    GR

    NL

    IR

    IT

    LU

    PO

    UK

    Labour force participation rates (Males)

    employmentrates

    Pool

    AU

    BE

    DE

    DK

    SP

    FI

    FR

    GR

    NL

    IR

    IT

    LU

    PO

    UK

    Labour force participation rates (Females)

    unemploymentrates

    inactivityrates

    retirementtransitions

    transitions

    MALE

    PoolAUBEDEDKSPFIFRGRNLIRITLUPOUK

    45-490.310.560.240.740.540.060.640.160.8800.120.880.720.80.48

    50-541.552.661.582.180.560.640.8212.501.33.982.443.182.3

    55-595.5312.326.827.942.543.166.128.146.60.643.5610.1818.84.986.26

    6017.1453.919.623.719.320.228.636.611.32.54.714.141.47.612.7

    6119.0262.535.436.227.521.836.144.414.53.18.518.144.18.912.8

    6214.541.716.738.515.920.324.745.912.4210.418.845.81014.8

    6313.2623.521.839.934.619.42523.512.33.28.915.933.39.315.7

    6414.5723.116.757.833.326.823.624.314.94.36.515558.621.3

    6533.157.131.655.417.863.629.83733.262834.846.725.756.9

    66-6925.4746.4546.8559.0340.3357.2833.6531.63395.5817.8832.5548.8822.1343.9

    70-7425.329032.1242.6837.0861.5232.226.8639.367.8815.9837.4836.6624.8237.84

    >=7528.3624.2440.9161.4439.5172.6327.2719.6941.412.4719.0542.9718.1840.5340.84

    FEMALE

    PoolAUBEDEDKSPFIFRGRNLIRITLUPOUK

    45-490.40.70.91.520.5400.240.120.8600.120.422.11.040.9

    50-541.151.661.822.182.320.241.260.542.140.120.221.942.882.262.62

    55-593.6110.66.765.824.580.55.464.683.740.241.084.24.24.128.18

    6011.517.816.217.321.72.430.126.96.30.30.812.55.9736.1

    6110.8714.141.744.635.73.22626.44.20.31.21010.98.933

    626.966.229.14123.2325.311.96.50.62.38.38.18.139.5

    637.036.921.336.323.7331.3106.60.327.17.311.337.2

    648.4810.723.232.228.35.138.96.76.902.669.718.234.7

    6513.226.915.623.51814.753.324.9191.27.76.66.615.741.1

    66-6912.747.628.3352.1546.489.9355.3313.823.381.7346.67.6320.3338.23

    70-7410.558.523.6638.82708.56407.2221.941.422.245.949.619.4849.22

    >=7512.038.8839.3349.5227.2711.3827.278.2525.881.914.336.5815.5721.3550.11

    MalesFemales

    45-490.310.4

    50-541.551.15

    55-595.533.61

    6017.1411.5

    6119.0210.87

    6214.56.96

    6313.267.03

    6414.578.48

    6533.113.22

    66-6925.4712.74

    70-7425.3210.55

    >=7528.3612.03

    transitions

    Males

    Females

    Transitions out of the labour force to retirement

    retirement age

    MALE

    E-RE-UE-CRemain EU-RC-RRemain RRemain U C

    45-490.451.990.1792.590.040.021.433.31

    50-541.652.210.1787.440.140.034.43.96

    55-594.862.770.3369.940.560.1315.85.63

    609.872.060.5549.713.220.4829.284.82

    6110.131.250.4241.782.850.2940.093.19

    627.590.960.6536.882.070.1748.972.72

    636.490.830.5933.771.440.1854.052.64

    646.770.680.5629.231.160.32592.29

    6512.450.280.5120.551.30.2862.951.68

    66-695.390.040.5211.50.390.1680.891.11

    70-742.80.010.477.310.070.1888.121.04

    >=751.860.010.564.450.040.3891.351.35

    FEMALE

    E-RE-UE-CRemain EU-RC-RRemain RRemain U C

    45-490.371.762.4160.910.060.231.8132.46

    50-540.961.572.6652.60.130.453.837.83

    55-592.31.442.7735.980.471.1111.4844.45

    605.270.912.6321.751.493.5920.3644

    615.180.252.8216.232.193.7828.7440.81

    624.240.142.2614.260.872.5435.1840.51

    633.240.232.1612.920.722.7637.4140.55

    643.110.152.1910.380.293.1141.6139.17

    653.590.052.177.430.264.8944.0537.55

    66-692.280.021.574.640.134.4554.8432.08

    70-741.250.021.4630.023.3863.1227.76

    >=751.2301.963.460.053.6165.6224.06

    retirement age

    E-R

    E-U

    E-C

    Remain E

    U-R

    C-R

    Remain R

    Remain U C

    Transitions by type (Females)

