Presentacin de PowerPoint

Ms all de los informes de IPCCFerran Puig VilarCentro de Postgrado - Universidad Camilo Jos Cela18-19/06/2015

Quin es ste?Ingeniero de Telecomunicacin: 1978 3 cursos de ingeniera industrial - Doctorado interrumpidoCetisa EditoresChico del almacn: 1968 -Director de Publicaciones (1982-1989)Director General: 1989 -1992

Vicepresidente de la Asociacin Iberoamericana de Periodistas Especializados y Tcnicos (AIPET): 1984-1988Presidente de la Asociacin de Prensa Profesional APP (1988-1996)Miembro del Consejo de Administracin y del Comit Ejecutivo de la OJD (1993-1997)Distintos puestos, por cuenta propia y ajena, de edicin de revistas profesionales, organizacin de jornadas y salones (1993-2007)Director de Publicaciones de Cetisa Editores: 2003-2004Dedicacin al cambio climtico: 2004-2005; 2008-Dedicacin a la crisis energtica 2014-Tiene una hija de 23aos: Mara

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De qu estamos hablando?Los cientficos hemos constatado que existe un problema de emisiones, pero no lo podemos resolver

Puesto que el CO2 lo producen las mquinas, tendremos que llamar a los ingenieros

Estos, a su vez, dirn que existe la tecnologa necesaria para solucionar el problema, pero que cuesta dinero, as que se llamar a los economistas

Los economistas harn sus clculos y dirn que, para conseguirlo, habr que cambiar nuestro actual modelo social basado en el transporte, el derroche energtico... as que se llamar a los socilogos

stos, a su vez, dirn que es un problema de escala de valores que ellos no pueden resolver. As que se acudir a los filsofos para que nos digan en qu valores deberamos poner nuestro empeo e intersCientfico annimo japons del IPCC, finals 1980s Citado por Juan Negrillo a Carmen Prez-Lanzac - Cambio climtico: la nueva religin? El Pas 14/02/2008 Negacionisme Comunicaci

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CientficEconmicMilitarAgrcolaDrets socialsCultural

+Ferrat

tica: Disciplina filosfica que tracta de la moralMoral: Disciplina filosfica o teolgica que tracta de les accions humanes quant a llur bonesa o malesa

Dany: (Carlos Thiebaut): Mal no necessari que esdevingui o que hagus esdevingut i que, a ms, cal que no esdevingui.

Marc general acadmic tica MA: vocaci revisionista + caos la ltima fronteratica com inter-connector entre formaci i dret

Gnesis, 26And God said, Let us make man in our image, after our likeness: and let them have dominion over the fish of the sea, and over the fowl of the air, and over the cattle, and over all the earth, and over every creeping thing that creepeth upon the earth.Then God said, 'Let us make man in our image, in our likeness and let them rule over the fish of the sea and the birds of the air, over the livestock, over all the earth and over all the creatures that move along the ground.King James Version (1611)International Version

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Tormenta tica perfectaProblemasDilema del prisioneroTragedia de los comunes(Garret Hardin)Acceso ilimitado acceso restringidoCmo se distribuyeDao diferido en el espacio y en el tiempoResponsabilidad acumuladaResponsabilidad intergeneracional

Multiplicidad de actores:Passive bystandersSomos tambin perpetradores?Culpables, responsables? Quines son?

Riesgos ticos

DistraccinComplacenciaDudas no razonablesFalsa illusinAprovecharseFalso testimonioHipocresaAtencin selectivaStephen M. Gardiner(2006) - A Perfect Moral Storm: Climate Change, Intergenerational Ethics and the Problem of Moral Corruption Environmental Values doi: 10.3197/096327106778226293 + altres

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Antropocentrismo radical

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Lyndon B. Johnson, 1965Esta generacin ha alterado la composicin de la atmsfera a escala global mediante un incremento sostenido de dixido de carbono procedente de la quema de combustibles fsiles [que pueden generar] cambios importantes en el clima.

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James Gustav Speth (1980)The reports contents were alarming. The report predicted a warming that will probably be conspicuous within the next twenty years, and it called for early action: the time for implementing the policies is fast passing. The year was 1979, almost three decades ago I soon presented the report to President Carter

The administration responded by asking the National Academy of Sciences to assess the scientific basis for concern about man-made climate change. An NAS effort led by Massachusetts Institute of Technology A wait-and-see policy may mean waiting until it is too late.

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James Gustav Speth (1980)The failure to rise to the climate change challenge is part of a larger failure to confront other environmental problems I was chair of Carters Council on Environmental Quality at the time, and this report was our third, and final, major report on the climate-change challenge.

For those who cared to look, there was enough information on climate change three decades ago to stir the deepest concerns.

