Calculo de Confiabilidad

7/25/2019 Calculo de Confiabilidad

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Clculo de la Disponibilidad ante Una Demanda Fija (Dmx) y

FOR: 0.0634 CAPACIDAD: 100 kW

SOF: 0.13 DEMANDA MAX: 550 kW

FOR EDC. 0.01

Unidades Estado (i) Capacidad (kW) (!i) P"o#a#i$idad P. co EDC.

10 0 1000 10 -0.138692442 -0.13730552

1 900 9 0.6088071569 0.602719085

2 800 8 0.399498443 0.395503459

3 700 7 0.1107519631 0.109644443

4 600 6 0.0176968016 0.017519834

5 500 5 0.0018093071 0.001791214

6 400 4 0.0001230354 0.000121805

7 300 3 5.57038E-006 5.5147E-006

8 200 2 0.000000162 1.6037E-007

9 100 1 2.74658E-009 2.7191E-009

10 0 0 2.06889E-011 2.0482E-011

1 0.%%

Dispoi#i$idad &ota$ ' : %%.%%1*o"as d' Idispoi#i$idad: 0.1+%


9 0 900 9 -0.077811727 -0.07703361

1 800 8 0.6278261299 0.621547869

2 700 7 0.3528243433 0.34929613 600 6 0.0846050948 0.083759044

4 500 5 0.0115227345 0.011407507

5 400 4 0.0009784748 0.00096869

6 300 3 5.31134E-005 5.2582E-005

7 200 2 1.80071E-006 1.7827E-006

8 100 1 3.48706E-008 3.4522E-008

9 0 0 2.95347E-010 2.9239E-010

1 0.%%

Dispoi#i$idad &ota$ ' : %%.%,-

*o"as d' Idispoi#i$idad: 1.0%%%


8 0 800 8 -0.008053268 -0.00797274

1 700 7 0.6364730806 0.63010835

2 600 6 0.302620632 0.299594426

3 500 5 0.0615246119 0.060909366

4 400 4 0.0069451163 0.006875665


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5 300 3 0.0004702866 0.000465584

6 200 2 0.000019105 0.000018914

7 100 1 4.31154E-007 4.2684E-007

8 0 0 4.16986E-009 4.1282E-009

1 0.%%

Dispoi#i$idad &ota$ ' : %%.%10*o"as d' Idispoi#i$idad: +.0-0%


7 0 700 7 0.0715058674 0.070790809

1 600 6 0.6325691035 0.626243412

2 500 5 0.2500372034 0.247536831

3 400 4 0.0419254406 0.041506186

4 300 3 0.0037664873 0.003728822

5 200 2 0.0001906863 0.000188779

6 100 1 5.15352E-006 0.000005102

7 0 0 5.80641E-008 5.7483E-008

1 0.%%

Dispoi#i$idad &ota$ ' : %%.,0-1

*o"as d' Idispoi#i$idad: /5.%/0


6 0 600 6 0.1618728822 0.160254153

1 500 5 0.6136412897 0.607504877

2 400 4 0.1965660484 0.194600388

3 300 3 0.0261096731 0.0258485764 200 2 0.0017504133 0.001732909

5 100 1 5.88991E-005 5.8310E-005

6 0 0 7.94281E-007 7.8634E-007

1 0.%%

Dispoi#i$idad &ota$ ' : %%.1+1%*o"as d' Idispoi#i$idad: ,.-1%%


5 0 500 5 0.2641464304 0.261504966

1 400 4 0.5768897576 0.571120862 300 3 0.1440988688 0.14265788

3 200 2 0.0142217787 0.014079561

4 100 1 0.0006325537 0.000626228

5 0 0 1.06108E-005 1.0505E-005

1 0.%%

Dispoi#i$idad &ota$ ' : %%.0000


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*o"as d' Idispoi#i$idad: ,.+000


4 0 400 4 0.379524382 0.375729138

1 300 3 0.5191513536 0.51395984

2 200 2 0.0949923885 0.094042465

3 100 1 0.0061947544 0.0061328074 0 0 0.0001371215 0.00013575

1 0.%%

Dispoi#i$idad &ota$ ' : %%.0000*o"as d' Idispoi#i$idad: ,.+000


3 0 300 3 0.5093122204 0.504219098

1 200 2 0.4368597094 0.432491112

2 100 1 0.0521422601 0.051620837

3 0 0 0.0016858101 0.001668952

1 0.%%



2 0 200 2 0.6549321235 0.648382802

1 100 1 0.326001313 0.3227413

2 0 0 0.0190665635 0.018875898

1 0.%%



1 0 100 1 0.81793278 0.809753452

1 0 0 0.18206722 0.180246548

1 0.%%



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onsiderando el Enlace con EDC:

