TIPOS DE PRONOSTICOS

Prom MvilPronsticos : Mtodo Promedio Mvil

Larillos Lark en su planta de Chiclayo, desea establecer un pronstico de demanda para la siguiente semana de su producto estrella "Kin-Kog 24". A continuacin se presenta la demanda histrica del ventas de las 25 ltimas semanas (en millares). se pide:

1. Utilice el mtodo del promedio mvil para 3, 4 y 5 perodos y pronostique la SEM 262. Luego valide su modelo y seleccionar el criterio mas apropiado3. Haga una representacin grfica de su modelo.4. Haga una interpretacin de los resultados obtenidos

Demanda de los 25 ltimos semanas

SemanaDemanda Real13562383336543735399634273908338939510322114501231013410143441547016330174121835419372204302139522325234152440225373

Paso01Pronsticos : Mtodo Promedio Mvil


1. Utilice el mtodo del promedio mvil para 3, 4 y 5 perodos2. Luego valide su modelo y seleccionar el criterio mas apropiado3. Haga una representacin grfica de su modelo.4. Haga una interpretacin de los resultados obtenidos

Demanda de los 25 ltimos semanasN=3SemanaDemanda RealPronsticoError de PronsticoError AbsolutoMADError AcumuladoSeal de Restreo13562383336543735399634273908338939510322114501231013410143441547016330174121835419372204302139522325234152440225373

N=4SemanaDemanda RealPronsticoError de PronsticoError AbsolutoMADError AcumuladoSeal de Restreo13562383336543735399634273908338939510322114501231013410143441547016330174121835419372204302139522325234152440225373

N=5SemanaDemanda RealPronsticoError de PronsticoError AbsolutoMADError AcumuladoSeal de Restreo13562383336543735399634273908338939510322114501231013410143441547016330174121835419372204302139522325234152440225373




Demanda de los 25 ltimos semanasN=3SemanaDemanda RealPronsticoError de PronsticoError AbsolutoMADError AcumuladoSeal de Restreo13562383PROMEDIO DE 3 DATOS33654373368539937463423797390371833837793953571032237411450352123103891341036114344390154703551633040817412381183544041937236520430379213953852232539923415383244023782537338126397N=4SemanaDemanda RealPronsticoError de PronsticoError AbsolutoMADError AcumuladoSeal de Restreo135623833365PROMEDIO DE 4 DATOS4373539936963423807390370833837693953671032236611450361123103761341036914344373154703791633038417412389183543891937239220430367213953922232538823415381244023912537338426379

N=5SemanaDemanda RealPronsticoError de PronsticoError AbsolutoMADError AcumuladoSeal de Restreo135623833365PROMEDIO DE 5 DATOS4373539963423757390372833837493953681032237311450357123103791341036314344377154703671633039717412373183543931937238220430388213953802232539323415375244023872537339326382




Demanda de los 25 ltimos semanasN=3SemanaDemanda RealPronsticoError de PronsticoError AbsolutoMADError AcumuladoSeal de Restreo13562383Diferencia Dem. Real y Pronstico336543733685.00539937425.336342379-37.00739037118.678338377-39.00939535738.3310322374-52.331145035298.3312310389-79.001341036149.3314344390-46.0015470355115.3316330408-78.001741238130.6718354404-50.00193723656.672043037950.67213953859.6722325399-74.002341538331.672440237823.6725373381-7.6726397N=4SemanaDemanda RealPronsticoError de PronsticoError AbsolutoMADError AcumuladoSeal de Restreo1356238333654373539936929.756342380-38.00739037020.258338376-38.00939536727.7510322366-44.251145036188.7512310376-66.251341036940.7514344373-29.001547037991.5016330384-53.501741238923.5018354389-35.0019372392-19.502043036763.00213953923.0022325388-62.752341538134.502440239110.7525373384-11.2526379

N=5SemanaDemanda RealPronsticoError de PronsticoError AbsolutoMADError AcumuladoSeal de Restreo135623833365437353996342375-33.20739037217.608338374-35.80939536826.6010322373-50.801145035792.6012310379-69.001341036347.0014344377-33.4015470367102.8016330397-66.801741237339.2018354393-39.2019372382-10.002043038842.402139538015.4022325393-67.602341537539.802440238714.6025373393-20.4026382