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James E. Hansen and Makiko Sato (2011) - Paleoclimate Implications for Human-Made Climate Change - En: Climate Change: Inferences from Paleoclimate and Regional Aspects. A. Berger, F. Mesinger, and D. ijaki, Eds. Springer (In press) - NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies and Columbia University Earth Institute - http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/mailings/2011/20110118_MilankovicPaper.pdf

Font: Skeptical Science - http://www.skepticalscience.com Imatge: John Garrett

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El term-metro

David Archer (2006) - Global warming: Understanding the forecast - Blackwell Publishers: Oxford

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El CO2-metro

Richard Alley (2005) - Ice-Sheet and Sea-Level Changes Science 310:456-460 DOI:10.1126/science.1114613 - Department of Geosciences and Earth and Environmental Systems Institute, Pennsylvania State University> 35 Ma; +73 mSin hielo permanente~ 35 Ma; +45 5 mHielo permanente en AntrtidaHoyltimo mximo glacial

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Caracterstiques dinmiquesLa resposta amplifica o redueix la prpia pertorbaciPropietats emergents: > partsExistncia dun llindar destabilitatVida prpia si ha entrat a zona inestableSistemes multiestablesR + duu a caosComportament contra- intutiuRetard entre pertorbaci i resposta (gaireb sempre)Resposta exponencial (no proporcional)Possible histresiDificultat daprenentatgeRetardsIndiferent a lexponent

Inici lineal!

16Paper: 439.000 Km (2/3 diuen < 10%)Bacteri 20 min 2 dies Terra

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La magnitud de la tragediaForamentEnergia til 1 molcula de CO2x100.000 en efecte hivernacle7KM persones, 40 estufes de 1400 W (Purkey & Johnson, 2010; Hansen, 2011)Fbrica CFC suficient canviar estaci geolgica16.000 vessaments BP / dia1 Hiro / 4 segons 8M HirosPoblaci triplicada en 80 anys

1r experiment; 2n experiment2n experiment educatiu i geopoltic18

19Font: IPCC

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Veerabhadran Ramanathan and Y. Feng (2008) - On avoiding dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system: Formidable challenges ahead - Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences PNAS 105:14245-14250 doi:10.1073/pnas.0803838105 - Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California at San Diego

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RealidadCientficosClimatlogosIntegracin (Informes)Institucionalitzacin cientfica (IPCC)IntermediacinPeriodistasMedios de comunicacinPoltica, PblicoLimitaciones perceptivasEfecto BarberEfecto MercerTruth to power?Mnimo comn denominadorEfecto negacionismoEn positivo!Informacin como mercancaResistencia psicolgicaThink tanks conservadoresAgencias de PRAstroturfInstitucionalizacin polticaAccin polticaNegociacin de lo no-negociableResistencia cambioAccin inadecuada o insuficiente

Las sucesivas ediciones de este informe han demostrado que el objetivo climtico de limitar el calentamiento global a 2 C se hace ms difcil y costoso de conseguir cada ao que pasa.Even with the current mitigation commitments and pledges fully implemented, there is roughly a 20 percent likelihood of exceeding 4C by 2100. If they are not met, a warming of 4C could occur as early as the 2060s.

Governments ambitions to limit warming to 2C appear highly unrealistic ... We have passed a critical threshold Even to have a reasonable prospect of getting to a 4C scenario would imply nearly quadrupling the current rate of decarbonisation."

Probabilitats T a 2100Andrei Sokolov et al (2009) - Probabilistic forecast for 21st century climate based on uncertainties in emissions (without policy) and climate parameters - Journal of Climate 22:51755204 doi:10.1175/2009JCLI2863.1 - Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, Massachusetts Institute of Technology

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Gaia Vince (2009) - How to survive the coming century - New Scientist, Marzo 2009 - http://www.newscientist.com/article/mg20126971.700-how-to-survive-the-coming-century.html

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La respuesta necesariaJames Hansen et al (2011) The Case for Young People and Nature: A Path to a Healthy, Natural, Prosperous Future NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies + Columbia University Earth Institute 04/05/2011 Columbia University Earth Institute, New York http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/mailings/2011/20110505_CaseForYoungPeople.pdf- 15 autores

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Solucin?

Kevin Anderson and Alice Bows (2011) - Beyond dangerous climate change: emission scenarios for a new world - Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London A 369:20-44 doi:10.1098/rsta.2010.0290 - Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research + School of Mechanical, Aerospace and Civil Engineering + School of Environmental Sciences and School of Development, University of East Anglia; Sustainable Consumption Institute, School of Earth, Atmospheric and Environmental Sciences, University of Manchester

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Gail Tverberg (2012) - Evidence that Oil Limits are Leading to Declining Economic Growth - Our Finite World - http://ourfiniteworld.com/2012/07/13/plan-for-lower-growth-in-real-gdp-going-forward/

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