P. si EDC.

-0.0013869244 1 -0.001386924

0.0060880716 1 0.006088072

0.0039949844 1 0.003994984

0.0011075196 1 0.00110752

0.000176968 1 0.000176968

1.80931E-005 0 0

1.23035E-006 0 0

5.57038E-008 0 0

1.61994E-009 0 0

2.74658E-011 0 0

2.06889E-013 0 0

0.01 0.009980619

P. si EDC.

-0.0007781173 1 -0.000778117

0.0062782613 1 0.006278261

0.0035282434 1 0.0035282430.0008460509 1 0.000846051

0.0001152273 0 0

9.78475E-006 0 0

5.31134E-007 0 0

0.000000018 0 0

3.48706E-010 0 0

2.95347E-012 0 0

0.01 0.009874438

P. si EDC.

-8.05327E-005 1 -8.0533E-005

0.0063647308 1 0.006364731

0.0030262063 1 0.003026206

0.0006152461 0 0

6.94512E-005 0 0


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4.70287E-006 0 0

1.91050E-007 0 0

4.31154E-009 0 0

4.16986E-011 0 0

0.01 0.009310404

P. si EDC.

0.0007150587 1 0.000715059

0.006325691 1 0.006325691

0.002500372 0 0

0.0004192544 0 0

3.76649E-005 0 0

1.90686E-006 0 0

5.15352E-008 0 0

5.80641E-010 0 0

0.01 0.00704075

P. si EDC.

0.0016187288 1 0.001618729

0.0061364129 0 0

0.0019656605 0 0

0.0002610967 0 01.75041E-005 0 0

0.000000589 0 0

7.94281E-009 0 0

0.01 0.001618729

P. si EDC.

0.0026414643 0 0

0.0057688976 0 00.0014409887 0 0

0.0001422178 0 0

6.32554E-006 0 0

1.06108E-007 0 0

0.01 0


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P. si EDC.

0.0037952438 0 0

0.0051915135 0 0

0.0009499239 0 0

6.19475E-005 0 01.37122E-006 0 0

0.01 0

P. si EDC.

0.0050931222 0 0

0.0043685971 0 0

0.0005214226 0 0

1.68581E-005 0 0

0.01 0

P. si EDC.

0.0065493212 0 0

0.0032600131 0 0

0.0001906656 0 0

0.01 0

P. si EDC.

0.0081793278 0 0

0.0018206722 0 0

0.01 0


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MW Trb/Gen # of Unit-

Unit Type Nameplate Units Years ART SR NCF NOF SF

FOSSIL All Sizes 1,553 6,699.00 267.88 98.39 57.66 83.65 68.93

All Fuel Types 1-99 338 1,440.50 174.14 99.09 34.86 69.79 49.95

100-199 448 1,880.08 228.90 98.86 48.39 71.19 67.97

200-299 175 769.58 363.00 99.04 57.46 74.49 77.13

300-399 155 633.42 281.76 96.78 52.41 70.39 74.46

400-599 258 1,171.67 334.43 97.24 60.45 77.38 78.13

600-799 123 573.00 433.53 97.54 65.39 81.35 80.38

800-999 42 165.50 369.69 99.45 60.43 79.68 75.84

1000 Plus 14 65.25 707.02 97.33 63.10 76.53 82.45

Coal All Sizes 936 4,155.00 459.83 97.50 68.76 84.11 81.75

Primary 1-99 157 660.83 290.39 98.93 49.68 70.46 70.51

100-199 270 1,165.42 476.95 97.92 62.94 76.63 82.13

200-299 120 536.50 557.70 98.74 68.51 80.75 84.84300-399 90 403.75 414.03 94.73 65.50 78.71 83.23