Demanda de los 25 ltimos semanasN=3SemanaDemanda RealPronsticoError de PronsticoError AbsolutoMADError AcumuladoSeal de Restreo13562383Es el Valor Absoluto del Error del Pron.336543733685.005.00539937425.3325.336342379-37.0037.00739037118.6718.678338377-39.0039.00939535738.3338.3310322374-52.3352.331145035298.3398.3312310389-79.0079.001341036149.3349.3314344390-46.0046.0015470355115.33115.3316330408-78.0078.001741238130.6730.6718354404-50.0050.00193723656.676.672043037950.6750.67213953859.679.6722325399-74.0074.002341538331.6731.672440237823.6723.6725373381-7.677.67397N=4SemanaDemanda RealPronsticoError de PronsticoError AbsolutoMADError AcumuladoSeal de Restreo1356238333654373539936929.7529.756342380-38.0038.00739037020.2520.258338376-38.0038.00939536727.7527.7510322366-44.2544.251145036188.7588.7512310376-66.2566.251341036940.7540.7514344373-29.0029.001547037991.5091.5016330384-53.5053.501741238923.5023.5018354389-35.0035.0019372392-19.5019.502043036763.0063.00213953923.003.0022325388-62.7562.752341538134.5034.502440239110.7510.7525373384-11.2511.25379

N=5SemanaDemanda RealPronsticoError de PronsticoError AbsolutoMADError AcumuladoSeal de Restreo135623833365437353996342375-33.2033.20739037217.6017.608338374-35.8035.80939536826.6026.6010322373-50.8050.801145035792.6092.6012310379-69.0069.001341036347.0047.0014344377-33.4033.4015470367102.80102.8016330397-66.8066.801741237339.2039.2018354393-39.2039.2019372382-10.0010.002043038842.4042.402139538015.4015.4022325393-67.6067.602341537539.8039.802440238714.6014.6025373393-20.4020.40382




Demanda de los 25 ltimos semanasN=3SemanaDemanda RealPronsticoError de PronsticoError AbsolutoMADError AcumuladoSeal de Restreo13562383Es el Promedio de los Valores Absolutos336543733685.005.005.00539937425.3325.3315.176342379-37.0037.0022.44739037118.6718.6721.508338377-39.0039.0025.00939535738.3338.3327.2210322374-52.3352.3330.811145035298.3398.3339.2512310389-79.0079.0043.671341036149.3349.3344.2314344390-46.0046.0044.3915470355115.33115.3350.3116330408-78.0078.0052.441741238130.6730.6750.8818354404-50.0050.0050.82193723656.676.6748.062043037950.6750.6748.22213953859.679.6746.0722325399-74.0074.0047.542341538331.6731.6746.752440237823.6723.6745.6525373381-7.677.6743.92397N=4SemanaDemanda RealPronsticoError de PronsticoError AbsolutoMADError AcumuladoSeal de Restreo1356238333654373539936929.7529.7529.756342380-38.0038.0033.88739037020.2520.2529.338338376-38.0038.0031.50939536727.7527.7530.7510322366-44.2544.2533.001145036188.7588.7540.9612310376-66.2566.2544.131341036940.7540.7543.7514344373-29.0029.0042.281547037991.5091.5046.7516330384-53.5053.5047.311741238923.5023.5045.4818354389-35.0035.0044.7319372392-19.5019.5043.052043036763.0063.0044.30213953923.003.0041.8722325388-62.7562.7543.032341538134.5034.5042.582440239110.7510.7540.9925373384-11.2511.2539.57379

N=5SemanaDemanda RealPronsticoError de PronsticoError AbsolutoMADError AcumuladoSeal de Restreo135623833365437353996342375-33.2033.2033.20739037217.6017.6025.408338374-35.8035.8028.87939536826.6026.6028.3010322373-50.8050.8032.801145035792.6092.6042.7712310379-69.0069.0046.511341036347.0047.0046.5814344377-33.4033.4045.1115470367102.80102.8050.8816330397-66.8066.8052.331741237339.2039.2051.2318354393-39.2039.2050.3119372382-10.0010.0047.432043038842.4042.4047.092139538015.4015.4045.1122325393-67.6067.6046.442341537539.8039.8046.072440238714.6014.6044.4125373393-20.4020.4043.21382




