Metodos de calcuos de la CNA_ proyecto san hipolito.xlsx
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Metodo grafico Poblacion actual 2012 1980 10355 Años a proyectar = 20 1990 12837 Año = 2030 2000 14605 2010 16640 2030 20826.9 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 f(x) = 206.222432432432 x − 397804.529729728 R² = 0.998444292274865 Chart Title Column C Linear (Column C) Linear (Column C) Axis Title Axis Title
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Transcript of Metodos de calcuos de la CNA_ proyecto san hipolito.xlsx
Metodos de calculo de la CNAMetodo graficoAjuste lineal (minimos cuadrados)Ajuste no lineal a) Ajuste exponencialAjuste no lineal b) Ajuste logaritmicoAjuste no lineal c) Ajuste potencialPoblacion actual al 2012Poblacion actual 2012FormulasformulasFormulasFormulasP= a+bttPiti*Pit^2Pi^2P= a*e^bttPiti*Piln tiln ti*(Pi)ln ti^2Pi^2P=at^btPiti*Pit^2lnPilnti*lnPilnPi^2lntlnt^2198010355Aos a proyectar =20Y=mx+b198010355205029003920400107226025a=e^((lnPi-bti)/(N))tPiti*Pit^2lnPiti*lnPilnPi^2P=a+b(lntf)198010355205029007.590852123778603.273740795357.6210359637107226025a=e^((lnPi-bti)/(N))(el mismo de ajuste exponencial)1980103552050290039204009.245224773870.179134108485.47418111867.590852123757.6210359637Poblcion 2012rmediaeliminando mayor y menorP2030=199012837Ao =2030a=(Pi-bti)/N199012837255456303960100164788569b=((NtilnPi)-(tilnPi))/((Nti^2)(ti^2))1980103552050290039204009.245224773818305.545052182885.4741811186a=(Pi-blnt)/(n)199012837255456307.595889917797508.438873752957.6975436421164788569b=((Nlnti*lnPi)-(lntilnPi))/((Nlnti^2)(lnti^2))1990128372554563039601009.460086905171.857778743189.49324425187.595889917757.6975436421Metodo Grafico208270.992187321970019216200014605b=(NTiPi-ti*Pi)/raiz(NTi^2-Ti^2)200014605292100004000000213306025t=ti1990128372554563039601009.460086905118825.57294111989.4932442518b=(nlntPilnt*Pi)/(n(lnt)^2(lnt^2))200014605292100007.6009024595111011.18042161257.7737181995213306025t=ti2000146052921000040000009.589119214872.885959824891.95120731617.600902459557.7737181995Ajuste linealMinimos cuadrados208270.9977020803201016640201016640334464004040100276889600(ti)^2=636804002000146052921000040000009.589119214819178.238429643791.9512073161201016640334464007.6058900011126562.00961752457.8495627081276889600(lnti)^2=923.76693952442010166403344640040401009.719564714473.925940075794.46993823697.605890001157.8495627081Ajuste no linealAjuste exponencial174540.9911434321203020826.9Donde:total79805443710870493015920600762210219(lnPi)^2=1445.06386209352010166403344640040401009.719564714419536.325075894294.4699382369(lnti)^2=923.766939524479805443710870493030.393534502413684.902653684230.9418605134762210219(lnPi)^2=1445.0638620935total7980544371087049301592060038.0139956081288.8488127519361.388570923430.393534502230.9418605134Ajuste no linealAjuste logaritmico171070.9978082092P= poblacion a determinar(Pi)^2=2963386969Ao a proyectar2012total7980544371087049301592060038.013995608175845.6814988396361.3885709234(Pi)^2=2963386969Ao a proyectar2012Ajuste no linealAjuste potencial174450.9914114434t= Aos (Tiempo a proyectar)(ti)^2=63680400n=4n=4b=411464.516427534n=493660N= numeros pares a ordenarb=206.23e=2.718281828n=4lntf= 2012a=-3112855.99409749e=2.718281828Numero de mtodos5a=-397819.6P=17107.0710608852N=4P2030=20827.30b=1.6E-02b=3.1E+01Coeficciente de correlacion ( r )Aos a proyectar2030P2030=20827b=0.0155205213Coeficciente de correlacion ( r )b=3.1E+01Coeficciente de correlacion ( r )Coeficciente de correlacion ( r )a=0.0000000005r=0.9911434321a=0=r=0.9914114434