400-599 166 780.58 491.19 95.98 70.26 83.31 84.34

600-799 92 431.42 633.34 97.08 72.98 84.51 86.35

800-999 29 116.75 684.87 99.29 74.42 85.72 86.81

1000 Plus 12 59.75 707.96 97.19 65.41 77.93 83.93

Oil *All Sizes 194 586.17 81.43 99.26 26.63 64.42 41.34

Primary 1-99 54 193.50 57.32 99.59 22.41 73.63 30.43

100-199 44 130.08 88.74 99.22 25.42 61.84 41.11

200-299 12 35.25 91.98 99.60 27.26 61.44 44.38

300-399 25 71.50 142.69 99.63 34.76 61.62 56.41

400-599 34 78.17 96.77 98.69 31.72 57.60 55.08

600-799 12 45.17 54.64 98.39 19.88 54.85 36.25

800-999 11 28.25 81.13 99.76 20.30 48.65 41.74

Gas All Sizes 495 1,811.92 129.35 99.08 29.86 62.69 47.63

Primary 1-99 143 567.25 122.41 98.96 18.85 59.18 31.85

100-199 156 573.67 89.09 99.39 24.48 53.21 46.01

200-299 47 178.50 179.97 99.47 31.36 51.10 61.36

300-399 58 158.08 164.31 98.41 29.66 49.22 60.26

400-599 69 254.75 184.75 98.60 33.20 52.13 63.69600-799 16 58.17 324.23 97.16 36.34 55.14 65.91

800-999 5 20.25 263.25 98.52 32.48 54.11 60.03

Lignite Primary All Sizes 26 112.25 602.82 97.42 78.82 89.32 88.25

MW Trb/Gen # of Unit-

Unit Type Nameplate Units Years ART SR NCF NOF SF


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NUCLEAR *All Sizes 128 542.75 2,688.50 97.83 80.50 97.16 82.85

All Types 400-799 23 84.58 2,441.94 99.66 77.75 96.19 80.83

800-999 50 213.42 2,506.25 96.07 80.80 96.37 83.84

1000 Plus 54 244.08 2,984.48 99.18 80.84 97.69 82.75

PWR All Sizes 75 328.08 2,914.72 98.06 82.93 98.56 84.14

400-799 10 46.00 3,003.30 100.00 85.34 99.62 85.67

800-999 27 116.00 2,750.04 97.10 82.02 97.55 84.09

1000 Plus 38 166.08 3,020.58 98.38 83.08 99.20 83.75

BWR *All Sizes 33 146.42 2,696.07 98.53 77.92 94.51 82.44

400-799 4 9.75 2,784.23 96.52 76.61 87.02 88.03

800-999 12 58.00 2,460.73 97.09 81.42 96.68 84.22

1000 Plus 16 78.00 2,919.63 100.00 76.01 94.29 80.61

CANDU All Sizes 20 68.25 1,903.51 95.70 72.62 93.69 77.51

JET All Sizes 361 1,399.00 4.76 96.87 2.31 58.07 3.98

ENGINE** 1-19 66 258.75 9.11 97.01 0.86 24.39 3.54 20 Plus 295 1,140.25 4.36 96.85 2.43 59.51 4.08

GAS All Sizes 895 3,333.50 7.77 95.04 3.87 83.15 4.66

TURBINE** 1-19 207 817.83 7.85 88.02 1.48 59.67 2.48

20-49 291 1,004.00 6.59 94.95 1.60 61.38 2.61

50 Plus 397 1,511.67 8.11 96.54 4.66 64.85 7.19

COMB. CYCLE All Sizes 80 297.33 54.62 98.44 48.18 78.59 61.30

HYDRO All Sizes 823 3,831.00 76.26 99.60 47.50 82.11 57.85

1-29 326 1,380.00 120.53 99.40 45.65 76.78 59.45

30 Plus 497 2,451.00 62.71 99.66 47.63 83.65 56.95

PUMPED

STORAGE All Sizes 80 346.00 4.69 99.32 15.65 74.14 21.11

MULTI-BOILER/

MULTI-TURBINE All Sizes 65 258.83 316.81 96.54 54.02 80.98 66.71

GEOTHERMAL All Sizes 16 34.50 682.61 95.56 47.60 51.64 92.19

DIESEL** All Sizes 165 455.83 7.02 99.10 5.38 123.85 4.34


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AF EAF FOR EFOR EFORd SOF FOF WSF WAF WEAF