Demanda de los 25 ltimos semanasN=3SemanaDemanda RealPronsticoError de PronsticoError AbsolutoMADError AcumuladoSeal de Restreo13562383Es la acumulacin de los Errores del Pronstico336543733685.005.005.005.00539937425.3325.3315.1730.336342379-37.0037.0022.44-6.67739037118.6718.6721.5012.008338377-39.0039.0025.00-27.00939535738.3338.3327.2211.3310322374-52.3352.3330.81-41.001145035298.3398.3339.2557.3312310389-79.0079.0043.67-21.671341036149.3349.3344.2327.6714344390-46.0046.0044.39-18.3315470355115.33115.3350.3197.0016330408-78.0078.0052.4419.001741238130.6730.6750.8849.6718354404-50.0050.0050.82-0.33193723656.676.6748.066.332043037950.6750.6748.2257.00213953859.679.6746.0766.6722325399-74.0074.0047.54-7.332341538331.6731.6746.7524.332440237823.6723.6745.6548.0025373381-7.677.6743.9240.33397N=4SemanaDemanda RealPronsticoError de PronsticoError AbsolutoMADError AcumuladoSeal de Restreo1356238333654373539936929.7529.7529.7529.756342380-38.0038.0033.88-8.25739037020.2520.2529.3312.008338376-38.0038.0031.50-26.00939536727.7527.7530.751.7510322366-44.2544.2533.00-42.501145036188.7588.7540.9646.2512310376-66.2566.2544.13-20.001341036940.7540.7543.7520.7514344373-29.0029.0042.28-8.251547037991.5091.5046.7583.2516330384-53.5053.5047.3129.751741238923.5023.5045.4853.2518354389-35.0035.0044.7318.2519372392-19.5019.5043.05-1.252043036763.0063.0044.3061.75213953923.003.0041.8764.7522325388-62.7562.7543.032.002341538134.5034.5042.5836.502440239110.7510.7540.9947.2525373384-11.2511.2539.5736.00379

N=5SemanaDemanda RealPronsticoError de PronsticoError AbsolutoMADError AcumuladoSeal de Restreo135623833365437353996342375-33.2033.2033.20-33.20739037217.6017.6025.40-15.608338374-35.8035.8028.87-51.40939536826.6026.6028.30-24.8010322373-50.8050.8032.80-75.601145035792.6092.6042.7717.0012310379-69.0069.0046.51-52.001341036347.0047.0046.58-5.0014344377-33.4033.4045.11-38.4015470367102.80102.8050.8864.4016330397-66.8066.8052.33-2.401741237339.2039.2051.2336.8018354393-39.2039.2050.31-2.4019372382-10.0010.0047.43-12.402043038842.4042.4047.0930.002139538015.4015.4045.1145.4022325393-67.6067.6046.44-22.202341537539.8039.8046.0717.602440238714.6014.6044.4132.2025373393-20.4020.4043.2111.80382




Demanda de los 25 ltimos semanasNOTANo Olvide que la seal de rastreo mide el grado de precisin del PronsticoN=3SemanaDemanda RealPronsticoError de PronsticoError AbsolutoMADError AcumuladoSeal de Restreo13562383H / G33654373368
Maybi: Maybi:promedio de los 3 primeros de demanda real5.005.005.005.001.00539937425.3325.3315.1730.332.006342379-37.0037.0022.44-6.67-0.30739037118.6718.6721.5012.000.568338377-39.0039.0025.00-27.00-1.08939535738.3338.3327.2211.330.4210322374-52.3352.3330.81-41.00-1.331145035298.3398.3339.2557.331.4612310389-79.0079.0043.67-21.67-0.501341036149.3349.3344.2327.670.6314344390-46.0046.0044.39-18.33-0.4115470355115.33115.3350.3197.001.9316330408-78.0078.0052.4419.000.361741238130.6730.6750.8849.670.9818354404-50.0050.0050.82-0.33-0.01193723656.676.6748.066.330.132043037950.6750.6748.2257.001.18213953859.679.6746.0766.671.4522325399-74.0074.0047.54-7.33-0.152341538331.6731.6746.7524.330.522440237823.6723.6745.6548.001.0525373381-7.677.6743.9240.330.92RESPUESTA3970.49

N=4SemanaDemanda RealPronsticoError de PronsticoError AbsolutoMADError AcumuladoSeal de Restreo1356238333654373539936929.7529.7529.7529.751.006342380-38.0038.0033.88-8.25-0.24739037020.2520.2529.3312.000.418338376-38.0038.0031.50-26.00-0.83939536727.7527.7530.751.750.0610322366-44.2544.2533.00-42.50-1.291145036188.7588.7540.9646.251.1312310376-66.2566.2544.13-20.00-0.451341036940.7540.7543.7520.750.4714344373-29.0029.0042.28-8.25-0.201547037991.5091.5046.7583.251.7816330384-53.5053.5047.3129.750.631741238923.5023.5045.4853.251.1718354389-35.0035.0044.7318.250.4119372392-19.5019.5043.05-1.25-0.032043036763.0063.0044.3061.751.39213953923.003.0041.8764.751.5522325388-62.7562.7543.032.000.052341538134.5034.5042.5836.500.862440239110.7510.7540.9947.251.1525373384-11.2511.2539.5736.000.913790.47Se escoge el de menor valor positivo