    Hoja2

    E-R

    E-U

    E-C

    Remain E

    U-R

    C-R

    Remain R

    Remain U C

    Transitions by type (Males)

    Hoja3

    Effective average ageMaleFemale

    199562.1665.29

    199662.1664.32

    199761.7364.5

    199863.1165.14

    199961.8163.95

    200061.6964.15

    200161.9865.29

    1994-200162.1164.64

    Productivity thresholds

    Pool48.6346.68

    Pool countries average49.6747.09

    RE4946.53

    RE countries average49.4946.97

    FE65.4669.4

    We calculate age average for each of the years in order to account for cohort effects; whether a populated generation is being retired because of a change in the age structure of the working age population, for instance. We have to note that perhaps 8 wav

    MaleFemaleMaleFemale

    1995200119952001

    Statutory age

    59.956.764.963.56560

    Belgium63.4636566.96564

    Germany58.161.261.161.365

    Denmark585663.165.365

    Spain64.363.371.270.365

    58.159.159.560.263 to 68

    France59.85962.460.160

    Greece64.359.366.470.56560

    The Netherlands63.271.56672.165

    Ireland64.36468.370.165

    Italy58.862.260.464.76560

    Luxembourg60.757.96364.165

    Portugal63.464.466.164.965

    UK62.463.566.665.96065

    1. Effective 1995 ages are 1996 for Austria and 1997 for Finland as there lack the first wave and two first waves in the respective countries. Some strange figures correspond to small sample sizes.

    unemployment

    MalesFemalesMalesFemales

    199519952005Male 1995Male 2005Female 1995Female 2005

    EU-158.41186.1EU-158.46.786.1

    BE3.8114.44.2BE3.84.44.44.2

    DK6.9119.85.1DK6.94.89.85.1

    DE10.41113.712.9DE10.413.113.712.9

    GR3.6112.94GR3.63.12.94

    SP12.811117.8SP12.86.1117.8

    IT4114.93.1IT43.74.93.1

    FI16.3119.95.8FI16.36.79.95.8

    SE7.5117.92.9SE7.55.37.92.9

    UK10.2113.91.8UK10.23.43.91.8

    EU-15821

    BE4.421

    DK9.821

    DE13.721

    GR2.921EU-158.46.716.1

    SP1121BE3.84.414.2

    IT4.921DK6.94.815.1

    FI9.921DE10.413.1112.9

    SE7.921GR3.63.114

    UK3.921SP12.86.117.8

    EU-156.712IT43.713.1

    BE4.412FI16.36.715.8

    DK4.812SE7.55.312.9

    DE13.112UK10.23.411.8

    GR3.112EU-1586.12

    SP6.112BE4.44.22

    IT3.712DK9.85.12

    FI6.712DE13.712.92

    SE5.312GR2.942

    UK3.412SP117.82

    EU-156.122IT4.93.12

    BE4.222FI9.95.82

    DK5.122SE7.92.92

    DE12.922UK3.91.82

    GR422

    SP7.822

    IT3.122

    FI5.822

    SE2.922

    UK1.822

    Male 1995

    Male 2005

    Female 1995

    Female 2005

    Unemployment rates

    employment19952005employment19952005

    employment rateMales 1995Females 1995Males 2005Females 2005Males 1995Females 1995Males 2005Females 2005