86.68 84.72 5.17 7.09 6.28 9.56 3.76 75.84 85.71 83.51

88.97 87.83 5.41 7.10 5.51 8.18 2.86 54.47 89.11 87.85

87.16 85.07 4.88 6.77 5.89 9.36 3.49 68.70 87.00 84.92

86.64 84.75 4.81 6.45 6.03 9.46 3.90 76.84 86.56 84.64

84.59 82.31 5.54 7.67 7.09 11.05 4.37 74.04 84.60 82.35

84.95 82.53 5.45 7.63 7.22 10.55 4.51 78.38 84.95 82.54

85.75 83.39 5.20 7.36 7.08 9.85 4.41 80.32 85.69 83.34

86.43 84.74 3.58 4.99 4.65 10.75 2.82 76.23 86.54 84.92

82.89 80.11 8.01 9.77 9.72 9.93 7.18 82.85 83.26 80.56

86.95 84.61 4.66 6.56 6.30 9.05 4.00 84.36 86.37 84.00

87.94 86.29 3.95 5.73 5.10 9.16 2.90 72.26 88.20 86.49

87.93 85.28 4.22 6.15 5.88 8.45 3.62 82.63 87.91 85.33

87.42 85.38 4.48 6.04 5.91 8.60 3.98 84.69 87.32 85.2285.56 83.01 5.45 7.50 7.35 9.64 4.80 83.54 85.70 83.19

85.40 82.67 5.31 7.55 7.47 9.87 4.73 84.46 85.47 82.78

86.63 84.34 5.06 6.96 6.94 8.77 4.60 86.35 86.62 84.32

87.20 85.77 3.50 4.73 4.71 9.65 3.15 86.85 87.24 85.91

84.22 81.70 6.83 8.24 8.22 9.63 6.16 84.03 84.33 81.84

86.37 84.91 7.06 9.54 6.50 10.49 3.14 46.50 83.75 81.67

90.52 89.82 6.16 8.12 4.23 7.48 2.00 37.31 90.31 89.59

86.60 85.24 7.18 9.44 6.43 10.22 3.18 43.02 85.36 83.75

86.05 85.01 11.21 12.44 9.00 8.34 5.60 42.28 86.42 85.42

80.87 78.47 6.71 10.11 8.24 15.07 4.06 55.60 80.77 78.39

83.55 82.23 6.58 8.23 6.55 12.57 3.88 54.57 83.38 82.01

83.71 80.43 6.92 13.26 8.33 13.59 2.70 36.01 83.29 80.14

86.03 83.80 3.38 4.85 3.50 12.51 1.46 41.61 86.01 83.78

86.05 84.83 6.59 8.42 6.24 10.60 3.36 57.45 83.88 82.25

89.74 89.04 8.36 9.80 6.57 7.36 2.91 36.53 90.02 89.17

85.66 84.56 6.53 8.17 5.78 11.12 3.22 46.61 85.47 84.28

84.36 82.73 5.35 7.37 6.09 12.17 3.47 61.75 84.34 82.70

83.83 82.28 5.36 7.21 6.01 12.76 3.41 59.99 83.83 82.26

83.02 81.22 6.34 8.53 7.25 12.67 4.31 63.59 82.77 80.9379.84 77.80 6.37 8.98 8.02 15.68 4.48 66.16 80.07 78.04

82.57 80.09 4.52 7.35 6.26 14.59 2.84 60.76 83.02 80.54

88.58 86.17 3.71 5.66 5.64 8.02 3.40 88.21 88.46 86.02

AF EAF FOR EFOR EFORd SOF FOF WSF WAF WEAF


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82.88 80.30 7.83 9.47 9.47 10.09 7.04 83.29 83.33 80.77

80.83 77.99 5.16 6.93 6.93 14.79 4.40 81.55 81.55 78.72

83.84 81.11 7.12 9.45 9.45 9.74 6.43 83.80 83.80 81.03

82.81 80.47 9.22 10.20 10.20 8.79 8.40 83.27 83.33 80.97

84.14 82.39 7.31 8.13 8.13 9.23 6.64 84.41 84.41 82.57

85.67 83.92 1.92 2.71 2.71 12.68 1.68 86.43 86.43 84.77

84.09 83.09 7.70 8.26 8.26 8.90 7.01 84.18 84.18 83.20

83.75 81.48 8.47 9.48 9.48 8.50 7.75 84.24 84.24 81.93

82.54 80.05 8.29 9.37 9.37 10.01 7.45 82.35 82.47 80.01

88.03 84.88 6.39 7.65 7.65 5.96 6.01 88.16 88.16 84.90

84.22 81.91 4.72 5.94 5.94 11.61 4.17 83.79 83.79 81.47

80.80 78.33 10.83 11.77 11.76 9.41 9.79 81.18 81.38 78.89

77.52 70.72 9.45 16.51 16.51 14.40 8.09 78.93 78.94 71.52

91.58 90.01 40.70 51.58 12.42 5.69 2.73 3.73 91.59 89.43

92.81 92.56 48.32 51.70 13.04 3.89 3.31 3.37 93.06 92.8191.30 89.43 38.93 51.55 12.46 6.10 2.60 3.77 91.45 89.09

