Pronosticos Sed (1)

ACTIVIDAD PRONOSTICOS SED

GLADYS CECILIA GONZÁLEZ GONZÁLEZ

ASESOR: MANUEL ALBERTO RICO PINTO

FUNDACIÓN UNIVERSITARIA PANAMERICANA FACULTAD DE CIENCIAS EMPRESARIALES

ADMINISTRACIÓN DE EMPRESASBOGOTÁ, COLOMBIA

2016

MINIMOS CUADRADOS

Mes Demandax y X*Y x21 325 325 12 385 770 43 560 1680 94 665 2660 165 770 3850 256 875 5250 367 980 6860 498 1085 8680 649 1120 10080 8110 1295 12950 10011 1400 15400 12112 1505 18060 14413 1610 20930 16914 1715 24010 19615 1820 27300 22516 2010 32160 25617 2030 34510 28918 2135 38430 32419 2525 47975 36120 2345 46900 40021 2450 51450 44122 2555 56210 48423 2660 61180 52924 2815 67560 57625 2870 71750 62526 2975 77350 67627 3250 87750 72928 3185 89180 78429 3290 95410 84130 3395 101850 90031 3500 108500 96132 3650 116800 102433 3710 122430 108934 3875 131750 115635 4015 140525 122536 4025 144900 129637 4230 156510 136938 4235 160930 144439 4360 170040 152140 4620 184800 160041 4550 186550 1681

42 4655 195510 176443 4760 204680 184944 4865 214060 193645 5025 226125 202546 5075 233450 211647 5180 243460 220948 5225 250800 230449 5390 264110 240150 5520 276000 250051 5825 297075 260152 5705 296660 270453 5810 307930 280954 5915 319410 291655 6020 331100 302556 6125 343000 313657 6850 390450 324958 6335 367430 336459 6785 400315 348160 6925 415500 3600

1830 209360 8319270 73810

60a 107.46b 211.72

PRONOSTICO SED

Mes Demanda Alfa 0.7x y St Gt1 325 211.72 107.462 385 323.26 110.313 560 399.57 86.514 665 537.83 122.735 770 663.67 124.916 875 775.57 115.817 980 879.91 107.788 1085 982.31 104.019 1120 1085.40 103.3610 1295 1140.63 69.6711 1400 1269.59 111.1712 1505 1394.23 120.6013 1610 1507.95 115.7814 1715 1614.12 109.0515 1820 1717.45 105.05

16 2010 1820.75 103.8217 2030 1984.37 145.6818 2135 2060.02 96.6619 2525 2141.50 86.0420 2345 2435.76 231.7921 2450 2441.77 73.7422 2555 2469.65 41.6423 2660 2541.89 63.0624 2815 2643.48 90.0325 2870 2790.56 129.9626 2975 2885.15 105.2127 3250 2979.61 97.6828 3185 3198.19 182.3129 3290 3243.65 86.5230 3395 3302.05 66.8431 3500 3387.17 79.6332 3650 3490.04 95.9033 3710 3630.78 127.2934 3875 3724.42 103.7335 4015 3860.95 126.6936 4025 4006.79 140.1037 4230 4061.57 80.3738 4235 4203.58 123.5239 4360 4262.63 78.3940 4620 4354.31 87.6941 4550 4566.60 174.9142 4655 4607.45 81.0743 4760 4665.06 64.6444 4865 4750.91 79.4945 5025 4854.62 96.4446 5075 5002.82 132.6747 5180 5093.15 103.0348 5225 5184.85 95.1049 5390 5241.49 68.1750 5520 5365.90 107.5451 5825 5506.03 130.3652 5705 5768.42 222.7853 5810 5790.86 82.5454 5915 5829.02 51.4855 6020 5904.65 68.3856 6125 6005.91 91.4057 6850 6116.69 104.9758 6335 6661.50 412.8559 6785 6556.81 50.5760 6925 6731.71 137.61

MINIMOS CUADRADOS

Y=aX+b

3348900

107.46 211.72107.46 211.72

PRONOSTICO SED

Beta 0.7Ft E SED �St = aD t-1+ (1- a) (St-1 + Gt-1)

319.19 5.81 �Gt = b(St - St-1) + (1- b) Gt-1433.57 48.57 Pronóstico: Ft, t+t = S t + t Gt486.08 73.92660.56 4.44788.58 18.58891.38 16.38987.69 7.69

1086.32 1.321188.76 68.761210.30 84.701380.76 19.241514.83 9.831623.73 13.731723.17 8.171822.50 2.50

1924.57 85.432130.05 100.052156.67 21.672227.54 297.462667.55 322.552515.51 65.512511.29 43.712604.95 55.052733.52 81.482920.52 50.522990.36 15.363077.29 172.713380.50 195.503330.16 40.163368.88 26.123466.80 33.203585.94 64.063758.07 48.073828.16 46.843987.64 27.364146.89 121.894141.94 88.064327.10 92.104341.02 18.984442.00 178.004741.51 191.514688.52 33.524729.70 30.304830.40 34.604951.06 73.945135.49 60.495196.18 16.185279.96 54.965309.66 80.345473.44 46.565636.39 188.615991.19 286.195873.40 63.405880.50 34.505973.03 46.976097.31 27.696221.66 628.347074.35 739.356607.38 177.626869.32 55.68

MAD 92.44

Pronosticos Sed (1)

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