    inactive1995a002005a00EU-1547.225.353.135.4EU-1547.225.353.135.4

    AU42.218.241.322.9AU42.218.241.322.9

    BE33.512.941.722.1BE33.512.941.722.1

    55-64geoDK64.735.965.653.5DK64.735.965.653.5

    MaleFemale:::42.551.833.7EU-15DE48.527.153.537.5DE48.527.153.537.5

    FI35.633.452.852.7FI35.633.452.852.7

    FR33.825.640.735.2FR33.825.640.735.2

    GR59.624.158.825.8GR59.624.158.825.8

    IR59.818.665.737.3IR59.818.665.737.3

    TotalMalesFemalesTotalMalesFemalesIT44.613.542.720.8IT44.613.542.720.8

    DK29.844.3DKDE37.748.527.145.453.537.5DELU35.112.638.324.9LU35.112.638.324.9

    DE39.257.2DEIR39.259.818.651.665.737.3IRNL39.718.356.935.2NL39.718.356.935.2

    GR39.373.1GRSP32.348.417.543.159.727.4SPPO61.432.658.143.7PO61.432.658.143.7

    FR56.761.8FRIT28.444.613.531.442.720.8ITSE65.259.272.066.7SE65.259.27266.7

    SP48.417.559.727.4SP48.417.559.727.4

    IT5678.8ITLU23.735.112.631.738.324.9LUUK56.239.066.048.1UK56.2396648.1

    LU60.674.9LUNL28.939.718.346.156.935.2NL

    NL40.363.7NLAU29.742.218.231.841.322.9AU

    AU57.276.7AUPO46.061.432.650.558.143.7PO

    PO37.553.3POFI34.435.633.452.752.852.7FI

    FI43.643.9FISE62.065.259.269.472.066.7SE

    SE24.232SEUK47.556.239.056.966.048.1UK

    UK3250.9UK

    time1995a002005a00

    sex

    geo

    :::42.551.833.7

    36.047.225.344.153.135.4

    22.933.512.931.841.722.1

    49.864.735.959.565.653.5

    37.748.527.145.4b53.5b37.5b

    39.259.818.651.665.737.3

    41.059.624.141.658.825.8

    32.348.417.543.1b59.7b27.4b

    29.633.825.637.940.735.2

    28.444.613.531.442.720.8

    23.735.112.631.738.324.9

    28.939.718.346.156.935.2

    29.742.218.231.841.322.9

    46.061.432.650.558.143.7

    34.435.633.452.752.852.7

    62.065.259.269.4b72.0b66.7b

    47.556.239.056.966.048.1

    44.764.2

    43.362.4

    56.876

    29.844.3

    39.257.2

    32.261.6

    39.373.1

    36.770.1

    56.761.8

    5678.8

    60.674.9

    40.363.7

    57.276.7

    37.553.3

    43.643.9

    24.232

    3250.9

    Male

    Female

    Inactivity rates in 2005

    Males 1995

    Females 1995

    Males 2005

    Females 2005

    Employment rates of older workers (55 to 64 years old)

  • Cuestiones (y preguntas?)Qu relacin existe entre el incremento en la tasa de participacin laboral y la tasa de desempleo en trabajadores de ms edad en la UE? Reformas del sistema de pensiones (edades, requisitos, etc.)Ajustes de la estructura educativa en algunos pases (Espaa, Portugal, Polonia, etc.)Pero principalmente reduccin en las tasas de desempleo de los individuos de la cohorte 55-64 (incentivos y mejor funcionamiento del mercado de trabajo)

  • Cuestiones (y preguntas?)

  • Cuestiones (y preguntas?)

  • Cuestiones (y preguntas?)

    Coeficiente en una regresin de lfpf sobre urf es -0.81 (R-cuadrado = 0.45). Coeficiente de correlacin -0.27Coeficiente en una regresin de lfpm sobre urm es -0.38 (R-cuadrado = 0.38). Coeficiente de correlacin -0.52

  • La ley de dependencia

  • Cuestiones (y preguntas?)Primero, autofinanciacin (60 65 % de las necesidades). Segundo, es necesario poner recursos adicionales. Cmo? Impuestos especficos?Co-pagos? Qu instrumentos nuevos (seguros, hipoteca inversa)?

  • Se pueden combinar la adecuacin de las pensiones, la sostenibilidad del sistema y la financiacin del modelo de bienestar

  • Cuestiones (y preguntas?)Es posible combinar gasto pblico con medidas especficas para evitar que la nueva ley aada presiones adicionales al presupuestoPara el diseo de polticas especficas es importante (y conveniente) mirar a nivel micro (i.e., evaluar las necesidades y los recursos de los individuos afectados)Importancia de la coordinacinA diferentes niveles de gobiernoEn diferentes mercados (trabajo, bienes seguros, etc.)