N=5SemanaDemanda RealPronsticoError de PronsticoError AbsolutoMADError AcumuladoSeal de Restreo135623833365437353996342375-33.2033.2033.20-33.20-1.00739037217.6017.6025.40-15.60-0.618338374-35.8035.8028.87-51.40-1.78939536826.6026.6028.30-24.80-0.8810322373-50.8050.8032.80-75.60-2.301145035792.6092.6042.7717.000.4012310379-69.0069.0046.51-52.00-1.121341036347.0047.0046.58-5.00-0.1114344377-33.4033.4045.11-38.40-0.8515470367102.80102.8050.8864.401.2716330397-66.8066.8052.33-2.40-0.051741237339.2039.2051.2336.800.7218354393-39.2039.2050.31-2.40-0.0519372382-10.0010.0047.43-12.40-0.262043038842.4042.4047.0930.000.642139538015.4015.4045.1145.401.0122325393-67.6067.6046.44-22.20-0.482341537539.8039.8046.0717.600.382440238714.6014.6044.4132.200.7325373393-20.4020.4043.2111.800.27382-0.20

numero de la MADDEBE ESTAR ENTRE +-3.75MAD

Promedio movil ponderadoPronsticos :Mtodo Promedio Ponderado

Ripley, para su lnea de electrodomesticos desea pronosticar la demanda de Televisores que vender el mes de Mayo del presente ao. A continuacin se presenta la demanda de los 20 perodos previos. Se solicita:

1. El pronosticar las ventas para el siguiente mes aplicar el promedio mvil ponderado de los ltimos 3 meses con factores 2, 3 y 4 respectivamente.

2. Valide su modelo y seleccionar el criterio mas apropiado3. Haga una representacin grfica de su modelo.4. Haga una interpretacin de los resultados obtenidos

Demanda de los 21 ltimos mesesMesDemanda RealPronsticoError de PronsticoError AbsolutoMADError AcumuladoSeal de Restreo201211,004201221,150201231,030201241,0571,064
Maybi: Maybi:(1004*2+1150*3+1030*4)/(2+3+4)-7.227.227.22-7.22-1.00201351,1391,06970.3370.3338.7863.111.63201369971,087-90.4490.4456.00-27.33-0.49201371,0921,05834.3334.3350.587.000.14201381,0331,071-37.7837.7848.02-30.78-0.64201391,0631,04518.3318.3343.07-12.44-0.292013101,0031,059-56.4456.4444.98-68.89-1.532013111,0141,030-15.6715.6741.32-84.56-2.052013121,0741,02152.7852.7842.59-31.78-0.752013131,0401,0381.781.7838.51-30.00-0.782013149591,046-86.5686.5642.88-116.56-2.722013151,1421,012130.44130.4450.1813.890.282013169581,058-100.33100.3354.03-86.44-1.602014171,0351,02015.4415.4451.28-71.00-1.382014181,1501,033116.89116.8955.6545.890.822014191,1291,06960.0060.0055.92105.891.892014209971,115-118.11118.1159.58-12.22-0.212014211,075FACTORES DE PONDERACIONANT-ANTERIOR2ANTERIOR3ULTIMO4SUMA9.00


Suavizado ExponencialPronsticos :Mtodo Suavizado ExponencialEn el puerto del Callao se descarga azcar procedente de pases latinoamericanos. El administrador de operaciones del puerto desea emplear el mtodo de suavizado exponencial para pronosticar el tonelaje de descarga para el siguiente perodo. Asume que el pronstico del primer perodo fue de 1075 tn. Se pide:. Valide su modelo y grafquelo.

1. El pronosticar la demanda de azcar para el mes 13, para ello utiliza valores de alfa de 0.10, 0.80, 0.50.


ALFA0.10Demanda de los 12 ltimos mesesMesDemanda RealPronsticoError de PronsticoError AbsolutoMADError AcumuladoSeal de Restreo1115510758080808012112810834545631252310951088884413334112510883737421694511401092484843217561170109773734829167123011041261266041778117011175353594708912151122939363563910114011319957572101111461132141453585111211851134515153637121311396.50

ALFA0.50MesDemanda RealPronsticoError de PronsticoError AbsolutoMADError AcumuladoSeal de Restreo111551075808080801211281115131347932310951122-272740672411251108171734832511401117232332107361170112842423414847123011498181402296811701190-202038210691215118035353724571011401197-57573918751111461169-2323381654121185115728283719251311713.91

ALFA 0.80MesDemanda RealPronsticoError de PronsticoError AbsolutoMADError AcumuladoSeal de Restreo111551075808080801211281139-111146692310951130-35354234141125110223233757251140112020203476261170113634343411037123011636767381775811701217-474740130391215117936363916641011401208-6868429821111461154-8839912121185114837373912831311782.54