=r=0.9977020803e^((lnPi-bti)/(N))3.6E+13=r=0.9978082092
P2030=17454.41P2030=1.74E+04P2030=17454P2030=17445Metodo graficoAjuste linealAjuste no lineal a) Ajuste exponencialAjuste no lineal b) Ajuste logaritmicoAjuste no lineal c) Ajuste potencialPoblacion actual al 2022Poblacion proyectada a 2022FormulasformulasFormulasFormulasP= a+bttPiti*Pit^2Pi^2P= a*e^bttPiti*Piln tiln ti*(Pi)ln ti^2Pi^2P=at^btPiti*Pit^2lnPilnti*lnPilnPi^2lntlnt^2198010355Y=mx+b198010355205029003920400107226025a=e^((lnPi-bti)/(N))tPiti*Pit^2lnPiti*lnPilnPi^2P=a+b(lntf)198010355205029007.590852123778603.273740795357.6210359637107226025a=e^((lnPi-bti)/(N))(el mismo de ajuste exponencial)1980103552050290039204009.245224773870.179134108485.47418111867.590852123757.6210359637Poblcion 2022rmediaeliinando mayor y menorP2012=199012837a=(Pi-bti)/N199012837255456303960100164788569b=((NtilnPi)-(tilnPi))/((Nti^2)(ti^2))1980103552050290039204009.245224773818305.545052182885.4741811186a=(Pi-blnt)/(n)199012837255456307.595889917797508.438873752957.6975436421164788569b=((Nlnti*lnPi)-(lntilnPi))/((Nlnti^2)(lnti^2))1990128372554563039601009.460086905171.857778743189.49324425187.595889917757.6975436421Metodo Grafico32000.9928164501955518002200014605b=(NTiPi-ti*Pi)/raiz(NTi^2-Ti^2)200014605292100004000000213306025t=ti1990128372554563039601009.460086905118825.57294111989.4932442518b=(nlntPilnt*Pi)/(n(lnt)^2(lnt^2))200014605292100007.6009024595111011.18042161257.7737181995213306025t=ti2000146052921000040000009.589119214872.885959824891.95120731617.600902459557.7737181995Ajuste linealMinimos cuadrados191770.9977020803201016640201016640334464004040100276889600(ti)^2=636804002000146052921000040000009.589119214819178.238429643791.9512073161201016640334464007.6058900011126562.00961752457.8495627081276889600(lnti)^2=923.76693952442010166403344640040401009.719564714473.925940075794.46993823697.605890001157.8495627081Ajuste no linealAjuste exponencial203850.9911434321201219216Donde:total79805443710870493015920600762210219(lnPi)^2=1445.06386209352010166403344640040401009.719564714419536.325075894294.4699382369(lnti)^2=923.766939524479805443710870493030.393534502413684.902653684230.9418605134762210219(lnPi)^2=1445.0638620935total7980544371087049301592060038.0139956081288.8488127519361.388570923430.393534502230.9418605134Ajuste no linealAjuste logaritmico191470.997808209220223200P= poblacion a determinarPi^2=2963386969Ao a proyectar2022total7980544371087049301592060038.013995608175845.6814988396361.3885709234(Pi)^2=2963386969Ao a proyectar2022Ajuste no linealAjuste potencial203400.9914114434t= Aos (Tiempo a proyectar)ti^2=63680400n=4b=411464.516427534n=482249N= numeros pares a ordenarb=206.23e=2.718281828n=4lntf= 2022a=-3112855.99409749e=2.718281828Numero de etodos5a=-397819.6P2022=19147.0579684675N=4P2022=19177.46b=1.6E-02b=3.1E+01Coeficciente de correlacion ( r )Aos a proyectar2022P2022=19177b=1.6E-02Coeficciente de correlacion ( r )b=3.1E+01si determinamos la poblacion 2012 con respecto a los resultados obtenidos de los valores de corelacion la poblacion seria de 3245 ya que el valor obtenido de r para el ajuste logaritmico es el mas sercano a 1. Y si hacemos una evaluacion con todos los valores btenidos para las poblaciones en 2012 la poblacion seria 3506 habitantes.Coeficciente de correlacion ( r )Coeficciente de correlacion ( r )a=0.0000000005r=0.9911434321a=0=r=0.9914114434
=r=0.9977020803e^((lnPi-bti)/(N))4.3E+13=r=0.9978082092Tambien podemos evaluar 18002+19147185752P2022=2.04E+04P2022=2.03E+04P2022=20385P2022=20340y ontener un promedio de los 2 resultados esperados.