90.33 90.21 41.63 42.33 10.62 6.35 3.32 6.23 90.12 89.96

91.67 91.67 57.79 57.89 12.79 4.93 3.40 2.30 92.08 92.07

89.49 89.31 61.77 63.46 13.80 6.29 4.23 2.69 89.98 89.79

90.17 90.02 27.16 27.58 8.28 7.15 2.68 7.44 89.92 89.75

90.31 85.94 3.24 6.62 5.07 7.64 2.05 65.15 91.29 86.34

90.62 90.61 4.68 4.69 4.26 6.54 2.84 58.97 90.00 89.99

91.02 91.01 5.61 5.61 5.40 5.45 3.53 55.93 92.01 92.00

90.39 90.38 4.13 4.15 3.64 7.15 2.45 59.18 89.87 89.86

88.98 88.91 9.21 9.35 5.85 8.88 2.14 22.24 90.44 90.29

91.08 86.93 4.29 8.14 6.71 5.93 2.99 76.90 88.89 82.72

93.53 68.36 1.78 19.96 19.77 4.80 1.67 92.93 94.16 66.10

93.97 93.88 49.64 50.36 12.57 1.75 4.28 7.31 94.15 93.87


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WFOR WEFOR WSOF WFOF

5.22 7.21 10.11 4.18

4.92 6.65 8.08 2.82

4.84 6.72 9.50 3.50

4.82 6.50 9.55 3.89

5.54 7.66 11.05 4.34

5.42 7.58 10.56 4.49

5.23 7.41 9.88 4.44

3.51 4.83 10.69 2.77

7.66 9.31 9.87 6.87

4.94 6.83 9.24 4.39

3.92 5.67 8.86 2.95

4.18 6.03 8.48 3.61

4.48 6.10 8.71 3.985.38 7.40 9.55 4.75

5.25 7.46 9.84 4.68

5.10 7.01 8.75 4.64

3.43 4.57 9.67 3.08

6.71 8.08 9.63 6.05

7.27 10.20 12.60 3.65

4.40 6.13 7.97 1.72

7.04 9.67 11.38 3.26

10.88 12.17 8.42 5.16

6.98 10.38 15.06 4.17

6.56 8.28 12.79 3.83

7.31 13.44 13.87 2.84

3.38 4.86 12.53 1.45

6.15 8.30 12.35 3.77

7.31 8.99 7.10 2.88

6.58 8.34 11.25 3.29

5.36 7.36 12.16 3.50

5.43 7.33 12.72 3.45

6.40 8.66 12.89 4.356.30 8.88 15.49 4.45

4.37 7.14 14.21 2.77

3.91 5.96 7.96 3.59

WFOR WEFOR WSOF WFOF


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7.81 9.36 9.61 7.06

4.94 6.59 14.23 4.24

7.05 9.42 9.84 6.36

8.77 9.77 8.67 8.00

7.40 8.26 8.85 6.75

1.83 2.56 11.99 1.61

7.58 8.13 8.92 6.91

8.06 9.08 8.37 7.38

8.27 9.32 10.10 7.43

6.30 7.62 5.91 5.93

4.68 5.87 12.09 4.11

10.30 11.25 9.29 9.33

9.18 16.91 13.09 7.97

40.87 56.27 5.83 2.58

46.92 50.57 3.96 2.9840.27 56.82 6.01 2.54

32.76 33.31 6.85 3.03

58.15 58.22 4.73 3.19

59.31 61.00 6.10 3.92

27.53 27.96 7.25 2.83

2.52 5.03 7.03 1.68

3.60 3.62 7.79 2.21

4.75 4.75 5.20 2.79

3.53 3.54 7.97 2.17

6.85 7.16 7.93 1.64

3.07 7.76 8.68 2.43

1.56 22.71 4.37 1.47

34.94 36.78 1.92 3.93

Calculo de Confiabilidad

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