Hoja2Resumen

Estadsticas de la regresinCoeficiente de correlacin mltiple0.9702037446Coeficiente de determinacin R^20.941295306R^2 ajustado0.9339572193Error tpico173.0300376796Observaciones10ANLISIS DE VARIANZAGrados de libertadSuma de cuadradosPromedio de los cuadradosFValor crtico de FRegresin13840484.848484853840484.84848485128.27530364370.0000033267Residuos8239515.15151515129939.3939393939Total94080000

CoeficientesError tpicoEstadstico tProbabilidadInferior 95%Superior 95%Inferior 95.0%Superior 95.0%Intercepcin913.3333333333118.20201847567.72688440610.0000560243640.75899016421185.9076765025640.75899016421185.9076765025Variable X 1215.757575757619.049980176411.3258687810.0000033267171.8282427316259.6869087835171.8282427316259.6869087835

Regresin LnealPronsticos :Mtodo De Regresin Lneal

EJERCICIO NUMERO 04: "Ventas de Televisores Panasonic - Viera HD"1.- Pronostique los meses 11, 12 y 13, utilizando Regresin Lneal Simple.2.- Valide el modelo, es decir determine y explique su significado, para un NC = 0.95:Coeficiente de correlacion ( R )Coeficiente de determinacion (r2)3.-Determine RANGOS de los pronsticos para los periodos 11, 12 y 13.4.- Grafique la Venta y el Pronstico obtenido

Mes (X)Ventas Mensual (Y)PronosticoI.C. Multiplicador Za/2 11,000 99%2.57621,300 95%1.9631,800 90%1.64542,000 85%1.43952,000 80%1.28262,000 72,200 1 r 1Coeficiente e correlacin82,600 92,900 103,200

Solucin1. GENERANDO EL PRONSTICO:MTODO 01:A913.3333333333B215.7575757576Mes (X)Ventas Mensual (Y)Pronosticor0.9702037446MTODO 02:11,000 1,129 Resumen21,300 1,345 31,800 1,561 Estadsticas de la regresin42,000 1,776 Coeficiente de correlacin mltiple0.970203744652,000 1,992 Coeficiente de determinacin R^20.94129530662,000 2,208 R^2 ajustado0.933957219372,200 2,424 Error tpico173.030037679682,600 2,639 Observaciones1092,900 2,855 103,200 3,071 ANLISIS DE VARIANZA113,287 Grados de libertadSuma de cuadradosPromedio de los cuadradosFValor crtico de F123,502 Regresin13840484.848484853840484.84848485128.27530364370.0000033267133,718 Residuos8239515.15151515129939.3939393939Total94080000

CoeficientesError tpicoEstadstico tProbabilidadInferior 95%Superior 95%Inferior 95.0%Superior 95.0%Intercepcin913.3333333333118.20201847567.72688440610.0000560243640.75899016421185.9076765025640.75899016421185.9076765025Variable X 1215.757575757619.049980176411.3258687810.0000033267171.8282427316259.6869087835171.8282427316259.6869087835

Y = A + BX

Y = 913.333 + 215.75X2. VALIDANDO EL PRONSTICOR =Coeficiente de correlacin97.02%Existe una buena relacin entre los datos X y YR2 =Coeficiente de determinacin94.13%El 94.13% de las ventas queda representado por la ecuacin de regresin.3) RANGOS DE LOS PRONOSTICOSa. Para el pronostico X=11; 3,287Desv Stand =173.03 unidPronostico =3,287 unidnum sigmas =2al 95% de confianzarangos limite superior 3,625.8PRONOSTICO + (DESV.STD*# DE SIGMAS)limite inferior2,947.5PRONOSTICO - (DESV.STD*# DE SIGMAS)b. Para el pronostico X=12; 3,502Desv Stand =173.03 unidPronostico =3,502 unidnum sigmas =2al 95% de confianzarangos limite superior 3,841.6PRONOSTICO + (DESV.STD*# DE SIGMAS)limite inferior3,163.3PRONOSTICO - (DESV.STD*# DE SIGMAS)c. Para el pronostico X=13; 3,718Desv Stand =173.03 unidPronostico =3,718 unidnum sigmas =2al 95% de confianzarangos limite superior 4,057.3PRONOSTICO + (DESV.STD*# DE SIGMAS)limite inferior3,379.0PRONOSTICO - (DESV.STD*# DE SIGMAS)4. GRAFICO DE VENTA Y PRONOSTICOhttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wLNlfOf1P-0

Y = A +/- BX

Indices EstacionalesPronsticos :Mtodo Regresin Lineal

1.- Pronostique el 2010 Utilizando el mtodo de Estacional, considerando un nivel de confianza de 95%.2.- Desarrolle una ecuacin de regresin lineal simple.3.- Calcular los indices estacionales.4.- Pronostique estacionalmente todos los meses del 2010.5.- Grafique la Demanda, la Demanda desestacinalizada, El Pronostico Desestacionalizado y el Pronostico Estacionalizado

AoEneroFebreroMarzoAbrilMayoJunioJulioAgostoSeptiembreOctubreNoviembreDiciembre2005742697776898103011651216121612081131971783200674170077493210991290131913491341129610669012007896793885105512041303143614361473145311701023200895186193811091274148615551555160416001403120920091030103211261285146816111608160815281420111910132010

Pomedio Mensual872816.6899.81055.8121513711426.81432.81430.813801145.8985.8

Promedio Total1169.35

Ind. Estacional0.74571343050.69833668280.7694873220.90289477061.03903878221.17244623081.2201650491.22529610471.22358575281.18014281440.97986060630.8430324539ABA/BYXAnoDemanda Indice desestac.Dem. DesestacionalizadaPronostico Desestacionalizado17420.7457134305995.0202981651952.0541011403Luego: Hallamos Y = A + B*X26970.6983366828998.0859049718959.4200638135Resumen37760.7694873221008.4636585908966.786026486748980.9028947706994.5788028036974.1519891599Estadsticas de la regresin510301.0390387822991.3008230453981.5179518332Coeficiente de correlacin mltiple0.8751760255611651.1724462308993.6489788476988.8839145064Coeficiente de determinacin R^20.7659330756712161.220165049996.5864872442996.2498771796R^2 ajustado0.761897439812161.2252961047992.41317699611003.6158398528Error tpico71.7242564314912081.2235857528987.26223091981010.981802526Observaciones601011311.1801428144958.35858695651018.3477651992119710.9798606063990.95727875721025.7137278724ANLISIS DE VARIANZA127830.8430324539928.78986609861033.0796905456Grados de libertadSuma de cuadradosPromedio de los cuadradosFValor crtico de F137410.7457134305993.67930045871040.4456532188Regresin1976362.02282559976362.02282559189.79237887040147000.69833668281002.38182708791047.811615892Residuos58298373.3997167445144.3689606335157740.7694873221005.86452545011055.1775785652Total591274735.42254233169320.90289477061032.23546126161062.54354123851710991.03903878221057.70835390951069.9095039117CoeficientesError tpicoEstadstico tProbabilidadInferior 95%Superior 95%Inferior 95.0%Superior 95.0%1812901.17244623081100.26367614881077.2754665849Intercepcin944.688138467118.753058420850.37515040320907.1498138477982.2264630865907.1498138477982.22646308651913191.2201650491081.00129660781084.6414292581Variable X 17.36596267320.53467530913.776515483606.29569376758.4362315796.29569376758.4362315792013491.22529610471100.958368231092.00739193132113411.22358575281095.9591487281099.3733546045Entonces tenemos:2212961.18014281441098.1721739131106.7393172777Y = 944.68814 + 7.3659627*X2310660.97986060631087.909844651114.1052799509249010.84303245391068.76075268821121.4712426241258960.74571343051201.53394495411128.8372052974267930.69833668281135.55541268681136.2031679706278850.7694873221150.11641475881143.56913064382810550.90289477061168.46396097751150.9350933172912041.03903878221158.76329218111158.30105599023013031.17244623081111.35160466811165.66701866343114361.2201650491176.88996355481173.03298133663214361.22529610471171.96161362371180.39894400983314731.22358575281203.83879647751187.7649066833414531.18014281441231.20692028981195.13086935623511700.97986060631194.04739046951202.49683202943610230.84303245391213.47641509431209.8627947026379510.74571343051275.28881880731217.2287573759388610.69833668281232.92964731821224.5947200491399380.7694873221218.99344298731231.96068272234011090.90289477061228.2715949991239.32664539554112741.03903878221226.13325102881246.69260806874214861.17244623081267.43552151711254.05857074194315551.2201650491274.41775301371261.42453341514415551.22529610471269.0809952541268.79049608834516041.22358575281310.90117416831276.15645876154616001.18014281441355.7681159421283.52242143484714030.97986060631431.83631523831290.8883841084812090.84303245391434.1084905661298.25434678124910300.74571343051381.22763761471305.62030945445010320.69833668281477.79720793531312.98627212765111260.7694873221463.31195821291320.35223480085212850.90289477061423.20017995831327.7181974745314681.03903878221412.84427983541335.08416014725416111.17244623081374.05021881841342.45012282045516081.2201650491317.85449957951349.81608549365616081.22529610471312.33584589621357.18204816685715281.22358575281248.78864970651364.548010845814201.18014281441203.24420289861371.91397351335911190.97986060631141.9991708851379.27993618656010130.84303245391201.61447555281386.6458988597610.74571343051394.0118615329620.69833668281401.3778242061630.7694873221408.7437868793640.90289477061416.1097495525651.03903878221423.4757122257661.17244623081430.8416748989671.2201650491438.2076375722681.22529610471445.5736002454691.22358575281452.9395629186701.18014281441460.3055255918710.97986060631467.671488265720.84303245391475.0374509382Finalmente Estacionalizando la Demanda Indice desestac.Pronostico DesestacionalizadoPronostico Estacionalizado610.74571343051394.01186153291039.5333674748620.69833668281401.3778242061978.633541067630.7694873221408.74378687931084.0104839732640.90289477061416.10974955251278.5980874653651.03903878221423.47571222571479.0464705642661.17244623081430.84167489891677.584928624671.2201650491438.20763757221754.8506925112681.22529610471445.57360024541771.2557013995691.22358575281452.93956291861777.796148821701.18014281441460.30552559181723.3690728325710.97986060631467.6714882651438.1134743695720.84303245391475.03745093821243.5044418992

Prctica01PRCTICA: 02 "PRONOSTICOS"

En el puerto del Callao se descarga azcar procedente de pases latinoamericanos (toneladas). El administrador de operaciones del puerto desea emplear el mtodo "Promedio Mvil" y "Promedio Mvil Ponderado" para pronosticar el tonelaje de descarga para el siguiente perodo. Se pide:.

PROMEDIO MVIL1. Utilice el mtodo del promedio mvil para 3, 4 y 5 perodos2. Luego valide su modelo y seleccionar el criterio mas apropiado3. Haga una representacin grfica de su modelo.4. Haga una interpretacin de los resultados obtenidos

PROMEDIO MVIL PONDERADO1. El pronosticar las ventas para el siguiente mes aplicar el promedio mvil ponderado de los ltimos 3 meses con factores 2, 3 y 4 respectivamente.


PROMEDIO MVIL

Demanda de los 19 ltimos mesesN=3MesDemanda RealPronsticoError de PronsticoError AbsolutoMADError AcumuladoSeal de Restreo111552112831095411251,126-1.001.001.00-1.00-1.00511401,11624.0024.0012.5023.001.84611701,12050.0050.0025.0073.002.92711951,14550.0050.0031.25123.003.94811701,1681.671.6725.33124.674.92911851,1786.676.6722.22131.335.91101,1401,183-43.3343.3325.2488.003.49111,1461,165-19.0019.0024.4669.002.82121,1851,15728.0028.0024.8597.003.90131,0501,157-107.00107.0033.07-10.00-0.30141,1501,12723.0023.0032.1513.000.40151,1051,128-23.3323.3331.42-10.33-0.33161,1101,1028.338.3329.64-2.00-0.07171,1381,12216.3316.3328.6914.330.50181,1801,11862.3362.3330.9376.672.48191,1901,14347.3347.3331.96124.003.88201,1692.21

N=4SemanaDemanda RealPronsticoError de PronsticoError AbsolutoMADError AcumuladoSeal de Restreo11155211283109541125511401,12614.2514.2514.2514.251.00611701,12248.0048.0031.1362.252.00711951,13362.5062.5041.58124.753.00811701,15812.5012.5034.31137.254.00911851,16916.2516.2530.70153.505.00101,1401,180-40.0040.0032.25113.503.52111,1461,173-26.5026.5031.4387.002.77121,1851,16024.7524.7530.59111.753.65131,0501,164-114.00114.0039.86-2.25-0.06141,1501,13019.7519.7537.8517.500.46151,1051,133-27.7527.7536.93-10.25-0.28161,1101,123-12.5012.5034.90-22.75-0.65171,1381,10434.2534.2534.8511.500.33181,1801,12654.2554.2536.2365.751.81191,1901,13356.7556.7537.60122.503.26201,1551.99N=5SemanaDemanda RealPronsticoError de PronsticoError AbsolutoMADError AcumuladoSeal de Restreo1115521128310954112551140611701,12941.4041.4041.4041.401.00711951,13263.4063.4052.40104.802.00811701,14525.0025.0043.27129.803.00911851,16025.0025.0038.70154.804.00101,1401,172-32.0032.0037.36122.803.29111,1461,172-26.0026.0035.4796.802.73121,1851,16717.8017.8032.94114.603.48131,0501,165-115.20115.2043.23-0.60-0.01141,1501,1418.808.8039.408.200.21151,1051,134-29.2029.2038.38-21.00-0.55161,1101,127-17.2017.2036.45-38.20-1.05171,1381,12018.0018.0034.92-20.20-0.58181,1801,11169.4069.4037.5749.201.31191,1901,13753.4053.4038.70102.602.65RESPUESTA:El pronstico de descarga de tonelaje de azcar es ms factible en el perodo N=5 201,145-1144.601144.60112.43-1042.00-9.27ya que el valor promedio positivo es 0.81.211,1550.81PROMEDIO MVIL PONDERADOMesDemanda RealPronsticoError de PronsticoError AbsolutoMADError AcumuladoSeal de Restreo111552112831095411251,1195.675.675.675.671.00511401,11624.3324.3315.0030.002.00611701,12545.0045.0025.0075.003.00711951,15045.0045.0030.00120.004.00811701,174-4.444.4424.89115.564.64911851,1786.676.6721.85122.225.59101,1401,182-42.2242.2224.7680.003.23111,1461,162-15.6715.6723.6364.332.72121,1851,15332.3332.3324.5996.673.93131,0501,162-112.00112.0033.33-15.33-0.46141,1501,11633.6733.6733.3618.330.55151,1051,124-19.4419.4432.20-1.11-0.03161,1101,1082.222.2229.901.110.04171,1381,11720.7820.7829.2521.890.75181,1801,12158.6758.6731.2180.562.58191,1901,15039.5639.5631.73120.113.79201,175

FACTORES DE PONDERACIONANT-ANTERIOR2ANTERIOR3ULTIMO4SUMA9.00


Prctica021.- Pronostique los aos 10, 11 y 12, utilizando Regresin Lneal Simple.2.- Valide el modelo, es decir determine y explique su significado, para un NC = 0.95:Coeficiente de correlacion ( R )Coeficiente de determinacion (r2)3.-Determine RANGOS de los pronsticos para los periodos 11, 12 y 13.4.- Grafique la Venta y el Pronstico obtenidoAONACIMIENTOS156525903583459756156611761086239633

Solucin1. GENERANDO EL PRONSTICO:MTODO 01:A566.4166666667B7.3166666667AONACIMIENTOSVENTAS ANUALESr0.9437914396MTODO 02:15651,129 Resumen25901,345 35831,561 Estadsticas de la regresin45971,776 Coeficiente de correlacin mltiple0.970203744656151,992 Coeficiente de determinacin R^20.94129530666112,208 R^2 ajustado0.933957219376102,424 Error tpico173.030037679686232,639 Observaciones1096332,855 103,071 ANLISIS DE VARIANZA113,287 Grados de libertadSuma de cuadradosPromedio de los cuadradosFValor crtico de F123,502 Regresin13840484.848484853840484.84848485128.27530364370.0000033267Residuos8239515.15151515129939.3939393939Total94080000

CoeficientesError tpicoEstadstico tProbabilidadInferior 95%Superior 95%Inferior 95.0%Intercepcin913.3333333333118.20201847567.72688440610.0000560243640.75899016421185.9076765025640.7589901642Variable X 1215.757575757619.049980176411.3258687810.0000033267171.8282427316259.6869087835171.8282427316

Y = A + BX

Y = 913.333 + 215.75X2. VALIDANDO EL PRONSTICOR =Coeficiente de correlacinR2 =Coeficiente de determinacin97.02%Existe una buena relacin entre los datos X y Y94.13%El 94.13% de las ventas queda representado por la ecuacin de regresin.

3) RANGOS DE LOS PRONOSTICOSa. Para el pronostico X=11; 3,287Desv Stand =Pronostico =173.03 unidnum sigmas =3,071 unid2al 95% de confianzarangos limite superior limite inferior3,417.0PRONOSTICO + (DESV.STD*# DE SIGMAS)2,724.8PRONOSTICO - (DESV.STD*# DE SIGMAS)b. Para el pronostico X=12; 3,502Desv Stand =Pronostico =173.03 unidnum sigmas =3,287 unid2al 95% de confianzarangos limite superior limite inferior3,632.7PRONOSTICO + (DESV.STD*# DE SIGMAS)2,940.6PRONOSTICO - (DESV.STD*# DE SIGMAS)c. Para el pronostico X=13; 3,718Desv Stand =Pronostico =173.03 unidnum sigmas =3,502 unid2al 95% de confianzarangos limite superior limite inferior3,848.5PRONOSTICO + (DESV.STD*# DE SIGMAS)3,156.4PRONOSTICO - (DESV.STD*# DE SIGMAS)

4. GRAFICO DE VENTA Y PRONOSTICO

TIPOS DE PRONOSTICOS

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